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Your search keyword '"Golding, N."' showing total 21 results
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21 results on '"Golding, N."'

1. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (vol 4, pg 854, 2019)

Author

Kraemer, MUG, Reiner, RC, Brady, OJ, Messina, JP, Gilbert, M, Pigott, DM, Yi, D, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Bisanzio, D, Perkins, TA, Lai, S, Lu, X, Jones, P, Coelho, GE, Carvalho, RG, Van Bortel, W, Marsboom, C, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Moore, CG, Nax, HH, Bengtsson, L, Wetter, E, Tatem, AJ, Brownstein, JS, Smith, DL, Lambrechts, L, Cauchemez, S, Linard, C, Faria, NR, Pybus, OG, Scott, TW, Liu, Q, Yu, H, Wint, GRW, Hay, SI, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, Reiner, RC, Brady, OJ, Messina, JP, Gilbert, M, Pigott, DM, Yi, D, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Bisanzio, D, Perkins, TA, Lai, S, Lu, X, Jones, P, Coelho, GE, Carvalho, RG, Van Bortel, W, Marsboom, C, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Moore, CG, Nax, HH, Bengtsson, L, Wetter, E, Tatem, AJ, Brownstein, JS, Smith, DL, Lambrechts, L, Cauchemez, S, Linard, C, Faria, NR, Pybus, OG, Scott, TW, Liu, Q, Yu, H, Wint, GRW, Hay, SI, and Golding, N

Abstract

This Article was mistakenly not made Open Access when originally published; this has now been amended, and information about the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License has been added into the 'Additional information' section.

Published
2019

2. Utilizing general human movement models to predict the spread of emerging infectious diseases in resource poor settings

Author

Kraemer, MUG, Golding, N, Bisanzio, D, Bhatt, S, Pigott, DM, Ray, SE, Brady, OJ, Brownstein, JS, Faria, NR, Cummings, DAT, Pybus, OG, Smith, DL, Tatem, AJ, Hay, SI, Reiner, RC, Kraemer, MUG, Golding, N, Bisanzio, D, Bhatt, S, Pigott, DM, Ray, SE, Brady, OJ, Brownstein, JS, Faria, NR, Cummings, DAT, Pybus, OG, Smith, DL, Tatem, AJ, Hay, SI, and Reiner, RC

Abstract

Human mobility is an important driver of geographic spread of infectious pathogens. Detailed information about human movements during outbreaks are, however, difficult to obtain and may not be available during future epidemics. The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa between 2014-16 demonstrated how quickly pathogens can spread to large urban centers following one cross-species transmission event. Here we describe a flexible transmission model to test the utility of generalised human movement models in estimating EVD cases and spatial spread over the course of the outbreak. A transmission model that includes a general model of human mobility significantly improves prediction of EVD's incidence compared to models without this component. Human movement plays an important role not only to ignite the epidemic in locations previously disease free, but over the course of the entire epidemic. We also demonstrate important differences between countries in population mixing and the improved prediction attributable to movement metrics. Given their relative rareness, locally derived mobility data are unlikely to exist in advance of future epidemics or pandemics. Our findings show that transmission patterns derived from general human movement models can improve forecasts of spatio-temporal transmission patterns in places where local mobility data is unavailable.

