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Purpose: The 2024 ASHP Pharmacy Forecast identifies and contextualizes emerging issues and trends that will influence healthcare, health systems, and the pharmacy profession and provides recommendations to inform long-term strategic planning that should prompt action by pharmacists and health-system leaders., Methods: Drawing on the “wisdom of crowds” concept, a survey was constructed with 6 general themes, each with 6 to 9 focused statements and a seventh theme on preparedness (58 survey items in total). The size of and representation within the survey panel were intended to capture opinions from a wide range of pharmacy leaders. The survey instructed panelists to consider the likelihood of the events/scenarios described in the statements occurring in the next 5 years as being likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely. Then, survey panelists assessed the preparedness (from very unprepared to very prepared) for 12 of the statements., Results: The 6 survey themes identified were Urgent Public Health Priorities, Responding to the Mental Health Crisis, Achieving Care Equity, New Disease Paradigms and Treatment Innovations, Workforce: Focus on Culture for the Future, and Artificial Intelligence: Can Ethics and Regulators Catch Up? The survey was completed by 250 respondents, yielding an 88% response rate. Analysis of survey results was provided by chapter authors along with strategic recommendations to guide actions for each theme., Conclusion: The focus of the Pharmacy Forecast is on large-scale, long-term trends that will influence healthcare and the pharmacy profession over months and years and not on day-to-day situational dynamics. The report provides insight to stimulate thinking and discussion and provides a starting point to proactively position leaders, their teams, and departments for potential future events and trends.

Introduction: Racial/ethnic disparities exist in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), despite financial barriers to care being largely mitigated and Veterans Administration's (VA) organizational commitment to health equity. Accurately identifying minority veterans is critical to monitoring progress toward equity as the VHA treats an increasingly racially and ethnically diverse veteran population. Although the VHA's completeness of race and ethnicity data is generally better than its public sector and private counterparts, the accuracy of the race and ethnicity in the various databases available to VHA is variable, as is the accuracy in identifying specific minority groups. The purpose of this article was to develop an algorithm for constructing race and ethnicity variables from data sources available to VHA researchers, to present demographic differences cross the data sources, and to apply the algorithm to one study year., Materials and Methods: We used existing VHA survey data from the Survey of Healthcare Experiences of Patients (SHEP) and three commonly used administrative databases from 2003 to 2015: the VA Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW), VA Defense Identity Repository (VADIR), and Medicare. Using measures of agreement such as sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and Cohen kappa, we compared self-reported race and ethnicity from the SHEP and each of the other data sources. Based on these results, we propose an algorithm for combining data on race and ethnicity from these datasets. We included VHA patients who completed a SHEP and had race/ethnicity recorded in CDW, VADIR, and/or Medicare., Results: Agreement between SHEP and other sources was high for Whites and Blacks and substantially lower for other minority groups. The CDW demonstrated better agreement than VADIR or Medicare., Conclusions: We developed an algorithm of data source precedence in the VHA that improves the accuracy of the identification of historically under-identified minorities: (1) SHEP, (2) CDW, (3) Department of Defense's VADIR, and (4) Medicare., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Association of Military Surgeons of the United States 2019. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.)

Objective: Transgender individuals are vulnerable to negative health risks and outcomes, but research remains limited because data sources, such as electronic medical records (EMRs), lack standardized collection of gender identity information. Most EMR do not include the gold standard of self-identified gender identity, but International Classification of Diseases (ICDs) includes diagnostic codes indicating transgender-related clinical services. However, it is unclear if these codes can indicate transgender status. The objective of this study was to determine the extent to which patients' clinician notes in EMR contained transgender-related terms that could corroborate ICD-coded transgender identity., Methods: Data are from the US Department of Veterans Affairs Corporate Data Warehouse. Transgender patients were defined by the presence of ICD9 and ICD10 codes associated with transgender-related clinical services, and a 3:1 comparison group of nontransgender patients was drawn. Patients' clinician text notes were extracted and searched for transgender-related words and phrases., Results: Among 7560 patients defined as transgender based on ICD codes, the search algorithm identified 6753 (89.3%) with transgender-related terms. Among 22 072 patients defined as nontransgender without ICD codes, 246 (1.1%) had transgender-related terms; after review, 11 patients were identified as transgender, suggesting a 0.05% false negative rate., Conclusions: Using ICD-defined transgender status can facilitate health services research when self-identified gender identity data are not available in EMR.

