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Aim: Cholesterol-based risk prediction is often insufficient in cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients. Ceramides are a new kind of biomarkers for CVD. The Coronary Event Risk Test (CERT) is a validated cardiovascular risk predictor that uses only circulating ceramide levels, determined by coupled liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, to allocate patients into one of four risk categories. This test has recently been modified (CERT2) by additionally including phosphatidylcholine levels., Methods and Results: In this observational cohort study, we have recruited 999 Austrian patients with CVD and followed them for up to 13 years. We found that CERT and CERT2 both predicted cardiovascular events, cardiovascular mortality, and overall mortality. CERT2 had the higher performance compared to CERT and also to the recent cardiovascular risk score of the ESC/EAS guidelines (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE)) for low-risk European countries. Combining CERT2 with the ESC/EAS-SCORE, predictive capacity was further increased leading to a hazard ratio of 3.58 (2.02-6.36; P < 0.001) for cardiovascular events, 11.60 (2.72-49.56; P = 0.001) for cardiovascular mortality, and 9.86 (4.23-22.99; P < 0.001) for overall mortality when patients with very high risk (category 4) were compared to those with low risk (category 1). The use of the combined score instead of the ESC/EAS-SCORE significantly improved the predictive power according to the integrated discrimination improvement index (P = 0.004)., Conclusion: We conclude that CERT and CERT2 are powerful predictors of cardiovascular events, cardiovascular mortality, and overall mortality in CVD patients. Including phosphatidylcholine to a ceramide-based score increases the predictive performance and is best in combination with classical risk factors as used in the ESC/EAS-SCORE., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2021. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Aims: Distinct ceramide lipids have been shown to predict the risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, especially cardiovascular death. As phospholipids have also been linked with CVD risk, we investigated whether the combination of ceramides with phosphatidylcholines (PCs) would be synergistic in the prediction of CVD events in patients with atherosclerotic coronary heart disease in three independent cohort studies., Methods and Results: Ceramides and PCs were analysed using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) in three studies: WECAC (The Western Norway Coronary Angiography Cohort) (N = 3789), LIPID (Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease) trial (N = 5991), and KAROLA (Langzeiterfolge der KARdiOLogischen Anschlussheilbehandlung) (N = 1023). A simple risk score, based on the ceramides and PCs showing the best prognostic features, was developed in the WECAC study and validated in the two other cohorts. This score was highly significant in predicting CVD mortality [multiadjusted hazard ratios (HRs; 95% confidence interval) per standard deviation were 1.44 (1.28-1.63) in WECAC, 1.47 (1.34-1.61) in the LIPID trial, and 1.69 (1.31-2.17) in KAROLA]. In addition, a combination of the risk score with high-sensitivity troponin T increased the HRs to 1.63 (1.44-1.85) and 2.04 (1.57-2.64) in WECAC and KAROLA cohorts, respectively. The C-statistics in WECAC for the risk score combined with sex and age was 0.76 for CVD death. The ceramide-phospholipid risk score showed comparable and synergistic predictive performance with previously published CVD risk models for secondary prevention., Conclusion: A simple ceramide- and phospholipid-based risk score can efficiently predict residual CVD event risk in patients with coronary artery disease., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)