Published
2019

3. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Author

Burstein, R., Henry, N. J., Collison, M. L., Marczak, L. B., Sligar, A., Watson, S., Marquez, N., Abbasalizad-Farhangi, M., Abbasi, M., Abd-Allah, F., Abdoli, A., Abdollahi, M., Abdollahpour, I., Abdulkader, R. S., Abrigo, M. R. M., Acharya, D., Adebayo, O. M., Adekanmbi, V., Adham, D., Afshari, M., Aghaali, M., Ahmadi, K., Ahmadi, M., Ahmadpour, E., Ahmed, R., Akal, C. G., Akinyemi, J. O., Alahdab, F., Alam, N., Alamene, G. M., Alene, K. A., Alijanzadeh, M., Alinia, C., Alipour, V., Aljunid, S. M., Almalki, M. J., Al-Mekhlafi, H. M., Altirkawi, K., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amegah, A. K., Amini, S., Amit, A. M. L., Anbari, Z., Androudi, S., Anjomshoa, M., Ansari, F., Antonio, C. A. T., Arabloo, J., Arefi, Z., Aremu, O., Armoon, B., Arora, A., Artaman, A., Asadi, A., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Ashraf-Ganjouei, A., Assadi, R., Ataeinia, B., Atre, S. R., Quintanilla, B. P. A., Ayanore, M. A., Azari, S., Babaee, E., Babazadeh, A., Badawi, A., Bagheri, S., Bagherzadeh, M., Baheiraei, N., Balouchi, A., Barac, A., Bassat, Q., Baune, B. T., Bayati, M., Bedi, N., Beghi, E., Behzadifar, M., Belay, Y. B., Bell, B., Bell, M. L., Berbada, D. A., Bernstein, R. S., Bhattacharjee, N. V., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z. A., Bijani, A., Bohlouli, S., Breitborde, N. J. K., Britton, G., Browne, A. J., Nagaraja, S. B., Busse, R., Butt, Z. A., Car, J., Cárdenas, R., Castañeda-Orjuela, C. A., Cerin, E., Chanie, W. F., Chatterjee, P., Chu, D. -T, Cooper, C., Costa, V. M., Dalal, Koustuv, Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Daoud, F., Daryani, A., Das Gupta, R., Davis, I., Davis Weaver, N., Davitoiu, D. V., De Neve, J. -W, Demeke, F. M., Demoz, G. T., Deribe, K., Desai, R., Deshpande, A., Desyibelew, H. D., Dey, S., Dharmaratne, S. D., Dhimal, M., Diaz, D., Doshmangir, L., Duraes, A. R., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Earl, L., Ebrahimi, R., Ebrahimpour, S., Effiong, A., Eftekhari, A., Ehsani-Chimeh, E., El Sayed, I., El Sayed Zaki, M., El Tantawi, M., El-Khatib, Z., Emamian, M. H., Enany, S., Eskandarieh, S., Eyawo, O., Ezalarab, M., Faramarzi, M., Fareed, M., Faridnia, R., Faro, A., Fazaeli, A. A., Fazlzadeh, M., Fentahun, N., Fereshtehnejad, S. -M, Fernandes, J. C., Filip, I., Fischer, F., Foigt, N. A., Foroutan, M., Francis, J. M., Fukumoto, T., Fullman, N., Gallus, S., Gebre, D. G., Gebrehiwot, T. T., Gebremeskel, G. G., Gessner, B. D., Geta, B., Gething, P. W., Ghadimi, R., Ghadiri, K., Ghajarzadeh, M., Ghashghaee, A., Gill, P. S., Gill, T. K., Golding, N., Gomes, N. G. M., Gona, P. N., Gopalani, S. V., Gorini, G., Goulart, B. N. G., Graetz, N., Greaves, F., Green, M. S., Guo, Y., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hall, B. J., Hamidi, S., Haririan, H., Haro, J. M., Hasankhani, M., Hasanpoor, E., Hasanzadeh, A., Hassankhani, H., Hassen, H. Y., Hegazy, M. I., Hendrie, D., Heydarpour, F., Hird, T. R., Hoang, C. L., Hollerich, G., Rad, E. H., Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, M., Hossain, N., Hosseini, M., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, M., Hostiuc, S., Househ, M., Hsairi, M., Ilesanmi, O. S., Imani-Nasab, M. H., Iqbal, U., Irvani, S. S. N., Islam, N., Islam, S. M. S., JÌrisson, M., Balalami, N. J., Jalali, A., Javidnia, J., Jayatilleke, A. U., Jenabi, E., Ji, J. S., Jobanputra, Y. B., Johnson, K., Jonas, J. B., Shushtari, Z. J., Jozwiak, J. J., Kabir, A., Kahsay, A., Kalani, H., Kalhor, R., Karami, M., Karki, S., Kasaeian, A., Kassebaum, N. J., Keiyoro, P. N., Kemp, G. R., Khabiri, R., Khader, Y. S., Khafaie, M. A., Khan, E. A., Khan, J., Khan, M. S., Khang, Y. -H, Khatab, K., Khater, A., Khater, M. M., Khatony, A., Khazaei, M., Khazaei, S., Khazaei-Pool, M., Khubchandani, J., Kianipour, N., Kim, Y. J., Kimokoti, R. W., Kinyoki, D. K., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kolola, T., Kosen, S., Koul, P. A., Koyanagi, A., Kraemer, M. U. G., Krishan, K., Krohn, K. J., Kugbey, N., Kumar, G. A., Kumar, M., Kumar, P., Kuupiel, D., Lacey, B., Lad, S. D., Lami, F. H., Larsson, A. O., Lee, P. H., Leili, M., Levine, A. J., Li, S., Lim, L. -L, Listl, S., Longbottom, J., Lopez, J. C. F., Lorkowski, S., Magdeldin, S., Abd El Razek, H. M., Abd El Razek, M. M., Majeed, A., Maleki, A., Malekzadeh, R., Malta, D. C., Mamun, A. A., Manafi, N., Manda, A. -L, Mansourian, M., Martins-Melo, F. R., Masaka, A., Massenburg, B. B., Maulik, P. K., Mayala, B. K., Mazidi, M., McKee, M., Mehrotra, R., Mehta, K. M., Meles, G. G., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R. G., Meretoja, A., Meretoja, T. J., Mestrovic, T., Miller, T. R., Miller-Petrie, M. K., Mills, E. J., Milne, G. J., Mini, G. K., Mir, S. M., Mirjalali, H., Mirrakhimov, E. M., Mohamadi, E., Mohammad, D. K., Darwesh, A. M., Mezerji, N. M. G., Mohammed, A. S., Mohammed, S., Mokdad, A. H., Molokhia, M., Monasta, L., Moodley, Y., Moosazadeh, M., Moradi, G., Moradi, M., Moradi, Y., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moradinazar, M., Moraga, P., Morawska, L., Mosapour, A., Mousavi, S. M., Mueller, U. O., Muluneh, A. G., Mustafa, G., Nabavizadeh, B., Naderi, M., Nagarajan, A. J., Nahvijou, A., Najafi, F., Nangia, V., Ndwandwe, D. E., Neamati, N., Negoi, I., Negoi, R. I., Ngunjiri, J. W., Thi