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Evolutionary biologists have an array of powerful theoretical techniques that can accurately predict changes in the genetic composition of populations. Changes in gene frequencies and genetic associations between loci can be tracked as they respond to a wide variety of evolutionary forces. However, it is often less clear how to decompose these various forces into components that accurately reflect the underlying biology. Here, we present several issues that arise in the definition and interpretation of selection and selection coefficients, focusing on insights gained through the examination of selection coefficients in multilocus notation. Using this notation, we discuss how its flexibility-which allows different biological units to be identified as targets of selection-is reflected in the interpretation of the coefficients that the notation generates. In many situations, it can be difficult to agree on whether loci can be considered to be under "direct" versus "indirect" selection, or to quantify this selection. We present arguments for what the terms direct and indirect selection might best encompass, considering a range of issues, from viability and sexual selection to kin selection. We show how multilocus notation can discriminate between direct and indirect selection, and describe when it can do so., (© 2015 The Author(s).)

When polygenic traits are under stabilizing selection, many different combinations of alleles allow close adaptation to the optimum. If alleles have equal effects, all combinations that result in the same deviation from the optimum are equivalent. Furthermore, the genetic variance that is maintained by mutation-selection balance is [Formula: see text] per locus, where μ is the mutation rate and S the strength of stabilizing selection. In reality, alleles vary in their effects, making the fitness landscape asymmetric and complicating analysis of the equilibria. We show that that the resulting genetic variance depends on the fraction of alleles near fixation, which contribute by [Formula: see text], and on the total mutational effects of alleles that are at intermediate frequency. The interplay between stabilizing selection and mutation leads to a sharp transition: alleles with effects smaller than a threshold value of [Formula: see text] remain polymorphic, whereas those with larger effects are fixed. The genetic load in equilibrium is less than for traits of equal effects, and the fitness equilibria are more similar. We find that if the optimum is displaced, alleles with effects close to the threshold value sweep first, and their rate of increase is bounded by [Formula: see text] Long-term response leads in general to well-adapted traits, unlike the case of equal effects that often end up at a suboptimal fitness peak. However, the particular peaks to which the populations converge are extremely sensitive to the initial states and to the speed of the shift of the optimum trait value., (Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.)

Analysis of genomic data requires an efficient way to calculate likelihoods across very large numbers of loci. We describe a general method for finding the distribution of genealogies: we allow migration between demes, splitting of demes [as in the isolation-with-migration (IM) model], and recombination between linked loci. These processes are described by a set of linear recursions for the generating function of branch lengths. Under the infinite-sites model, the probability of any configuration of mutations can be found by differentiating this generating function. Such calculations are feasible for small numbers of sampled genomes: as an example, we show how the generating function can be derived explicitly for three genes under the two-deme IM model. This derivation is done automatically, using Mathematica. Given data from a large number of unlinked and nonrecombining blocks of sequence, these results can be used to find maximum-likelihood estimates of model parameters by tabulating the probabilities of all relevant mutational configurations and then multiplying across loci. The feasibility of the method is demonstrated by applying it to simulated data and to a data set previously analyzed by Wang and Hey (2010) consisting of 26,141 loci sampled from Drosophila simulans and D. melanogaster. Our results suggest that such likelihood calculations are scalable to genomic data as long as the numbers of sampled individuals and mutations per sequence block are small.

Random genetic drift shifts clines in space, alters their width, and distorts their shape. Such random fluctuations complicate inferences from cline width and position. Notably, the effect of genetic drift on the expected shape of the cline is opposite to the naive (but quite common) misinterpretation of classic results on the expected cline. While random drift on average broadens the overall cline in expected allele frequency, it narrows the width of any particular cline. The opposing effects arise because locally, drift drives alleles to fixation--but fluctuations in position widen the expected cline. The effect of genetic drift can be predicted from standardized variance in allele frequencies, averaged across the habitat: . A cline maintained by spatially varying selection (step change) is expected to be narrower by a factor of √1- relative to the cline in the absence of drift. The expected cline is broader by the inverse of this factor. In a tension zone maintained by underdominance, the expected cline width is narrower by about 1- relative to the width in the absence of drift. Individual clines can differ substantially from the expectation, and we give quantitative predictions for the variance in cline position and width. The predictions apply to clines in almost one-dimensional circumstances such as hybrid zones in rivers, deep valleys, or along a coast line and give a guide to what patterns to expect in two dimensions.

The evolution of quantitative characters depends on the frequencies of the alleles involved, yet these frequencies cannot usually be measured. Previous groups have proposed an approximation to the dynamics of quantitative traits, based on an analogy with statistical mechanics. We present a modified version of that approach, which makes the analogy more precise and applies quite generally to describe the evolution of allele frequencies. We calculate explicitly how the macroscopic quantities (i.e., quantities that depend on the quantitative trait) depend on evolutionary forces, in a way that is independent of the microscopic details. We first show that the stationary distribution of allele frequencies under drift, selection, and mutation maximizes a certain measure of entropy, subject to constraints on the expectation of observable quantities. We then approximate the dynamical changes in these expectations, assuming that the distribution of allele frequencies always maximizes entropy, conditional on the expected values. When applied to directional selection on an additive trait, this gives a very good approximation to the evolution of the trait mean and the genetic variance, when the number of mutations per generation is sufficiently high (4Nmicro > 1). We show how the method can be modified for small mutation rates (4Nmicro --> 0). We outline how this method describes epistatic interactions as, for example, with stabilizing selection.

