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Stroke ranks among the leading causes for morbidity and mortality worldwide. New and continuously improving treatment options such as thrombolysis and thrombectomy have revolutionized acute stroke treatment in recent years. Following modern rhythms, the next revolution might well be the strategic use of the steadily increasing amounts of patient-related data for generating models enabling individualized outcome predictions. Milestones have already been achieved in several health care domains, as big data and artificial intelligence have entered everyday life. The aim of this review is to synoptically illustrate and discuss how artificial intelligence approaches may help to compute single-patient predictions in stroke outcome research in the acute, subacute and chronic stage. We will present approaches considering demographic, clinical and electrophysiological data, as well as data originating from various imaging modalities and combinations thereof. We will outline their advantages, disadvantages, their potential pitfalls and the promises they hold with a special focus on a clinical audience. Throughout the review we will highlight methodological aspects of novel machine-learning approaches as they are particularly crucial to realize precision medicine. We will finally provide an outlook on how artificial intelligence approaches might contribute to enhancing favourable outcomes after stroke. Bonkhoff and Grefkes discuss existing artificial intelligence approaches and single-subject prediction scenarios within stroke outcome research in the acute, subacute and chronic stages. They outline how an increasing data richness could allow new scientific insights and ultimately contribute to improved outcomes after stroke.

Acute ischaemic stroke disturbs healthy brain organization, prompting subsequent plasticity and reorganization to compensate for the loss of specialized neural tissue and function. Static resting state functional MRI studies have already furthered our understanding of cerebral reorganization by estimating stroke-induced changes in network connectivity aggregated over the duration of several minutes. In this study, we used dynamic resting state functional MRI analyses to increase temporal resolution to seconds and explore transient configurations of motor network connectivity in acute stroke. To this end, we collected resting state functional MRI data of 31 patients with acute ischaemic stroke and 17 age-matched healthy control subjects. Stroke patients presented with moderate to severe hand motor deficits. By estimating dynamic functional connectivity within a sliding window framework, we identified three distinct connectivity configurations of motor-related networks. Motor networks were organized into three regional domains, i.e. a cortical, subcortical and cerebellar domain. The dynamic connectivity patterns of stroke patients diverged from those of healthy controls depending on the severity of the initial motor impairment. Moderately affected patients (n = 18) spent significantly more time in a weakly connected configuration that was characterized by low levels of connectivity, both locally as well as between distant regions. In contrast, severely affected patients (n = 13) showed a significant preference for transitions into a spatially segregated connectivity configuration. This configuration featured particularly high levels of local connectivity within the three regional domains as well as anti-correlated connectivity between distant networks across domains. A third connectivity configuration represented an intermediate connectivity pattern compared to the preceding two, and predominantly encompassed decreased interhemispheric connectivity between cortical mo

Accurate predictions of motor impairment after stroke are of cardinal importance for the patient, clinician, and healthcare system. More than 10 years ago, the proportional recovery rule was introduced by promising that high-fidelity predictions of recovery following stroke were based only on the initially lost motor function, at least for a specific fraction of patients. However, emerging evidence suggests that this recovery rule is subject to various confounds and may apply less universally than previously assumed. Here, we systematically revisited stroke outcome predictions by applying strategies to avoid confounds and fitting hierarchical Bayesian models. We jointly analysed 385 post-stroke trajectories from six separate studies-one of the largest overall datasets of upper limb motor recovery. We addressed confounding ceiling effects by introducing a subset approach and ensured correct model estimation through synthetic data simulations. Subsequently, we used model comparisons to assess the underlying nature of recovery within our empirical recovery data. The first model comparison, relying on the conventional fraction of patients called 'fitters', pointed to a combination of proportional to lost function and constant recovery. 'Proportional to lost' here describes the original notion of proportionality, indicating greater recovery in case of a more severe initial impairment. This combination explained only 32% of the variance in recovery, which is in stark contrast to previous reports of 480%. When instead analysing the complete spectrum of subjects, 'fitters' and 'non-fitters', a combination of proportional to spared function and constant recovery was favoured, implying a more significant improvement in case of more preserved function. Explained variance was at 53%. Therefore, our quantitative findings suggest that motor recovery post-stroke may exhibit some characteristics of proportionality. However, the variance explained was substantially reduced compared