Nguyen, H. L., Nguyen, L. H., Nguyen, S. H., Nielsen, K. R., Ningrum, D. N. A., Nirayo, Y. L., Nixon, M. R., Nnaji, C. A., Nojomi, M., Noroozi, M., Nosratnejad, S., Noubiap, J. J., Motlagh, S. N., Ofori-Asenso, R., Ogbo, F. A., Oladimeji, K. E., Olagunju, A. T., Olfatifar, M., Olum, S., Olusanya, B. O., Oluwasanu, M. M., Onwujekwe, O. E., Oren, E., Ortega-Altamirano, D. D. V., Ortiz, A., Osarenotor, O., Osei, F. B., Osgood-Zimmerman, A. E., Otstavnov, S. S., Owolabi, M. O., Mahesh, P. A., Pagheh, A. S., Pakhale, S., Panda-Jonas, S., Pandey, A., Park, E. -K, Parsian, H., Pashaei, T., Patel, S. K., Pepito, V. C. F., Pereira, A., Perkins, S., Pickering, B. V., Pilgrim, T., Pirestani, M., Piroozi, B., Pirsaheb, M., Plana-Ripoll, O., Pourjafar, H., Puri, P., Qorbani, M., Quintana, H., Rabiee, M., Rabiee, N., Radfar, A., Rafiei, A., Rahim, F., Rahimi, Z., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rahimzadeh, S., Rajati, F., Raju, S. B., Ramezankhani, A., Ranabhat, C. L., Rasella, D., Rashedi, V., Rawal, L., Reiner Jr, R. C., Renzaho, A. M. N., Rezaei, S., Rezapour, A., Riahi, S. M., Ribeiro, A. I., Roever, L., Roro, E. M., Roser, M., Roshandel, G., Roshani, D., Rostami, A., Rubagotti, E., Rubino, S., Sabour, S., Sadat, N., Sadeghi, E., Saeedi, R., Safari, Y., Safari-Faramani, R., Safdarian, M., Sahebkar, A., Salahshoor, M. R., Salam, N., Salamati, P., Salehi, F., Zahabi, S. S., Salimi, Y., Salimzadeh, H., Salomon, J. A., Sambala, E. Z., Samy, A. M., Santric Milicevic, M. M., Jose, B. P. S., Saraswathy, S. Y. I., Sarmiento-Suárez, R., Sartorius, B., Sathian, B., Saxena, S., Sbarra, A. N., Schaeffer, L. E., Schwebel, D. C., Sepanlou, S. G., Seyedmousavi, S., Shaahmadi, F., Shaikh, M. A., Shams-Beyranvand, M., Shamshirian, A., Shamsizadeh, M., Sharafi, K., Sharif, M., Sharif-Alhoseini, M., Sharifi, H., Sharma, J., Sharma, R., Sheikh, A., Shields, C., Shigematsu, M., Shiri, R., Shiue, I., Shuval, K., Siddiqi, T. J., Silva, J. P., Singh, J. A., Sinha, D. N., Sisay, M. M., Sisay, S., Sliwa, K., Smith, D. L., Somayaji, R., Soofi, M., Soriano, J. B., Sreeramareddy, C. T., Sudaryanto, A., Sufiyan, M. B., Sykes, B. L., Sylaja, P. N., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Tabb, K. M., Tabuchi, T., Taveira, N., Temsah, M. -H, Terkawi, A. S., Tessema, Z. T., Thankappan, K. R., Thirunavukkarasu, S., To, Q. G., Tovani-Palone, M. R., Tran, B. X., Tran, K. B., Ullah, I., Usman, M. S., Uthman, O. A., Vahedian-Azimi, A., Valdez, P. R., van Boven, J. F. M., Vasankari, T. J., Vasseghian, Y., Veisani, Y., Venketasubramanian, N., Violante, F. S., Vladimirov, S. K., Vlassov, V., Vos, T., Vu, G. T., Vujcic, I. S., Waheed, Y., Wakefield, J., Wang, H., Wang, Y., Wang, Y. -P, Ward, J. L., Weintraub, R. G., Weldegwergs, K. G., Weldesamuel, G. T., Westerman, R., Wiysonge, C. S., Wondafrash, D. Z., Woyczynski, L., Wu, A. -M, Xu, G., Yadegar, A., Yamada, T., Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V., Yilgwan, C. S., Yip, P., Yonemoto, N., Lebni, J. Y., Younis, M. Z., Yousefifard, M., Yousof, H. -AS. A., Yu, C., Yusefzadeh, H., Zabeh, E., Moghadam, T. Z., Bin Zaman, S., Zamani, M., Zandian, H., Zangeneh, A., Zerfu, T. A., Zhang, Y., Ziapour, A., Zodpey, S., Murray, C. J. L., Hay, S. I., Burstein, R., Henry, N. J., Collison, M. L., Marczak, L. B., Sligar, A., Watson, S., Marquez, N., Abbasalizad-Farhangi, M., Abbasi, M., Abd-Allah, F., Abdoli, A., Abdollahi, M., Abdollahpour, I., Abdulkader, R. S., Abrigo, M. R. M., Acharya, D., Adebayo, O. M., Adekanmbi, V., Adham, D., Afshari, M., Aghaali, M., Ahmadi, K., Ahmadi, M., Ahmadpour, E., Ahmed, R., Akal, C. G., Akinyemi, J. O., Alahdab, F., Alam, N., Alamene, G. M., Alene, K. A., Alijanzadeh, M., Alinia, C., Alipour, V., Aljunid, S. M., Almalki, M. J., Al-Mekhlafi, H. M., Altirkawi, K., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amegah, A. K., Amini, S., Amit, A. M. L., Anbari, Z., Androudi, S., Anjomshoa, M., Ansari, F., Antonio, C. A. T., Arabloo, J., Arefi, Z., Aremu, O., Armoon, B., Arora, A., Artaman, A., Asadi, A., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Ashraf-Ganjouei, A., Assadi, R., Ataeinia, B., Atre, S. R., Quintanilla, B. P. A., Ayanore, M. A., Azari, S., Babaee, E., Babazadeh, A., Badawi, A., Bagheri, S., Bagherzadeh, M., Baheiraei, N., Balouchi, A., Barac, A., Bassat, Q., Baune, B. T., Bayati, M., Bedi, N., Beghi, E., Behzadifar, M., Belay, Y. B., Bell, B., Bell, M. L., Berbada, D. A., Bernstein, R. S., Bhattacharjee, N. V., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z. A., Bijani, A., Bohlouli, S., Breitborde, N. J. K., Britton, G., Browne, A. J., Nagaraja, S. B., Busse, R., Butt, Z. A., Car, J., Cárdenas, R., Castañeda-Orjuela, C. A., Cerin, E., Chanie, W. F., Chatterjee, P., Chu, D. -T, Cooper, C., Costa, V. M., Dalal, Koustuv, Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Daoud, F., Daryani, A., Das Gupta, R., Davis, I., Davis Weaver, N., Davitoiu, D. V., De Neve, J. -W, Demeke, F. M., Demoz, G. T., Deribe, K., Desai, R., Deshpande, A., Desyibelew, H. D., Dey, S., Dharmaratne, S. D., Dhimal, M., Diaz, D., Doshmangir, L., Duraes, A. R., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Earl, L., Ebrahimi, R., Ebrahimpour, S., Effiong, A., Eftekhari, A., Ehsani-Chimeh, E., El Sayed, I., El Sayed Zaki, M., El