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This report was prepared for CAPT Mike Lilienthal, PhD, CPE, and funded by ASN (RDA) CHENG and the Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office (MSCO). This technical report presents the deliverables for calendar year 2007 for the "Educating the Modeling and Simulation Workforce" project performed for the DoD Modeling and Simulation Steering Committee. It includes the results for spirals one and two. Spiral one is an analysis of the educational needs of the program manager, systems engineer, and test and evaluation workforces against a set of educational skill requirements developed by the project team. This is referred to as the 'learning matrix'. Spiral two is a set of module and course matrices, along with delivery options, that meets the educational needs indentified in spiral one. This is referred to as the 'learning architecture'. Supporting materials, such as case studies and a handbook, are included. These documents serve as the design framework for spirals three and four, to be completed in CY2008, and which involve the actual production and testing of the courses in the learning architecture and their longitudinal assessment. This report includes the creative work of a seven university consortium and a group of M&S stake-holders, together comprising over 60 personnel. ASN (RDA) CHENG and the Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office (MSCO). This report was prepared for CAPT Mike Lilienthal, PhD, CPE, and funded by ASN (RDA) CHENG and the Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office (MSCO).

The Naval Systems Engineering Guide (NESG) was written in 2004 by representatives from NAVSEA, NAVFAC, NAVAIR, NAVSUP and MARCORSYSCOM. Since then, three other foundational systems engineering documents have been written or revised the International Standards Organization (ISO) Standard 15288 in 2008, the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) Systems Engineering Handbook in 2011, and The guide to the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge (SEBoK) in 2012. This thesis compares the treatment of one life cycle element, in-service engineering, across all four documents, in order to offer a comparative analysis of the NESG in light of key industry standards and make recommendations for the revision of the NESG. The gap analysis performed in relation to crucial industry documents suggests that future revisions of the NSEG should include substantial discussion of Operations, Maintenance, Service Life Extension and Disposal Processes, as well as identify best practices for each process. http://archive.org/details/benchmarkingnava1094517327 Lieutenant, United States Navy (Retired)

Squadron Officer College (SOC) provides professional military education to captains in the U.S. Air Force. Improved requirements elicitation, work-breakdown structure analysis, and capacity analysis are recommended to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of SOC. Because course length is constrained by other USAF needs, a method for trading requirement satisfaction using stakeholders is recommended to maximize value from the available time. Significant efficiencies are identified that can result in increased student throughput, increased curriculum content, or both. Currently, SOC can graduate 4,060 students yearly and has facilities to handle over 6000 students per year. Increasing the percentage of staff that actively teaches has the greatest effect on throughput; 36% of staff are actively instructing. Administration and organization efficiencies should be explored to increase the percentage of active instructors. Implementing a continuous improvement cycle could increase student learning regardless of throughput. Spiral development could be implemented to update lessons or the entire course. Customer feedback and stakeholder involvement need to be improved; currently, SOC customers, Air Force commanders, do not have a direct and timely way to influence curriculum design. Using different delivery modalities, SOC may find new efficiencies or increase learning effectiveness. SOC should examine combinations of online delivery methods in order to reduce course length or costs. http://archive.org/details/systemengineerin109456827 Captain, United States Air Force

Combat operations are suffering from unnecessarily high fuel demand which degrades capability, exposes support operations to greater risk than necessary, and increases operations and support costs. This thesis describes the current suite of hybrid drivetrain technologies, evaluates their effectiveness in a tactical environment, and suggests an architecture that reduces fuel consumption while maintaining performance against mobility, transportability, survivability, and safety requirements. This thesis includes a comprehensive analysis of nine power sources and three general hybrid architectures against ten performance attributes using multiple criterion decision theory with considerations for selection criteria dependencies and vehicle duty cycles. The rating of selection criteria is not always a direct comparison of component performance parameters. In some cases, capabilities are dependent on the general hybrid architecture and on the form of energy storage in others. In a fully burden cost of fuel context, the capability of hybrid drivetrains to improve fuel economy of vehicles by up to 