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Type I interferon (IFN) pathways are significant in SLE pathogenesis. Less is known about the utility of measuring markers of IFN activity in patients, or whether patient subsets with different profiles exist. We explored the longitudinal associations of IFN-induced chemokines with disease activity in a cohort of SLE patients. We calculated a validated composite score (IFN-CK) of three type I IFN-inducible chemokines (CCL2/CXCL10/CCL19) measured in 109 SLE patients (median 7 occasions over 3.2 years). Longitudinal associations of IFN-CK score with disease activity (SLEDAI-2K) and other variables were assessed using general estimating equation (GEE) methods. IFN-CK was detectable in all patients. SLEDAI-2K was significantly associated with IFN-CK, damage score and prednisolone dose. SLEDAI-2K remained significantly associated with IFN-CK over time after adjustment of covariates. Patients with high time-adjusted mean IFN-CK had lower complement and higher time-adjusted disease activity. Concordance between IFN-CK and SLEDAI-2K varied widely among patients, with some individuals having none, others weak, and a subset very high concordance. In summary in our cohort of SLE patients, serum IFN-CK varied over time with disease activity, but with wide variation in concordance. Differing relationships between IFN pathway activation and disease activity may be valuable in assigning patients to emerging IFN-pathway targeting treatments.

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a systemic autoimmune disease characterized by the development of autoantibodies to nuclear antigens and inflammatory responses mediated by multiple cytokines. Although previous studies have determined clinical associations between SLE and the anti-inflammatory cytokines IL-10 and IL-37, their role in the disease, or their potential as biomarkers, remains unclear. We examined serum levels of IL-10 and IL-37 in a large cohort of SLE patients, with detailed longitudinal clinical data. We demonstrate a statistically significant association of serum IL-10 with disease activity, with higher levels in active compared to inactive disease. High first visit IL-10 was predictive of high subsequent disease activity; patients with IL-10 in highest quartile at first visit were 3.6 times more likely to have active disease in subsequent visits. Serum IL-37 was also higher in SLE patients compared to control, and was strongly associated with Asian ethnicity. However, IL-37 was not statistically significantly associated with disease activity. IL-37 was significantly reduced in patients with organ damage but this association was attenuated in multivariable analysis. The data suggest that IL-10, but not IL-37, may have potential as a biomarker predictive for disease activity in SLE.

Ethnicity is a key factor impacting on disease severity in SLE, but molecular mechanisms of these associations are unknown. Type I IFN and MIF have each been associated with SLE pathogenesis. We investigated whether increased SLE severity in Asian patients is associated with either MIF or Type I IFN. SLE patients (n = 151) had prospective recording of disease variables. Serum MIF, and a validated composite score of three Type I IFN-inducible chemokines (IFNCK:CCL2, CXCL10, CCL19) were measured. Associations of MIF and IFNCK score with disease activity were assessed, with persistent active disease (PAD) used as a marker of high disease activity over a median 2.6 years follow up. In univariable analysis, MIF, IFNCK score and Asian ethnicity were significantly associated with PAD. Asian ethnicity was associated with higher MIF but not IFNCK score. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, MIF (OR3.62 (95% CI 1.14,11.5), p = 0.03) and Asian ethnicity (OR3.00 (95% CI 1.39,6.46), p < 0.01) but not IFNCK were significantly associated with PAD. These results potentially support an effect of MIF, but not Type I IFN, in heightened SLE disease severity in Asian SLE. The associations of MIF and Asian ethnicity with PAD are at least partly independent.