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Background: The PROPKD score has been proposed to stratify the risk of progression to end-stage renal disease in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) subjects. We aimed to assess its prognostic value in a genotyped subgroup of subjects from the Tolvaptan Phase 3 Efficacy and Safety Study in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease (TEMPO3/4) trial. Methods: In the post hoc analysis, PKD1 and PKD2 were screened in 770 subjects and the PROPKD score was calculated in mutation-positive subjects (male: 1 point; hypertension <35 years: 2 points; first urologic event <35 years: 2 points; nontruncating PKD1 mutation: 2 points; truncating PKD1 mutation: 4 points). Subjects were classified into low-risk (LR; 0-3 points), intermediate-risk (IR; 4-6 points) and high-risk (HR; 7-9 points) groups. Results: The PROPKD score was calculated in 749 subjects (LR = 132, IR = 344 and HR = 273); age was inversely related to risk (LR = 43.6 years, IR = 39.5 years, HR = 36.2 years; P < 0.001). Subjects from the HR group had significantly higher height-adjusted total kidney volume (TKV) and rates of TKV growth. While baseline renal function was similar across all risk groups, the rate of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline significantly increased from LR to HR in the placebo group. Tolvaptan treatment effectiveness to reduce TKV growth was similar in all three risk categories. While tolvaptan significantly slowed eGFR decline in the IR (tolvaptan = -2.34 versus placebo = -3.33 mL/min/1.73 m2/year; P = 0.008) and HR groups (tolvaptan = -2.74 versus placebo = -3.94 mL/min/1.73 m2/year; P = 0.002), there was no difference in the LR group (tolvaptan = -2.35 versus placebo = -2.50 mL/min/1.73 m2/year; P = 0.72). Excluding the LR subjects from the analysis improved the apparent treatment effect of tolvaptan on eGFR decline. Conclusion: This study confirms the prognostic value of the PROPKD score and suggests that it could reduce costs and enhance endpo

Background: Autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is characterized by multitudes of expanding renal cysts associated with mononuclear interstitial infiltrates. Monocyte chemotactic protein-1 is produced in the kidneys and excreted in the urine (uMCP1) of these patients in increased amounts. In the TEMPO 3:4 trial, tolvaptan slowed the rate of increase in total kidney volume (TKV) and the rate of decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). In a sub-analysis, we determined whether tolvaptan administration for up to 3 years changed the urinary excretion of MCP-1 referenced to creatinine in 869 treated subjects compared with 438 placebo subjects. Methods: Treatment group differences of uMCP1 at 0.75, 12, 24 and 36 months were evaluated by ANCOVA with factor of treatment and covariate baseline. Results: At baseline, mean uMCP1 was 429 ± 224 pg/mg in the tolvaptan and 434 ± 233 pg/mg in the placebo groups, ∼4-fold greater than normal. Log uMCP1 associated positively with log TKV ( r = 0.2645, P < 0.0001) and negatively with eGFR ( r = -0.1555 P < 0.0001) and fasting urine osmolality ( r = -0.1933, P < 0.0001). Tolvaptan reduced uMCP1 13.8 ± 4.4% (P < 0.0001) below placebo-treated subjects at 24 months and 14.4 ± 3.7% (P < 0.0001) at 36 months, and to the same extent in females and males. The effect of tolvaptan on uMCP1 excretion at 36 months extended across CKD Stage 1 (11.1 ± 6.4%, P = 0.0595), CKD 2 (13.9 ± 5.4%, P = 0.0050) and CKD 3 (21.4 ± 8.0%, P = 0.0020). Conclusion: Tolvaptan, administered for 3 years to patients with ADPKD, caused a sustained reduction in the urinary excretion of MCP-1 relative to placebo.