Tantawi, M., El-Khatib, Z., Emamian, M. H., Enany, S., Eskandarieh, S., Eyawo, O., Ezalarab, M., Faramarzi, M., Fareed, M., Faridnia, R., Faro, A., Fazaeli, A. A., Fazlzadeh, M., Fentahun, N., Fereshtehnejad, S. -M, Fernandes, J. C., Filip, I., Fischer, F., Foigt, N. A., Foroutan, M., Francis, J. M., Fukumoto, T., Fullman, N., Gallus, S., Gebre, D. G., Gebrehiwot, T. T., Gebremeskel, G. G., Gessner, B. D., Geta, B., Gething, P. W., Ghadimi, R., Ghadiri, K., Ghajarzadeh, M., Ghashghaee, A., Gill, P. S., Gill, T. K., Golding, N., Gomes, N. G. M., Gona, P. N., Gopalani, S. V., Gorini, G., Goulart, B. N. G., Graetz, N., Greaves, F., Green, M. S., Guo, Y., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hall, B. J., Hamidi, S., Haririan, H., Haro, J. M., Hasankhani, M., Hasanpoor, E., Hasanzadeh, A., Hassankhani, H., Hassen, H. Y., Hegazy, M. I., Hendrie, D., Heydarpour, F., Hird, T. R., Hoang, C. L., Hollerich, G., Rad, E. H., Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, M., Hossain, N., Hosseini, M., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, M., Hostiuc, S., Househ, M., Hsairi, M., Ilesanmi, O. S., Imani-Nasab, M. H., Iqbal, U., Irvani, S. S. N., Islam, N., Islam, S. M. S., JÌrisson, M., Balalami, N. J., Jalali, A., Javidnia, J., Jayatilleke, A. U., Jenabi, E., Ji, J. S., Jobanputra, Y. B., Johnson, K., Jonas, J. B., Shushtari, Z. J., Jozwiak, J. J., Kabir, A., Kahsay, A., Kalani, H., Kalhor, R., Karami, M., Karki, S., Kasaeian, A., Kassebaum, N. J., Keiyoro, P. N., Kemp, G. R., Khabiri, R., Khader, Y. S., Khafaie, M. A., Khan, E. A., Khan, J., Khan, M. S., Khang, Y. -H, Khatab, K., Khater, A., Khater, M. M., Khatony, A., Khazaei, M., Khazaei, S., Khazaei-Pool, M., Khubchandani, J., Kianipour, N., Kim, Y. J., Kimokoti, R. W., Kinyoki, D. K., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kolola, T., Kosen, S., Koul, P. A., Koyanagi, A., Kraemer, M. U. G., Krishan, K., Krohn, K. J., Kugbey, N., Kumar, G. A., Kumar, M., Kumar, P., Kuupiel, D., Lacey, B., Lad, S. D., Lami, F. H., Larsson, A. O., Lee, P. H., Leili, M., Levine, A. J., Li, S., Lim, L. -L, Listl, S., Longbottom, J., Lopez, J. C. F., Lorkowski, S., Magdeldin, S., Abd El Razek, H. M., Abd El Razek, M. M., Majeed, A., Maleki, A., Malekzadeh, R., Malta, D. C., Mamun, A. A., Manafi, N., Manda, A. -L, Mansourian, M., Martins-Melo, F. R., Masaka, A., Massenburg, B. B., Maulik, P. K., Mayala, B. K., Mazidi, M., McKee, M., Mehrotra, R., Mehta, K. M., Meles, G. G., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R. G., Meretoja, A., Meretoja, T. J., Mestrovic, T., Miller, T. R., Miller-Petrie, M. K., Mills, E. J., Milne, G. J., Mini, G. K., Mir, S. M., Mirjalali, H., Mirrakhimov, E. M., Mohamadi, E., Mohammad, D. K., Darwesh, A. M., Mezerji, N. M. G., Mohammed, A. S., Mohammed, S., Mokdad, A. H., Molokhia, M., Monasta, L., Moodley, Y., Moosazadeh, M., Moradi, G., Moradi, M., Moradi, Y., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moradinazar, M., Moraga, P., Morawska, L., Mosapour, A., Mousavi, S. M., Mueller, U. O., Muluneh, A. G., Mustafa, G., Nabavizadeh, B., Naderi, M., Nagarajan, A. J., Nahvijou, A., Najafi, F., Nangia, V., Ndwandwe, D. E., Neamati, N., Negoi, I., Negoi, R. I., Ngunjiri, J. W., Thi Nguyen, H. L., Nguyen, L. H., Nguyen, S. H., Nielsen, K. R., Ningrum, D. N. A., Nirayo, Y. L., Nixon, M. R., Nnaji, C. A., Nojomi, M., Noroozi, M., Nosratnejad, S., Noubiap, J. J., Motlagh, S. N., Ofori-Asenso, R., Ogbo, F. A., Oladimeji, K. E., Olagunju, A. T., Olfatifar, M., Olum, S., Olusanya, B. O., Oluwasanu, M. M., Onwujekwe, O. E., Oren, E., Ortega-Altamirano, D. D. V., Ortiz, A., Osarenotor, O., Osei, F. B., Osgood-Zimmerman, A. E., Otstavnov, S. S., Owolabi, M. O., Mahesh, P. A., Pagheh, A. S., Pakhale, S., Panda-Jonas, S., Pandey, A., Park, E. -K, Parsian, H., Pashaei, T., Patel, S. K., Pepito, V. C. F., Pereira, A., Perkins, S., Pickering, B. V., Pilgrim, T., Pirestani, M., Piroozi, B., Pirsaheb, M., Plana-Ripoll, O., Pourjafar, H., Puri, P., Qorbani, M., Quintana, H., Rabiee, M., Rabiee, N., Radfar, A., Rafiei, A., Rahim, F., Rahimi, Z., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rahimzadeh, S., Rajati, F., Raju, S. B., Ramezankhani, A., Ranabhat, C. L., Rasella, D., Rashedi, V., Rawal, L., Reiner Jr, R. C., Renzaho, A. M. N., Rezaei, S., Rezapour, A., Riahi, S. M., Ribeiro, A. I., Roever, L., Roro, E. M., Roser, M., Roshandel, G., Roshani, D., Rostami, A., Rubagotti, E., Rubino, S., Sabour, S., Sadat, N., Sadeghi, E., Saeedi, R., Safari, Y., Safari-Faramani, R., Safdarian, M., Sahebkar, A., Salahshoor, M. R., Salam, N., Salamati, P., Salehi, F., Zahabi, S. S., Salimi, Y., Salimzadeh, H., Salomon, J. A., Sambala, E. Z., Samy, A. M., Santric Milicevic, M. M., Jose, B. P. S., Saraswathy, S. Y. I., Sarmiento-Suárez, R., Sartorius, B., Sathian, B., Saxena, S., Sbarra, A. N., Schaeffer, L. E., Schwebel, D. C., Sepanlou, S. G., Seyedmousavi, S., Shaahmadi, F., Shaikh, M. A., Shams-Beyranvand, M., Shamshirian, A., Shamsizadeh, M., Sharafi, K., Sharif, M., Sharif-Alhoseini, M., Sharifi, H., Sharma, J., Sharma, R., Sheikh, A., Shields, C., Shigematsu, M., Shiri, R., Shiue, I., Shuval, K., Siddiqi, T. J., Silva, J. P., Singh, J. A., Sinha, D. N., Sisay, M. M., Sisay, S., Sliwa, K., Smith, D. L., Somayaji, R., Soofi, M., Soriano, J. B., Sreeramareddy, C. T., Sudaryanto, A., Sufiyan, M. B., Sykes, B. L., Sylaja, P. N., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Tabb, K. M., Tabuchi, T., Taveira, N., Temsah, M. -H, Terkawi, A. S., Tessema, Z. T., Thankappan, K. R., Thirunavukkarasu, S., To, Q. G., Tovani-Palone, M. R., Tran, B. X., Tran, K. B., Ullah, I., Usman, M. S., Uthman, O. A., Vahedian-Azimi, A., Valdez, P. R., van Boven, J. F. M., Vasankari, T. J., Vasseghian, Y., Veisani, Y., Venketasubramanian, N., Violante, F. S., Vladimirov, S. K., Vlassov, V., Vos, T., Vu, G. T., Vujcic, I. S., Waheed, Y., Wakefield, J., Wang, H., Wang, Y., Wang, Y. -P, Ward, J. L., Weintraub, R. G., Weldegwergs, K. G., Weldesamuel, G. T., Westerman, R., Wiysonge, C. S., Wondafrash, D. Z., Woyczynski, L., Wu, A. -M, Xu, G., Yadegar, A., Yamada, T., Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V., Yilgwan, C. S., Yip, P., Yonemoto, N., Lebni, J. Y., Younis, M. Z., Yousefifard, M., Yousof, H. -AS. A., Yu, C., Yusefzadeh, H., Zabeh, E., Moghadam, T. Z., Bin Zaman, S., Zamani, M., Zandian, H., Zangeneh, A., Zerfu, T. A., Zhang, Y., Ziapour, A., Zodpey, S., Murray, C. J. L., and Hay, S. I.

