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Background and Aims: Posterior wall isolation (PWI) is commonly incorporated into catheter ablation (CA) strategies for persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) in an attempt to improve outcomes. In the CAPLA randomized study, adjunctive PWI did not improve freedom from atrial arrhythmia at 12 months compared with pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) alone. Whether additional PWI reduces arrhythmia recurrence over the longer term remains unknown., Methods: In this multi-centre, international, randomized study patients with persistent AF undergoing index CA using radiofrequency were randomized to PVI + PWI vs. PVI alone. Patients underwent regular follow-up including rhythm monitoring for a minimum of 3 years after CA. Atrial fibrillation burden at 3 years after ablation was evaluated with either 28-day continuous ambulatory electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring, twice daily single-lead ECG or from cardiac implanted device. Evaluated endpoints included freedom from any documented atrial arrhythmia recurrence after a single procedure, AF burden, need for redo CA, rhythm at last clinical follow-up, healthcare utilization metrics, and AF-related quality of life., Results: Three hundred thirty-three of 338 (98.5%) patients (mean age 64.3 ± 9.4 years, 23% female) completed 3-year follow-up, with 169 patients randomized to PVI + PWI and 164 patients to PVI alone. At a median of 3.62 years after index ablation, freedom from recurrent atrial arrhythmia occurred in 59 patients (35.5%) randomized to PVI + PWI vs. 68 patients (42.1%) randomized to PVI alone (hazard ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.51, P = .55). Median time to recurrent atrial arrhythmia was 0.53 years (interquartile range 0.34-1.01 years). Redo ablation was performed in 54 patients (32.0%) in the PVI + PWI group vs. 49 patients (29.9%, P = .68) in the PVI alone group. Pulmonary vein reconnection was present in 54.5% (mean number of reconnected PVs 2.2 ± .9) and posterior wall reconnection in 75%. Median AF burden at 3 years was 0% in both groups (interquartile range 0%-0.85% PVI + PWI vs. 0%-1.43% PVI alone, P = .49). Sinus rhythm at final clinical follow-up was present in 85.1% with PVI + PWI vs. 87.1% with PVI alone (P = .60). Mean AF Effect On Quality-Of-Life (AFEQT) score at 3 years after ablation was 88.0 ± 14.8 with PVI + PWI vs. 88.9 ± 15.4 with PVI alone (P = .63)., Conclusions: In patients with persistent AF, the addition of PWI to PVI alone at index radiofrequency CA did not significantly improve freedom from atrial arrhythmia recurrence at long-term follow-up. Median AF burden remains low and AF quality of life high at 3 years with either ablation strategy., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background and Aims: Patterns of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence post-catheter ablation for persistent AF (PsAF) are not well described. This study aimed to describe the pattern of AF recurrence seen following catheter ablation for PsAF and the implications for healthcare utilization and quality of life (QoL)., Methods: This was a post-hoc analysis of the CAPLA study, an international, multicentre study that randomized patients with symptomatic PsAF to pulmonary vein isolation plus posterior wall isolation or pulmonary vein isolation alone. Patients underwent twice daily single lead ECG, implantable device monitoring or three monthly Holter monitoring., Results: 154 of 333 (46.2%) patients (median age 67.3 years, 28% female) experienced AF recurrence at 12-month follow-up. Recurrence was paroxysmal in 97 (63%) patients and persistent in 57 (37%). Recurrence type did not differ between randomization groups (P = .508). Median AF burden was 27.4% in PsAF recurrence and .9% in paroxysmal AF (PAF) recurrence (P < .001). Patients with PsAF recurrence had lower baseline left ventricular ejection fraction (PsAF 50% vs. PAF 60%, P < .001) and larger left atrial volume (PsAF 54.2 ± 19.3 mL/m² vs. PAF 44.8 ± 11.6 mL/m², P = .008). Healthcare utilization was significantly higher in PsAF (45 patients [78.9%]) vs. PAF recurrence (45 patients [46.4%], P < .001) and lowest in those without recurrence (17 patients [9.5%], P < .001). Patients without AF recurrence had greater improvements in QoL as assessed by the Atrial Fibrillation Effect on Quality-of-Life (AFEQT) questionnaire (Δ33.3 ± 25.2 points) compared to those with PAF (Δ24.0 ± 25.0 points, P = .012) or PsAF (Δ13.4 ± 22.9 points, P < .001) recurrence., Conclusions: AF recurrence is more often paroxysmal after catheter ablation for PsAF irrespective of ablation strategy. Recurrent PsAF was associated with higher AF burden, increased healthcare utilization and antiarrhythmic drug use. The type of AF recurrence and AF burden may be considered important endpoints in clinical trials investigating ablation of PsAF., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Aims: Lifestyle risk factors are a modifiable target in atrial fibrillation (AF) management. The relative contribution of individual lifestyle risk factors to AF development has not been described. Development and validation of an AF lifestyle risk score to identify individuals at risk of AF in the general population are the aims of the study., Methods