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Aims: To identify robust circulating predictors for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) using classical regressions and machine learning (ML) techniques within a broad spectrum of candidate variables., Methods and Results: In pooled European community cohorts (n = 42 280 individuals), 14 routinely available biomarkers mirroring distinct pathophysiological pathways including lipids, inflammation, renal, and myocardium-specific markers (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], high-sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) were examined in relation to incident AF using Cox regressions and distinct ML methods. Of 42 280 individuals (21 843 women [51.7%]; median [interquartile range, IQR] age, 52.2 [42.7, 62.0] years), 1496 (3.5%) developed AF during a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. In multivariable-adjusted Cox-regression analysis, NT-proBNP was the strongest circulating predictor of incident AF [hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.93 (95% CI, 1.82-2.04); P < 0.001]. Further, hsTnI [HR per SD, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13-1.22); P < 0.001], cystatin C [HR per SD, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.10-1.23); P < 0.001], and C-reactive protein [HR per SD, 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02-1.14); P = 0.012] correlated positively with incident AF. Applying various ML techniques, a high inter-method consistency of selected candidate variables was observed. NT-proBNP was identified as the blood-based marker with the highest predictive value for incident AF. Relevant clinical predictors were age, the use of antihypertensive medication, and body mass index., Conclusion: Using different variable selection procedures including ML methods, NT-proBNP consistently remained the strongest blood-based predictor of incident AF and ranked before classical cardiovascular risk factors. The clinical benefit of these findings for identifying at-risk individuals for targeted AF screening needs to be elucidated and tested prospectively., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: R.B.S. has received lecture fees and advisory board fees from BMS/Pfizer outside the submitted work. B.T. receives project-related funding by the German Heart Foundation and Ernst und Berta Grimmke-Stiftung unrelated to the submitted work. V.S. reports an honorarium for consulting from Sanofi. He also has research collaboration with Bayer Ltd (all unrelated to the present study). T.N. reports speaker honoraria from Servier outside the submitted work. S.S. received honoraria from Actelion (now Janssen) outside the submitted work. Furthermore, S.S. is a member of the advisory board of Actelion (now Janssen) and of Novartis. I.K. has received research grants by the Heart Foundation in Northern Sweden and Arnerska Research Foundation, both unrelated to the present study. S.B. reports honoraria to his institution from Abbott, Bayer, Siemens, Singulex, and Roche, outside the submitted work. S.B. also reports personal fees from Abbott, Bayer, Siemens, Novartis, Thermo Fisher, Astra Zeneca, AMGEN, Medtronic, and Pfizer. S.Co. has received honoraria for lecturing from The Dutch Beer Institute foundation—The Brewers of Europe, outside the submitted work. S.Co. and A.D.C. are the PI and Co-PI, respectively, of a research grant from ERAB (the European Foundation for Alcohol Research, EA 1767, completed in January 2020), which is unrelated to the present study. G.d.G. is a member of the International Scientific Forum on Alcohol Research. The members of the Forum receive no financial support. The Forum itself receives no support from any other organization or company in the alcoholic beverage industry. G.d.G. was also a consultant to the Web Newsletter of Assobirra, the Italian Association of the Beer and Malt Industries and is a corresponding member of the non-profit Accademia Italiana della Vite e del Vino. G.d.G. reports personal fees for given lectures at the 8th European Beer and Health Symposium (2017), Beer and Health Initiative (The Dutch Beer Institute Foundation—The Brewers of Europe), outside the submitted work. All remaining authors have declared no conflicts of interest., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Aims: To explore sex-specific time trends in atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence and to estimate the impact of changes in risk factor levels using individual participant-level data from the population-based Tromsø Study 1994-2016., Methods and Results: A total of 14 818 women and 13 225 men aged 25 years or older without AF were enrolled in the Tromsø Study between 1994 and 2008 and followed up for incident AF throughout 2016. Poisson regression was used for statistical analyses. During follow-up, age-adjusted AF incidence rates in women decreased from 1.19 to 0.71 per 1000 person-years. In men, AF incidence increased from 1.18 to 2.82 per 1000 person-years in 2004, and then declined to 1.94 per 1000 person-years in 2016. Changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), body mass index (BMI), physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption together accounted for 10.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): -2.4 to 28.6] of the AF incidence decline in women and for 44.7% (95% CI: 19.2; 100.0) of the AF incidence increase in men. Reduction in SBP and DBP had the largest contribution to the decrease in AF incidence in women. Increase in BMI had the largest contribution to the increase in AF incidence in men., Conclusion: In the population-based Tromsø Study 1994-2016, AF incidence decreased in women and increased following a reverse U-shape in men. Individual changes in SBP and DBP in women and individual changes in BMI in men were the most important risk factors contributing to the AF incidence trends., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: None declared., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Aims: There is inconsistent evidence on the relation of alcohol intake with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), in particular at lower doses. We assessed the association between alcohol consumption, biomarkers, and incident AF across the spectrum of alcohol intake in European cohorts., Methods and Results: In a community-based pooled cohort, we followed 107 845 individuals for the association between alcohol consumption, including types of alcohol and drinking patterns, and incident AF. We collected information on classical cardiovascular risk factors and incident heart failure (HF) and measured the biomarkers N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin I. The median age of individuals was 47.8 years, 48.3% were men. The median alcohol consumption was 3 g/day. N = 5854 individuals developed AF (median follow-up time: 13.9 years). In a sex- and cohort-stratified Cox regression analysis alcohol consumption was non-linearly and positively associated with incident AF. The hazard ratio for one drink (12 g) per day was 1.16, 95% CI 1.11-1.22, P < 0.001. Associations were similar across types of alcohol. In contrast, alcohol consumption at lower doses was associated with reduced risk of incident HF. The association between alcohol consumption and incident AF was neither fully explained by cardiac biomarker concentrations nor by the occurrence of HF., Conclusions: In contrast to other cardiovascular diseases such as HF, even modest habitual alcohol intake of 1.2 drinks/day was associated with an increased risk of AF, which needs to be considered in AF prevention., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Aims: To explore sex-specific associations between long-term individual blood pressure (BP) patterns and risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population., Methods and Results: Blood pressure was measured in 8376 women and 7670 men who attended at least two of the three population-based Tromsø Study surveys conducted in 1986-87, 1994-95, and 2001. Participants were followed for incident AF throughout 2013. Latent mixed modelling was used to identify long-term trajectories of systolic BP and hypertension. Cox regression was used to estimate associations between the identified trajectories and incident AF. Elevated systolic BP throughout the exposure period (1986-2001) independently and differentially increased risk of AF in women and men. In women, having elevated systolic BP trajectories doubled AF risk compared to having persistently low levels, irrespective of whether systolic BP increased, decreased, or was persistently high over time, with hazard ratios of 1.88 (95% confidence interval 1.37-2.58), 2.32 (1.61-3.35), and 1.94 (1.28-2.94), respectively. In men, those with elevated systolic BP that continued to increase over time had a 50% increased AF risk: 1.51 (1.09-2.10). When compared to those persistently normotensive, women developing hypertension during the exposure period, and women and men with hypertension throughout the exposure period had 1.40 (1.06-1.86), 2.75 (1.99-3.80), and 1.36 (1.10-1.68) times increased risk of AF, respectively., Conclusion: Long-term BP and hypertension trajectories were associated with increased incidence of AF in both women and men, but the associations were stronger in women., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Aims: Limited evidence is available on the temporal relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischaemic stroke and their impact on mortality in the community. We sought to understand the temporal relationship of AF and ischaemic stroke and to determine the sequence of disease onset in relation to mortality., Methods and Results: Across five prospective community cohorts of the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project we assessed baseline cardiovascular risk factors in 100 132 individuals, median age 46.1 (25th-75th percentile 35.8-57.5) years, 48.4% men. We followed them for incident ischaemic stroke and AF and determined the relation of subsequent disease diagnosis with overall mortality. Over a median follow-up of 16.1 years, N = 4555 individuals were diagnosed solely with AF, N = 2269 had an ischaemic stroke but no AF diagnosed, and N = 898 developed both, ischaemic stroke and AF. Temporal relationships showed a clustering of diagnosis of both diseases within the years around the diagnosis of the other disease. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analyses with time-dependent covariates subsequent diagnosis of AF after ischaemic stroke was associated with increased mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 4.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.17-7.54; P < 0.001] which was also apparent when ischaemic stroke followed after the diagnosis of AF (HR 3.08, 95% CI 1.90-5.00; P < 0.001)., Conclusion: The temporal relations of ischaemic stroke and AF appear to be bidirectional. Ischaemic stroke may precede detection of AF by years. The subsequent diagnosis of both diseases significantly increases mortality risk. Future research needs to investigate the common underlying systemic disease processes., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2019. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Aims: Averaged measurements, but not the progression based on multiple assessments of carotid intima-media thickness, (cIMT) are predictive of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in individuals. Whether this is true for conventional risk factors is unclear., Methods and Results: An individual participant meta-analysis was used to associate the annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with future cardiovascular disease risk in 13 prospective cohort studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration ( n  = 34,072). Follow-up data included information on a combined cardiovascular disease endpoint of myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death. In secondary analyses, annualised progression was replaced with average. Log hazard ratios per standard deviation difference were pooled across studies by a random effects meta-analysis. In primary analysis, the annualised progression of total cholesterol was marginally related to a higher cardiovascular disease risk (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.07). The annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was not associated with future cardiovascular disease risk. In secondary analysis, average systolic blood pressure (HR 1.20 95% CI 1.11 to 1.29) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) were related to a greater, while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.97) was related to a lower risk of future cardiovascular disease events., Conclusion: Averaged measurements of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol displayed significant linear relationships with the risk of future cardiovascular disease events. However, there was no clear association between the annualised progression of these conventional risk factors in individuals with the risk of future clinical endpoints.

