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Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Females of dioecious plant species typically invest more in reproduction than males because they produce seeds, fruits, and associated structures in addition to flowers. If females are unable to compensate by up-regulating rates of photosynthesis or by reproducing less frequently than males, their greater reproductive investment may result in reduced growth or higher mortality. Here we provide evidence of the cost of reproduction in Ocotea tenera (Lauraceae), a dioecious neotropical tree common in lower montane forests of Monteverde, Costa Rica. Over periods of 12-21 years, females grew more slowly than males in a natural population and in two experimental plots where we were able to control for genotype, age, habitat, and reproductive history. Simultaneous measurements of 10 matched pairs of sibling trees of the opposite sex but same age demonstrated that the photosynthetic capacities of females were 13% lower than those of males. Among females, photosynthetic capacity was negatively correlated with fruit production during the most recent reproductive season but not with lifetime fruit production. Sexual size dimorphism in adult O. tenera trees appears to be a nonadaptive consequence of trading off recent reproduction against maintenance of the photosynthetic apparatus, with long-term negative effects on growth.