Hookah tobacco smoking is increasing among US college students, including those who would not otherwise use tobacco. Part of hookah's appeal is attributed to the perception that hookah is less harmful than cigarettes. The aims of this study were to assess knowledge of harmful exposures associated with hookah smoking relative to cigarette smoking and to determine associations between this knowledge and hookah smoking outcomes. Students (N = 852) at the University of Florida were randomly sampled via e-mail to obtain information on demographics, hookah smoking behavior and knowledge of five exposures (e.g. tar and nicotine). Multivariable logistic regression models assessed independent associations between knowledge and hookah smoking outcomes. Of the five factual knowledge items asked, 475 (55.8%) of the respondents answered none correctly. In multivariable models, correct responses to any knowledge items were not associated with lower odds of hookah smoking or susceptibility to hookah smoking in the future. Although college students are largely unaware of the toxicant exposures associated with hookah smoking, there is little association between knowledge and hookah smoking behavior.

Introduction: While cigarette use is declining, smoking tobacco with a waterpipe is an emerging trend. We aimed to determine the prevalence of waterpipe use in a large diverse sample of U.S. university students and to assess the association of waterpipe use with individual and institution-related characteristics., Methods: We assessed students from 152 U.S. universities participating in the National College Health Assessment during 2008-2009. We used multivariable regression models to determine independent associations between individual and institutional characteristics and waterpipe tobacco use in the past 30 days and ever., Results: Of 105,012 respondents included in the analysis, most were female (65.7%), White (71.2%), and attending public (59.7%) nonreligious (83.1%) institutions. Mean age was 22.1 years. A total of 32,013 (30.5%) reported ever using a waterpipe to smoke tobacco. Rates for current tobacco use were 8.4% for waterpipes, 16.8% for cigarettes, 7.4% for cigars (including cigarillos), and 3.5% for smokeless tobacco. Of current waterpipe users, 51.4% were not current cigarette smokers. Although current waterpipe use was reported across all individual and institutional characteristics, fully adjusted multivariable models showed that it was most strongly associated with younger age, male gender, White race, fraternity/sorority membership, and nonreligious institutions in large cities in the western United States., Conclusions: After cigarettes, waterpipe use was the most common form of tobacco use among university students. Because waterpipe use affects groups with a wide variety of individual and institutional characteristics, it should be included with other forms of tobacco in efforts related to tobacco surveillance and intervention.

Background: Studies suggest that statins and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors might be beneficial for the treatment of infections. Our purpose was to examine the association of statin, ACE inhibitor, and angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB) use with pneumonia-related outcomes., Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using Department of Veterans Affairs data of patients aged ≥ 65 years hospitalized with pneumonia. We performed propensity-score matching for 3 medication classes simultaneously., Results: Of 50119 potentially eligible patients, we matched 11498 cases with 11498 controls. Mortality at 30 days was 13%; 34% used statins, 30% ACE inhibitors, and 4% ARBs. In adjusted models, prior statin use was associated with decreased mortality (odds ratio [OR], 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], .68-.82) and mechanical ventilation (OR, 0.81; 95% CI, .70-.94), and inpatient use with decreased mortality (OR, 0.68; 95% CI, .59-.78) and mechanical ventilation (OR, 0.68; 95% CI, .60-.90). Prior (OR, 0.88; 95% CI, .80-.97) and inpatient (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, .48-.69) ACE inhibitor use was associated with decreased mortality. Prior (OR, 0.73; 95% CI, .58-.92) and inpatient ARB use (OR, 0.47; 95% CI, .30-.72) was only associated with decreased mortality. Use of all 3 medications was associated with reduced length of stay., Conclusions: Statins, and to a lesser extent ACE inhibitors and ARBs, are associated with improved pneumonia-related outcomes. Prospective cohort and randomized controlled trials are needed to examine potential mechanisms of action and whether acute initiation at the time of presentation with these infections is beneficial.