Background: Secondary prevention guidelines after myocardial infarction (MI) are gender neutral, but underutilisation of treatment in women has been reported., Design: We investigated the change in total and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels and lipid-lowering drug (LLD) use after first-ever MI in a population-based study., Methods: We followed 10,005 participants (54% women) attending the Tromsø Study 1994-1995 and 8483 participants (55% women) attending the Tromsø Study 2007-2008 for first-ever MI up to their participation in 2007-2008 and 2015-2016, respectively. We used linear and logistic regression models to investigate sex differences in change in lipid levels., Results: A total of 395 (MI cohort I) and 132 participants (MI cohort II) had a first-ever MI during 1994-2008 and 2007-2013, respectively. Mean change in total cholesterol was -2.34 mmol/L (SD 1.15) in MI cohort I, and in LDL cholesterol was -1.63 mmol/L (SD 1.12) in MI cohort II. Men had a larger decrease in lipid levels compared to women: the linear regression coefficient for change was -0.33 (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.51 to -0.14) for total cholesterol and -0.21 (95% CI -0.37 to -0.04) for LDL cholesterol, adjusted for baseline lipid value, age and cohort. Men had 73% higher odds (95% CI 1.15-2.61) of treatment target achievement compared to women, adjusted for baseline lipid value, age and cohort. LLD use was reported in 85% of women and 92% of men in MI cohort I, and 80% in women and 89% in men in MI cohort II., Conclusions: Compared to men, women had significantly less decrease in lipid levels after MI, and a smaller proportion of women achieved the treatment target.

