Petros BA, Turcinovic J, Welch NL, White LF, Kolaczyk ED, Bauer MR, Cleary M, Dobbins ST, Doucette-Stamm L, Gore M, Nair P, Nguyen TG, Rose S, Taylor BP, Tsang D, Wendlandt E, Hope M, Platt JT, Jacobson KR, Bouton T, Yune S, Auclair JR, Landaverde L, Klapperich CM, Hamer DH, Hanage WP, MacInnis BL, Sabeti PC, Connor JH, and Springer M
Background: The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is highly transmissible in vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. The dynamics that govern its establishment and propensity toward fixation (reaching 100% frequency in the SARS-CoV-2 population) in communities remain unknown. Here, we describe the dynamics of Omicron at 3 institutions of higher education (IHEs) in the greater Boston area., Methods: We use diagnostic and variant-specifying molecular assays and epidemiological analytical approaches to describe the rapid dominance of Omicron following its introduction into 3 IHEs with asymptomatic surveillance programs., Results: We show that the establishment of Omicron at IHEs precedes that of the state and region and that the time to fixation is shorter at IHEs (9.5-12.5 days) than in the state (14.8 days) or region. We show that the trajectory of Omicron fixation among university employees resembles that of students, with a 2- to 3-day delay. Finally, we compare cycle threshold values in Omicron vs Delta variant cases on college campuses and identify lower viral loads among college affiliates who harbor Omicron infections., Conclusions: We document the rapid takeover of the Omicron variant at IHEs, reaching near-fixation within the span of 9.5-12.5 days despite lower viral loads, on average, than the previously dominant Delta variant. These findings highlight the transmissibility of Omicron, its propensity to rapidly dominate small populations, and the ability of robust asymptomatic surveillance programs to offer early insights into the dynamics of pathogen arrival and spread., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. M. S. is cofounder of, shareholder in, and advisor to Rhinostics, Inc and reports a patent for an anterior nares swab (US provisional patent application 63/085,571). M. G., D. T., S. R., and E. W. are employed by Integrated DNA Technologies. D. T. reports stock or stock options from Danaher Corporation (payments to author). S. R. reports stock or stock options from Danaher Corporation. C. M. K. is cofounder of Biosens8, Inc and reports grants or contracts unrelated to this work from the NIH National Institute of General Medical Sciences, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Uniformed Services University, and BU; reports consulting fees paid to author from Adventus Research + Consulting, Inc; is a member of the Biomedical Engineering Society Board; and has a leadership or fiduciary role with the American Institute for Medical and Biological Engineering. J. H. C. is a paid consultant for Cell Signaling Technologies and reports funding unrelated to this work from Mass CPR/Evergrande. W. P. H. serves on scientific advisory boards for Biobot Analytics, Inc and Merck; received consulting fees from Biobot Analytics; contributed expert witness testimony on the expected course of the pandemic for Analysis Group; and reports stock or stock options from Biobot Analytics. P. C. S. is a founder of and shareholder in Sherlock Biosciences, reports consulting fees from Sherlock Biosciences, reports patents for CRISPR technology (PCT/US2018/022764 and PCT/US2019/061577), and is on the board and serves as shareholder for the Danaher Corporation. B. A. P. reports lecture honoraria from the Harvard Secondary School Program and a patent for CRISPR technology (WO 2022/051667). D. H. H. reports funding from an institution unrelated to this work (CDC 1 U01CK000632-01-00 GeoSentinel); consultancy payments to the author from Major League Soccer, the Professional Golf Association of America, Equinox, and Xenophon Strategies, Inc; and participation as chair of a data and safety monitoring board for COVEDZ. M. T. G. reports stock or stock options from Danaher Corporation. T. B. reports grants or contracts unrelated to this work from Gilead Sciences, Inc and Fujifilm Pharmaceuticals U.S.A., Inc. M. H. reports consulting fees as an independent laboratory consultant for Nichols Management Group, LLC. All remaining authors: No reported conflicts of interest. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)