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Study objective: The Multiple Estimation of Risk Based on the Emergency Department Spanish Score in Patients With Acute Heart Failure (MEESSI-AHF) is a validated clinical decision tool that characterizes risk of mortality in emergency department (ED) acute heart failure patients. The objective of this study is to compare the distribution of risk categories between hospitalized and discharged ED patients with acute heart failure. Methods: We included consecutive acute heart failure patients from 34 Spanish EDs. Patients were retrospectively classified according to MEESSI-AHF risk categories. We calculated the odds of hospitalization (versus direct discharge from the ED) across MEESSI-AHF risk categories. Next, we assessed the following 30-day postdischarge outcomes: ED revisit, hospitalization, death, and their combination. We used Cox hazards models to determine the adjusted association between ED disposition decision and the outcomes among patients who were stratified into low-and increased-risk categories. Results: We included 7,930 patients (80.5 years [SD 10.1 years]; women 54.7%; hospitalized 75.3%). Compared with that for low-risk MEESSI-AHF patients, odds ratios for hospitalization of patients in intermediate-, high-, and very-high-risk categories were 1.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.64 to 2.05), 3.05 (95% CI 2.48 to 3.76), and 3.98 (95% CI 3.13 to 5.05), respectively. However, almost half (47.6%) of all discharged patients were categorized as being at increased risk by MEESSI-AHF, and 19.0% of all the increased-risk patients were discharged from the ED. Among the low-risk MEESSI-AHF patients, the 30-day postdischarge mortality did not differ by ED disposition (hazard ratio [HR] for discharged patients with respect to hospitalized ones 0.65; 95% CI 0.70 to 1.11), nor did it differ in the increased-risk group (HR 0.88; 95% CI 0.63 to 1.23). The discharged low-risk MEESSI-AHF patients had higher risks of 30-day ED revisit and hospitalization (HR 1.86, 95% CI 1.57 to 2.20; and HR 1.92, 95% CI 1.54 to 2.40, respectively) compared with the admitted patients, as did the discharged patients in the increased-risk group (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.39 to 1.89; and HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.68, respectively), with similar results for the combined endpoint. Conclusion: The disposition decisions made in current clinical practice for ED acute heart failure patients calibrate with MEESSI-AHF risk categories, but nearly half of the patients currently discharged from the ED fall into increased-risk MEESSI-AHF categories.

Study objective: We assess the value of the Barthel Index (BI) in predicting 30-day mortality risk among patients with acute heart failure who are attending the emergency department (ED). Methods: We selected 9,098 acute heart failure patients from the Acute Heart Failure in Emergency Departments registry who had BI score available both at baseline and the ED visit. Patients' data were collected from 41 Spanish hospitals during four 1- to 2-month periods between 2009 and 2016. Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models were used to assess the association between 30-day mortality and BI score. c Statistics were used to estimate their prognostic value. Results: The mean baseline BI score was 79.4 (SD 24.6) and the mean ED BI score was 65.3 (SD 29.1). Acute functional decline (>= 5-point decrease between baseline BI and ED BI score) was observed in 5,771 patients (53.4%). Within 30 days of the ED visit, 905 patients (9.9%) died. There was a steep inverse gradient in 30-day mortality risk for baseline BI and ED BI score. For instance, compared with BI score=100, a BI score of 50 to 55 doubled the mortality risk both at baseline and the ED visit. At the ED visit, a BI score of 0 to 5 carried a 5-fold increase in risk after adjustment for other risk predictors. In comparison with baseline BI score, ED BI score consistently provided greater discrimination. Neither baseline BI score nor the change in BI score from baseline to the ED visit added further prognostic value to the ED BI score. Conclusion: Functional status assessed by the BI score at the ED visit is a strong predictor of 30-day mortality in acute heart failure patients, with higher predictive value than baseline BI score and acute functional decline. Routine recording of BI score at the ED visit may help in decisionmaking and health care planning.