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Objective: To develop and validate algorithms for predicting 30-day fatal and nonfatal opioid-related overdose using statewide data sources including prescription drug monitoring program data, Hospital Discharge Data System data, and Tennessee (TN) vital records. Current overdose prevention efforts in TN rely on descriptive and retrospective analyses without prognostication., Materials and Methods: Study data included 3 041 668 TN patients with 71 479 191 controlled substance prescriptions from 2012 to 2017. Statewide data and socioeconomic indicators were used to train, ensemble, and calibrate 10 nonparametric "weak learner" models. Validation was performed using area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), area under the precision recall curve, risk concentration, and Spiegelhalter z-test statistic., Results: Within 30 days, 2574 fatal overdoses occurred after 4912 prescriptions (0.0069%) and 8455 nonfatal overdoses occurred after 19 460 prescriptions (0.027%). Discrimination and calibration improved after ensembling (AUROC: 0.79-0.83; Spiegelhalter P value: 0-.12). Risk concentration captured 47-52% of cases in the top quantiles of predicted probabilities., Discussion: Partitioning and ensembling enabled all study data to be used given computational limits and helped mediate case imbalance. Predicting risk at the prescription level can aggregate risk to the patient, provider, pharmacy, county, and regional levels. Implementing these models into Tennessee Department of Health systems might enable more granular risk quantification. Prospective validation with more recent data is needed., Conclusion: Predicting opioid-related overdose risk at statewide scales remains difficult and models like these, which required a partnership between an academic institution and state health agency to develop, may complement traditional epidemiological methods of risk identification and inform public health decisions., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.)

Objective: Patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures are commonly used to capture patient experience with dysphagia and to evaluate treatment effectiveness. Inappropriate application can lead to distorted results in clinical studies. A systematic review of the literature on dysphagia-related PRO measures was performed to (1) identify all currently available measures and (2) to evaluate each for the presence of important measurement properties that would affect their applicability., Design: MEDLINE via the PubMed interface, the Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and the Health and Psychosocial Instrument database were searched using relevant vocabulary terms and key terms related to PRO measures and dysphagia. Three independent investigators performed abstract and full text reviews. Each study meeting criteria was evaluated using an 18-item checklist developed a priori that assessed multiple domains: (1) conceptual model, (2) content validity, (3) reliability, (4) construct validity, (6) scoring and interpretation, and (7) burden and presentation., Results: Of 4950 abstracts reviewed, a total of 34 dysphagia-related PRO measures (publication year 1987-2014) met criteria for extraction and analysis. Several PRO measures were of high quality (MADS for achalasia, SWAL-QOL and SSQ for oropharyngeal dysphagia, PROMIS-GI for general dysphagia, EORTC-QLQ-OG25 for esophageal cancer, ROMP-swallowing for Parkinson's Disease, DSQ-EoE for eosinophilic esophagitis, and SOAL for total laryngectomy-related dysphagia). In all, 17 met at least one criterion per domain. Thematic deficiencies in current measures were evident including: (1) direct patient involvement in content development, (2) empirically justified dimensionality, (3) demonstrable responsiveness to change, (4) plan for interpreting missing responses, and (5) literacy level assessment., Conclusion: This is the first comprehensive systematic review assessing developmental properties of all available dysphagia-related PRO measures. We identified several instruments with robust measurement properties in multiple diseases including achalasia, oropharyngeal dysphagia, post-surgical dysphagia, esophageal cancer, and dysphagia related to neurological diseases. Findings herein can assist clinicians and researchers in making more informed decisions in selecting the most fundamentally sound PRO measure for a given clinical, research, or quality initiative., (© The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)