1. Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential
- Author
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Mo, Lidong; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3805-7638, Zohner, Constantin M; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8302-4854, Reich, Peter B; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4424-662X, Liang, Jingjing; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9439-9320, de Miguel, Sergio; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9738-0657, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9761-074X, Renner, Susanne S; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3704-0703, van den Hoogen, Johan, Araza, Arnan, Herold, Martin; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0246-6886, Mirzagholi, Leila, Ma, Haozhi; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0709-1438, Averill, Colin; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4035-7760, Phillips, Oliver L; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8993-6168, Gamarra, Javier G P; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1290-9559, Hordijk, Iris; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6302-6254, Routh, Devin; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5910-8847, Abegg, Meinrad; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5151-5889, Adou Yao, Yves C; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9408-3497, Alberti, Giorgio; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2422-3009, Almeyda Zambrano, Angelica M, Alvarado, Braulio Vilchez, Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban, Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia, Alves, Luciana F; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8944-1851, Amaral, Iêda, Ammer, Christian; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4235-0135, Antón-Fernández, Clara; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5545-3320, Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro, Arroyo, Luzmila, Schmid, Bernhard; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8430-3214, et al, Mo, Lidong; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3805-7638, Zohner, Constantin M; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8302-4854, Reich, Peter B; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4424-662X, Liang, Jingjing; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9439-9320, de Miguel, Sergio; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9738-0657, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9761-074X, Renner, Susanne S; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3704-0703, van den Hoogen, Johan, Araza, Arnan, Herold, Martin; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0246-6886, Mirzagholi, Leila, Ma, Haozhi; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0709-1438, Averill, Colin; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4035-7760, Phillips, Oliver L; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8993-6168, Gamarra, Javier G P; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1290-9559, Hordijk, Iris; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6302-6254, Routh, Devin; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5910-8847, Abegg, Meinrad; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5151-5889, Adou Yao, Yves C; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9408-3497, Alberti, Giorgio; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2422-3009, Almeyda Zambrano, Angelica M, Alvarado, Braulio Vilchez, Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban, Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia, Alves, Luciana F; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8944-1851, Amaral, Iêda, Ammer, Christian; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4235-0135, Antón-Fernández, Clara; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5545-3320, Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro, Arroyo, Luzmila, Schmid, Bernhard; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8430-3214, and et al
- Abstract
Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system$^{1}$. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests$^{2–5}$ are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced$^{6}$ and satellite-derived approaches$^{2,7,8}$ to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea$^{2,3,9}$ that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.
- Published
- 2023