Background Unrecognized myocardial infarction (MI) is a frequent and intriguing entity associated with a similar risk of death as recognized MI. Previous studies have not fully addressed whether the poor prognosis is explained by traditional cardiovascular risk factors. We investigated whether electrocardiographically detected unrecognized MI was independently associated with cardiovascular events and death and whether it improved prediction for future MI in a general population. Design Prospective cohort study. Methods We studied 5686 women and men without clinically recognized MI at baseline in 2007-2008. We assessed the risk of future MI, stroke and all-cause mortality in persons with unrecognized MI compared with persons with no MI during 31,051 person-years of follow-up. Results In the unadjusted analyses, unrecognized MI was associated with increased risk of future recognized MI (hazard ratio 1.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-2.96) and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.78, 95% CI 1.21-2.61), but not stroke (hazard ratio 1.09, 95% CI 0.56-2.17). The associations did not remain significant after adjustment for traditional risk factors (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% CI 0.76-2.06 and hazard ratio 1.38, 95% CI 0.93-2.05) for MI and all-cause mortality respectively. Unrecognized MI did not improve risk prediction for future recognized MI using the Framingham Risk Score ( p = 0.96) or the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation ( p = 0.65). There was no significant sex interaction regarding any of the endpoints. Conclusion Electrocardiographic unrecognized MI was not significantly associated with future risk of MI, stroke or all-cause mortality in the general population after adjustment for the traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and it did not improve prediction of future MI.

