1. The Climate Change-Road Safety-Economy Nexus: A System Dynamics Approach to Understanding Complex Interdependencies
- Author
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Mehdi Alirezaei, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, Omer Tatari, and Nuri Cihat Onat
- Subjects
Information Systems and Management ,policy analysis ,Computer Networks and Communications ,Computer science ,020209 energy ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Climate change ,02 engineering and technology ,010501 environmental sciences ,01 natural sciences ,lcsh:TA168 ,lcsh:Technology (General) ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,media_common ,Causal effect ,System dynamics ,Interdependence ,climate change ,Economy ,Control and Systems Engineering ,lcsh:Systems engineering ,Modeling and Simulation ,Damages ,lcsh:T1-995 ,system dynamics ,road safety ,Nexus (standard) ,Software ,Externality ,Dependency (project management) - Abstract
Road accidents have the highest externality costs to society and to the economy, even when compared to the externality damages associated with air emissions and oil dependency. Road safety is one of the most complicated topics, which involves many interdependencies, and so, a sufficiently thorough analysis of roadway safety will require a novel system-based approach in which the associated feedback relationships and causal effects are given appropriate consideration. The factors affecting accident frequency and severity are highly dependent on economic parameters, environmental factors and weather conditions. In this study, we try to use a system dynamics modeling approach to model the climate change-road safety-economy nexus, thereby investigating the complex interactions among these important areas by tracking how they affect each other over time. For this purpose, five sub-models are developed to model each aspect of the overall nexus and to interact with each other to simulate the overall system. As a result, this comprehensive model can provide a platform for policy makers to test the effectiveness of different policy scenarios to reduce the negative consequences of traffic accidents and improve road safety.
- Published
- 2017
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