Abstract

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. © 2019, The Author(s).

Published
2019
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4. The contemporary distribution of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in humans, alternative hosts and vectors

Author

Browne, AJ, Guerra, CA, Alves, RV, da Costa, VM, Wilson, AL, Pigott, DM, Hay, SI, Lindsay, SW, Golding, N, Moyes, CL, Browne, AJ, Guerra, CA, Alves, RV, da Costa, VM, Wilson, AL, Pigott, DM, Hay, SI, Lindsay, SW, Golding, N, and Moyes, CL

Abstract

Chagas is a potentially fatal chronic disease affecting large numbers of people across the Americas and exported throughout the world through human population movement. It is caused by the Trypanosoma cruzi parasite, which is transmitted by triatomine vectors to humans and a wide range of alternative host species. The database described here was compiled to allow the risk of vectorial transmission to humans to be mapped using geospatial models. The database collates all available records, published since 2003, for prevalence and occurrence of infection in humans, vectors and alternative hosts, and links each record to a defined time and location. A total of 16,802 records of infection have been extracted from the published literature and unpublished sources. The resulting database can be used to improve our understanding of the geographic variation in vector infection prevalence and to estimate the risk of vectorial transmission of T. cruzi to humans.

Published
2017

6. Global database of matched Plasmodium falciparum and P-vivax incidence and prevalence records from 1985-2013

Author

Battle, KE, Guerra, CA, Golding, N, Duda, KA, Cameron, E, Howes, RE, Elyazar, IRF, Baird, JK, Reiner, RC, Gething, PW, Smith, DL, Hay, SI, Battle, KE, Guerra, CA, Golding, N, Duda, KA, Cameron, E, Howes, RE, Elyazar, IRF, Baird, JK, Reiner, RC, Gething, PW, Smith, DL, and Hay, SI

Abstract

Measures of clinical incidence are necessary to help estimate the burden of a disease. Incidence is a metric not commonly measured in malariology because the longitudinal surveys required are costly and labour intensive. This database is an effort to collate published incidence records obtained using active case detection for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. The literature search methods, data abstraction procedures and data processing procedures are described here. A total of 1,680 spatio-temporally unique incidence records were collected for the database: 1,187 for P. falciparum and 493 for P. vivax. These data were gathered to model the relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence of infection and can be used for a variety of modelling exercises including the assessment of change in disease burden in relation to age and control interventions. The subset of data that have been used for such modelling exercises are described and identified.

Published
2015

7. Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia

Author

Gilbert, M, Golding, N, Zhou, H, Wint, GRW, Robinson, TP, Tatem, AJ, Lai, S, Zhou, S, Jiang, H, Guo, D, Huang, Z, Messina, JP, Xiao, X, Linard, C, Van Boeckel, TP, Martin, V, Bhatt, S, Gething, PW, Farrar, JJ, Hay, SI, Yu, H, Gilbert, M, Golding, N, Zhou, H, Wint, GRW, Robinson, TP, Tatem, AJ, Lai, S, Zhou, S, Jiang, H, Guo, D, Huang, Z, Messina, JP, Xiao, X, Linard, C, Van Boeckel, TP, Martin, V, Bhatt, S, Gething, PW, Farrar, JJ, Hay, SI, and Yu, H

Abstract

Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease.

Published
2014

8. Forecasting COVID-19 activity in Australia to support pandemic response: May to October 2020.

Author

Moss R, Price DJ, Golding N, Dawson P, McVernon J, Hyndman RJ, Shearer FM, and McCaw JM

Subjects
Humans, Disease Outbreaks, Public Health, Incidence, Forecasting, Pandemics, COVID-19 epidemiology
Abstract

As of January 2021, Australia had effectively controlled local transmission of COVID-19 despite a steady influx of imported cases and several local, but contained, outbreaks in 2020. Throughout 2020, state and territory public health responses were informed by weekly situational reports that included an ensemble forecast of daily COVID-19 cases for each jurisdiction. We present here an analysis of one forecasting model included in this ensemble across the variety of scenarios experienced by each jurisdiction from May to October 2020. We examine how successfully the forecasts characterised future case incidence, subject to variations in data timeliness and completeness, showcase how we adapted these forecasts to support decisions of public health priority in rapidly-evolving situations, evaluate the impact of key model features on forecast skill, and demonstrate how to assess forecast skill in real-time before the ground truth is known. Conditioning the model on the most recent, but incomplete, data improved the forecast skill, emphasising the importance of developing strong quantitative models of surveillance system characteristics, such as ascertainment delay distributions. Forecast skill was highest when there were at least 10 reported cases per day, the circumstances in which authorities were most in need of forecasts to aid in planning and response., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Published
2023
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9. Ensemble model for estimating continental-scale patterns of human movement: a case study of Australia.