We apply new analytical methods to understand the consequences of population bottlenecks for expected additive genetic variance. We analyze essentially all models for multilocus epistasis that have been numerically simulated to demonstrate increased additive variance. We conclude that for biologically plausible models, large increases in expected additive variance--attributable to epistasis rather than dominance--are unlikely. Naciri-Graven and Goudet (2003) found that as the number of epistatically interacting loci increases, additive variance tends to be inflated more after a bottleneck. We argue that this result reflects biologically unrealistic aspects of their models. Specifically, as the number of loci increases, higher-order epistatic interactions become increasingly important in these models, with an increasing fraction of the genetic variance becoming nonadditive, contrary to empirical observations. As shown by Barton and Turelli (2004), without dominance, conversion of nonadditive to additive variance depends only on the variance components and not on the number of loci per se. Numerical results indicating that more inbreeding is needed to produce maximal release of additive variance with more loci follow directly from our analytical results, which show that high levels of inbreeding (F > 0.5) are needed for significant conversion of higher-order components. We discuss alternative approaches to modeling multilocus epistasis and understanding its consequences.

We study the evolution of inversions that capture locally adapted alleles when two populations are exchanging migrants or hybridizing. By suppressing recombination between the loci, a new inversion can spread. Neither drift nor coadaptation between the alleles (epistasis) is needed, so this local adaptation mechanism may apply to a broader range of genetic and demographic situations than alternative hypotheses that have been widely discussed. The mechanism can explain many features observed in inversion systems. It will drive an inversion to high frequency if there is no countervailing force, which could explain fixed differences observed between populations and species. An inversion can be stabilized at an intermediate frequency if it also happens to capture one or more deleterious recessive mutations, which could explain polymorphisms that are common in some species. This polymorphism can cycle in frequency with the changing selective advantage of the locally favored alleles. The mechanism can establish underdominant inversions that decrease heterokaryotype fitness by several percent if the cause of fitness loss is structural, while if the cause is genic there is no limit to the strength of underdominance that can result. The mechanism is expected to cause loci responsible for adaptive species-specific differences to map to inversions, as seen in recent QTL studies. We discuss data that support the hypothesis, review other mechanisms for inversion evolution, and suggest possible tests.

In finite populations subject to selection, genetic drift generates negative linkage disequilibrium, on average, even if selection acts independently (i.e., multiplicatively) upon all loci. Negative disequilibrium reduces the variance in fitness and hence, by Fisher's (1930) fundamental theorem, slows the rate of increase in mean fitness. Modifiers that increase recombination eliminate the negative disequilibria that impede selection and consequently increase in frequency by "hitchhiking." Thus, stochastic fluctuations in linkage disequilibrium in finite populations favor the evolution of increased rates of recombination, even in the absence of epistatic interactions among loci and even when disequilibrium is initially absent. The method developed within this article allows us to quantify the strength of selection acting on a modifier allele that increases recombination in a finite population. The analysis indicates that stochastically generated linkage disequilibria do select for increased recombination, a result that is confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. Selection for a modifier that increases recombination is highest when linkage among loci is tight, when beneficial alleles rise from low to high frequency, and when the population size is small.

We analyze the changes in the mean and variance components of a quantitative trait caused by changes in allele frequencies, concentrating on the effects of genetic drift. We use a general representation of epistasis and dominance that allows an arbitrary relation between genotype and phenotype for any number of diallelic loci. We assume initial and final Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium in our analyses of drift-induced changes. Random drift generates transient linkage disequilibria that cause correlations between allele frequency fluctuations at different loci. However, we show that these have negligible effects, at least for interactions among small numbers of loci. Our analyses are based on diffusion approximations that summarize the effects of drift in terms of F, the inbreeding coefficient, interpreted as the expected proportional decrease in heterozygosity at each locus. For haploids, the variance of the trait mean after a population bottleneck is var(delta(z)) = sigma(n)k=1 FkV(A(k)), where n is the number of loci contributing to the trait variance, V(A(1)) = V(A) is the additive genetic variance, and V(A(k)) is the kth-order additive epistatic variance. The expected additive genetic variance after the bottleneck, denoted (V*(A)), is closely related to var(delta(z)); (V*(A)) = (1 - F) sigma(n)k=1 kFk-1V(A(k)). Thus, epistasis inflates the expected additive variance above V(A)(1 - F), the expectation under additivity. For haploids (and diploids without dominance), the expected value of every variance component is inflated by the existence of higher order interactions (e.g., third-order epistasis inflates (V*(AA. This is not true in general with diploidy, because dominance alone can reduce (V*(A)) below V(A)(1 - F) (e.g., when dominant alleles are rare). Without dominance, diploidy produces simple expressions: var(delta(z)) = sigma(n)k=1 (2F)kV(A(k)) and (V(A)) = (1 - F) sigma(n)k=1 k(2F)k-1V(A(k)). With dominance (and even without epistasis), var(delta(z)) and (V*(A)) no longer depend solely on the variance components in the base population. For small F, the expected additive variance simplifies to (V*(A)) approximately equal to (1 - F)V(A) + 4FV(AA) + 2FV(D) + 2FC(AD), where C(AD) is a sum of two terms describing covariances between additive effects and dominance and additive X dominance interactions. Whether population bottlenecks lead to expected increases in additive variance depends primarily on the ratio of nonadditive to additive genetic variance in the base population, but dominance precludes simple predictions based solely on variance components. We illustrate these results using a model in which genotypic values are drawn at random, allowing extreme and erratic epistatic interactions. Although our analyses clarify the conditions under which drift is expected to increase V(A), we question the evolutionary importance of such increases.

