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This paper develops a general equilibrium life-cycle model with endogenous retirement and disability risk, in order to quantify the impact of recent pension reforms in Germany. At certain ages households may either apply for disability pensions (DP) or old-age pensions (OAP), de-pending on eligibility rules and the generosity of the two programs. Our policy analysis focus on the increase in the normal retirement age (NRA) from age 65 to 67 (Reform 2007) and the recent increase in the maximum assessment age (MAA) for DP benefits (Reform 2018). In contrast to the first reform, the second reform received hardly any attention in the public pension debate in Germany. Our simulation results indicate that with current eligibility and benefit rules, the second reform will almost neutralize the financial and economic benefits of the first reform. Consequently, securing the financial stability of the system will require a tightening of eligibility rules and/or a reduction of early retirement benefits in the future.

Since the financial crisis in 2008, slow growth has riddled Europe and the Covid-19 pandemic is amplifying the challenge. Promoting economic growth and transforming to a more knowledge-based industrial structure will be high on the agenda for the coming decades. We study how more and better human capital can contribute to knowledge accumulation and structural change by means of a dynamic endogenous growth model, with Norway as a numerical case. Human capital has two main roles in productivity growth: to increase the innovative capacity by participating in research and development (R&D), and to increase the absorptive capacity in sectors that trade and can learn from abroad. We find that in a small, open economy sectors where human capital, R&D and trade interact, and enable absorption, tend to grow fastest.

Larger Indian firms selling inputs to other firms tend to have more customers, tend to be used more intensively by their customers, and tend to have larger customers. Motivated by these regularities, I propose a novel empirical model of trade featuring endogenous formation of input-output linkages between spatially distant firms. The empirical model consists of (a) a theoretical framework that accommodates first order features of firm-to-firm network data, (b) a maximum likelihood framework for structural estimation that is uninhibited by the scale of data, and (c) a procedure for counterfactual analysis that speaks to the effects of micro- and macroshocks to the spatial network economy. In the model, firms with low production costs end up larger because they find more customers, are used more intensively by their customers and in turn their customers lower production costs and end up larger themselves. The model is estimated using novel micro-data on firm-to-firm sales between Indian firms. The estimated model implies that a 10% decline in inter-state border frictions in India leads to welfare gains ranging between 1% and 8% across districts. Moreover, over half of the variation in changes in firms’ sales to other firms can be explained by endogenous changes in the network structure.

We estimate the short-run trade effects of natural disasters using monthly trade data and data on the physical intensity of earthquakes and storms. We find large negative effects for heavily indebted poor, least developed or landlocked developing countries but only small effects for other economies. We use our estimates to identify key parameters of a dynamic quantitative trade model to disentangle the effects of disasters on supply, demand, and welfare and their spillovers on third countries via trade linkages. We apply our model to quantify the effects of the 1992 earthquake in Nicaragua, a small, heavily indebted poor country, and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, a large developed economy. We find that spillovers are negligible if the country affected by a disaster is small but sizable for large economies. Similar disasters have heterogeneous effects on countries’ demand and supply, highlighting the importance of event-specific policies in the aftermath of disasters.

We present new empirical evidence on the distribution of earnings, income and wealth among entrepreneurs in Germany. We document that both earnings and income are more concentrated among entrepreneurs than among workers and describe a large-scale overlapping-generations model that can replicate these findings. As an application, we compute the equilibrium effects of a reform of the German pay-as-you-go pension system in which entrepreneurs must also contribute and receive a pension. We show that in the presence of mobility between workers and entrepreneurs, the expected lifetime utility of all newborn households unanimously declines due to the general equilibrium effects of lower aggregate savings, and welfare losses amount to approximately 5% of total consumption. In addition, the integration of self-employed workers into the social security system in Germany does not help to improve its fiscal sustainability, and only an increase in the retirement age to 70 years will help to finance pensions at the present level beyond the year 2050.