Author

McCulloch K, Golding N, McVernon J, Goodwin S, and Tomko M

Abstract

Understanding human movement patterns at local, national and international scales is critical in a range of fields, including transportation, logistics and epidemiology. Data on human movement is increasingly available, and when combined with statistical models, enables predictions of movement patterns across broad regions. Movement characteristics, however, strongly depend on the scale and type of movement captured for a given study. The models that have so far been proposed for human movement are best suited to specific spatial scales and types of movement. Selecting both the scale of data collection, and the appropriate model for the data remains a key challenge in predicting human movements. We used two different data sources on human movement in Australia, at different spatial scales, to train a range of statistical movement models and evaluate their ability to predict movement patterns for each data type and scale. Whilst the five commonly-used movement models we evaluated varied markedly between datasets in their predictive ability, we show that an ensemble modelling approach that combines the predictions of these models consistently outperformed all individual models against hold-out data.

Published
2021
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10. Assessing biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change on regional avian biodiversity.

Author

Kapitza S, Van Ha P, Kompas T, Golding N, Cadenhead NCR, Bal P, and Wintle BA

Abstract

Climate change threatens biodiversity directly by influencing biophysical variables that drive species' geographic distributions and indirectly through socio-economic changes that influence land use patterns, driven by global consumption, production and climate. To date, no detailed analyses have been produced that assess the relative importance of, or interaction between, these direct and indirect climate change impacts on biodiversity at large scales. Here, we apply a new integrated modelling framework to quantify the relative influence of biophysical and socio-economically mediated impacts on avian species in Vietnam and Australia and we find that socio-economically mediated impacts on suitable ranges are largely outweighed by biophysical impacts. However, by translating economic futures and shocks into spatially explicit predictions of biodiversity change, we now have the power to analyse in a consistent way outcomes for nature and people of any change to policy, regulation, trading conditions or consumption trend at any scale from sub-national to global.

Published
2021
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11. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017.

Author

Burstein R, Henry NJ, Collison ML, Marczak LB, Sligar A, Watson S, Marquez N, Abbasalizad-Farhangi M, Abbasi M, Abd-Allah F, Abdoli A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abrigo MRM, Acharya D, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adham D, Afshari M, Aghaali M, Ahmadi K, Ahmadi M, Ahmadpour E, Ahmed R, Akal CG, Akinyemi JO, Alahdab F, Alam N, Alamene GM, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alinia C, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almalki MJ, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amegah AK, Amini S, Amit AML, Anbari Z, Androudi S, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Antonio CAT, Arabloo J, Arefi Z, Aremu O, Armoon B, Arora A, Artaman A, Asadi A, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Ashraf-Ganjouei A, Assadi R, Ataeinia B, Atre SR, Quintanilla BPA, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Babaee E, Babazadeh A, Badawi A, Bagheri S, Bagherzadeh M, Baheiraei N, Balouchi A, Barac A, Bassat Q, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Belay YB, Bell B, Bell ML, Berbada DA, Bernstein RS, Bhattacharjee NV, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bohlouli S, Breitborde NJK, Britton G, Browne AJ, Nagaraja SB, Busse R, Butt ZA, Car J, Cárdenas R, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Cerin E, Chanie WF, Chatterjee P, Chu DT, Cooper C, Costa VM, Dalal K, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daoud F, Daryani A, Das Gupta R, Davis I, Davis Weaver N, Davitoiu DV, De Neve JW, Demeke FM, Demoz GT, Deribe K, Desai R, Deshpande A, Desyibelew HD, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Doshmangir L, Duraes AR, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Earl L, Ebrahimi R, Ebrahimpour S, Effiong A, Eftekhari A, Ehsani-Chimeh E, El Sayed I, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, El-Khatib Z, Emamian MH, Enany S, Eskandarieh S, Eyawo O, Ezalarab M, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Faridnia R, Faro A, Fazaeli AA, Fazlzadeh M, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Filip I, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Foroutan M, Francis JM, Fukumoto T, Fullman N, Gallus S, Gebre DG, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremeskel GG, Gessner BD, Geta B, Gething PW, Ghadimi R, Ghadiri K, Ghajarzadeh M, Ghashghaee A, Gill PS, Gill TK, Golding N, Gomes NGM, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goulart BNG, Graetz N, Greaves F, Green MS, Guo Y, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hall BJ, Hamidi S, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasankhani M, Hasanpoor E, Hasanzadeh A, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Hegazy MI, Hendrie D, Heydarpour F, Hird TR, Hoang CL, Hollerich G, Rad EH, Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi M, Hossain N, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hsairi M, Ilesanmi OS, Imani-Nasab MH, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Islam N, Islam SMS, Jürisson M, Balalami NJ, Jalali A, Javidnia J, Jayatilleke AU, Jenabi E, Ji JS, Jobanputra YB, Johnson K, Jonas JB, Shushtari ZJ, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kahsay A, Kalani H, Kalhor R, Karami M, Karki S, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Khabiri R, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khan EA, Khan J, Khan MS, Khang YH, Khatab K, Khater A, Khater MM, Khatony A, Khazaei M, Khazaei S, Khazaei-Pool M, Khubchandani J, Kianipour N, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinyoki DK, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kolola T, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kraemer MUG, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kugbey N, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kuupiel D, Lacey B, Lad SD, Lami FH, Larsson AO, Lee PH, Leili M, Levine AJ, Li S, Lim LL, Listl S, Longbottom J, Lopez JCF, Lorkowski S, Magdeldin S, Abd El Razek HM, Abd El Razek MM, Majeed A, Maleki A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Manda AL, Mansourian M, Martins-Melo FR, Masaka A, Massenburg BB, Maulik PK, Mayala BK, Mazidi M, McKee M, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Meles GG, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mills EJ, Milne GJ, Mini GK, Mir SM, Mirjalali H, Mirrakhimov EM, Mohamadi E, Mohammad DK, Darwesh AM, Mezerji NMG, Mohammed AS, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moodley Y, Moosazadeh M, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Mosapour A, Mousavi SM, Mueller UO, Muluneh AG, Mustafa G, Nabavizadeh B, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Nahvijou A, Najafi F, Nangia V, Ndwandwe DE, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Ngunjiri JW, Thi Nguyen HL, Nguyen LH, Nguyen SH, Nielsen KR, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Nojomi M, Noroozi M, Nosratnejad S, Noubiap JJ, Motlagh SN, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oladimeji KE, Olagunju AT, Olfatifar M, Olum S, Olusanya BO, Oluwasanu MM, Onwujekwe OE, Oren E, Ortega-Altamirano DDV, Ortiz A, Osarenotor O, Osei FB, Osgood-Zimmerman AE, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, P A M, Pagheh AS, Pakhale S, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Park EK, Parsian H, Pashaei T, Patel SK, Pepito VCF, Pereira A, Perkins S, Pickering BV, Pilgrim T, Pirestani M, Piroozi B, Pirsaheb M, Plana-Ripoll O, Pourjafar H, Puri P, Qorbani M, Quintana H, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi Z, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahimzadeh S, Rajati F, Raju SB, Ramezankhani A, Ranabhat CL, Rasella D, Rashedi V, Rawal L, Reiner RC Jr, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei S, Rezapour A, Riahi SM, Ribeiro AI, Roever L, Roro EM, Roser M, Roshandel G, Roshani D, Rostami A, Rubagotti E, Rubino S, Sabour S, Sadat N, Sadeghi E, Saeedi R, Safari Y, Safari-Faramani R, Safdarian M, Sahebkar A, Salahshoor MR, Salam N, Salamati P, Salehi F, Zahabi SS, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Santric Milicevic MM, Jose BPS, Saraswathy SYI, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sartorius B, Sathian B, Saxena S, Sbarra AN, Schaeffer LE, Schwebel DC, Sepanlou SG, Seyedmousavi S, Shaahmadi F, Shaikh MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamshirian A, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharifi H, Sharma J, Sharma R, Sheikh A, Shields C, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shuval K, Siddiqi TJ, Silva JP, Singh JA, Sinha DN, Sisay MM, Sisay S, Sliwa K, Smith DL, Somayaji R, Soofi M, Soriano JB, Sreeramareddy CT, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tabuchi T, Taveira N, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Tessema ZT, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, To QG, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tran KB, Ullah I, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Vahedian-Azimi A, Valdez PR, van Boven JFM, Vasankari TJ, Vasseghian Y, Veisani Y, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vos T, Vu GT, Vujcic IS, Waheed Y, Wakefield J, Wang H, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward JL, Weintraub RG, Weldegwergs KG, Weldesamuel GT, Westerman R, Wiysonge CS, Wondafrash DZ, Woyczynski L, Wu AM, Xu G, Yadegar A, Yamada T, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yilgwan CS, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Lebni JY, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yousof HSA, Yu C, Yusefzadeh H, Zabeh E, Moghadam TZ, Bin Zaman S, Zamani M, Zandian H, Zangeneh A, Zerfu TA, Zhang Y, Ziapour A, Zodpey S, Murray CJL, and Hay SI