The coalescent process can describe the effects of selection at linked loci only if selection is so strong that genotype frequencies evolve deterministically. Here, we develop methods proposed by Kaplan, Darden, and Hudson to find the effects of weak selection. We show that the overall effect is given by an extension to Price's equation: the change in properties such as moments of coalescence times is equal to the covariance between those properties and the fitness of the sample of genes. The distribution of coalescence times differs substantially between allelic classes, even in the absence of selection. However, the average coalescence time between randomly chosen genes is insensitive to the current allele frequency and is affected significantly by purifying selection only if deleterious mutations are common and selection is strong (i.e., the product of population size and selection coefficient, Ns>3). Balancing selection increases mean coalescence times, but the effect becomes large only when mutation rates between allelic classes are low and when selection is extremely strong. Our analysis supports previous simulations that show that selection has surprisingly little effect on genealogies. Moreover, small fluctuations in allele frequency due to random drift can greatly reduce any such effects. This will make it difficult to detect the action of selection from neutral variation alone.

We investigate three alternative selection-based scenarios proposed to maintain polygenic variation: pleiotropic balancing selection, G x E interactions (with spatial or temporal variation in allelic effects), and sex-dependent allelic effects. Each analysis assumes an additive polygenic trait with n diallelic loci under stabilizing selection. We allow loci to have different effects and consider equilibria at which the population mean departs from the stabilizing-selection optimum. Under weak selection, each model produces essentially identical, approximate allele-frequency dynamics. Variation is maintained under pleiotropic balancing selection only at loci for which the strength of balancing selection exceeds the effective strength of stabilizing selection. In addition, for all models, polymorphism requires that the population mean be close enough to the optimum that directional selection does not overwhelm balancing selection. This balance allows many simultaneously stable equilibria, and we explore their properties numerically. Both spatial and temporal G x E can maintain variation at loci for which the coefficient of variation (across environments) of the effect of a substitution exceeds a critical value greater than one. The critical value depends on the correlation between substitution effects at different loci. For large positive correlations (e.g., rho(ij)2>3/4), even extreme fluctuations in allelic effects cannot maintain variation. Surprisingly, this constraint on correlations implies that sex-dependent allelic effects cannot maintain polygenic variation. We present numerical results that support our analytical approximations and discuss our results in connection to relevant data and alternative variance-maintaining mechanisms.

Mosaic hybrid zones arise when ecologically differentiated taxa hybridize across a network of habitat patches. Frequent interbreeding across a small-scale patchwork can erode species differences that might have been preserved in a clinal hybrid zone. In particular, the rapid breakdown of neutral divergence sets an upper limit to the time for which differences at marker loci can persist. We present here a case study of a mosaic hybrid zone between the fire-bellied toads Bombina bombina and B. variegata (Anura: Discoglossidae) near Apahida in Romania. In our 20 x 20 km study area, we detected no evidence of a clinal transition but found a strong association between aquatic habitat and mean allele frequencies at four molecular markers. In particular, pure populations of B. bombina in ponds appear to cause massive introgression into the surrounding B. variegata gene pool found in temporary aquatic sites. Nevertheless, the genetic structure of these hybrid populations was remarkably similar to those of a previously studied transect near Pescenica (Croatia), which had both clinal and mosaic features: estimates of heterozygote deficit and linkage disequilibrium in each country are similar. In Apahida, the observed strong linkage disequilibria should stem from an imperfect habitat preference that guides most (but not all) adults into the habitats to which they are adapted. In the absence of a clinal structure, the inferred migration rate between habitats implies that associations between selected loci and neutral markers should break down rapidly. Although plausible selection strengths can maintain differentiation at those loci adapting the toads to either permanent or temporary breeding sites, the divergence at neutral markers must be transient. The hybrid zone may be approaching a state in which the gene pools are homogenized at all but the selected loci, not dissimilar from an early stage of sympatric divergence.

