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Objectives: Cardiovascular risk prediction tools developed for the general population often underperform for individuals with RA, and their predictive accuracy are unclear for other inflammatory conditions that also have increased cardiovascular risk. We investigated the performance of QRISK-3, the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and the Reynolds Risk Score (RRS) in RA, psoriatic disease (PsA and psoriasis) and AS. We considered OA as a non-inflammatory comparator., Methods: We utilized primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum database to identify individuals with each condition and calculated 10-year cardiovascular risk using each prediction tool. The discrimination and calibration of each tool was assessed for each disease., Results: The time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) for QRISK3 was 0.752 for RA (95% CI 0.734-0.777), 0.794 for AS (95% CI 0.764-0.812), 0.764 for PsA (95% CI 0.741-0.791), 0.815 for psoriasis (95% CI 0.789-0.835) and 0.698 for OA (95% CI 0.670-0.717), indicating reasonably good predictive performance. The AUCs for the FRS were similar, and slightly lower for the RRS. The FRS was reasonably well calibrated for each condition but underpredicted risk for patients with RA. The RRS tended to underpredict CVD risk, while QRISK3 overpredicted CVD risk, especially for the most high-risk individuals., Conclusion: CVD risk for individuals with RA, AS and psoriatic disease was generally less accurately predicted using each of the three CVD risk prediction tools than the reported accuracies in the original publications. Individuals with OA also had less accurate predictions, suggesting inflammation is not the sole reason for underperformance. Disease-specific risk prediction tools may be required., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Background: Estimates of the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) underpin effective antimicrobial stewardship, infection prevention and control, and optimal deployment of antimicrobial agents. Typically, the prevalence of AMR is determined from real-world antimicrobial susceptibility data that are time delimited, sparse, and often biased, potentially resulting in harmful and wasteful decision-making. Frequentist methods are resource intensive because they rely on large datasets., Objectives: To determine whether a Bayesian approach could present a more reliable and more resource-efficient way to estimate population prevalence of AMR than traditional frequentist methods., Methods: Retrospectively collected, open-source, real-world pseudonymized healthcare data were used to develop a Bayesian approach for estimating the prevalence of AMR by combination with prior AMR information from a contextualized review of literature. Iterative random sampling and cross-validation were used to assess the predictive accuracy and potential resource efficiency of the Bayesian approach compared with a standard frequentist approach., Results: Bayesian estimation of AMR prevalence made fewer extreme estimation errors than a frequentist estimation approach [n = 74 (6.4%) versus n = 136 (11.8%)] and required fewer observed antimicrobial susceptibility results per pathogen on average [mean = 28.8 (SD = 22.1) versus mean = 34.4 (SD = 30.1)] to avoid any extreme estimation errors in 50 iterations of the cross-validation. The Bayesian approach was maximally effective and efficient for drug-pathogen combinations where the actual prevalence of resistance was not close to 0% or 100%., Conclusions: Bayesian estimation of the prevalence of AMR could provide a simple, resource-efficient approach to better inform population infection management where uncertainty about AMR prevalence is high., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.)

Background: Twice weekly lateral flow tests (LFTs) for secondary school children was UK Government policy from 8 March 2021. We evaluate use of LFTs (both supervised at test centres, and home test kits) in school-aged children in Cheshire and Merseyside., Methods: We report (i) number of LFT positives (ii) proportion of LFT positive with confirmatory reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test within 2 days, and (iii) agreement between LFT-positive and confirmatory PCR, and dependence of (i-iii) on COVID-19 prevalence., Findings: 1 248 468 LFTs were taken by 211 255 12-18 years old, and 163 914 by 52 116 5-11 years old between 6 November 2020 and 31 July 2021. Five thousand three hundred and fourteen (2.5%) 12-18 years old and 1996 (3.8%) 5-11 years old returned LFT positives, with 3829 (72.1%) and 1535 (76.9%) confirmatory PCRs, and 3357 (87.7%) and 1383 (90.1%) confirmatory PCR-positives, respectively.Monthly proportions of LFT positive with PCR negative varied between 4.7% and 35.3% in 12-18 years old (corresponding proportion of all tests positive: 9.7% and 0.3%).Deprivation and non-White ethnicity were associated with reduced uptake of confirmatory PCR., Interpretation: Substantial inequalities in confirmatory testing need more attention to avoid further disadvantage through education loss. When prevalence is low additional measures, including confirmatory testing, are needed. Local Directors of Public Health taking more control over schools testing may be needed., Funding: DHSC, MRC, NIHR, EPSRC., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health.)