Background: Many emergency department (ED) providers do not follow guideline recommendations for the use of the pneumonia severity index (PSI) to determine the initial site of treatment for patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We identified the reasons why ED providers hospitalize low-risk patients or manage higher-risk patients as outpatients., Methods: As a part of a trial to implement a PSI-based guideline for the initial site of treatment of patients with CAP, we analyzed data for patients managed at 12 EDs allocated to a high-intensity guideline implementation strategy study arm. The guideline recommended outpatient care for low-risk patients (nonhypoxemic patients with a PSI risk classification of I, II, or III) and hospitalization for higher-risk patients (hypoxemic patients or patients with a PSI risk classification of IV or V). We asked providers who made guideline-discordant decisions on site of treatment to detail the reasons for nonadherence to guideline recommendations., Results: There were 1,306 patients with CAP (689 low-risk patients and 617 higher-risk patients). Among these patients, physicians admitted 258 (37.4%) of 689 low-risk patients and treated 20 (3.2%) of 617 higher-risk patients as outpatients. The most commonly reported reasons for admitting low-risk patients were the presence of a comorbid illness (178 [71.5%] of 249 patients); a laboratory value, vital sign, or symptom that precluded ED discharge (73 patients [29.3%]); or a recommendation from a primary care or a consulting physician (48 patients [19.3%]). Higher-risk patients were most often treated as outpatients because of a recommendation by a primary care or consulting physician (6 [40.0%] of 15 patients)., Conclusion: ED providers hospitalize many low-risk patients with CAP, most frequently for a comorbid illness. Although higher-risk patients are infrequently treated as outpatients, this decision is often based on the request of an involved physician.

The prognosis of community-acquired pneumonia ranges from rapid resolution of symptoms and full recovery of functional status to the development of severe medical complications and death. The pneumonia severity index is a rigorously studied prediction rule for prognosis that objectively stratifies patients into quintiles of risk for short-term mortality on the basis of 20 demographic and clinical variables routinely available at presentation. The pneumonia severity index was derived and validated with data on >50,000 patients with community-acquired pneumonia by use of well-accepted methodological standards and is the only pneumonia decision aid that has been empirically shown to safely increase the proportion of patients given treatment in the outpatient setting. Because of its prognostic accuracy, methodological rigor, and effectiveness and safety as a decision aid, the pneumonia severity index has become the reference standard for risk stratification of community-acquired pneumonia.

Background: Existing severity assessment tools, such as the pneumonia severity index (PSI) and CURB-65 (tool based on confusion, urea level, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age >or=65 years), predict 30-day mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and have limited ability to predict which patients will require intensive respiratory or vasopressor support (IRVS)., Methods: The Australian CAP Study (ACAPS) was a prospective study of 882 episodes in which each patient had a detailed assessment of severity features, etiology, and treatment outcomes. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify features at initial assessment that were associated with receipt of IRVS. These results were converted into a simple points-based severity tool that was validated in 5 external databases, totaling 7464 patients., Results: In ACAPS, 10.3% of patients received IRVS, and the 30-day mortality rate was 5.7%. The features statistically significantly associated with receipt of IRVS were low systolic blood pressure (2 points), multilobar chest radiography involvement (1 point), low albumin level (1 point), high respiratory rate (1 point), tachycardia (1 point), confusion (1 point), poor oxygenation (2 points), and low arterial pH (2 points): SMART-COP. A SMART-COP score of >or=3 points identified 92% of patients who received IRVS, including 84% of patients who did not need immediate admission to the intensive care unit. Accuracy was also high in the 5 validation databases. Sensitivities of PSI and CURB-65 for identifying the need for IRVS were 74% and 39%, respectively., Conclusions: SMART-COP is a simple, practical clinical tool for accurately predicting the need for IRVS that is likely to assist clinicians in determining CAP severity.