The taxation of bequests can have a positive impact on the labor supply of heirs through wealth effects. This leads to an increase in future labor income tax revenue on top of direct bequest tax revenue. We first show in a theoretical model that a simple back-of-the-envelope calculation, based on existing estimates for the reduction in earnings after wealth transfers, fails: the marginal propensity to earn out of unearned income is not a sufficient statistic for the calculation of this effect because (i) heirs anticipate the reduction in net bequests and adjust their labor supply already prior to inheriting, and (ii) when bequest receipt is stochastic, even those who ex post end up not inheriting anything respond ex ante to the implied change in their distribution of net bequests. We quantitatively elaborate the size of the overall revenue effect due to labor supply changes of heirs by using a state of the art life-cycle model that we calibrate to the German economy. Besides the joint distribution of income and inheritances, quasi-experimental evidence regarding the size of wealth effects on labor supply is a key target for this calibration. We find that for each Euro of bequest tax revenue the government mechanically generates, it obtains an additional 9 Cents of labor income tax revenue (in net present value) through higher labor supply of (non-)heirs.

We develop a stylized general equilibrium model to decompose the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvements into its partial and general equilibrium components. In our theoretical analysis, we identify key drivers of the general equilibrium rebound effect, including a composition channel, an energy price channel, a labor supply channel, and a growth channel. Based on numerical simulations with both the stylized model as well as a large-scale computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, we show that both general and partial equilibrium components of the rebound effect can be substantial. Our benchmark parameterization suggests a total rebound effect due to an exogenous energy efficiency improvement in the US manufacturing sector of 67% with roughly two-thirds occurring through the partial equilibrium rebound channel and the remaining one-third occurring through the general equilibrium rebound channel.

Mainstream economic wisdom favoring cooperative free trade is challenged by a wave of disruptive trade policies. In this paper, we provide quantitative evidence concerning the economic impacts of tariffs implemented by the United States in 2018 and the subsequent retaliations by partner countries. Our analysis builds on a multi-region multi-sector general-equilibrium simulation model of the global economy that includes an innovative monopolistic-competition structure of bilateral representative firms.

This paper estimates the size and macroeconomic effects of base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) using a computable general equilibrium model designed for corporate taxation and multinationals. Our central estimate of the impact of BEPS on corporate tax losses for the EU amounts to €36 billion annually or 7.7% of total corporate tax revenues. The USA and Japan also appear to loose tax revenues respectively of €101 and €24 billion per year or 10.7% of corporate tax revenues in both cases. These estimates are consistent with gaps in bilateral multinationals´ activities reported by creditor and debtor countries using official statistics for the EU. Our results suggest that by increasing the cost of capital, eliminating profit shifting would slightly reduce investment and GDP. It would however raise corporate tax revenues thanks to enhanced domestic production. This in turn could reduce other taxes and increase welfare.

To help first- or second-year graduate students in economics apply their theoretical training, this paper shows how to solve a simple and intuitive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model using a calculator. Because this simplified Harberger model uses Cobb Douglas functional forms for utility and production, one can solve for all input and output prices and quantities with no taxes and then solve for exact measures of output with a large tax change (not using derivatives). We then show how to solve simultaneously for capital and labor prices (incidence on the sources side of income), for both output prices (incidence on the uses side), for exact measures of overall welfare loss such as the equivalent variation, for excess burden and marginal excess burden, and for the effects on revenue in the form of a Laffer Curve.

The paper compares two state-of-art but very dinstinct methods used in macroeconomics: rational-expectations DSGE and bounded rationality behavioural models. Both models are extended to include a financial friction on the supply side.The result in both models is that production, supply of credit and the front payment to capital producers depend heavily on the stock market cycles. During phases of optimism, credit is abundant, access to production capital is easy, the cash-in-advance constraint is lax, the risks are undervalued, and production is booming. But upon reversal in market sentiment, the contraction in all these parameters is deeper and asymmetric. This is even more evident in the behavioural model, where cognitive limitations of economic agents result in exacerbation of the contraction. While both models capture the empirical regularities very well, the validation exercise is even more favourable to the behavioural model.

