Search

The future telecommunications capacity and connectivity requirements of the United States (US) research and development (R&D) community raise two concerns. First, would there be adequate privately-owned communications capacity to meet the ever-increasing requirements of the US R&D community for domestic and international connectivity? Second, is the method of piecemeal implementation of communications facilities by individual researchers cost effective when viewed from an integrated perspective? To address the capacity issue, Contel recently completed a study for NASA identifying the current domestic R&D telecommunications capacity and connectivity requirements, and projecting the same to the years 1991, 1996, 2000, and 2010. The work reported here extends the scope of an earlier study by factoring in the impact of international connectivity requirements on capacity and connectivity forecasts. Most researchers in foreign countries, as is the case with US researchers, rely on regional, national or continent-wide networks to collaborate with each other, and their US counterparts. The US researchers' international connectivity requirements, therefore, stem from the need to link the US domestic research networks to foreign research networks. The number of links and, more importantly, the speeds of links are invariably determined by the characteristics of the networks being linked. The major thrust of this study, therefore, was to identify and characterize the foreign research networks, to quantify the current status of their connectivity to the US networks, and to project growth in the connectivity requirements to years 1991, 1996, 2000, and 2010 so that a composite picture of the US research networks in the same years could be forecasted. The current (1990) US integrated research network, and its connectivity to foreign research networks is shown. As an example of projections, the same for the year 2010 is shown.

During the last decade, NASA LeRC's Communication Program has conducted a series of telecommunications forecasting studies to project trends and requirements and to identify critical telecommunications technologies that must be developed to meet future requirements. The Government Networks Division of Contel Federal Systems has assisted NASA in these studies, and the current study builds upon these earlier efforts. The current major thrust of the NASA Communications Program is aimed at developing the high risk, advanced, communications satellite and terminal technologies required to significantly increase the capacity of future communications systems. Also, major new technological, economic, and social-political events and trends are now shaping the communications industry of the future. Therefore, a re-examination of future telecommunications needs and requirements is necessary to enable NASA to make management decisions in its Communications Program and to ensure the proper technologies and systems are addressed. This study, through a series of Task Orders, is helping NASA define the likely communication service needs and requirements of the future and thereby ensuring that the most appropriate technology developments are pursued.

The overall purpose was to forecast the potential United States domestic telecommunications demand for satellite provided customer promises voice, data and video services through the year 2000, so that this information on service demand would be available to aid in NASA program planning. To accomplish this overall purpose the following objectives were achieved: (1) development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand; (2) identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems; (3) identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by consumer promises service (CPS) systems; (4) identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Ka-band CPS system; and (5) postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a parametric cost model, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for: 1980, 1990, and 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

Voice applications, data applications, video applications, impacted baseline forecasts, market distribution model, net long haul forecasts, trunking earth station definition and costs, trunking space segment cost, trunking entrance/exit links, trunking network costs and crossover distances with terrestrial tariffs, net addressable forecasts, capacity requirements, improving spectrum utilization, satellite system market development, and the 30/20 net accessible market are considered.

The potential United States domestic telecommunications demand for satellite provided customer premises voice, data and video services through the year 2000 were forecast, so that this information on service demand would be available to aid in NASA program planning. To accomplish this overall purpose the following objectives were achieved: development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand, identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Computer premises services systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressabble by Ka-band CPS system, and postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for; 1980, 1990, and 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

Development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand, identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by CPS systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Ka-band CPS system, and postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level were achieved. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a parametric cost model, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for: 1980, 1990, 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

Potential satellite-provided fixed communications services, baseline forecasts, net long haul forecasts, cost analysis, net addressable forecasts, capacity requirements, and satellite system market development are considered.

Voice applications, data applications, video applications, impacted baseline forecasts, market distribution, potential CPS (customers premises services) user classes, net long haul forecasts, CPS cost analysis, overall satellite forecast, CPS satellite market, Ka-band CPS satellite forecast, nationwide traffic distribution model, and intra-urban topology are discussed.

Telecommunications service demand, net addressable forecast, capacity requirements, and satellite system market development are considered.