and Results: The UK Biobank (UKB) and Framingham Heart Study (FHS) are large prospective cohorts with outcomes measured >10 years. Incident AF was based on International Classification of Diseases version 10 coding. Prior AF was excluded. Cox proportional hazards regression identified independent AF predictors, which were evaluated in a multivariable model. A weighted score was developed in the UKB and externally validated in the FHS. Kaplan-Meier estimates ascertained the risk of AF development. Among 314 280 UKB participants, AF incidence was 5.7%, with median time to AF 7.6 years (interquartile range 4.5-10.2). Hypertension, age, body mass index, male sex, sleep apnoea, smoking, and alcohol were predictive variables (all P < 0.001); physical inactivity [hazard ratio (HR) 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96-1.05, P = 0.80] and diabetes (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.97-1.09, P = 0·38) were not significant. The HARMS2-AF score had similar predictive performance [area under the curve (AUC) 0.782] to the unweighted model (AUC 0.802) in the UKB. External validation in the FHS (AF incidence 6.0% of 7171 participants) demonstrated an AUC of 0.757 (95% CI 0.735-0.779). A higher HARMS2-AF score (≥5 points) was associated with a heightened AF risk (score 5-9: HR 12.79; score 10-14: HR 38.70). The HARMS2-AF risk model outperformed the Framingham-AF (AUC 0.568) and ARIC (AUC 0.713) risk models (both P < 0.001) and was comparable to the CHARGE-AF risk score (AUC 0.754, P = 0.73)., Conclusion: The HARMS2-AF score is a novel lifestyle risk score which may help identify individuals at risk of AF in the general community and assist population screening., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Catheter ablation is an effective strategy in atrial fibrillation (AF). However, its timing in the course of management remains unclear. The aim of this study was to determine if an early vs. delayed AF ablation strategy is associated with differences in arrhythmia outcomes during 12-month follow-up., Methods and Results: One hundred patients with symptomatic AF referred to a tertiary centre for management were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to either an early ablation strategy (within 1 month of recruitment) or a delayed ablation strategy (optimized medical therapy followed by catheter ablation at 12 months post recruitment). The primary endpoint was atrial arrhythmia free survival at 12 months post-ablation. Secondary outcomes included: (i) AF burden, (ii) AF burden by AF phenotype, and (iii) antiarrhythmic drug (AAD) use at 12 months. Overall, 89 patients completed the study protocol (Early vs. Delayed: 48 vs. 41). Mean age was 59 ± 12.9 years (29% women). Pulmonary vein isolation was achieved in 100% of patients. At 12 months, 56.3% of patients in the early ablation group were free from recurrent arrhythmia, compared with 58.6% in the delayed ablation group (HR 1.12, 95% CI 0.59-2.13, P = 0.7). All secondary outcomes showed no significant difference including median AF burden (Early vs. Delayed: 0% [IQR 3.2] vs. 0% [5], P = 0.66), median AF burden amongst paroxysmal AF patients (0% [IQR 1.1] vs. 0% [4.5], P = 0.78), or persistent AF patients (0% [IQR 22.8] vs. 0% [5.6], P = 0.45) or AAD use (33% vs. 37%, P = 0.8)., Conclusion: Compared with an early ablation strategy, delaying AF ablation by 12 months for AAD management did not result in reduced ablation efficacy., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest All authors declare no conflict of interest for this contribution., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Aims: Radiofrequency (RF) ablation for pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) in atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with the risk of oesophageal thermal injury (ETI). Higher power short duration (HPSD) ablation results in preferential local resistive heating over distal conductive heating. Although HPSD has become increasingly common, no randomized study has compared ETI risk with conventional lower power longer duration (LPLD) ablation. This study aims to compare HPSD vs. LPLD ablation on ETI risk., Methods and Results: Eighty-eight patients were randomized 1:1 to HPSD or LPLD posterior wall (PW) ablation. Posterior wall ablation was 40 W (HPSD group) or 25 W (LPLD group), with target AI (ablation index) 400/LSI (lesion size index) 4. Anterior wall ablation was 40-50 W, with a target AI 500-550/LSI 5-5.5. Endoscopy was performed on Day 1. The primary endpoint was ETI incidence. The mean age was 61 ± 9 years (31% females). The incidence of ETI (superficial ulcers n = 4) was 4.5%, with equal occurrence in HPSD and LPLD (P = 1.0). There was no difference in the median value of maximal oesophageal temperature (HPSD 38.6°C vs. LPLD 38.7°C, P = 0.43), or the median number of lesions per patient with temperature rise above 39°C (HPSD 1.5 vs. LPLD 2, P = 0.93). Radiofrequency ablation time (23.8 vs. 29.7 min, P < 0.01), PVI duration (46.5 vs. 59 min, P = 0.01), and procedure duration (133 vs. 150 min, P = 0.05) were reduced in HPSD. After a median follow-up of 12 months, AF recurrence was lower in HPSD (15.9% vs. LPLD 34.1%; hazard ratio 0.42, log-rank P = 0.04)., Conclusion: Higher power short duration ablation was associated with similarly low rates of ETI and