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Background: Whereas the incidence or rate of polyploid speciation in flowering plants is modest, the production of polyploid individuals within local populations is widespread. Explanations for this disparity primarily have focused on properties or interactions of polyploids that limit their persistence., Hypothesis: The emergence of local polyploid populations within diploid populations is similar to the arrival of invasive species at new, suitable sites, with the exception that polyploids suffer interference from their progenitor(s). The most consistent predictor of successful colonization by invasive plants is propagule pressure, i.e. the number of seeds introduced. Therefore, insufficient propagule pressure, i.e. the formation of polyploid seeds within diploid populations, ostensibly is a prime factor limiting the establishment of newly emergent polyploids within local populations. Increasing propagule number reduces the effects of genetic, environmental and demographic stochasticity, which thwart population survival. As with invasive species, insufficient seed production within polyploid populations limits seed export, and thus reduces the chance of polyploid expansion., Conclusion: The extent to which propagule pressure limits the establishment of local polyploid populations remains to be determined, because we know so little. The numbers of auto- or allopolyploid seed in diploid populations rarely have been ascertained, as have the numbers of newly emergent polyploid plants within diploid populations. Moreover, seed production by these polyploids has yet to be assessed., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Species diversity is likely to undergo a sharp decline in the next century. Perhaps as many as 33 % of all plant species may expire as a result of climate change. All parts of the globe will be impacted, and all groups of organisms will be affected. Hundreds of species throughout the world have already experienced local extinction., Perspectives: While thousands of species may become extinct in the next century and beyond, species formation will still occur. I consider which modes of plant species formation are likely to prevail in the next 500 years. I argue that speciation primarily will involve mechanisms that produce reproductively isolated lineages within less (often much less) than 100 generations. I will not especially consider the human element in promoting species formation, because it will continue and because the conclusions presented here are unaffected by it. The impact of climate change may be much more severe and widespread., Conclusions: The most common modes of speciation likely to be operative in the next 500 years ostensibly will be auto- and allopolyploidy. Polyploid species or the antecedents thereof can arise within two generations. Moreover, polyploids often have broader ecological tolerances, and are likely to be more invasive than are their diploid relatives. Polyploid species may themselves spawn additional higher level polyploids either through crosses with diploid species or between pre-existing polyploids. The percentage of polyploid species is likely to exceed 50 % within the next 500 years vs. 35 % today. The stabilized hybrid derivatives (homoploid hybrid speciation) could emerge within a hundred generations after species contact, as could speciation involving chromosomal rearrangements (and perhaps number), but the number of such events is likely to be low. Speciation involving lineage splitting will be infrequent because the formation of substantive pre- and post-zygotic barriers typically takes many thousands of years., (© The Author 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Our understanding of the processes and dynamics of allopolyploid speciation, the long-term consequences of ploidal change, and the genetic and chromosomal changes in new emerged allopolyploids has substantially increased during the past few decades. Yet we remain uncertain about the time since lineage divergence when two taxa are capable of spawning such entities. Indeed, the matter has seemed intractable. Knowledge of the window of opportunity for allopolyploid production is very important because it provides temporal insight into a key evolutionary process, and a temporal reference against which other modes of speciation may be measured., Scope: This Viewpoint paper reviews and integrates published information on the crossability of herbaceous species and the fertility of their hybrids in relation to species' divergence times. Despite limitations in methodology and sampling, the estimated times to hybrid sterility are somewhat congruent across disparate lineages. Whereas the waiting time for hybrid sterility is roughly 4-5 million years, the waiting time for cross-incompatibility is roughly 8-10 million years, sometimes considerably more. Strict allopolyploids may be formed in the intervening time window. The progenitors of several allopolyploids diverged between 4 and 6 million years before allopolyploid synthesis, as expected. This is the first study to propose a general temporal framework for strict allopolyploidy. This Viewpoint paper hopefully will stimulate interest in studying the tempo of speciation and the tempo of reproductive isolation in general.

Background: The trailing edges of species ranges are becoming a subject of increasing interest as the environment changes due to global warming. Trailing edge populations are likely to face extinction because of a decline in numbers and an inability to evolve new adaptations with sufficient speed. Discussions of character change in the trailing edge have focused on physiological, exomorphic and phenological traits. The mating pattern within populations has not been part of the discourse, in spite of the fact that the mating pattern may affect the ability of populations to respond to environmental change and to maintain their sizes. In this paper, the case is made that a substantial increase in self-fertilization rates may occur via plastic responses to stress., Scope and Conclusions: Small populations on the trailing edge are especially vulnerable to environmental change because of inadequate levels of cross-fertilization. Evidence is presented that a deficiency of cross-seed production is due to inadequate pollinator services and a paucity of self-incompatibility alleles within populations. Evidence also is presented that if plants are self-compatible, self-fertilization may compensate in part for this deficiency through a stress-induced increase in levels of self-compatibility and stress-induced alterations in floral morphology that elevate self-pollination. Whereas increased self-fertility may afford populations the time to adapt to their changing environments, it can be concluded that increased selfing is not a panacea for the ills of environmental change, because it will lead to substantial reductions in genetic diversity, which may render adaptation unlikely.