Subjects
Child, Geography, Global Health, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Organizational Objectives, Public Health, Socioeconomic Factors, United Nations, Child Mortality trends, Infant Mortality trends
Abstract

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Published
2019
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12. The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue.

Author

Messina JP, Brady OJ, Golding N, Kraemer MUG, Wint GRW, Ray SE, Pigott DM, Shearer FM, Johnson K, Earl L, Marczak LB, Shirude S, Davis Weaver N, Gilbert M, Velayudhan R, Jones P, Jaenisch T, Scott TW, Reiner RC Jr, and Hay SI

Subjects
Aedes virology, Animals, Climate Change, Dengue virology, Dengue Virus physiology, Geography, Medical, Global Health, Humans, Models, Statistical, Risk Factors, Urbanization trends, Aedes physiology, Dengue transmission, Mosquito Vectors
Abstract

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world's population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.

Published
2019
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13. Publisher Correction: Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

Author

Kraemer MUG, Reiner RC Jr, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Gilbert M, Pigott DM, Yi D, Johnson K, Earl L, Marczak LB, Shirude S, Weaver ND, Bisanzio D, Perkins TA, Lai S, Lu X, Jones P, Coelho GE, Carvalho RG, Van Bortel W, Marsboom C, Hendrickx G, Schaffner F, Moore CG, Nax HH, Bengtsson L, Wetter E, Tatem AJ, Brownstein JS, Smith DL, Lambrechts L, Cauchemez S, Linard C, Faria NR, Pybus OG, Scott TW, Liu Q, Yu H, Wint GRW, Hay SI, and Golding N

Abstract

In the version of this Article originally published, the affiliation for author Catherine Linard was incorrectly stated as ' 6 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK'. The correct affiliation is ' 9 Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium'. The affiliation for author Hongjie Yu was also incorrectly stated as ' 11 Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA'. The correct affiliation is ' 15 School of Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China'. This has now been amended in all versions of the Article.

Published
2019
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14. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

Author

Kraemer MUG, Reiner RC Jr, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Gilbert M, Pigott DM, Yi D, Johnson K, Earl L, Marczak LB, Shirude S, Davis Weaver N, Bisanzio D, Perkins TA, Lai S, Lu X, Jones P, Coelho GE, Carvalho RG, Van Bortel W, Marsboom C, Hendrickx G, Schaffner F, Moore CG, Nax HH, Bengtsson L, Wetter E, Tatem AJ, Brownstein JS, Smith DL, Lambrechts L, Cauchemez S, Linard C, Faria NR, Pybus OG, Scott TW, Liu Q, Yu H, Wint GRW, Hay SI, and Golding N

Subjects
Aedes classification, Aedes physiology, Animals, Arbovirus Infections virology, Arboviruses genetics, Female, Humans, Mosquito Vectors classification, Mosquito Vectors physiology, Aedes virology, Arbovirus Infections transmission, Arboviruses physiology, Mosquito Vectors virology
Abstract

The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases-including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.

Published
2019
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15. Utilizing general human movement models to predict the spread of emerging infectious diseases in resource poor settings.

Author

Kraemer MUG, Golding N, Bisanzio D, Bhatt S, Pigott DM, Ray SE, Brady OJ, Brownstein JS, Faria NR, Cummings DAT, Pybus OG, Smith DL, Tatem AJ, Hay SI, and Reiner RC Jr

Subjects
Africa, Western epidemiology, Humans, Ebolavirus, Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola epidemiology, Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola transmission, Human Migration, Models, Biological
Abstract

Human mobility is an important driver of geographic spread of infectious pathogens. Detailed information about human movements during outbreaks are, however, difficult to obtain and may not be available during future epidemics. The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa between 2014-16 demonstrated how quickly pathogens can spread to large urban centers following one cross-species transmission event. Here we describe a flexible transmission model to test the utility of generalised human movement models in estimating EVD cases and spatial spread over the course of the outbreak. A transmission model that includes a general model of human mobility significantly improves prediction of EVD's incidence compared to models without this component. Human movement plays an important role not only to ignite the epidemic in locations previously disease free, but over the course of the entire epidemic. We also demonstrate important differences between countries in population mixing and the improved prediction attributable to movement metrics. Given their relative rareness, locally derived mobility data are unlikely to exist in advance of future epidemics or pandemics. Our findings show that transmission patterns derived from general human movement models can improve forecasts of spatio-temporal transmission patterns in places where local mobility data is unavailable.