In 1991, Barton and Turelli developed recursions to describe the evolution of multilocus systems under arbitrary forms of selection. This article generalizes their approach to allow for arbitrary modes of inheritance, including diploidy, polyploidy, sex linkage, cytoplasmic inheritance, and genomic imprinting. The framework is also extended to allow for other deterministic evolutionary forces, including migration and mutation. Exact recursions that fully describe the state of the population are presented; these are implemented in a computer algebra package (available on the Web at http://helios.bto.ed.ac.uk/evolgen). Despite the generality of our framework, it can describe evolutionary dynamics exactly by just two equations. These recursions can be further simplified using a "quasi-linkage equilibrium" (QLE) approximation. We illustrate the methods by finding the effect of natural selection, sexual selection, mutation, and migration on the genetic composition of a population.

The reasons that sex and recombination are so widespread remain elusive. One popular hypothesis is that sex and recombination promote adaptation to a changing environment. The strongest evidence that increased recombination may evolve because recombination promotes adaptation comes from artificially selected populations. Recombination rates have been found to increase as a correlated response to selection on traits unrelated to recombination in several artificial selection experiments and in a comparison of domesticated and nondomesticated mammals. There are, however, several alternative explanations for the increase in recombination in such populations, including two different evolutionary explanations. The first is that the form of selection is epistatic, generating linkage disequilibria among selected loci, which can indirectly favor modifier alleles that increase recombination. The second is that random genetic drift in selected populations tends to generate disequilibria such that beneficial alleles are often found in different individuals; modifier alleles that increase recombination can bring together such favorable alleles and thus may be found in individuals with greater fitness. In this paper, we compare the evolutionary forces acting on recombination in finite populations subject to strong selection. To our surprise, we found that drift accounted for the majority of selection for increased recombination observed in simulations of small to moderately large populations, suggesting that, unless selected populations are large, epistasis plays a secondary role in the evolution of recombination.

The extent of genetic variation in fitness and its components and genetic variation's dependence on environmental conditions remain key issues in evolutionary biology. We present measurements of genetic variation in preadult viability in a laboratory-adapted population of Drosophila melanogaster, made at four different densities. By crossing flies heterozygous for a wild-type chromosome and one of two different balancers (TM1, TM2), we measure both heterozygous (TM1/+, TM2/+) and homozygous (+/+) viability relative to a standard genotype (TM1/TM2). Forty wild-type chromosomes were tested, of which 10 were chosen to be homozygous viable. The mean numbers produced varied significantly between chromosome lines, with an estimated between-line variance in log(e) numbers of 0.013. Relative viabilities also varied significantly across chromosome lines, with a variance in log(e) homozygous viability of 1.76 and of log(e) heterozygous viability of 0.165. The between-line variance for numbers emerging increased with density, from 0.009 at lowest density to 0.079 at highest. The genetic variance in relative viability increases with density, but not significantly. Overall, the effects of different chromosomes on relative viability were remarkably consistent across densities and across the two heterozygous genotypes (TM1, TM2). The 10 lines that carried homozygous viable wild-type chromosomes produced significantly more adults than the 30 lethal lines at low density and significantly fewer adults at the highest density. Similarly, there was a positive correlation between heterozygous viability and mean numbers at low density, but a negative correlation at high density.

A coalescence-based maximum-likelihood method is presented that aims to (i) detect diversity-reducing events in the recent history of a population and (ii) distinguish between demographic (e.g., bottlenecks) and selective causes (selective sweep) of a recent reduction of genetic variability. The former goal is achieved by taking account of the distortion in the shape of gene genealogies generated by diversity-reducing events: gene trees tend to be more star-like than under the standard coalescent. The latter issue is addressed by comparing patterns between loci: demographic events apply to the whole genome whereas selective events affect distinct regions of the genome to a varying extent. The maximum-likelihood approach allows one to estimate the time and strength of diversity-reducing events and to choose among competing hypotheses. An application to sequence data from an African population of Drosophila melanogaster shows that the bottleneck hypothesis is unlikely and that one or several selective sweeps probably occurred in the recent history of this population.

There has recently been considerable debate over the relative importance of selection against hybrids ("endogenous" selection) vs. adaptation to different environments ("exogenous") in maintaining stable hybrid zones and hence in speciation. Single-locus models of endogenous and exogenous viability selection generate clines of similar shape, but the comparison has not been extended to multilocus systems, which are both quantitatively and qualitatively very different from the single-locus case. Here we develop an analytical multilocus model of differential adaptation across an environmental transition and compare it to previous heterozygote disadvantage models. We show that the shape of clines generated by exogenous selection is indistinguishable from that generated by endogenous selection. A stochastic simulation model is used to test the robustness of the analytical description to the effects of drift and strong selection, and confirms the prediction that pairwise linkage disequilibria are predominantly generated by migration. However, although analytical predictions for the width of clines maintained by heterozygote disadvantage fit well with the simulation results, those for environmental adaptation are consistently too narrow; reasons for the discrepancy are discussed. There is a smooth transition between a system in which a set of loci effectively act independently of each other and one in which they act as a single nonrecombining unit.

