1. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
- Author
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Schewe, J., Gosling, S., Reyer, C., Zhao, F., Ciais, P., Elliott, J., Francois, L., Huber, V., Lotze, H., Seneviratne I, S., van Vliet, M., Vautard, R., Wada, Y., Breuer, L., Buechner, M., Carozza, D., Chang, J., Coll, M., Deryng, D., de Wit, A., Eddy, T., Folberth, C., Frieler, K., Friend, A., Gerten, D., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lawrence, P., Morfopoulos, C., Mueller, C., Schmied, H., Orth, R., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Pugh, T., Sakurai, G., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4637-5337, Steenbeek, J., Steinkamp, J., Tang, Q., Tian, H., Tittensor, D., Volkholz, J., Wang, X., Warszawski, L., Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), University of Nottingham, UK (UON), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), East China Normal University [Shangaï] (ECNU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Chicago, Institut d'Astrophysique et de Géophysique [Liège], Université de Liège, Dalhousie University [Halifax], Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Inst Landscape Ecol & Resources Management, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen = Justus Liebig University (JLU), Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Geosciences [Oslo], Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences [Oslo], University of Oslo (UiO)-University of Oslo (UiO), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Institute of Industrial Science (IIS), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Groupe Immunité des Muqueuses et Agents Pathogènes (GIMAP), Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor] (CEE), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (JLU), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Schewe, Jacob [0000-0001-9455-4159], Gosling, Simon N [0000-0001-5973-6862], Ciais, Philippe [0000-0001-8560-4943], Lotze, Heike K [0000-0001-6258-1304], Seneviratne, Sonia I [0000-0001-9528-2917], van Vliet, Michelle TH [0000-0002-2597-8422], Vautard, Robert [0000-0001-5544-9903], Wada, Yoshihide [0000-0003-4770-2539], Breuer, Lutz [0000-0001-9720-1076], Carozza, David A [0000-0001-7343-9442], Chang, Jinfeng [0000-0003-4463-7778], Coll, Marta [0000-0001-6235-5868], de Wit, Allard [0000-0002-5517-6404], Eddy, Tyler D [0000-0002-2833-9407], Folberth, Christian [0000-0002-6738-5238], Gerten, Dieter [0000-0002-6214-6991], Gudmundsson, Lukas [0000-0003-3539-8621], Hanasaki, Naota [0000-0002-5092-7563], Ito, Akihiko [0000-0001-5265-0791], Khabarov, Nikolay [0000-0001-5372-4668], Kim, Hyungjun [0000-0003-1083-8416], Lawrence, Peter [0000-0002-4843-4903], Müller, Christoph [0000-0002-9491-3550], Müller Schmied, Hannes [0000-0001-5330-9923], Ostberg, Sebastian [0000-0002-2368-7015], Pokhrel, Yadu [0000-0002-1367-216X], Steenbeek, Jeroen [0000-0002-7878-8075], Steinkamp, Jörg [0000-0002-7861-8789], Tang, Qiuhong [0000-0002-0886-6699], Tian, Hanqin [0000-0002-1806-4091], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, European Commission, and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany)
- Subjects
Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics ,WIMEK ,0602 Ecology ,[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology ,Science ,Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica ,Life Science ,Water Systems and Global Change ,lcsh:Q ,PE&RC ,lcsh:Science ,Article - Abstract
14 pages, 6 figures, supplementary information .-- Data availability. Simulation data from gridded impact models is available through https://esg.pik-potsdam.de/projects/isimip2a/ and citable using the following DOIs: https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.002 (terrestrial ecosystems); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.006 (agriculture); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.010 (hydrology); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2018.004 (marine ecosystems, regional); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2018.005 (marine ecosystems, global). The city-level mortality model data and country-level hydropower model data are available from the authors upon request, Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought, The work was supported within the framework of the Leibniz Competition (SAW-2013-PIK-5), the EU FP7 project HELIX (grant no. FP7–603864–2), the FP7 project IMPACT2C (grant agreement#282746) and by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, grant no. 01LS1201A1)
- Published
- 2019