Character displacement, which arises when species diverge in sympatry to decrease competition for resources or reproductive interference, has been observed in a wide variety of plants and animals. A classic example of reproductive character displacement, presumed to be caused by reinforcing selection, is flower-color variation in the native Texas wildflower Phlox drummondii. Here, we use population genetic analyses to investigate molecular signatures of selection on flower-color variation in this species. First, we quantify patterns of neutral genetic variation across the range of P. drummondii to demonstrate that restricted gene flow and genetic drift cannot explain the pattern of flower-color divergence in this species. There is evidence of extensive gene flow across populations with different flower colors, suggesting selection caused flower-color divergence. Second, analysis of sequence variation in the genes underlying this divergence reveals a signature of a selective sweep in one of the two genes, further indicating selection is responsible for divergence in sympatry. The lack of a signature of selection at the second locus does not necessarily indicate a lack of selection on this locus but instead brings attention to the uncertainty in depending on molecular signatures to identify selection., (© 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

Recombination is a powerful policing mechanism to control intragenomic cheats. The "parliament of the genes" can often rapidly block driving genes from cheating during meiosis. But what if the genome parliament is reduced to only two members, or supergenes? Using a series of simple game-theoretic models inspired by the peculiar genetics of Oenothera sp., we illustrate that a two supergene genome (α and β) can produce a number of surprising evolutionary dynamics, including increases in lineage longevity following a transition from sexuality (outcrossing) to asexuality (clonal self-fertilization). We end by interpreting the model in the broader context of the evolution of mutualism, which highlights that greater α, β cooperation in the self-fertilizing model can be viewed as an example of partner fidelity driving multilineage cooperation., (© 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

The wide distribution of polyploidy among plants has led to a variety of theories for the evolutionary advantages of polyploidy. Here we claim that the abundance of polyploidy may be the result of a simple ratcheting process that does not require evolutionary advantages due to the biological properties of organisms. The evolution of polyploidy is a one-way process in which chromosome number can increase but not decrease. Using a simple mathematical model, we show that average ploidal level within a plant lineage can continually increase to the levels observed today, even if there are ecological or physiological disadvantages to higher ploidy. The model allowed us to estimate the average net speciation and polyploidy rates for ten angiosperm genera. Based on these estimates, the model predicts distributions of ploidal levels statistically similar to those observed in nine of the 10 genera.

We determined whether supernumerary B chromosomes were nonrandomly distributed among major angiosperm lineages and among lineages within families, as well as the identity of lineages with unusually high B-chromosome frequencies (hot spots). The incidence of B chromosomes for each taxon was gathered from databases showing species with and without these chromosomes (among species with known chromosome numbers). Heterogeneity was found at all ranks above the species level. About 8% of monocots had B chromosomes versus 3% for eudicots; they were rare in nonmonocot basal angiosperms. Significant heterogeneity in B-chromosome frequency occurred among related orders, families within orders, and major taxa within families. There were many B-chromosome hot spots, including Liliales and Commelinales at the order level. At the family level, there was a trend suggesting that B-chromosome frequencies are positively correlated with genome size.

Chloroplast capture, the introgression of a chloroplast from one species into another, has been frequently suggested as the explanation for inconsistencies between gene trees based on nuclear and cytoplasmic markers in plants. We use a genetic model to determine the conditions for capture to occur, and we find that they are somewhat more general than those given in earlier verbal arguments. Chloroplast capture can occur if cytoplasm substitution provides an advantage in seed production. This can happen through reallocation to the female function when cytonuclear incompatibilities cause partial male sterility, but also under more general conditions. Capture is promoted by nuclear incompatibilities between the two genomes (or a low heterosis in F1 hybrids) and by partial selfing when hybridization causes a decrease in the selfing rate and inbreeding depression is strong. We discuss empirical predictions that can be used to test this mechanism.

Two cycles of artificial selection were performed to increase autogamous fruiting in two wild populations of the self-incompatible Phlox drummondii, to decrease autogamous fruiting in two wild populations of the self-compatible Phlox cuspidata, and to both increase and decrease autogamous fruiting in a cultivar of P. drummondii which is pseudo-self-compatible. The breeding systems were determined to be genetically quite flexible, independent of inbreeding depression and other genetic phenomena which could hinder a breeding system shift. This is especially true for increasing autogamy. Self-pollen-pistil compatibility seems to be the single character affected by selection. Based on the continuous variation in both autogamy and self-compatibility, we suggest that the change has been due to genes which modify the self-incompatibility reaction rather than to the simple segregation of alleles at the S-locus., (© 1996 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