In this article we describe the structure of a hybrid zone in Argyll, Scotland, between native red deer (Cervus elaphus) and introduced Japanese sika deer (Cervus nippon), on the basis of a genetic analysis using 11 microsatellite markers and mitochondrial DNA. In contrast to the findings of a previous study of the same population, we conclude that the deer fall into two distinct genetic classes, corresponding to either a sika-like or red-like phenotype. Introgression is rare at any one locus, but where the taxa overlap up to 40% of deer carry apparently introgressed alleles. While most putative hybrids are heterozygous at only one locus, there are rare multiple heterozygotes, reflecting significant linkage disequilibrium within both sika- and red-like populations. The rate of backcrossing into the sika population is estimated as H = 0.002 per generation and into red, H = 0.001 per generation. On the basis of historical evidence that red deer entered Kintyre only recently, a diffusion model evaluated by maximum likelihood shows that sika have increased at approximately 9.2% yr-1 from low frequency and disperse at a rate of approximately 3.7 km yr-1. Introgression into the red-like population is greater in the south, while introgression into sika varies little along the transect. For both sika- and red-like populations, the degree of introgression is 30-40% of that predicted from the rates of current hybridization inferred from linkage disequilibria; however, in neither case is this statistically significant evidence for selection against introgression.

Determining the way in which deleterious mutations interact in their effects on fitness is crucial to numerous areas in population genetics and evolutionary biology. For example, if each additional mutation leads to a greater decrease in log fitness than the last (synergistic epistasis), then the evolution of sex and recombination may be favored to facilitate the elimination of deleterious mutations. However, there is a severe shortage of relevant data. Three relatively simple experimental methods to test for epistasis between deleterious mutations in haploid species have recently been proposed. These methods involve crossing individuals and examining the mean and/or skew in log fitness of the offspring and parents. The main aim of this paper is to formalize these methods, and determine the most effective way in which tests for epistasis could be carried out. We show that only one of these methods is likely to give useful results: crossing individuals that have very different numbers of deleterious mutations, and comparing the mean log fitness of the parents with that of their offspring. We also reconsider experimental data collected on Chlamydomonas moewussi using two of the three methods. Finally, we suggest how the test could be applied to diploid species.

This paper demonstrates the effect of habitat heterogeneity and a habitat preference on the genetic structure of a hybrid zone between the toads Bombina bombina and B. variegata (Anura: Discoglossidae); 1613 toads from 85 sites across a transect near Pešćenica, Croatia, were scored for five unlinked diagnostic allozyme markers. These were found to be largely concordant. Aside from minor systematic deviations, there was little variance in allele frequency among loci within sites. Yet the allele frequencies did not follow a smooth cline, but formed a mosaic in the center, such that neighboring sites could differ markedly in their enzyme score. A detailed ecological survey revealed a correlation between this pattern and habitat. In keeping with the typical breeding sites of the parental taxa, B. bombina-like hybrids were found more often in ponds, whereas B. variegata-like hybrids were more common in puddles. In addition, there was significant heterozygote deficit (F IS ) and strong linkage disequilibrium (R), both of which were stronger on the B. bombina side of the transect, and stronger in puddles than ponds. Mark-recapture data showed: (1) that the animals disperse beyond the scale of the habitat pattern; (2) frequent turn-over of individuals within sites; and (3) nonrandom movement between two sites of different habitat type. We conclude that an active habitat preference must contribute to the observed association between marker alleles and habitat. As a consequence, there is incomplete mixing of the two gene pools, which could explain the high level of F IS and R. The asymmetry in these parameters may reflect asymmetry in the preference or in the distribution of habitats across the zone. We discuss the implications of habitat preference for the dynamics of hybrid zones., (© 1998 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

One of the oldest hypotheses for the advantage of recombination is that recombination allows beneficial mutations that arise in different individuals to be placed together on the same chromosome. Unless recombination occurs, one of the beneficial alleles is doomed to extinction, slowing the rate at which adaptive mutations are incorporated within a population. We model the effects of a modifier of recombination on the fixation probability of beneficial mutations when beneficial alleles are segregating at other loci. We find that modifier alleles that increase recombination do increase the fixation probability of beneficial mutants and subsequently hitchhike along as the mutants rise in frequency. The strength of selection favoring a modifier that increases recombination is proportional to lambda(2)S delta r/r when linkage is tight and lambda(2)S3 delta r/N when linkage is loose, where lambda is the beneficial mutation rate per genome per generation throughout a population of size N, S is the average mutant effect, r is the average recombination rate, and delta r is the amount that recombination is modified. We conclude that selection for recombination will be substantial only if there is tight linkage within the genome or if many loci are subject to directional selection as during periods of rapid evolutionary change.

