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Abstract Background Breast density is an important risk factor for breast cancer complemented by a higher risk of cancers being missed during screening of dense breasts due to reduced sensitivity of mammography. Automated, deep learning-based prediction of breast density could provide subject-specific risk assessment and flag difficult cases during screening. However, there is a lack of evidence for generalisability across imaging techniques and, importantly, across race. Methods This study used a large, racially diverse dataset with 69,697 mammographic studies comprising 451,642 individual images from 23,057 female participants. A deep learning model was developed for four-class BI-RADS density prediction. A comprehensive performance evaluation assessed the generalisability across two imaging techniques, full-field digital mammography (FFDM) and two-dimensional synthetic (2DS) mammography. A detailed subgroup performance and bias analysis assessed the generalisability across participants’ race. Results Here we show that a model trained on FFDM-only achieves a 4-class BI-RADS classification accuracy of 80.5% (79.7–81.4) on FFDM and 79.4% (78.5–80.2) on unseen 2DS data. When trained on both FFDM and 2DS images, the performance increases to 82.3% (81.4–83.0) and 82.3% (81.3–83.1). Racial subgroup analysis shows unbiased performance across Black, White, and Asian participants, despite a separate analysis confirming that race can be predicted from the images with a high accuracy of 86.7% (86.0–87.4). Conclusions Deep learning-based breast density prediction generalises across imaging techniques and race. No substantial disparities are found for any subgroup, including races that were never seen during model development, suggesting that density predictions are unbiased.

Abstract Image-based prediction models for disease detection are sensitive to changes in data acquisition such as the replacement of scanner hardware or updates to the image processing software. The resulting differences in image characteristics may lead to drifts in clinically relevant performance metrics which could cause harm in clinical decision making, even for models that generalise in terms of area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. We propose Unsupervised Prediction Alignment, a generic automatic recalibration method that requires no ground truth annotations and only limited amounts of unlabelled example images from the shifted data distribution. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method to detect and correct performance drift in mammography-based breast cancer screening and on publicly available histopathology data. We show that the proposed method can preserve the expected performance in terms of sensitivity/specificity under various realistic scenarios of image acquisition shift, thus offering an important safeguard for clinical deployment.