Aims: Epidemiological evidence indicates a protective effect of light to moderate alcohol consumption compared to non-drinking and heavy drinking. Although several mechanisms have been suggested, the effect of alcohol on atherosclerotic changes in vessel walls is unclear. Therefore, we explored the relationship between alcohol consumption and common carotid intima media thickness, a marker of early atherosclerosis in the general population., Methods: Individual participant data from eight cohorts, involving 37,494 individuals from the USE-IMT collaboration were used. Multilevel age and sex adjusted linear regression models were applied to estimate mean differences in common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) with alcohol consumption., Results: The mean age was 57.9 years (SD 8.6) and the mean CIMT was 0.75 mm (SD 0.177). About, 40.5% reported no alcohol consumed, and among those who drank, mean consumption was 13.3 g per day (SD 16.4). Those consuming no alcohol or a very small amount (<5 g per day) had significantly lower common CIMT values than those consuming >10 g per day, after adjusting for a range of confounding factors., Conclusion: In this large CIMT consortium, we did not find evidence to support a protective effect of alcohol on CIMT., (© The Author 2017. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press.)

Background Resting heart rate is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease, but long-term individual resting heart rate trajectories and their effect on cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality have not yet been described. Methods This large population-based longitudinal study included 14,208 men and women aged 20 years or older, not pregnant and not using blood pressure medications, who attended at least two of the three Tromsø Study surveys conducted between 1986-2001. Resting heart rate was measured using an automated Dinamap device. Participants were followed up from 2001 to 2012 with respect to myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, ischaemic stroke, cardiovascular disease death and total death. The Proc Traj statistical procedure was used to identify resting heart rate trajectories. Results Five common long-term resting heart rate trajectories were identified: low, moderate, decreasing, increasing and elevated. In men, an elevated resting heart rate trajectory was independently associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction when low resting heart rate trajectory was used as a reference (hazard ratio 1.83, 95% confidence interval 1.11-3.02). Risk of total death in men was lowest in the low resting heart rate trajectory group and highest in the increasing and elevated resting heart rate trajectory groups. In women, the association between resting heart rate trajectories and myocardial infarction was similar to that in men, but it was not significant. Conclusions Among the five long-term resting heart rate trajectories we identified, increasing and elevated trajectories were associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction and total death in men. Our results suggest that changes in long-term individual resting heart rate in the general population may provide additional prognostic information.

Background: Serum osteoprotegerin (OPG) is elevated in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and increases with decreasing renal function. However, there are limited data regarding the association between OPG and renal function in the general population. The aim of the present study was to explore the relation between serum OPG and renal function in subjects recruited from the general population., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study with 6689 participants recruited from the general population in Tromsø, Norway. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equations. OPG was modelled both as a continuous and categorical variable. General linear models and linear regression with adjustment for possible confounders were used to study the association between OPG and eGFR. Analyses were stratified by the median age, as serum OPG and age displayed a significant interaction on eGFR., Results: In participants ≤62.2 years with normal renal function (eGFR ≥90 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ) eGFR increased by 0.35 mL/min/1.73 m 2 (95% CI 0.13-0.56) per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in serum OPG after multiple adjustment. In participants older than the median age with impaired renal function (eGFR <90 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ), eGFR decreased by 1.54 (95% CI -2.06 to -1.01) per 1 SD increase in serum OPG., Conclusions: OPG was associated with an increased eGFR in younger subjects with normal renal function and with a decreased eGFR in older subjects with reduced renal function. Our findings imply that the association between OPG and eGFR varies with age and renal function.

Background: The clinical use of carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) requires normal values, which may be subject to variation of geographical factors, ethnicity or measurement details. The influence of these factors has rarely been studied. The aim of this study was to determine whether normative cIMT values and their association with event risk are generalizable across populations., Design: Meta-analysis of individual participant data., Method: From 22 general population cohorts from Europe, North America and Asia we selected subjects free of cardiovascular disease. Percentiles of cIMT and cIMT progression were assessed separately for every cohort. Cox proportional hazards models for vascular events were used to estimate hazard ratios for cIMT in each cohort. The estimates were pooled across Europe, North America and Asia, with random effects meta-analysis. The influence of geography, ethnicity and ultrasound protocols on cIMT values and on the hazard ratios was examined by meta-regression., Results: Geographical factors, ethnicity and the ultrasound protocol had influence neither on the percentiles of cIMT and its progression, nor on the hazard ratios of cIMT for vascular events. Heterogeneity for percentiles of cIMT and cIMT progression was too large to create meaningful normative values., Conclusions: The distribution of cIMT values is too heterogeneous to define universal or regional population reference values. CIMT values vary widely between different studies regardless of ethnicity, geographic location and ultrasound protocol. Prediction of vascular events with cIMT values was more consistent across all cohorts, ethnicities and regions., (© The European Society of Cardiology 2016.)