Background: Rehospitalization after inpatient treatment of community-acquired pneumonia occurs in one-tenth of all hospitalizations, but the clinical circumstances surrounding readmission to the hospital have not been well studied. The objective of this study was to identify the causes and risk factors for rehospitalization of inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia., Methods: This project was performed as part of a randomized, multicenter, controlled trial of the implementation of practice guidelines to reduce the duration of intravenous antibiotic therapy and duration of hospitalization for patients who have received a clinical and radiographic diagnosis of pneumonia. The trial was conducted at 7 hospitals in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, from February 1998 through March 1999. The primary outcome for these analyses was rehospitalization within 30 days after the index hospitalization. Two physicians independently assigned the cause of rehospitalization as pneumonia related, comorbidity related, or both; consensus was reached for all assignments. Patient demographic characteristics and clinical factors independently associated with rehospitalization were identified using multiple logistic regression analysis., Results: Of the 577 patients discharged after hospitalization for community-acquired pneumonia, 70 (12%) were rehospitalized within 30 days. The median time to rehospitalization was 8 days (interquartile range, 4-13 days). Overall, 52 rehospitalizations (74%) were comorbidity related, and 14 (20%) were pneumonia related. The most frequent comorbid conditions responsible for rehospitalization were cardiovascular (n = 19), pulmonary (n = 6) and neurological (n = 6) in origin. Less than a high school education (odds ratio, 2.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-3.4), unemployment (odds ratio, 3.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-12.3), coronary artery disease (odds ratio, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-4.7), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (odds ratio, 2.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-4.1) were independently associated with rehospitalization., Conclusions: The majority of rehospitalizations following pneumonia are comorbidity related and are the result of underlying cardiopulmonary and/or neurologic diseases. Careful attention to the clinical stability of patients with these coexisting conditions at and following hospital discharge may decrease the frequency of rehospitalization of patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

Background: Although the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) has been extensively validated, little is known of the impact of its routine use as an aid to site-of-treatment decisions for patients with pneumonia who present to emergency departments (EDs)., Methods: A prospective, observational, controlled cohort study of patients with pneumonia was conducted in 8 EDs that used the PSI (PSI-user EDs) and 8 EDs that did not use the PSI (PSI-nonuser EDs) in France. The outcomes examined included the proportion of "low-risk" patients (PSI risk classes I-III) treated as outpatients, all-cause 28-day mortality, admission of inpatients to the intensive care unit, and subsequent hospitalization of outpatients., Results: Of the 925 patients enrolled in the study, 472 (51.0%) were treated at PSI-user EDs, and 453 (49.0%) were treated at PSI-nonuser EDs; 449 (48.5%) of all patients were considered to be at low risk. In PSI-user EDs, 92 (42.8%) of 215 patients at low risk were treated as outpatients, compared with 56 (23.9%) of 234 patients at low risk in PSI-nonuser EDs. The adjusted odds ratios for outpatient treatment were higher for patients in PSI risk classes I and II who were treated in PSI-user EDs, compared with PSI-nonuser EDs (adjusted odds ratio, 7.0 [95% confidence interval, 2.0-25.0] and 4.6 [95% confidence interval, 1.3-16.2], respectively), whereas the adjusted odds ratio did not differ by PSI-user status among patients in risk class III or among patients at high risk. After adjusting for pneumonia severity, mortality was lower in patients who were treated in PSI-user EDs; other safety outcomes did not differ between patients treated in PSI-user and PSI-nonuser EDs., Conclusions: The routine use of the PSI was associated with a larger proportion of patients in PSI risk classes I and II who had pneumonia and who were treated in the outpatient environment without compromising their safety.

