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How do threatening events shape political attitudes? While some theories argue that threat increases support for conservatism, others claim that threat reinforces pre-existing political beliefs, and yet others assert that some threats can equally induce support for liberalism. The current article reconciles these conflicting perspectives by testing an overarching theoretical framework: Threat Ownership Theory (TOT). Building on the issue ownership and ideology-affordance literature, this theory posits that specific policy ideas can offer affordances under specific types of threats. As a result, threat-driven shifts in political ideology will depend upon the political party and policy associated with remedying a given threat. In cases where no single political party “owns” a solution to a particular threat, political polarization is expected. In cases where the threat is not political, no change in political attitudes is predicted. In this pre-analysis plan, we outline our new theory and propose two studies to comprehensively test its empirical implications. First, we will re-analyze a prominent meta-analysis based on the propositions of our new theory. Second, we will conduct a high-powered, multi-treat, vignette experiment.

Study 4 - Experimental

cross-sectional study

Integration models refer to prevalent values within societies which pertain to how majority-minority groups should relate to one another (i.e. intergroup ideologies). Over the past couple of decades, much research has been devoted to understanding how assimilationism, multiculturalism and colorblindness relate to intergroup attitudes. However, the concrete effects of integration models on support for real-world policy among citizens remains sparse. Taking advantage of the current political context in France, we aimed to study how assimilationist vs. multicultural intergroup ideologies relate to support for policies aimed at countering violent extremism. Following the recent wave of terror attacks, the French government introduced a bill designed to counter islamist extremism among Muslim minorities, the so-called “Separatism Bill to Enforce Respect of Republican Values” which aims to fight “separatism and attacks on citizenship”. Because of its explicit aim to assimilate Islam to the French Republic, we wanted to test whether assimilationism could promote support for the recent law. This study aims to replicate our previous findigs. Across three studies (total N = 939), we found evidence of a positive relationship between adherence to assimilation (vs. multiculturalism; Study 1) and support for the law. This link was experimentally corroborated (Study 2), and replicated (Study 3). We found evidence for a mediating role of attitudes toward immigrants. This is the first time that intergroup ideologies were found to impact support for a real-life policy.

In the context of the 2022 presidential election in France, we sought to test the effectiveness of a novel intervention to decrease support for anti-Muslim candidates. The intervention consists of a writing task asking participants their choice of candidate and to then 1) reflect on their choice of candidate for the election, 2) think about a Muslim friend of theirs, 3) think about what their Muslim friend would think of their choice of candidate 4) think about the consequence of their preferred candidate's policies for their Muslim friend were he/she to be elected. The intervention was tested against a strict control including no writing task and a placebo condition including only steps 1) and 2). A pilot study conducted during the first round indicated that only the intervention group saw the highest proportion of individuals changing their voting decision, and that this effect seemed driven by an increase in changes of choice for pro-Muslim candidates (not a decrease in choice for anti-Muslim candidates). The main contrasts of interest were weak (pre-post increase in intervention condition, d = .42; p = .056; intervention effect relative to control, d = .43, p = .032; intervention relative to placebo d = .40, p =.063). We sought to replicate this pattern using the second round of the election, where Macron-choices would be considered as pro-Muslim against the far-right candidate.

The literature on Counterfactual Thinking (CT) suggests that exercising CT can foster certain behavioral intentions directly or indirectly through one’s judgment of the potential impact of their own actions. Building on these studies, our aim is to examine the possible effects of engaging in collective action-related CT on responses to societal injustice, directly or through personal control and efficacy beliefs.

Study on separatism law endorsment and ideologies

This pre-registration is an updated version of the previous one. Based on pilot data, the task used to induce priming (sumerian wrrior task) did not work (no increase in collectivism/individualism in the relevant conditions). We therefore changed the task, to a autobiographical writing one, described in this pre-registration.

Analysis of the links between absolutist words from search volume (google trends) and suicide rates across the US from 2004 to 2017.

This study investigates the effect of exposure to partisan news about the Yellow Vests movement in France on attitudes towrds and intentions to join the movement.

This experiment is a direct replication of a pilot study conducted in France which showed that a paper pencil implementation of intentions exercise could lead in increased intentions to enact COVID-19 preventive measures. Results from the pilot study are available in the corresponding folder. The procedure is attached. After reading a short visual poster containing CDC recommended health behavior to limit the spread of COVID19, participants are asked once to rate the effectiveness of the proposed measures. They are then split between a control (deliberation) condition or an implementation of intentions exercise. After this part, both groups are asked to rate again the perceived effectiveness of the measures and proceed with the DV. The pilot study contained measures of conspiracy beliefs, supposed to mediate the effect, but these were not affected by the intervention, thus removed from the US replication study. Similarly, perceived effectiveness of measures are not affected by the procedure, and this measure is thus considered part of the intervention protocol (i.e. not theorized as a mediator). The effect was observed across all items averaged, but worked better when not considering the item related to vaccination. Vaccines in France were not available to our target sample (students) at the time of the study, and vaccine hesitancy in France is one of the highest of all OECD countries. One goal of this replication study is thus to establish, beyond replicability of the effect, its potential for increasing vaccination intentions too.

Testing the hypothesis that the positive link between obsessive passion and violent behavioral intentions increases with perception of descriptive norms encouraging violent action among members of ideological groups. This study is a strict replication of the pilot study 1 conducted among BLM activists. It will be conducted among US Democrats and Republicans.

Followup study after the failure to generate effects using visual primes (fake journal articles)

This study will seek to replicate effects obtained in study 1 and 2 (counterfactual thinking increases the strenght of identification-collective action intentions' link) as well as to extent those to nonnormative and radical action intentions.

Previous research has shown positive associations between individualism and creativity at country (Rinne, Steel, & Fairweather, 2013) and group (Goncalo & Staw, 2006) levels. These results suggest that individualistic values/mindsets can be beneficial to creativity. However, to our knowledge, few contributions examined this association at the individual level. This project aims to study the association between individualism and creativity at the individual level through a dedicated methodology.