This paper derives the long-term effective size, Ne, for a general model of population subdivision, allowing for differential deme fitness, variable emigration and immigration rates, extinction, colonization, and correlations across generations in these processes. We show that various long-term measures of Ne are equivalent. The effective size of a metapopulation can be expressed in a variety of ways. At a demographic equilibrium, Ne can be derived from the demography by combining information about the ultimate contribution of each deme to the future genetic make-up of the population and Wright's FST's. The effective size is given by Ne = 1/(1 + var (upsilon) ((1 - FST)/Nin), where n is the number of demes, theta i is the eventual contribution of individuals in deme i to the whole population (scaled such that sigma theta i = n), and < > denotes an average weighted by theta i. This formula is applied to a catastrophic extinction model (where sites are either empty or at carrying capacity) and to a metapopulation model with explicit dynamics, where extinction is caused by demographic stochasticity and by chaos. Contrary to the expectation from the standard island model, the usual effect of population subdivision is to decrease the effective size relative to a panmictic population living on the same resource.

A local barrier to gene flow will delay the spread of an advantageous allele. Exact calculations for the deterministic case show that an allele that is favorable when rare is delayed very little even by a strong barrier: its spread is slowed by a time proportional to log((B/sigma) square root of 2S)/S, where B is the barrier strength, sigma the dispersal range, and fitnesses are 1:1 + S:1 + 2S. However, when there is selection against heterozygotes, such that the allele cannot increase from low frequency, a barrier can cause a much greater delay. If gene flow is reduced below a critical value, spread is entirely prevented. Stochastic simulations show that with additive selection, random drift slows down the spread of the allele, below the deterministic speed of sigma square root of 2S. The delay to the advance of an advantageous allele caused by a strong barrier can be substantially increased by random drift and increases with B/(2S rho sigma 2) in a one-dimensional habitat of density rho. However, with selection against heterozygotes, drift can facilitate the spread and can free an allele that would otherwise be trapped indefinitely by a strong barrier. We discuss the implications of these results for the evolution of chromosome rearrangements.

Observations on the means, variances, and covariances of quantitative traits across hybrid zones can give information similar to that from Mendelian markers. In addition, they can identify particular traits through which the cline is maintained. We describe a survey of six traits across the hybrid zone between Bombina bombina and Bombina variegata (Amphibia: Discoglossidae) near Pešćenica in Croatia. We obtained laboratory measuments of the belly pattern, skin thickness, mating call, skeletal form, egg size, and the developmental time of tadpoles. Although offspring from hybrid populations showed no evidence of reduced viability, a third of the F 1 families failed completely, irrespective of the direction of the cross. All traits differed significantly between the taxa. Clines in belly pattern, skin thickness, mating call, and skeletal form were closely concordant with clines in four diagnostic enzyme loci. However, the cline in developmental time was displaced towards bombina, and the cline in egg size was displaced towards variegata. This discordance could be because the traits are not inherited additively or because they are subject to different selection pressures. We favor the latter explanation in the case of developmental time. We show that moderate selection acting directly on a trait suffices to shift its position; rather stronger selection is needed to change its width appreciably. Within hybrid populations, there are significant associations among quantitative traits, and between traits and enzymes. Phenotypic variances also increase in hybrid populations. These observations can be explained by linkage disequilibria among the underlying loci. However, the average magnitude of the covariance between traits is about half that expected from the linkage disequilibria between enzyme loci. The discrepancy is not readily explained by nonadditive gene action. This puzzle is now unresolved and calls for further investigation., (© 1995 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

The probability of fixation of a favorable mutation is reduced if selection at other loci causes inherited variation in fitness. A general method for calculating the fixation probability of an allele that can find itself in a variety of genetic backgrounds is applied to find the effect of substitutions, fluctuating polymorphisms, and deleterious mutations in a large population. With loose linkage, r, the effects depend on the additive genetic variance in relative fitness, var(W), and act by reducing effective population size by (N/Ne) = 1 + var(W)/2r2. However, tightly linked loci can have a substantial effect not predictable from Ne. Linked deleterious mutations reduce the fixation probability of weakly favored alleles by exp (-2U/R), where U is the total mutation rate and R is the map length in Morgans. Substitutions can cause a greater reduction: an allele with advantage s < scrit = (pi 2/6) loge (S/s) [var(W)/R] is very unlikely to be fixed. (S is the advantage of the substitution impeding fixation.) Fluctuating polymorphisms at many (n) linked loci can also have a substantial effect, reducing fixation probability by exp [square root of 2Kn var(W)/R] [K = -1/E((u-u)2/uv) depending on the frequencies (u,v) at the selected polymorphisms]. Hitchhiking due to all three kinds of selection may substantially impede adaptation that depends on weakly favored alleles.

