1. Optimal intervention strategies to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic effects.
- Author
-
Kasis A, Timotheou S, Monshizadeh N, and Polycarpou M
- Subjects
- Humans, Policy, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 epidemiology, COVID-19 prevention & control, Pandemics prevention & control
- Abstract
Governments across the world are currently facing the task of selecting suitable intervention strategies to cope with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a highly challenging task, since harsh measures may result in economic collapse while a relaxed strategy might lead to a high death toll. Motivated by this, we consider the problem of forming intervention strategies to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic that optimize the trade-off between the number of deceases and the socio-economic costs. We demonstrate that the healthcare capacity and the testing rate highly affect the optimal intervention strategies. Moreover, we propose an approach that enables practical strategies, with a small number of policies and policy changes, that are close to optimal. In particular, we provide tools to decide which policies should be implemented and when should a government change to a different policy. Finally, we consider how the presented results are affected by uncertainty in the initial reproduction number and infection fatality rate and demonstrate that parametric uncertainty has a more substantial effect when stricter strategies are adopted., (© 2022. The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2022
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