20% translates to $0.39-$83.54 billion in annual savings across the Army's tactical wheeled vehicle fleet depending on the fuel delivery method. The recommended hybrid drivetrain architecture is a series hybrid with a diesel engine primary power source, flywheel secondary power source, and permanent magnet traction motors. http://archive.org/details/ahybridpproachto109455603 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Naval Air Systems Command's (NAVAIRs) weapons test ranges at China Lake, CA struggle to meet increasing demand. Development programs are bringing more complex and capable weapons to the ranges. The resources of the ranges are being stretched thin and not all requests for testing are accommodated. The purpose of this paper is to seek a solution to increase range throughput within the constraints of the current resources. The effort involved evaluating range usage, identifying obstacles to increased throughput, and evaluating the processes associated with the obstacles. Recommendations for process changes were made and applied to a set of historical data to determine the impact of the processes and compare them with the historical solution. Data from the analysis show that specific changes to current processes have the potential to increase throughput by 9% without the need for additional resources. http://archive.org/details/improvingtestthr109453902 Naval Air Warfare Center author (civilian). Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, questions developed over how quickly the country could respond if a bioterrorism attack was to occur. "Syndromic surveillance" systems are a relatively new concept that is being implemented and used by public health practitioners to attempt to detect a bioterrorism attack earlier than would be possible using conventional biosurveillance methods. The idea behind using syndromic surveillance is to detect a bioterrorist attack by monitoring potential leading indicators of an outbreak such as absenteeism from work or school, over-the-counter drug sales, or emergency room counts. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention's Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) is one syndromic surveillance system that is currently in operation around the United States. This thesis compares the performance of three syndromic surveillance detection algorithms, entitled C1, C2, and C3, that are implemented in EARS, versus the CUSUM applied to model-based prediction errors. The CUSUM performed significantly better than the EARS' methods across all of the scenarios evaluated. These scenarios consisted of various combinations of large and small background disease incidence rates, seasonal cycles from large to small (as well as no cycle), daily effects, and various levels of random daily variation. This results in the recommendation to replace the C1, C2, and C3 methods in existing syndromic surveillance systems with an appropriately implemented CUSUM method. http://archive.org/details/biologicalterror109453373 US Navy (USN) author. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Biological terrorism is a threat to the security and well-being of the United States. It is critical to detect the presence of these attacks in a timely manner, in order to provide sufficient and effective responses to minimize or contain the damage inflicted. Syndromic surveillance is the process of monitoring public health-related data and applying statistical tests to determine the potential presence of a disease outbreak in the observed system. Our research involved a comparative analysis of two multivariate statistical methods, the multivariate CUSUM (MCUSUM) and the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA), both modified to look only for increases in disease incidence. While neither of these methods is currently in use in a biosurveillance system, they are among the most promising multivariate methods for this application. Our analysis was based on a series of simulations using synthetic syndromic surveillance data that mimics various types of background disease incidence and outbreaks. We found that, similar to results for the univariate CUSUM and EWMA, the directionally-sensitive MCUSUM and MEWMA perform very similarly. http://archive.org/details/acomparativenaly109453417 US Navy (USN) authors. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The first part of this thesis aims to identify and analyze what aspects of the MIL-HDBK-217 prediction model are causing the large variation between prediction and field reliability. The key findings of the literature research suggest that the main reason for the inaccuracy in prediction is because of the constant failure rate assumption used in MIL-HDBK-217 is usually not applicable. Secondly, even if the constant failure rate assumption is applicable, the disparity may still exist in the presence of design and quality related problems in new systems. A possible solution is to apply reliability growth testing (RGT) to new systems during the development phase in an attempt to remove these design deficiencies so that the system's reliability will grow and approach the predicted value. In view of the importance of RGT in minimizing the disparity, this thesis provides a detailed application of the AMSAA Extended Reliability Growth Models to the reliability growth analysis of a combat system. It shows how program managers can analyze test data using commercial