We develop a general population genetic framework for analyzing selection on many loci, and apply it to strong truncation and disruptive selection on an additive polygenic trait. We first present statistical methods for analyzing the infinitesimal model, in which offspring breeding values are normally distributed around the mean of the parents, with fixed variance. These show that the usual assumption of a Gaussian distribution of breeding values in the population gives remarkably accurate predictions for the mean and the variance, even when disruptive selection generates substantial deviations from normality. We then set out a general genetic analysis of selection and recombination. The population is represented by multilocus cumulants describing the distribution of haploid genotypes, and selection is described by the relation between mean fitness and these cumulants. We provide exact recursions in terms of generating functions for the effects of selection on non-central moments. The effects of recombination are simply calculated as a weighted sum over all the permutations produced by meiosis. Finally, the new cumulants that describe the next generation are computed from the non-central moments. Although this scheme is applied here in detail only to selection on an additive trait, it is quite general. For arbitrary epistasis and linkage, we describe a consistent infinitesimal limit in which the short-term selection response is dominated by infinitesimal allele frequency changes and linkage disequilibria. Numerical multilocus results show that the standard Gaussian approximation gives accurate predictions for the dynamics of the mean and genetic variance in this limit. Even with intense truncation selection, linkage disequilibria of order three and higher never cause much deviation from normality. Thus, the empirical deviations frequently found between predicted and observed responses to artificial selection are not caused by linkage-disequilibrium-induced departures from normality. Disruptive selection can generate substantial four-way disequilibria, and hence kurtosis; but even then, the Gaussian assumption predicts the variance accurately. In contrast to the apparent simplicity of the infinitesimal limit, data suggest that changes in genetic variance after 10 or more generations of selection are likely to be dominated by allele frequency dynamics that depend on genetic details.

The common shrew (Sorex araneus) is subdivided into several karyotypic races in Britain. Two of these races meet near Oxford o form the "Oxford-Hermitage" hybrid zone. We present a model which describes this system a; a "tension zone," i.e., a set of clines maintained by a balance between dispersal and selection against chromosomal heterozygotes. The Oxford and Hermitage races differ by Robertsonian fusions with monobrachial homology (kq, no versus ko), and so Fl hybrids between them would have low fertility. However, the acrocentric karyotype is found at high frequency within the hybrid zone, so that complex Robertsonian heterozygotes (kg no/q ko n) are replaced by more fertile combinations, such as (kg no/k q n o). This suggests that the hybrid zone has been modified so as to increase hybrid fitness. Mathematical analysis and simulation show that, if selection against complex heterozygotes is sufficiently strong relative to selection against simple heterozygotes, acrocentrics increase, and displace the clines for kg and no from the cline for ko. Superimposed on this separation is a tendency for the hybrid zone to move in favor of the Oxford (kg no) race. We compare the model with estimates of linkage disequilibrium and cline shape made from field data., (© 1992 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

Tophaceous deposition of calcium pyrophosphate dihydrate (CPPD) crystals is considered unusual as is deposition within tendon sheaths. Associated tendon rupture is described but is rare. We report a lady with tophaceous CPPD deposition at the wrist, a previously unreported site. Contrary to previous cases, this occurred in the setting of symptomatic, polyarticular, pyrophosphate arthropathy. An additional point of interest was development of associated extensor tendon rupture with features favouring a non-inflammatory mechanism of tendon damage.

We investigate the probability of fixation of a chromosome rearrangement in a subdivided population, concentrating on the limit where migration is so large relative to selection (m ≫ s) that the population can be thought of as being continuously distributed. We study two demes, and one- and two-dimensional populations. For two demes, the probability of fixation in the limit of high migration approximates that of a population with twice the size of a single deme: migration therefore greatly reduces the fixation probability. However, this behavior does not extend to a large array of demes. Then, the fixation probability depends primarily on neighborhood size (Nb), and may be appreciable even with strong selection and free gene flow (≈exp(-B ≈ Nb√s) in one dimension, ≈exp(-B ≈ Nb) in two dimensions). Our results are close to those for the more tractable case of a polygenic character under disruptive selection., (© 1991 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

A method is developed that describes the effects on an arbitrary number of autosomal loci of selection on haploid and diploid stages, of nonrandom mating between haploid individuals, and of recombination. We provide exact recursions for the dynamics of allele frequencies and linkage disequilibria (nonrandom associations of alleles across loci). When selection is weak relative to recombination, our recursions provide simple approximations for the linkage disequilibria among arbitrary combinations of loci. We show how previous models of sex-independent natural selection on diploids, assortative mating between haploids, and sexual selection on haploids can be analyzed in this framework. Using our weak-selection approximations, we derive new results concerning the coevolution of male traits and female preferences under natural and sexual selection. In particular, we provide general expressions for the intensity of linkage-disequilibrium induced selection experienced by loci that contribute to female preferences for specific male traits. Our general results support the previous observation that these indirect selection forces are so weak that they are unlikely to dominate the evolution of preference-producing loci.

