1. Long-Term Exposure to Fine Particle Elemental Components and Natural and Cause-Specific Mortality-a Pooled Analysis of Eight European Cohorts within the ELAPSE Project
- Author
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Daniela Fecht, Klea Katsouyanni, Ole Hertel, Anton Lager, Danielle Vienneau, Sophia Rodopoulou, Ulla Arthur Hvidtfeldt, Matteo Renzi, Torben Sigsgaard, Francesco Forastiere, Karl-Heinz Jöckel, Jørgen Brandt, Jochem O. Klompmaker, Gabriele Nagel, Per E. Schwarze, Gudrun Weinmayr, Kathrin Wolf, Bert Brunekreef, Amar Mehta, Tom Bellander, Annette Peters, Hans Concin, Sara Schramm, Bente Oftedal, Conor James MacDonald, Matthias Ketzel, Massimo Stafoggia, John S. Gulliver, Göran Pershagen, Mette Sørensen, Shuo Liu, Ole Raaschou-Nielsen, Jie Chen, Maciej Strak, Richard Atkinson, Jeanette Therming Jørgensen, Karin Leander, Debora Rizzuto, Yvonne T. van der Schouw, Giulia Cesaroni, Gerard Hoek, Evangelia Samoli, Kees de Hoogh, Anne Tjønneland, Petter Ljungman, Nicole A.H. Janssen, Barbara Hoffmann, Zorana Jovanovic Andersen, Patrik K. E. Magnusson, Mariska Bauwelinck, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences and Solvay Business School, and Sociology
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Fine particulate ,Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis ,05 Environmental Sciences ,Medizin ,PM2.5 ,010501 environmental sciences ,Atmospheric sciences ,Toxicology ,PROFILE ,ESCAPE ,complex mixtures ,01 natural sciences ,Cohort Studies ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,USE REGRESSION-MODELS ,PARTICULATE MATTER ,Air Pollution ,Cause of Death ,Humans ,Aerodynamic diameter ,030212 general & internal medicine ,11 Medical and Health Sciences ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,RISK ,Air Pollutants ,Research ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Cause specific mortality ,MEN ,Environmental Exposure ,Middle Aged ,Particulates ,Term (time) ,Pooled analysis ,Particle ,Environmental science ,Particulate Matter - Abstract
BACKGROUND: Inconsistent associations between long-term exposure to particles with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μ m [fine particulate matter ( PM 2.5 )] components and mortality have been reported, partly related to challenges in exposure assessment. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the associations between long-term exposure to PM 2.5 elemental components and mortality in a large pooled European cohort; to compare health effects of PM 2.5 components estimated with two exposure modeling approaches, namely, supervised linear regression (SLR) and random forest (RF) algorithms. METHODS: We pooled data from eight European cohorts with 323,782 participants, average age 49 y at baseline (1985-2005). Residential exposure to 2010 annual average concentration of eight PM 2.5 components [copper (Cu), iron (Fe), potassium (K), nickel (Ni), sulfur (S), silicon (Si), vanadium (V), and zinc (Zn)] was estimated with Europe-wide SLR and RF models at a 100 × 100 m scale. We applied Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the associations between components and natural and cause-specific mortality. In addition, two-pollutant analyses were conducted by adjusting each component for PM 2.5 mass and nitrogen dioxide ( NO 2 ) separately. RESULTS: We observed 46,640 natural-cause deaths with 6,317,235 person-years and an average follow-up of 19.5 y. All SLR-modeled components were statistically significantly associated with natural-cause mortality in single-pollutant models with hazard ratios (HRs) from 1.05 to 1.27. Similar HRs were observed for RF-modeled Cu, Fe, K, S, V, and Zn with wider confidence intervals (CIs). HRs for SLR-modeled Ni, S, Si, V, and Zn remained above unity and (almost) significant after adjustment for both PM 2.5 and NO 2 . HRs only remained (almost) significant for RF-modeled K and V in two-pollutant models. The HRs for V were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.05) and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.10) for SLR- and RF-modeled exposures, respectively, per 2 ng / m 3 , adjusting for PM 2.5 mass. Associations with cause-specific mortality were less consistent in two-pollutant models. CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to V in PM 2.5 was most consistently associated with increased mortality. Associations for the other components were weaker for exposure modeled with RF than SLR in two-pollutant models. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8368.
- Published
- 2021