The rapid growth of ASEAN economies, the People’s Republic of China and India (called ACI henceforth) — major drivers of Asia and the world economy—during the last five decades has caused significant strains on their scarce resources, particularly energy and contributed to serious problems of energy security, environmental degradation and climate change. In coming decades, these economies are expected to witness high growth, lack of adequate traditional energy sources, high dependence on imported energy, heavy reliance on energy-intensive industries, and rising transportation demands. In the coming decades, their energy demand may create serious challenges in terms of energy security. Adopting sustainable and innovative management practices and policies for key resources such as energy and mitigating environment and climate change problems are among major common challenges for all the ACI economies. This paper examines primarily on the ACI’s sustainable energy security outlook until 2030 through an overview of the ACI’s energy resources, production mix, consumption mix, emissions of greenhouse gases, and the state of the development of renewable, clean and new energy. The paper projects the ACI’s energy demand and its impact on carbon dioxide emissions until 2030 under different policy scenarios using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis. Furthermore, the paper evaluates ACI’s sustainable energy security situation through examining ACI’s energy self-sufficiency, dependence on imported energy, energy import diversification transportation security and energy infrastructure financing. Lastly it provides some policy recommendation to achieve sustainable energy security in ACI.

This paper provides a quantitative analysis of hypothetical replacements of existing tax arrangements applied to superannuation (Australia.s term for private pensions) with traditional EET and TEE regimes. These taxation regimes exempt pension fund earnings from any taxation and tax either benefits or contributions progressively as regular incomes. By contrast, superannuation taxation features concessional flat tax rates on contributions and fund earnings, with benefits being generally tax free. Using an overlapping-generations model calibrated for Australia, we find that these hypothetical superannuation tax reforms have positive implications for vertical equity, as indicated by larger relative welfare gains and income improvements experienced by lower income households. The simulation results also show positive long run effects of the reforms on domestic assets as well as reduced pension expenditures.

Ýmrohoroðlu, Ýmrohoroðlu and Joines [1995, A life-cycle analysis of Social Security, Economic Theory, vol. 6, 83-114] show that the optimal replacement ratio of the payas-you-go public pension system in the US economy amounts to 30%. We extend their analysis to a model that 1) replicates the empirical wage heterogeneity, 2) endogenizes the individual's labor supply decision and 3) accounts for contributions-defined pensions of the US social security system. With these more realistic modifications, the optimal replacement ratio is found to amount to approximately 5% and to be insensitive with regard to the aging of the US population; however, lower productivity growth would result in higher optimal pension payments. In addition, the optimal pension scheme is found to be more progressive than the present US pension system.

We show that the standard Value Function Iteration (VFI) algorithm has difficulties approximating models with jump discontinuities in policy functions. We find that VFI fails to accurately identify the location and size of jump discontinuities while other methods - such as the Endogenous Grid Method (EGM) and a Finite Element Method (FEM) - are much better at approximating this class of models. We illustrate differences across methods using a standard plant-level investment model with both variable and fixed capital adjustment costs. We find that the policy functions generated by VFI are quite different from those generated by EGM and FEM. Importantly, these differences are economically significant: for our baseline parameterization VFI generates investment spikes that are 5-8% larger in comparison to the other two methods. The choice between EGM and FEM depends on the context. While EGM is faster than FEM, it is much more difficult to implement. For larger models, the modifications necessary to apply EGM can lead to high code complexity. On the other hand, FEM can accommodate larger models with minimal implementation differences and its high scalability can reduce computation time significantly.

We study the short-, medium-, and long-run implications of stimulating annuity markets in a dynamic general-equilibrium overlapping-generations model. We find that beneficial partial-equilibrium effects of stimulating annuity markets are counteracted by negative general-equilibrium repercussions. Balancing the positive partial-equilibrium and negative general-equilibrium forces we show that there exists some intermediate level of annuitization such that long-run welfare is maximized. Studying the transition to the optimal degree of annuitization shows that currently middle-aged individuals stand to gain most from the stimulation of annuity markets.

We present a simple approach to transform a deterministic numerical model, where several agents simultaneously make decisions, into a stochastic model. This approach, which builds on scenario aggregation, a numerical method developed to solve decision problems under uncertainty, is used to build a large stochastic numerical equilibrium model of the Western European energy markets. We use the stochastic model to analyze the impact of economic and political uncertainty on the Western European energy markets. We demonstrate that the equilibria under uncertainty differ significantly from the deterministic outcomes.