Hybrid zones can yield estimates of natural selection and gene flow. The width of a cline in gene frequency is approximately proportional to gene flow (sigma) divided by the square root of per-locus selection (square root of s). Gene flow also causes gametic correlations (linkage disequilibria) between genes that differ across hybrid zones. Correlations are stronger when the hybrid zone is narrow, and rise to a maximum roughly equal to s. Thus cline width and gametic correlations combine to give estimates of gene flow and selection. These indirect measures of sigma and s are especially useful because they can be made from collections, and require no field experiments. The method was applied to hybrid zones between color pattern races in a pair of Peruvian Heliconius butterfly species. The species are Müllerian mimics of one another, and both show the same changes in warning color pattern across their respective hybrid zones. The expectations of cline width and gametic correlation were generated using simulations of clines stabilized by strong frequency-dependent selection. In the hybrid zone in Heliconius erato, clines at three major color pattern loci were between 8.5 and 10.2 km wide, and the pairwise gametic correlations peaked at R approximately 0.35. These measures suggest that s approximately 0.23 per locus, and that sigma approximately 2.6 km. In erato, the shapes of the clines agreed with that expected on the basis of dominance. Heliconius melpomene has a nearly coincident hybrid zone. In this species, cline widths at four major color pattern loci varied between 11.7 and 13.4 km. Pairwise gametic correlations peaked near R approximately 1.00 for tightly linked genes, and at R approximately 0.40 for unlinked genes, giving s approximately 0.25 per locus and sigma approximately 3.7 km. In melpomene, cline shapes did not perfectly fit theoretical shapes based on dominance; this deviation might be explained by long-distance migration and/or strong epistasis. Compared with erato, sample sizes in melpomene are lower and the genetics of its color patterns are less well understood. In spite of these problems, selection and gene flow are clearly of the same order of magnitude in the two species. The relatively high per locus selection coefficients agree with "major gene" theories for the evolution of Müllerian mimicry, but the genetic architecture of the color patterns does not. These results show that the genetics and evolution of mimicry are still only sketchily understood.

It is widely held that each gene typically affects many characters, and that each character is affected by many genes. Moreover, strong stabilizing selection cannot act on an indefinitely large number of independent traits. This makes it likely that heritable variation in any one trait is maintained as a side effect of polymorphisms which have nothing to do with selection on that trait. This paper examines the idea that variation is maintained as the pleiotropic side effect of either deleterious mutation, or balancing selection. If mutation is responsible, it must produce alleles which are only mildly deleterious (s approximately 10(-3)), but nevertheless have significant effects on the trait. Balancing selection can readily maintain high heritabilities; however, selection must be spread over many weakly selected polymorphisms if large responses to artificial selection are to be possible. In both classes of pleiotropic model, extreme phenotypes are less fit, giving the appearance of stabilizing selection on the trait. However, it is shown that this effect is weak (of the same order as the selection on each gene): the strong stabilizing selection which is often observed is likely to be caused by correlations with a limited number of directly selected traits. Possible experiments for distinguishing the alternatives are discussed.

Frequency-dependent selection against rare forms can maintain clines. For weak selection, s, in simple linear models of frequency-dependence, single locus clines are stabilized with a maximum slope of between square root of s/square root of 8 sigma and square root of s/square root of 12 delta, where sigma is the dispersal distance. These clines are similar to those maintained by heterozygote disadvantage. Using computer simulations, the weak-selection analytical results are extended to higher selection pressures with up to three unlinked genes. Graphs are used to display the effect of selection, migration, dominance, and number of loci on cline widths, speeds of cline movements, two-way gametic correlations ("linkage disequilibria"), and heterozygote deficits. The effects of changing the order of reproduction, migration, and selection, are also briefly explored. Epistasis can also maintain tension zones. We show that epistatic selection is similar in its effects to frequency-dependent selection, except that the disequilibria produced in the zone will be higher for a given level of selection. If selection consists of a mixture of frequency-dependence and epistasis, as is likely in nature, the error made in estimating selection is usually less than twofold. From the graphs, selection and migration can be estimated using knowledge of the dominance and number of genes, of gene frequencies and of gametic correlations from a hybrid zone.

Sixty-three immunocompromised patients with infections caused by herpes simplex virus were evaluated in a double-blind, placebo-controlled study of topical acyclovir therapy; 33 patients received acyclovir and 30 received the placebo. The two populations of patients were balanced in terms of age, race, sex, underlying disease, preceding chemotherapy, and site, size, and duration of lesions. Acyclovir recipients experienced an acceleration in the clearance of virus (P = .0006), the resolution of pain (P = .004), and the total healing of lesions (P = .038); median temporal differences between populations averaged six days for each of these three parameters. The surface area of herpetic lesions continued to enlarge in placebo recipients after entry into the trial; in contrast, lesion surface area decreased progressively during therapy in drug recipients. The speed of healing was influenced by lesion size. Patients with lesions of greater than or equal to 50 mm2 benefited most from therapy, particularly in terms of pain resolution and time to total healing (median differences between groups, eight days). Irrespective of underlying disease, sex, preceding chemotherapy, or age, acyclovir therapy was of clinical benefit. No adverse clinical or laboratory reactions were encountered.