Background: Although studies have shown that African American haemodialysis patients report better overall quality of life than Whites, racial differences in depression and symptom burden remain less well characterized. The aim of this study was to compare these domains between African American and White patients on chronic haemodialysis., Methods: We surveyed African American and White maintenance haemodialysis patients. Depression was assessed using the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and Cognitive Depression Index (CDI). Symptoms were evaluated using the Dialysis Symptom Index (DSI)., Results: Among the 82 Whites and 78 African Americans enrolled, there were no racial differences in the prevalence of depression (27% in African Americans vs 27% in Whites, P = 1.0), BDI Scores (11.2 vs 10.9, P = 0.6) or CDI scores (6.0 vs 6.0, P = 0.9). Symptom burden was substantial in both African Americans and Whites (median number of symptoms 8.5 and 9.0, respectively) with no racial differences in the overall burden or severity of symptoms. However, based on a single item, African Americans were more likely to describe their religious/spiritual beliefs as "very important". Adjustment for demographic and treatment characteristics had no impact on the associations of race with depression or symptoms., Conclusions: Depression and symptoms are highly prevalent in both African American and White haemodialysis patients, without racial differences in these health-related domains. In exploratory analyses, spiritual/religious beliefs appear to be of greater importance to African Americans. The relevance of these observations to the advantages in quality of life and survival among African Americans on haemodialysis warrants further investigation.

Aims: To validate a model for quantifying the prognosis of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). The model was previously derived from 10 534 US patients., Methods and Results: We validated the model in 367 patients prospectively diagnosed with PE at 117 European emergency departments. We used baseline data for the model's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V). We compared 90-day mortality within each risk class and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between the validation and the original derivation samples. We also assessed the rate of recurrent venous thrombo-embolism and major bleeding within each risk class. Mortality was 0% in Risk Class I, 1.0% in Class II, 3.1% in Class III, 10.4% in Class IV, and 24.4% in Class V and did not differ between the validation and the original derivation samples. The area under the curve was larger in the validation sample (0.87 vs. 0.78, P=0.01). No patients in Classes I and II developed recurrent thrombo-embolism or major bleeding., Conclusion: The model accurately stratifies patients with PE into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other relevant complications. Patients in Risk Classes I and II are at low risk of adverse outcomes and are potential candidates for outpatient treatment.

Although studies have assessed short-term mortality among patients with community-acquired pneumonia, there is limited data on prognosis and risk factors that affect long-term mortality. The mortality among patients enrolled at 4 sites of the Pneumonia Patient Outcome Research Team cohort study who survived at least 90 days after presentation to the hospital was compared with that among age-matched control subjects. Overall, 1419 of 1555 patients survived for >90 days, with a mean follow-up period of 5.9 years. There was significantly higher long-term mortality among patients with pneumonia than among age-matched controls. Factors significantly associated with long-term mortality were age (stratified by decade), do-not-resuscitate status, poor nutritional status, pleural effusion, glucocorticoid use, nursing home residence, high school graduation level or less, male sex, preexisting comorbid illnesses, and the lack of feverishness. This study demonstrates that there is significantly higher long-term mortality among patients with pneumonia than among age-matched controls and that long-term mortality largely is not affected by acute physiologic derangements.

The Notes section welcomes the following types of contributions: (1) practical innovations or solutions to everyday practice problems, (2) substantial updates or elaborations on work previously published by the same authors, (3) important confirmations of research findings previously published by others, and (4) short research reports, including practice surveys, of modest scope or interest. Notes should be submitted with AJHP's manuscript checklist. The text should be concise, and the number of references, tables, and figures should be limited.

The impact of penicillin susceptibility on medical outcomes for adult patients with bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia was evaluated in a retrospective cohort study conducted during population-based surveillance for invasive pneumococcal disease in the greater Atlanta region during 1994. Of the 192 study patients, 44 (23%) were infected with pneumococcal strains that demonstrated some degree of penicillin nonsusceptibility. Compared with patients infected with penicillin-susceptible pneumococcal strains, patients whose isolates were nonsusceptible had a significantly greater risk of in-hospital death due to pneumonia (relative risk [RR], 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1-4.3) and suppurative complications of infection (RR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1-19.3), although only risk of suppurative complications remained statistically significant after adjustment for baseline differences in severity of illness. Among adults with bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia, infection with penicillin-nonsusceptible pneumococci is associated with an increased risk of adverse outcome.