This note demonstrates that optimal tax calculations in overlapping generations models should not be based exclusively on long-run welfare changes. As the latter represent a mix of efficiency and intergenerational redistribution effects, they typically favor policies which redistribute towards future cohorts. Taking the recent study of Conesa et al. (2009) as an example, we explicitly consider short- and long-run welfare effects and isolate the aggregate efficiency consequences of a tax reform. Based on this aggregate efficiency measure, we find a much lower capital income tax rate and a significantly less progressive labor income tax schedule than Conesa et al. (2009) to be optimal. As we demonstrate, the optimality of capital income taxation is explained by the low interest elasticity of precautionary savings compared to that of life-cycle savings.

When Vietnam entered WTO in 2007 it was granted an accession period up to 2014. During this period tariffs would have to fall according to the accession agreement. This paper evaluates this 2007-2014 trade liberalization by building an applied general equilibrium model and calibrating it to the Vietnamese data. The model pays careful attention to the fact that Vietnam has many state-owned enterprises that do not behave in a profit maximizing way. The model simulations show that the WTO imposed tariff reforms will reduce the overall welfare level of the Vietnamese households. Moreover, the biggest loss of income will take place among the poor rural households in Vietnam. We propose other tariff reforms that both raise overall welfare and reduce income inequality.

The present paper develops a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations and endogenous fertility in order to analyze the interaction between public policy and household labor supply and fertility decisions. The model's benchmark equilibrium reflects the current family policy consisting of joint taxation of married couples, monetary transfers and in-kind benefits which reduce the time cost of children. Then we simulate alternative reforms of the tax and the child benefit system and analyze the long-run impact on fertility and female labor supply. Our simulations indicate three central results: First, policies which simply increase the family budget either via higher transfers (direct or in-kind) or via family splitting increase fertility but reduce female employment. Second, increasing tax revenues due to the introduction of individual taxation would increase female employment but reduce fertility. Third, revenue neutral policies such as a reform of the benefit structure or a move towards individual taxation combined with an increase in in-kind benefits may achieve both goals and therefore yield significant welfare gains.

This paper presents the dynamic multi-sector general equilibrium model for the Russian Federation (RusMod) and carbon emission projections for Russia up to 2020. Projection results emphasise the importance of accomplishing strong energy efficiency gains, and their effect on the economy and on emissions of greenhouse gases. However, they also show that emissions can be expected to grow at a much higher rate if the efficiency improvements targeted by the government are not realised or when they stay behind compared to the 40% goal as it was set by president Medvedev. Model simulations also show that the introduction of a carbon price as a policy instrument can have a strong impact on the emissions, which comes at the expense of a decline in economic growth that is of a much more temporary nature.

We study the importance of uncertainty and public finance to the welfare ranking of three environmental policy instruments: pollution taxes, pollution permits and Kyoto-like numerical rules for emissions. The setup is the basic stochastic neoclassical growth model augmented with the assumptions that pollution occurs as a by-product of output produced and environmental quality is treated as a public good. To compare alternative policies, we compute welfare-maximizing values for the second-best policy instruments. We find that, in all cases studied, pollution permits are the worst policy choice, even when their revenues finance public abatement. When the main source of uncertainty is economic, the most efficient recipe is to levy pollution taxes and use the collected tax revenues to finance public abatement. However, when environmental uncertainty is the dominant source of extrinsic uncertainty, numerical rules, being combined with tax-financed public abatement, are better than pollution taxes.

In this paper we conduct a counterfactual analysis and estimate the quantitative importance of demand and supply effects on wage inequality in Germany using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Auerbach-Kotlikoff (1987) type. Specifically, the methodological contribution of our dynamic CGE model refers to the three-level constant elasticity of substitution production function and the endogenous labor supply of three different skill types, which enable us to isolate the impact of capital-skill complementarity (i.e., demand effects) and varying skill-specific labor supply (i.e., supply effects) on the evolution of the skill premia as defined by the 9th to 1st, the 9th to 5th, and the 5th to 1st decile limit of earnings. In short, our simulation results show that the complementarity effect has a particularly strong positive impact on the skill premium of the high-skilled, while the quantity effect counteracts the complementarity effect and exerts an alleviating pressure on the skill premium of the high-skilled. In quantitative terms, the complementarity effect raises the skill premium of the 9th to 1st and the 9th to 5th decile limit of earnings by more than 1.0 and 0.8 percent per year, respectively. By contrast, the quantity effect reduces both above-mentioned skill premia by almost 0.3 and 0.45 percent per year, respectively. Even though the complementarity and the quantity effects work in opposite directions, the complementarity effect has a much stronger impact on the skill premia of the high-skilled compared with the quantity effect.

