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The updip limit of seismic rupture during a megathrust earthquake exerts a major control on the size of the resulting tsunami. Offshore Northern Chile, the 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake ruptured the plate boundary between 19.5° and 21°S. Rupture terminated under the mid-continental slope and did not propagate updip to the trench. Here, we use state-of-the-art seismic reflection data to investigate the tectonic setting associated with the apparent updip arrest of rupture propagation at 15 km depth during the Iquique earthquake. We document a spatial correspondence between the rupture area and the seismic reflectivity of the plate boundary. North and updip of the rupture area, a coherent, highly reflective plate boundary indicates excess fluid pressure, which may prevent the accumulation of elastic strain. In contrast, the rupture area is characterized by the absence of plate boundary reflectivity, which suggests low fluid pressure that results in stress accumulation and thus controls the extent of earthquake rupture. Generalizing these results, seismic reflection data can provide insights into the physical state of the shallow plate boundary and help to assess the potential for future shallow rupture in the absence of direct measurements of interplate deformation from most outermost forearc slopes.

The updip limit of seismic rupture during a megathrust earthquake exerts a major control on the size of the resulting tsunami. Offshore Northern Chile, the 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake ruptured the plate boundary between 19.5° and 21°S. Rupture terminated under the mid-continental slope and did not propagate updip to the trench. Here, we use state-of-the-art seismic reflection data to investigate the tectonic setting associated with the apparent updip arrest of rupture propagation at 15 km depth during the Iquique earthquake. We document a spatial correspondence between the rupture area and the seismic reflectivity of the plate boundary. North and updip of the rupture area, a coherent, highly reflective plate boundary indicates excess fluid pressure, which may prevent the accumulation of elastic strain. In contrast, the rupture area is characterized by the absence of plate boundary reflectivity, which suggests low fluid pressure that results in stress accumulation and thus controls the extent of earthquake rupture. Generalizing these results, seismic reflection data can provide insights into the physical state of the shallow plate boundary and help to assess the potential for future shallow rupture in the absence of direct measurements of interplate deformation from most outermost forearc slopes.

The updip limit of seismic rupture during a megathrust earthquake exerts a major control on the size of the resulting tsunami. Offshore Northern Chile, the 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake ruptured the plate boundary between 19.5° and 21°S. Rupture terminated under the mid-continental slope and did not propagate updip to the trench. Here, we use state-of-the-art seismic reflection data to investigate the tectonic setting associated with the apparent updip arrest of rupture propagation at 15 km depth during the Iquique earthquake. We document a spatial correspondence between the rupture area and the seismic reflectivity of the plate boundary. North and updip of the rupture area, a coherent, highly reflective plate boundary indicates excess fluid pressure, which may prevent the accumulation of elastic strain. In contrast, the rupture area is characterized by the absence of plate boundary reflectivity, which suggests low fluid pressure that results in stress accumulation and thus controls the extent of earthquake rupture. Generalizing these results, seismic reflection data can provide insights into the physical state of the shallow plate boundary and help to assess the potential for future shallow rupture in the absence of direct measurements of interplate deformation from most outermost forearc slopes.

Using offshore geodetic observations, we show that a segment of the North Anatolian Fault in the central Sea of Marmara is locked and therefore accumulating strain. The strain accumulation along this fault segment was previously extrapolated from onshore observations or inferred from the absence of seismicity, but both methods could not distinguish between fully locked or fully creeping fault behavior. A network of acoustic transponders measured crustal deformation with mm-precision on the seafloor for 2.5 years and did not detect any significant fault displacement. Absence of deformation together with sparse seismicity monitored by ocean bottom seismometers indicates complete fault locking to at least 3 km depth and presumably into the crystalline basement. The slip-deficit of at least 4m since the last known rupture in 1766 is equivalent to an earthquake of magnitude 7.1 to 7.4 in the Sea of Marmara offshore metropolitan Istanbul.

Using offshore geodetic observations, we show that a segment of the North Anatolian Fault in the central Sea of Marmara is locked and therefore accumulating strain. The strain accumulation along this fault segment was previously extrapolated from onshore observations or inferred from the absence of seismicity, but both methods could not distinguish between fully locked or fully creeping fault behavior. A network of acoustic transponders measured crustal deformation with mm-precision on the seafloor for 2.5 years and did not detect any significant fault displacement. Absence of deformation together with sparse seismicity monitored by ocean bottom seismometers indicates complete fault locking to at least 3 km depth and presumably into the crystalline basement. The slip-deficit of at least 4m since the last known rupture in 1766 is equivalent to an earthquake of magnitude 7.1 to 7.4 in the Sea of Marmara offshore metropolitan Istanbul.

Using offshore geodetic observations, we show that a segment of the North Anatolian Fault in the central Sea of Marmara is locked and therefore accumulating strain. The strain accumulation along this fault segment was previously extrapolated from onshore observations or inferred from the absence of seismicity, but both methods could not distinguish between fully locked or fully creeping fault behavior. A network of acoustic transponders measured crustal deformation with mm-precision on the seafloor for 2.5 years and did not detect any significant fault displacement. Absence of deformation together with sparse seismicity monitored by ocean bottom seismometers indicates complete fault locking to at least 3 km depth and presumably into the crystalline basement. The slip-deficit of at least 4m since the last known rupture in 1766 is equivalent to an earthquake of magnitude 7.1 to 7.4 in the Sea of Marmara offshore metropolitan Istanbul.