Published
2019
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17. The contemporary distribution of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in humans, alternative hosts and vectors.

Author

Browne AJ, Guerra CA, Alves RV, da Costa VM, Wilson AL, Pigott DM, Hay SI, Lindsay SW, Golding N, and Moyes CL

Subjects
Animals, Geography, Medical, Humans, Chagas Disease epidemiology, Insect Vectors, Trypanosoma cruzi
Abstract

Chagas is a potentially fatal chronic disease affecting large numbers of people across the Americas and exported throughout the world through human population movement. It is caused by the Trypanosoma cruzi parasite, which is transmitted by triatomine vectors to humans and a wide range of alternative host species. The database described here was compiled to allow the risk of vectorial transmission to humans to be mapped using geospatial models. The database collates all available records, published since 2003, for prevalence and occurrence of infection in humans, vectors and alternative hosts, and links each record to a defined time and location. A total of 16,802 records of infection have been extracted from the published literature and unpublished sources. The resulting database can be used to improve our understanding of the geographic variation in vector infection prevalence and to estimate the risk of vectorial transmission of T. cruzi to humans.

Published
2017
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18. Predicted global distribution of Burkholderia pseudomallei and burden of melioidosis.

Author

Limmathurotsakul D, Golding N, Dance DA, Messina JP, Pigott DM, Moyes CL, Rolim DB, Bertherat E, Day NP, Peacock SJ, and Hay SI

Subjects
Animals, Burkholderia pseudomallei classification, Environmental Microbiology, Global Health, Humans, Melioidosis microbiology, Mortality, Burkholderia pseudomallei isolation & purification, Cost of Illness, Melioidosis epidemiology, Melioidosis veterinary, Topography, Medical
Abstract

Burkholderia pseudomallei, a highly pathogenic bacterium that causes melioidosis, is commonly found in soil in Southeast Asia and Northern Australia(1,2). Melioidosis can be difficult to diagnose due to its diverse clinical manifestations and the inadequacy of conventional bacterial identification methods(3). The bacterium is intrinsically resistant to a wide range of antimicrobials, and treatment with ineffective antimicrobials may result in case fatality rates (CFRs) exceeding 70%(4,5). The importation of infected animals has, in the past, spread melioidosis to non-endemic areas(6,7). The global distribution of B. pseudomallei and the burden of melioidosis, however, remain poorly understood. Here, we map documented human and animal cases and the presence of environmental B. pseudomallei and combine this in a formal modelling framework(8-10) to estimate the global burden of melioidosis. We estimate there to be 165,000 (95% credible interval 68,000-412,000) human melioidosis cases per year worldwide, from which 89,000 (36,000-227,000) people die. Our estimates suggest that melioidosis is severely underreported in the 45 countries in which it is known to be endemic and that melioidosis is probably endemic in a further 34 countries that have never reported the disease. The large numbers of estimated cases and fatalities emphasize that the disease warrants renewed attention from public health officials and policy makers.

Published
2016
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19. Global database of matched Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax incidence and prevalence records from 1985-2013.

Author

Battle KE, Guerra CA, Golding N, Duda KA, Cameron E, Howes RE, Elyazar IR, Baird JK, Reiner RC Jr, Gething PW, Smith DL, and Hay SI

Subjects
Humans, Incidence, Malaria, Falciparum epidemiology, Malaria, Falciparum parasitology, Malaria, Vivax epidemiology, Malaria, Vivax parasitology, Prevalence, Databases, Factual, Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax
Abstract

Measures of clinical incidence are necessary to help estimate the burden of a disease. Incidence is a metric not commonly measured in malariology because the longitudinal surveys required are costly and labour intensive. This database is an effort to collate published incidence records obtained using active case detection for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. The literature search methods, data abstraction procedures and data processing procedures are described here. A total of 1,680 spatio-temporally unique incidence records were collected for the database: 1,187 for P. falciparum and 493 for P. vivax. These data were gathered to model the relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence of infection and can be used for a variety of modelling exercises including the assessment of change in disease burden in relation to age and control interventions. The subset of data that have been used for such modelling exercises are described and identified.

Published
2015
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20. A comprehensive database of the geographic spread of past human Ebola outbreaks.

Author

Mylne A, Brady OJ, Huang Z, Pigott DM, Golding N, Kraemer MU, and Hay SI

Subjects
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola transmission, Humans, Databases, Factual, Disease Outbreaks, Ebolavirus, Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola epidemiology
Abstract

Ebola is a zoonotic filovirus that has the potential to cause outbreaks of variable magnitude in human populations. This database collates our existing knowledge of all known human outbreaks of Ebola for the first time by extracting details of their suspected zoonotic origin and subsequent human-to-human spread from a range of published and non-published sources. In total, 22 unique Ebola outbreaks were identified, composed of 117 unique geographic transmission clusters. Details of the index case and geographic spread of secondary and imported cases were recorded as well as summaries of patient numbers and case fatality rates. A brief text summary describing suspected routes and means of spread for each outbreak was also included. While we cannot yet include the ongoing Guinea and DRC outbreaks until they are over, these data and compiled maps can be used to gain an improved understanding of the initial spread of past Ebola outbreaks and help evaluate surveillance and control guidelines for limiting the spread of future epidemics.

Published
2014
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21. Global database of leishmaniasis occurrence locations, 1960-2012.

Author

Pigott DM, Golding N, Messina JP, Battle KE, Duda KA, Balard Y, Bastien P, Pratlong F, Brownstein JS, Freifeld CC, Mekaru SR, Madoff LC, George DB, Myers MF, and Hay SI

Subjects
Data Collection methods, Humans, Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous epidemiology, Leishmaniasis, Visceral epidemiology, Public Health, Databases, Factual, Leishmaniasis epidemiology, Neglected Diseases epidemiology
Abstract

The leishmaniases are neglected tropical diseases of significant public health importance. However, information on their global occurrence is disparate and sparse. This database represents an attempt to collate reported leishmaniasis occurrences from 1960 to 2012. Methodology for the collection of data from the literature, abstraction of case locations and data processing procedures are described here. In addition, strain archives and online data resources were accessed. A total of 12,563 spatially and temporally unique occurrences of both cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis comprise the database, ranging in geographic scale from villages to states. These data can be used for a variety of mapping and spatial analyses covering multiple resolutions.

Published
2014
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