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Abstract Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most dangerous malignant tumors. The incidence rates of obesity related NAFLD and NASH are increasing year by year, and they are the main risk factors for HCC at present. Finding the mechanism of malignant transformation of NAFLD and NASH is helpful for early prevention and diagnosis. In this study, we performed differential analysis using NAFLD data, NASH data, and HCC data to identify crossover differential genes. Then, using the clinical data of TCGA, a prognostic risk prediction model of three genes (TEAD4, SOCS2, CIT) was constructed, and survival analysis and receiver operating characteristic curves were drawn. The prognostic model was validated using ICGC, GSE116174 and GSE54236 datasets. In addition, we assessed immune status and function in high- and low-risk populations using a prognostic model. Moreover, we assessed the expression of CIT in clinical samples and HCC cell lines and validated its role in HCC development. Our study elucidates the important role of the tumor immune microenvironment in the development of NAFLD/NASH to HCC, deepens the understanding of the pathogenesis of NAFLD/NASH development to HCC, and is helpful for clinical management and decision-making.