To determine if the evolution of fitness traits in the annual plant, Phlox drummondii, is constrained by lack of genetic variation, we calculated the heritability and genetic correlation of 16 traits in a field population. Full- and half-sib families of seeds were generated in the greenhouse and planted back into the study population. Of 855 seeds that germinated, 609 survived to produce fruit. For each plant we measured several aspects of plant size and three components of female fecundity: total number of fruits produced, number of seeds per fruit, and mass of individual seeds. Heritability of traits ranged from 0.00 to 0.15. Several traits showed significant levels of additive genetic variance, but we found no evidence of additive genetic variance in components of female fecundity and no evidence of negative genetic correlation between fitness traits. These results suggest that evolution in this population would be constrained by lack of heritable variation in fitness traits., (© 1991 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

Inbreeding depression was measured in terms of the relative survivorship of self versus cross seed in 14 Phlox drummondii cultivars and 10 populations of P. cuspidata. The cultivars are predominantly outcrossing; P. cuspidata is predominantly self-fertilizing. The relative survivorship of self versus cross seed averages 0.84 in the cultivars and 0.99 in P. cuspidata. In wild P. drummondii, the average is 0.83. The mean number of lethal equivalents per zygote averages 0.69 in the cultivars and 0.05 in P. cuspidata, versus 0.79 in the wild P. drummondii. There is a significant negative correlation between the amount of automatic self-seed produced by a cultivar and the number of lethal equivalents it carries (r = -0.60). Phlox cuspidata has a lower level of cross-seed abortion than P. drummondii, which probably is not due to a difference in the incidence of lethal genes in their populations., (© 1989 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

Comparative demography of reciprocally sown populations for all stages of the life cycle of the winter annual, Phlox drummondii, was recorded for two seasons in natural sites. The sites investigated covered the natural range of the species and were separated by linear distances ranging from 10 to over 500 kilometers. Interpopulational variation was observed in all stages of the life cycle. Prereproductive survivorship ranged from 0 to 92 percent. Fecundity per plant ranged from 0 to 81 seeds. Finite rates of increase ranged from 0 to 34.1 yr -1 . The experimental populations with low values were growing in sites that received little rainfall or had experienced an insect or fungal infestation. The populations with high growth rates occurred in the northern sites which received greater rainfall. The relative fitness of individuals from the alien populations was compared to the local populations for all stages of the life cycle. The alien relative fitness for survivorship averaged 0.72. The average relative fitness of aliens for fecundity was 0.71 and that for finite rate of increase was 0.57. The life history parameters found in Phlox populations differ from one part of the range to another so that aliens have lower relative fitnesses than individuals indigenous to the site., (© 1985 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

Selection favoring different alleles in different environments frequently has been suggested as an explanation for allozyme variation within and among populations. This hypothesis predicts that allozyme frequencies will be correlated with environmental variables. Previous studies on allozyme frequency-environment covariation in plants often have relied on qualitative assessments of the environment and have emphasized highly autogamous species. We have examined allozyme frequency-soil associations in Gaillardia pulchella, an obligately outcrossed annual plant, by regressing the frequencies of 15 common allozymes representing six polymorphic enzyme loci on principal components from a set of 20 quantitative soil variables. Fifty-one populations, representing four taxonomic varieties, were included in the analysis. Among the 26 populations representing the var. pulchella, allozymes Adh-2f and Pgm-1c were significantly associated with a block of highly inter-correlated soil characteristics which serve to discriminate between soils derived from calcareous vs. non-calcareous rock types. This geographically complex pattern of allozyme frequency-soil covariation is not likely to be spurious and, thus, indicates the presence of adaptively differentiated soil races, or ecotypes. However, these results are not sufficient to conclude that the allozyme frequency divergence between ecotypes was mediated by selection, either directly or through genetic hitchhiking. The pattern of allozyme frequency-soil covariation within var. pulchella was not found among the other taxonomic varieties. Patterns of genotype-environment covariation often may be recognizable only within geographically or environmentally restricted groups of populations because of the confounding influences of other environmental variables., (© 1985 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

Plants of the red- and pink-flowered P. drummondii were introduced into a natural population of P. cuspidata. Their seeds were progeny-tested, and the percentage hybrid seed determined for each variant. Thirty-eight percent of the seed from the pink variant were hybrid compared to 13% of the red. The difference in hybrid production is best explained by corolla color. The self- and cross-compatibility of nine sympatric and nine allopatric populations were studied in the greenhouse. On the average, sympatric populations are more self-compatible than allopatric populations. Pollen germination is 13.7% vs. 7.3%, the difference being statistically significant. The self-compatibility differential was accompanied by a self seedset differential. On the average, sympatric populations are more cross-compatible with P. cuspidata than are allopatric populations. The germination of P. cuspidata pollen on sympatric P. drummondii stigmas was 13.3% vs. 9.8% on allopatric stigmas. However, the difference is not statistically significant. The presence of P. cuspidata has promoted reproductive character divergence in P. drummondii. The shift in corolla color and the increase in self-compatibility reduce the potential for gametic wastage and interspecific hybridization., (© 1985 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)