We study the effect of a declining labor force on the incentives to engage in labor-saving technical change and ask how this effect is influenced by institutional characteristics of the pension scheme. When labor is scarcer it becomes more expensive and innovation investments that increase labor productivity are more profitable. We incorporate this channel in a new dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous economic growth and heterogeneous overlapping generations. We calibrate the model for the US economy. First, we establish that the net effect of a decline in population growth on the growth rate of per-capita magnitudes is positive and quantitatively significant. Second, we find that the pension system matters both for the growth performance and for individual welfare. Third, we show that the assessment of pension reform proposals may be different in an endogenous growth framework as opposed to the standard framework with exogenous growth.

Value function iteration is one of the standard tools for the solution of the Ramsey model. We compare six different ways of value function iteration with regard to speed and precision. We find that value function iteration with cubic spline interpolation between grid points dominates the other methods in most cases. For the initialization of the value function over a fine grid, modified policy function iteration over a coarse grid and subsequent linear interpolation between the grid points provides a very efficient way to reduce computational time.

In the spirit of Harberger, we apply a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and estimate the excess burden stemming from the tax-induced distortion in the allocation of capital across the corporate and the non-corporate sectors in Germany. In doing so, we perform a counterfactual analysis and ask how the allocation of capital across sectors would change compared with a sector-neutral tax system which assures an identical effective tax burden on both sectors. Our estimates suggest that the excess burden per period ranges from 2.0 to 3.6 billion Euros or from about 0.1 to 0.16 per cent of GDP. In present value terms, the excess burden translates to about 104 billion Euros or 4.7 per cent of GDP. In order to identify the impact of the firm's financial behaviour on the size of the emerging excess burden, we perform several sensitivity analyses with regard to debt financing, external equity financing and debt constraints via agency cost.

Empirically, the income share is procyclical for the low-income groups and acyclical for the top 5%. We find that business cycle models should consider overlapping generations and elastic labor supply in order to replicate this finding.

This paper analyses the switch to an ACE or to a CBIT type of tax system starting from the present German tax system. We show that in case an ACE type of reform is financed by an increase in the VAT and not in the profit tax, it might be preferred to a CBIT even in the context of an open economy. Moreover, the required exogenous increase in the profit tax rate cannot ensure revenue neutrality on its own due to the negative general equilibrium effects it triggers on the whole economy. For a CBIT, the exogenous reduction in the tax rates on corporate and non-corporate profits leads to better results than when we allow for an endogenous change in the VAT. The best results arise when the CBIT is accompanied by a provision for immediate write-off and a lower profit tax or when the ACE with no additional capital gains taxation on the household side is financed by an increase in the VAT.

We compare the numerical methods that are most widely applied in the computation of the standard business cycle model with flexible labor. The numerical techniques imply economically insignificant differences with regard to business cycle summary statistics except for the volatility of investment. Furthermore, these results are robust with regard to the choice of the functional form of the utility function and the model's parameterization. In conclusion, the simplest and fastest method, the log-linearization of the model around the steady state, is found to be most convenient and appropriate for the standard business cycle model.

We propose a dynamic general equilibrium model with human capital accumulation to evaluate the economic consequences of compulsory services (such as military draft or social services). Our analysis identifies a so far ignored dynamic cost arising from distortions in time allocation over the life-cycle. We provide conservative estimates for the excess burden that arises when the government relies on forced labor rather than on income taxation to finance public expenditures. Our results suggest that eliminating the draft could produce considerable dynamic gains, both in terms of GDP and lifetime utility.