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Abstract Habitat selection studies facilitate assessing and predicting species distributions and habitat connectivity, but habitat selection can vary temporally and among individuals, which is often ignored. We used GPS telemetry data from 96 Gray wolves (Canis lupus) in the western Great Lakes region of the USA to assess differences in habitat selection while wolves exhibited resident (territorial) or non-resident (dispersing or floating) movements and discuss implications for habitat connectivity. We used a step-selection function (SSF) to assess habitat selection by wolves exhibiting resident or non-resident movements, and modeled circuit connectivity throughout the western Great Lakes region. Wolves selected for natural land cover and against areas with high road densities, with no differences in selection among wolves when resident, dispersing, or floating. Similar habitat selection between resident and non-resident wolves may be due to similarity in environmental conditions, when non-resident movements occur largely within established wolf range rather than near the periphery or beyond the species range. Alternatively, non-resident wolves may travel through occupied territories because higher food availability or lower human disturbance outweighs risks posed by conspecifics. Finally, an absence of differences in habitat selection between resident and non-resident wolf movements may be due to other unknown reasons. We recommend considering context-dependency when evaluating differences in movements and habitat use between resident and non-resident individuals. Our results also provide independent validation of a previous species distribution model and connectivity analysis suggesting most potential wolf habitat in the western Great Lakes region is occupied, with limited connectivity to unoccupied habitat.

Abstract Using existing data can be a reliable and cost-effective way to predict species distributions, and particularly useful for recovering or expanding species. We developed a current gray wolf (Canis lupus) distribution model for the western Great Lakes region, USA, and evaluated the spatial transferability of single-state models to the region. This study is the first assessment of transferability in a wide-ranging carnivore, as well as one of few developed for large spatial extents. We collected 3500 wolf locations from winter surveys in Minnesota (2017–2019), Wisconsin (2019–2020), and Michigan (2017–2020). We included 10 variables: proportion of natural cover, pastures, and crops; distance to natural cover, agriculture, developed land, and water; major and minor road density; and snowfall (1-km res.). We created a regional ensemble distribution by weight-averaging eight models based on their performance. We also developed single-state models, and estimated spatial transferability using two approaches: state cross-validation and extrapolation. We assessed performance by quantifying correlations, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), sensitivities, and two niche similarity indices. The regional area estimated to be most suitable for wolves during winter (threshold = maximum sensitivity/specificity) was 106,465 km2 (MN = 48,083 km2, WI = 27,757 km2, MI = 30,625 km2) and correctly predicted 88% of wolf locations analyzed. Increasing natural cover and distance to crops were consistently important for determining regional and single-state wolf distribution. Extrapolation (vs. cross-validation) produced results with the greatest performance metrics, and were most similar to the regional model, yet good internal performance was unrelated to greater extrapolation performance. Factors influencing species distributions are scale-dependent and can vary across areas due to behavioral plasticity. When extending inferences beyond the current occurrence of individuals, assessing variation in ecology such as habitat selection, as well as methodological factors including model performance, will be critical to avoid poor scientific interpretations and develop effective conservation applications. In particular, accurate distribution models for recovering or recovered carnivores can be used to develop plans for habitat management, quantify potential of unoccupied habitat, assess connectivity modeling, and mitigate conflict, facilitating long-term species persistence.