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The food self-sufficiency policy has always featured as an unquestionable policy objective for Egypt. This is understandable when one considers both the high population growth and the social and political vulnerability associated with a dependence on food imports and world market food prices such as wheat. Intensive agriculture has led to a growing subsidy burden for the Egyptian government. In addition, the agricultural fields in Egypt are commonly distributed with relatively small sizes parcels that usually reduce the reliability of the agricultural sector, particularly in the delta region, to meet the national food policy. On top of that, climate change, through changing weather patterns and increased temperatures, is affecting agricultural yields and thus farmers’ livelihoods. A water profitability analysis was conducted for three governorates in the Nile Delta in Egypt to establish a baseline and assess the net return per unit of water of the main crops in each of these governorates; this can act as a reference of the water profitability of different crops before they are affected by climate change and other internal and external factors. The analysis was based on extensive in-person surveys in each governorate in addition to workshop discussions with farmers. The study has highlighted the impact of a lack of extension services, which limits farmers’ ability to increase their land and water productivity. Farmers with more access to subsidized production inputs managed to achieve higher levels of water profitability even on smaller lands. Finally, we drew from our findings key policy actions to improve water profitability and land productivity for farmers in the Nile Delta to achieve higher levels of food security. This will help build resilient food production systems that are reliable in the face of climate change and other drivers. In addition, an integrated nexus strategy and plan for the inter- and intra-country is recommended to address the challenges related to food and climate security.

Conducting water resource assessment and forecasting at a basin scale requires effective and accurate simulation of the hydrological process. However, intensive, complex human activities and environmental changes are constraining and challenging the hydrological modeling development and application by complicating the hydrological cycle within its local contexts. Six sub-catchments of the Yellow River basin, the second-largest river in China, situated in a semi-arid climate zone, have been selected for this study, considering hydrological processes under a natural period (before 1970) and under intensive human disturbance (2000&ndash, 2013). The study aims to assess the capacity and performance of the hydrological models in simulating the discharge under a changing environment. Four well-documented and applied hydrological models, i.e., the Xin&rsquo, anjiang (XAJ) model, GR4J model, SIMHYD model, and RCCC-WBM (Water Balance Model developed by Research Center for Climate Change) model, were selected for this assessment. The results show that (1) the annual areal temperature of all sub-catchments presented a significant rising trend, and annual precipitation exhibited insignificant decline trend, (2) as a result of climate change and intensive human activities, the annual runoff series showed a declining trend with abrupt changes mostly occurring in the 1980s with the exception of the Tangnaihai station, (3) the four hydrological models generally performed well for runoff simulation for all sub-catchments under the natural period. In terms of Nash&ndash, Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, the XAJ model worked better in comparison to other hydrological models due to its detailed representations and complicated mechanism in runoff generation and flow-routing scheme, (4) environmental changes have impacted the performance of the four hydrological models under all sub-catchments, in particularly the Pianguan River catchment, which is could be attributed to the various human activities that in turn represent more complexity for the regional hydrological cycle to some extent, and reduce the ability to predict the runoff series, (5) the RCCC-WBM model, well known for its simple structure and principles, is considered to be acceptable for runoff simulation for both natural and human disturbance periods, and is recommended for water resource assessment under changing environments for semi-arid regions.