Collecting information on multiple longitudinal outcomes is increasingly common in many clinical settings. In many cases, it is desirable to model these outcomes jointly. However, in large data sets, with many outcomes, computational burden often prevents the simultaneous modeling of multiple outcomes within a single model. We develop a mean field variational Bayes algorithm, to jointly model multiple Gaussian, Poisson, or binary longitudinal markers within a multivariate generalized linear mixed model. Through simulation studies and clinical applications (in the fields of sight threatening diabetic retinopathy and primary biliary cirrhosis), we demonstrate substantial computational savings of our approximate approach when compared to a standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo, while maintaining good levels of accuracy of model parameters., (© The Author 2021. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Objectives: Depression and anxiety are associated with more severe disease in cross-sectional studies of axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). We examined the association between baseline symptoms of depression or anxiety and response to TNF inhibitors (TNFi) in axSpA., Methods: Biologic naïve participants from a national axSpA register completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) before initiating TNFi. Symptoms of anxiety and depression were each categorized as moderate-severe (≥11), mild (8-10) and 'none' (≤7), and compared against change in disease indices [BASDAI and AS Disease Activity Score (ASDAS)] over time and time to treatment discontinuation using marginal structural models. Inverse-probability weights balanced baseline age, gender, BMI, deprivation, education and baseline values of respective disease indices., Results: Of the 742 participants (67% male, mean age 45 years), 176 (24%) had moderate-severe and 26% mild depression; 295 (40%) had moderate-severe and 23% mild anxiety. Baseline disease activity was higher in higher HADS symptom categories for both depression and anxiety. Participants with moderate-severe depression had significantly poorer response compared with those with 'none' throughout follow-up. At 6 months, the difference was approximately 2.2 BASDAI and 0.8 ASDAS units after balancing their baseline values. Equivalent comparisons for anxiety were 1.7 BASDAI and 0.7 ASDAS units. Treatment discontinuation was 1.59-fold higher (hazard ratio 95% CI: 1.12, 2.26) in participants with moderate-severe anxiety compared with 'none'., Conclusions: Symptoms of depression and anxiety at TNFi initiation are associated with poorer treatment outcomes. Targeted interventions to optimize mental health have potential to substantially improve treatment response and persistence., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Objective: Comorbidities influence disease assessment in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA), but their association with response to TNF inhibitors (TNFi) is unclear. We examined associations between comorbidity history at TNFi initiation and: (i) change in disease indices over time; (ii) binary response definitions; and (iii) time to treatment discontinuation., Methods: We studied participants starting their first TNFi from a national axSpA register. Comorbidity categories were created from 14 physician-diagnosed conditions and compared against: change in disease indices over time using linear mixed effects models; BASDAI50/2 (50% or 2-unit reduction) and BASDAI < 4 at 6 months using logistic models; and time to treatment discontinuation using Cox models. Models were adjusted for age, gender, BMI, deprivation and education., Results: In total, 994 were eligible for analysis (68% male, mean age 45 years); 21% had one comorbidity and 11% had ≥2. Baseline disease severity was higher in those with comorbidities across all indices, but absolute improvement over time was comparable for BASDAI and spinal pain. Participants with ≥2 comorbidities had smaller absolute improvement in BASFI and quality of life. This group also had numerically reduced odds of achieving BASDAI50/2 [odds ratio (OR) 0.81; 95% CI: 0.45, 1.45] and BASDAI < 4 (OR 0.57; 95% CI: 0.32, 1.04). Treatment discontinuation was increased in those with two comorbidities [hazard ratio (HR) 1.32; 95% CI: 0.88, 2.00] and ≥3 comorbidities (HR 2.18; 95% CI: 1.20, 3.93) compared with none., Conclusions: Participants with multiple comorbidities had poorer treatment outcomes, particularly increased treatment discontinuation and poorer improvements in function and quality of life. These results inform clinicians and educate patients about response to the first TNFi given comorbidity burden., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Objective: Whether comorbidities influence disease activity assessment in axial SpA (axSpA) is unclear. Comorbidities inflate DAS28 in rheumatoid arthritis through the patient global score. We examined whether axSpA disease activity measures are differentially affected, and whether comorbidities inflate the AS disease activity score (ASDAS) through the patient global component., Methods: We used baseline data from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for AS, including 14 physician diagnosed comorbidities. Linear models were used to compare disease activity (BASDAI, spinal pain, ASDAS) and ESR/CRP according to comorbidity count, adjusted for age, gender, BMI, smoking, socioeconomic status, and education. The same models were used to examine whether the patient global score was associated with comorbidities, additionally adjusting for other ASDAS components., Results: The number of participants eligible for analysis was 2043 (67% male, mean age 49 years); 44% had at least one comorbidity. Each additional comorbidity was associated with higher BASDAI by 0.40 units (95% CI: 0.27, 0.52) and spinal pain by 0.53 (95% CI: 0.37, 0.68). Effect size for ASDAS (0.09 units; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.15) was not clinically significant. ESR and CRP were not associated with comorbidity count. Depression, heart failure and peptic ulcer were consistently associated with higher disease activity measures, but not CRP/ESR. Patient global was associated with comorbidity count, but not independently of other ASDAS components (P = 0.75)., Conclusion: Comorbidities were associated with higher patient reported disease activity in axSpA. Clinicians should be mindful of the potential impact of comorbidities on patient reported outcome measures and consider additionally collecting ASDAS when comorbidities are present., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Background: Delay to diagnosis in axial SpA (axSpA) is longer than in many other rheumatic diseases. Prolonged delay is associate with poorer outcomes, including functional impairment and quality of life. Our aims were to describe global variation in delay to diagnosis, factors associated with delay, and delay compared with PsA., Methods: We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase and Web of Science using a predefined protocol. Diagnostic delay was defined as years between the age at symptom onset and at diagnosis. We pooled the mean delay using random effects inverse variance meta-analysis. We examined variations in pooled estimates using prespecified subgroup analyses and sources of heterogeneity using meta-regression., Results: A total of 64 studies reported the mean diagnostic delay in axSpA patients. The pooled mean delay was 6.7 years (95% CI 6.2, 7.2) with high levels of heterogeneity. Delay to diagnosis did not improve over time when stratifying results by year of publication. Studies from high-income countries (defined by the World Bank) reported longer delays than those from middle-income countries. Factors consistently reported to be associated with longer delays were lower education levels, younger age at symptom onset and absence of extra-articular manifestations (EAMs). The pooled estimate for diagnostic delay from 8 PsA studies was significantly shorter, at 2.6 years (95% CI 1.6, 3.6)., Conclusion: For axSpA patients, delay to diagnosis remains unacceptably prolonged in many parts of the world. Patient factors (e.g. education) and disease presentation (onset age and EAMs) should inform campaigns to improve delay., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: To describe the prevalence of extra-articular manifestations-enthesitis, dactylitis, nail disease, uveitis and IBD-in PsA, and their impact on longitudinal disease outcomes., Methods: We searched Medline, PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science using a predefined protocol in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Studies using imaging to define extra-articular manifestations (EAMs) were excluded. Where possible, we performed meta-analyses of prevalence estimates, reported as percentages (95% CI). Heterogeneity (I2 statistic) was examined according to study characteristics., Results: We identified 65 studies amounting to a total of 163 299 PsA patients. Enthesitis was assessed in 29 studies with an average prevalence of 30% (95% CI: 24%, 38%). Dactylitis was reported in 35 studies with an average prevalence of 25% (95% CI: 20%, 31%). Nail disease was present in 60% (95% CI: 52%, 68%) across 26 studies, but definitions were often unclear. Uveitis (3.2%; 95% CI: 1.9%, 5.3%) and IBD (3.3%; 95% CI: 1.5%, 7.1%) were less common. Heterogeneity was high (>95%) in all meta-analyses, but could not be explained by study characteristics. No studies examined the impact of EAMs on longitudinal disease outcomes, except that dactylitis increases radiographic progression., Conclusion: Enthesitis, dactylitis and nail disease are highly prevalent in PsA, but not uveitis and IBD. EAM patterns differ from axial SpA despite their shared disease mechanisms, which may help further understand differences between spondyloarthritides. More studies are needed on the impact of EAMs on disease outcomes such as response to treatment., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objectives: To compare a Bayesian clinical decision support (CDS) dose-optimizing software program with clinician judgement in individualizing vancomycin dosing regimens to achieve vancomycin pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) targets in a paediatric population., Methods: A retrospective review combined with a model-based simulation of vancomycin dosing was performed on children aged 1 year to 18 years at the University of California, San Francisco Benioff Children's Hospital Mission Bay. Dosing regimens recommended by the clinical pharmacists, 'clinician-guided', were compared with alternative 'CDS-guided' dosing regimens. The primary outcome was the percentage of occasions predicted to achieve steady-state trough levels within the target range of 10-15 mg/L, with a secondary outcome of predicted attainment of AUC24 ≥400 mg·h/L. Statistical comparison between approaches was performed using a standard t-test., Results: A total of n=144 patient occasions were included. CDS-guided regimens were predicted to achieve vancomycin steady-state troughs in the target range on 70.8% (102/144) of occasions, as compared with 37.5% (54/144) in the clinician-guided arm (P<0.0001). An AUC24 of ≥400 mg·h/L was achieved on 93% (112/121) of occasions in the CDS-guided arm versus 72% (87/121) of occasions in the clinician-guided arm (P<0.0001)., Conclusions: In a simulated analysis, the use of a Bayesian CDS tool was better than clinician judgement in recommending vancomycin dosing regimens in which PK/PD targets would be attained in children., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.)

