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Adaptive responses are probably the most effective long-term responses of populations to climate change, but they require sufficient evolutionary potential upon which selection can act. This requires high genetic variance for the traits under selection and low antagonizing genetic covariances between the different traits. Evolutionary potential estimates are still scarce for long-lived, clonal plants, although these species are predicted to dominate the landscape with climate change. We studied the evolutionary potential of a perennial grass, Festuca rubra, in western Norway, in two controlled environments corresponding to extreme environments in natural populations: cold-dry and warm-wet, the latter being consistent with the climatic predictions for the country. We estimated genetic variances, covariances, selection gradients and response to selection for a wide range of growth, resource acquisition and physiological traits, and compared their estimates between the environments. We showed that the evolutionary potential of F. rubra is high in both environments, and genetic covariances define one main direction along which selection can act with relatively few constraints to selection. The observed response to selection at present is not sufficient to produce genotypes adapted to the predicted climate change under a simple, space for time substitution model. However, the current populations contain genotypes which are pre-adapted to the new climate, especially for growth and resource acquisition traits. Overall, these results suggest that the present populations of the long-lived clonal plant may have sufficient evolutionary potential to withstand long-term climate changes through adaptive responses., (© 2019 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2019 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.)

Background and Aims: Many angiosperms exhibit cleistogamy, the production of both cleistogamous flowers (CL), which remain closed and obligately self-pollinated, and chasmogamous flowers (CH), which are potentially open-pollinated. The CH proportion can be plastic. Plasticity is adaptive if environmental changes can be reliably assessed and responded to with an appropriate phenotype and if plastic genotypes have higher fitness in variable environments than non-plastic ones., Methods: We studied the plastic response of four natural populations from northern and southern France of an annual cleistogamous plant, Lamium amplexicaule, to predictable seasonal variation. Plants were grown in a semi-controlled environment in spring and in autumn. We assessed the variation in flower number, phenology and cleistogamy-related traits, which were all plastic with respect to season. The CH proportion was higher in spring than in autumn in all four populations., Key Results: We showed significant stabilizing selection for cleistogamy traits, with higher optimal CH proportions and more pronounced stabilizing selection in spring than in autumn. Observed CH proportions were close to the predicted optimal CH proportions in each season except in autumn for southern populations, which do not experience the autumnal growing season in nature., Conclusions: These results are consistent with adaptive plasticity across seasons of cleistogamy in L. amplexicaule.We propose that adaptive plasticity of cleistogamy could be driven by pollination environment variation, with CL flowers providing reproductive assurance when pollinators are scarce and CH flowers reducing the inbreeding depression in offspring when pollinators are abundant., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)