Background: Large-scale epidemiological evidence on the role of inflammation in early atherosclerosis, assessed by carotid ultrasound, is lacking. We aimed to quantify cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of inflammatory markers with common-carotid-artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) in the general population., Methods: Information on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, leucocyte count and CCA-IMT was available in 20 prospective cohort studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration involving 49,097 participants free of pre-existing cardiovascular disease. Estimates of associations were calculated within each study and then combined using random-effects meta-analyses., Results: Mean baseline CCA-IMT amounted to 0.74 mm (SD = 0.18) and mean CCA-IMT progression over a mean of 3.9 years to 0.011 mm/year (SD = 0.039). Cross-sectional analyses showed positive linear associations between inflammatory markers and baseline CCA-IMT. After adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, mean differences in baseline CCA-IMT per one-SD higher inflammatory marker were: 0.0082 mm for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (p < 0.001); 0.0072 mm for fibrinogen (p < 0.001); and 0.0025 mm for leucocyte count (p = 0.033). 'Inflammatory load', defined as the number of elevated inflammatory markers (i.e. in upper two quintiles), showed a positive linear association with baseline CCA-IMT (p < 0.001). Longitudinal associations of baseline inflammatory markers and changes therein with CCA-IMT progression were null or at most weak. Participants with the highest 'inflammatory load' had a greater CCA-IMT progression (p = 0.015)., Conclusion: Inflammation was independently associated with CCA-IMT cross-sectionally. The lack of clear associations with CCA-IMT progression may be explained by imprecision in its assessment within a limited time period. Our findings for 'inflammatory load' suggest important combined effects of the three inflammatory markers on early atherosclerosis., (© The European Society of Cardiology 2014.)

Aims: Serum uric acid (SUA) has been associated with cardiovascular disease in population studies, but its relation to atrial fibrillation (AF) is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between baseline SUA and future AF in a large population-based cohort., Methods and Results: A total of 6308 men and women from a population survey in Tromsø, Norway in 1994-95 were followed-up for 10.8 years. The mean age at baseline was 60 years. Information on angina, myocardial infarction, diabetes, anti-hypertensive and diuretic treatment, physical activity, smoking and alcohol, and measurements of height, weight, blood pressure, SUA, total cholesterol, and high density lipoprotein-cholesterol were obtained at baseline. The outcome measure was first-ever AF, documented on an electrocardiogram. We identified 572 cases of incident AF. In multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors and concomitant diseases, SUA was associated with AF in both sexes. Hazard ratio per 1 SD increase in SUA (91 μmol/L) was 1.40 [95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.14-1.72] in women and 1.17 (95% CI, 1.02-1.36) in men. The upper quartile of SUA conferred a 76% increased risk for AF in women and 49% in men as compared with the lowest quartile., Conclusion: This prospective population-based cohort study showed that baseline SUA was associated with an increased risk for future AF in both sexes.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia which increases morbidity and mortality. Identification of risk factors is therefore important. We examined the impact of palpitations and cardiovascular risk factors in prediction of AF (all types) and lone AF in a large population-based cohort., Design: We carried out a prospective population-based cohort study., Methods: A total of 22,815 participants from a population survey in 1994-1995 were followed-up for a mean of 11.1 years. Mean age at baseline was 46 years. Measurements of height, weight, blood pressure, heart rate, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, and information on palpitations, diabetes, angina, myocardial infarction, and antihypertensive treatment were obtained at baseline. The outcome measure was first-ever AF, documented on an electrocardiogram. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for AF., Results: Palpitations were associated with increased risk of AF in both women (HR 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-2.02) and men (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.54-2.35). For hypertension the HR for AF was 1.98 (1.46-2.69) in women and 1.40 (1.13-1.74) in men. The HR for 1 SD increase in body mass index (BMI) was 1.16 (1.06-1.27) in women and 1.47 (1.32-1.63) in men. Body height and BMI were associated with increased risk for lone AF in men., Conclusion: Palpitations, hypertension and BMI were predictive of future atrial fibrillation in both sexes.