Objectives: To examine how comorbidities cluster in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) and whether these clusters are associated with quality of life, global health and other outcome measures., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study of consecutive patients meeting ASAS criteria for axSpA in Liverpool, UK. Outcome measures included quality of life (EQ5D), global health and disease activity (BASDAI). We used hierarchical cluster analysis to group patients according to 38 pre-specified comorbidities. In multivariable linear models, the associations between distinct comorbidity clusters and each outcome measure were compared, using axSpA patients with no comorbidities as the reference group. Analyses were adjusted for age, gender, symptom duration, BMI, deprivation, NSAID-use and smoking., Results: We studied 419 patients (69% male, mean age 46 years). 255 patients (61%) had at least one comorbidity, among whom the median number was 1 (range 1-6). Common comorbidities were hypertension (19%) and depression (16%). Of 15 clusters identified, the most prevalent clusters were hypertension-coronary heart disease and depression-anxiety. Compared with patients with no comorbidities, the fibromyalgia-irritable bowel syndrome cluster was associated with adverse patient-reported outcome measures; these patients reported 1.5-unit poorer global health (95%CI 0.01, 2.9), reduced quality of life (0.25-unit lower EQ5D; 95%CI -0.37, -0.12) and 1.8-unit higher BASDAI (95% CI 0.4, 3.3). Similar effect estimates were found for patients in the depression-anxiety cluster., Conclusion: Comorbidity is common among axSpA patients. The two most common comorbidities were hypertension and depression. Patients in the depression-anxiety and fibromyalgia-IBS clusters reported poorer health and increased axSpA severity., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: The effects of smoking on disease manifestations in axial SpA are inadequately described. Utilizing a large and well-characterized cohort, we investigated the association between smoking and extra-axial manifestations, and smoking and disease severity measures., Methods: Baseline data from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for Ankylosing Spondylitis were explored. Our analyses focused on extra-axial manifestations and other disease severity measures, including scales for fatigue, sleep, anxiety and depression. Logistic and linear models were used to quantify associations between disease characteristics according to smoking status (current/ex/never) and quantity (heavy/light), adjusting for age, gender, BMI, education, deprivation, comorbidities, symptom duration and alcohol status., Results: A total of 2031 participants were eligible for the current analysis (68% male, mean age 49 years). Of these, 24% were current and 32% ex-smokers. When compared with non-smokers, current smokers had lower odds of uveitis [OR 0.7, 95% CI 0.5-0.9] and higher odds of psoriasis (ORadj 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.3). Ex- and current smokers had incrementally more severe disease than never smokers, with higher BASDAI (β = 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-0.6; β = 0.9, 95% CI 0.6-1.2) and BASFI (β = 0.5, 95% CI 0.2-0.8; β = 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6); similar associations were observed for fatigue, sleep, anxiety and depression., Conclusion: In this large cross-sectional study, we observed that smoking is independently associated with an adverse disease profile in axial SpA, including worse fatigue, sleep, anxiety and depression, and higher odds of psoriasis. The paradoxical association between current smoking and reduced odds of uveitis is interesting and warrants further investigation., (© The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)