1. Fossil Energy in the Framework of Sustainable Development: Analysis of Prospects and Development of Forecast Scenarios
- Author
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Alexandra Dmitrievna Buldysko, Valeriia Vladimirovna Starshaia, Daria Evgenievna Batueva, Yuriy Leonidovich Zhukovskiy, Bernard Gil, Saint Petersburg Mining University, Laboratoire Charles Coulomb (L2C), Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), SSQT, and Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
Technology ,Control and Optimization ,020209 energy ,Energy (esotericism) ,Energy Engineering and Power Technology ,factor analysis ,02 engineering and technology ,010501 environmental sciences ,Energy transition ,01 natural sciences ,7. Clean energy ,12. Responsible consumption ,fossil energy ,sustainable energy development ,renewable energy sources ,digital technologies ,energy transition ,analysis of the scenario ,11. Sustainability ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Production (economics) ,Electrical and Electronic Engineering ,Engineering (miscellaneous) ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Consumption (economics) ,Sustainable development ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,business.industry ,Fossil fuel ,Environmental economics ,Renewable energy ,Sustainable energy ,13. Climate action ,[PHYS.COND.CM-GEN]Physics [physics]/Condensed Matter [cond-mat]/Other [cond-mat.other] ,Business ,Energy (miscellaneous) - Abstract
International audience; In the next 20 years, the fossil energy must become a guarantor of the sustainable de- velopment of the energy sector for future generations. Significant threats represent hurdles in this transition. This study identified current global trends in the energy sector and the prospects for the development of energy until 2035. The importance of risk assessment in scenario forecasting based on expert judgments was proven. Three contrasting scenarios, #StayHome, #StayAlone, and #StayEffective, for the development of fossil energy, all based on comprehensive analysis of global risks by expert survey and factor analysis, were developed. It was concluded that fossil energy is mandatory with integration of advanced technologies at every stage of the production of traditional energy and of renewable energy as an integral part of the modern energy sector. Based on the results of the study, nine ambitious programs for the development of sustainable energy are presented. They require the creation and the utilization of a single interactive digital platform adapted to this purpose. It is a passport mandatory for the flexible interaction of energy production, its transmission, and its consumption in the perspective of having a future sustainable, reliable, and secured energy sector.
- Published
- 2021
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