shorter total/PVI RF ablation times when compared with LPLD ablation. Higher power short duration ablation is a safe and efficacious approach to PVI., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: D.C. is supported by co-funded NHMRC/NHF post-graduate scholarship. The following industry funding sources regarding activities outside the submitted work have been declared in accordance with ICMJE guidelines. P.M.K. has received funding from Abbott Medical for consultancy and speaking engagements and fellowship support from Biosense Webster. J.M.K. holds a Practitioner Fellowship of the NHMRC and has research and fellowship support from Medtronic, Abbott and Biosense Webster. S.P. has a NHMRC Post Doctoral Research Fellowship. A.V. has a National Heart Foundation Early Career Fellowship. The remaining authors have nothing to disclose., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Aims: Epidemiological studies report the beneficial effects of habitual coffee consumption on incident arrhythmia, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and mortality. However, the impact of different coffee preparations on cardiovascular outcomes and survival is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate associations between coffee subtypes on incident outcomes, utilizing the UK Biobank., Methods and Results: Coffee subtypes were defined as decaffeinated, ground, and instant, then divided into 0, <1, 1, 2-3, 4-5, and >5 cups/day, and compared with non-drinkers. Cardiovascular disease included coronary heart disease, cardiac failure, and ischaemic stroke. Cox regression modelling with hazard ratios (HRs) assessed associations with incident arrhythmia, CVD, and mortality. Outcomes were determined through ICD codes and death records. A total of 449 563 participants (median 58 years, 55.3% females) were followed over 12.5 ± 0.7 years. Ground and instant coffee consumption was associated with a significant reduction in arrhythmia at 1-5 cups/day but not for decaffeinated coffee. The lowest risk was 4-5 cups/day for ground coffee [HR 0.83, confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.91, P < 0.0001] and 2-3 cups/day for instant coffee (HR 0.88, CI 0.85-0.92, P < 0.0001). All coffee subtypes were associated with a reduction in incident CVD (the lowest risk was 2-3 cups/day for decaffeinated, P = 0.0093; ground, P < 0.0001; and instant coffee, P < 0.0001) vs. non-drinkers. All-cause mortality was significantly reduced for all coffee subtypes, with the greatest risk reduction seen with 2-3 cups/day for decaffeinated (HR 0.86, CI 0.81-0.91, P < 0.0001); ground (HR 0.73, CI 0.69-0.78, P < 0.0001); and instant coffee (HR 0.89, CI 0.86-0.93, P < 0.0001)., Conclusion: Decaffeinated, ground, and instant coffee, particularly at 2-3 cups/day, were associated with significant reductions in incident CVD and mortality. Ground and instant but not decaffeinated coffee was associated with reduced arrhythmia., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: D.C. is supported by cofunded NHMRC/NHF post-graduate scholarship. The following industry funding sources regarding activities outside the submitted work have been declared in accordance with ICMJE guidelines. P.M.K. has received funding from Abbott Medical for consultancy and speaking engagements and fellowship support from Biosense Webster. J.M.K. holds a Practitioner Fellowship of the NHMRC and has research and fellowship support from Medtronic, Abbott, and Biosense Webster. D.M.K. is the recipient of an NHMRC Research Fellowship. S.P. has an NHMRC Post-Doctoral Research Fellowship. A.V. has a National Heart Foundation Early Career Fellowship. The remaining authors have nothing to disclose., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Atrial fibrillation (AF) outcome studies play an essential role in the development of clinical evidence to improve the management of AF patients. Understanding the statistical considerations involved in study design and interpretation is crucial if electrophysiologists are to change practice. In this review, with the guidance of a medical statistician and a clinical trialist we provide an overview of important statistical issues for the clinician, with a focus on clinical studies in AF ablation. Various types of study designs including randomized controlled trials, superiority, and non-inferiority studies are described, along with their implications and limitations. Appropriate sample size calculation is fundamental to ensure statistical power and efficient resource use. Multiplicity in study endpoints is useful to encapsulate the varied effects of an intervention/treatment, although statistical adjustments are required to account for this. Finally, we discuss the limitations with the current primary endpoint used in AF ablation studies, namely, freedom from atrial tachyarrhythmia of >30 seconds, and propose AF burden as a more relevant primary endpoint, based on findings from recent clinical studies. However, technical challenges need to be overcome before AF burden can be routinely adopted, especially the need for non-invasive, long-term monitoring. The emergence of newer technologies, particularly wearable technology, offers significant promise in filling this gap., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2020. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)