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Abstract The risk of relapse after antidepressant medication (ADM) discontinuation is high. Predictors of relapse could guide clinical decision-making, but are yet to be established. We assessed demographic and clinical variables in a longitudinal observational study before antidepressant discontinuation. State-dependent variables were re-assessed either after discontinuation or before discontinuation after a waiting period. Relapse was assessed during 6 months after discontinuation. We applied logistic general linear models in combination with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and elastic nets to avoid overfitting in order to identify predictors of relapse and estimated their generalisability using cross-validation. The final sample included 104 patients (age: 34.86 (11.1), 77% female) and 57 healthy controls (age: 34.12 (10.6), 70% female). 36% of the patients experienced a relapse. Treatment by a general practitioner increased the risk of relapse. Although within-sample statistical analyses suggested reasonable sensitivity and specificity, out-of-sample prediction of relapse was at chance level. Residual symptoms increased with discontinuation, but did not relate to relapse. Demographic and standard clinical variables appear to carry little predictive power and therefore are of limited use for patients and clinicians in guiding clinical decision-making.

Abstract The risk of relapsing into depression after stopping antidepressants is high, but no established predictors exist. Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI) measures may help predict relapse and identify the mechanisms by which relapses occur. rsfMRI data were acquired from healthy controls and from patients with remitted major depressive disorder on antidepressants. Patients were assessed a second time either before or after discontinuation of the antidepressant, and followed up for six months to assess relapse. A seed-based functional connectivity analysis was conducted focusing on the left subgenual anterior cingulate cortex and left posterior cingulate cortex. Seeds in the amygdala and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex were explored. 44 healthy controls (age: 33.8 (10.5), 73% female) and 84 patients (age: 34.23 (10.8), 80% female) were included in the analysis. 29 patients went on to relapse and 38 remained well. The seed-based analysis showed that discontinuation resulted in an increased functional connectivity between the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and the parietal cortex in non-relapsers. In an exploratory analysis, this functional connectivity predicted relapse risk with a balanced accuracy of 0.86. Further seed-based analyses, however, failed to reveal differences in functional connectivity between patients and controls, between relapsers and non-relapsers before discontinuation and changes due to discontinuation independent of relapse. In conclusion, changes in the connectivity between the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and the posterior default mode network were associated with and predictive of relapse after open-label antidepressant discontinuation. This finding requires replication in a larger dataset.