Background: Although the mortality of coronary heart disease (CHD) has declined in Western countries during the last decades, studies have suggested that the prevention and treatment of CHD may not have been as effective in women as in men. We examined gender- and age-specific trends in incidence, case fatality and the severity of first myocardial infarction (MI) in a large Norwegian population-based study., Design: Prospective population-based cohort study., Methods: A total of 31,323 participants enrolled between 1974 and 2001 were followed throughout 2004 for a total of 400,572 person-years. Suspected coronary events were adjudicated by a review of hospital records and death certificates. A total of 1669 events fulfilled standardized criteria of first-ever fatal or non-fatal MI., Results: In the age group 35-79 years, the age-adjusted incidence of MI declined significantly in men, whereas an increase was observed in women. For men and women ≥ 80 years the incidence rates remained unchanged. The severity of MI and the 28-day and 1-year case fatality rates declined significantly and similarly in men and women., Conclusion: Trends in MI incidence differed by sex and age; in the age group 35-79 years a marked decrease was observed among men but an increase was observed among women, while no change was observed among older patients. MI severity and case fatality were clearly reduced for both sexes. These data suggest that the burden of CHD is shifting from middle-aged men toward middle-aged women and elderly patients.

Background: Glomerular filtration rate<60 mL/min/1.73 m2 is associated with increased cardiovascular risk. Cystatin C is believed to be a better tool than creatinine for detection of mild renal dysfunction (>60 mL/min/1.73 m2) and possibly a more sensitive marker for cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality. We examined the association of cystatin C with cardiovascular morbidity and all-cause mortality in a prospective population-based study., Methods: Cystatin C was measured in 2852 men and 3153 women in the Tromsø Study 1994/95. Gender-specific associations during 12 years of follow-up for all-cause mortality and 9.5 years for myocardial infarction (MI) and ischaemic stroke were assessed (Cox proportional hazard ratios, HRs)., Results: During follow-up, 591 MIs, 293 ischaemic strokes and 1262 deaths occurred. In women, HR for all-cause mortality was increased in the upper cystatin C quartile (≥0.93 mg/L) compared with the lowest quartile (≤0.73 mg/L); 1.38, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.84. A significant interaction with gender was observed. One SD (0.17 mg/L) increase in cystatin C was associated with 9% higher risk of death in women, also when persons with a cancer history were excluded. Crude HRs for MI and ischaemic stroke were increased in both genders, but the associations did not persist after multivariable adjustments. No independent associations with end points were observed in non-gender-specific analyses., Conclusions: Cystatin C was not independently associated with fatal and non-fatal MI or ischaemic stroke in the general population. However, cystatin C was a risk factor for all-cause mortality in women.

An association between body height and venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been suggested by previous studies including males only. The aim of this prospective cohort study was to investigate the sex-specific impact of body height on risk of VTE in a general population. Risk factors, including body height and weight, were registered for 26,727 subjects aged 25-96 years who participated in the Tromsø Study (Norway) in 1994-1995. Incident VTE events were registered through September 1, 2007. There were 462 VTE events during a median 12.5 years of follow-up. Body height was a risk factor for VTE in men, but not in women. Multivariable hazard ratios per 10 cm, adjusted for age, body mass index, diabetes, smoking, and hormone therapy (women), were 1.34 (95% confidence interval: 1.09, 1.64) for men and 1.13 (95% confidence interval: 0.91, 1.40) for women. Hazard ratios by quartiles of body height revealed that men in the upper quartile (>181 cm) had a 1.99-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.35, 2.92) increased risk of VTE compared with men in the lowest quartile (<173 cm) (P for trend across quartiles = 0.002). There was no significant trend (P = 0.2) across quartiles of body height for women. Study findings revealed that body height is a sex-specific risk factor for VTE in men.

Aims: High levels of microalbuminuria have been associated with severe atherosclerosis. In this prospective, population-based study, we examined whether urinary albumin-to-creatinine-ratios (ACR) in the lower range were associated with the initiation and progression of atherosclerosis., Methods and Results: Carotid ultrasonography and measurements of ACR, fibrinogen, monocytes, white cell count, and well-established cardiovascular risk factors were performed in 4037 non-diabetic subjects, 2203 without, and 1834 with pre-existing plaques at baseline. After 7 years new ultrasound measurements were performed. In subjects without pre-existing plaques, 884 had developed at least one plaque during follow-up. Baseline ACR was significantly related to the area of the novel plaques (P for linear trend = 0.009 over the baseline ACR quartiles, after multiple adjustments). The relationship with ACR was clearly modified by fibrinogen (P = 0.001, for the interaction ACR x fibrinogen). Subjects with high levels of both ACR and fibrinogen developed plaques with the largest area. In subjects with pre-existing plaques, ACR was related to plaque-progression (P for linear trend = 0.026, after multiple adjustments). In these individuals, the interaction between fibrinogen and ACR on plaque-growth appeared only in those with minimal atherosclerosis at baseline., Conclusion: ACR is positively related to plaque-initiation and plaque-growth. This relationship is substantially modified by fibrinogen in previously plaque-free subjects.