software to estimate the system demonstrated reliability and the increased in reliability due to delayed fixes. http://archive.org/details/analysisofreliab109451788 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis is the second part of a three-part thesis study that was started by LTC Martin Fair in June 2004. In his initial thesis, LTC Fair built a database by joining information from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. zip codes, and USAR zip code data. LTC Fair also formulated a network flow model and began an initial implementation of the first of many constraints. My thesis will validate the constraint models and develop the set of constraints that another project, by LTC Brau, will need to develop the network flow model. That model will optimize reserve unit readiness in the third and perhaps final part of the study. Since the early 1990's and the demise of the Cold War, the United States Army active and reserve forces have undergone dramatic restructuring. The Active component was reduced in size from 18 active divisions down to today's total of ten-a force cut of approximately 300,000 soldiers. Additionally, the United States Army Reserve forces mission shifted to a predominately Combat Support (CS) and Combat Service Support (CSS) mission. This realignment was an attempt to use the USAR component in a support role as the world situation dictated. Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent declaration of a "War on Terrorism," the United States Army Reserve (and active component) has been called upon to deploy more frequently and for extended periods of time. Maintaining unit readiness and a satisfactory "fill-rate" is probably one of the leading challenges that our reserve forces face. This thesis examines the relationship between unit location and recruiting success. We seek to maximize the fill rate of United States Army Reserve (USAR) units. Our method will correlate the vocational aptitudes of the US population with the Military Occupational Specialties (MOS) of the USAR units. http://archive.org/details/geodemographicna109451906 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis develops an integer linear program called MSAMT (Model to Schedule Army Maneuver Training) to schedule an Army installation's maneuver training. We demonstrate MSAMT using a data set containing 261 platoon-level, 67 company-level and 18 battalion-level units, and 7 major training areas located at Fort Hood, Texas. Using a typical near-term planning horizon from 6 to 8 weeks, MSAMT schedules daily training for a randomly selected set of the stationed units and training requirements. For a 6-week time period and almost 65% (63 platoons 16 companies and 5 battalions) of the units there are 151 platoon-level, 51 company-level and 11 battalion-level required tasks of which MSAMT can schedule 93%. When the subset of units is increased to 80% (75 platoons, 20 companies, 6 battalions), there are 187 platoon-level, 62 company-level and 11 battalion-level tasks of which MSAMT can schedule only 85%. Maintaining the 80% unit level but having an 8 weekperiod increases required training achieved to 94%. Such results can help determine the ability of an Army installation to satisfy training requirements of its stationed units as well as identify a shortage or excess in available training land. It can show the training impact of changing the quantity of units at an installation and thereby aid in base realignment and closure decisions. http://archive.org/details/anintegerlinearp109451566 First Lieutenant, Turkish Army Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The USAF officer accession sources annually produce three thousand non-rated line officers who must be classified into career fields. Under the current system, many career field accession goals are not met. This mismatch occurs primarily because of unreasonable targets set for the various commissioning sources. This thesis presents an optimization-based target allocation tool that mitigates the existing mismatch between long-term manpower needs and near-term accession source outputs. This Java-based application enables users to weight multiple objectives, set priorities for filling various career fields, solve for optimal targets, and then explore results, presented in the form of interactive tables and charts. Within a friendly graphical user interface, users determine practical targets with ease by interactively adjusting the optimality criteria and fill priorities and then reviewing the resulting classifications. These new targets will vastly improve the ability of the USAF to meet accession needs, exploit the unique skills of its officers, and satisfy officer preferences. This means that officer recruiting dollars will be better utilized as long-term manpower needs are better met. Additionally, job performance and retention are likely to improve as more career fields are filled with highly qualified officers and officers are more frequently placed into their desired career fields. http://archive.org/details/allocatingairfor109456270 Second Lieutenant, United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Analysis of U.S. Army Reserve recruiting is conducted across the U.S. Army with data from the Recruit Quota System (REQUEST). A combination of partial manual data entry and a decided lack of tools for large scale data extraction make REQUEST difficult to use for analysis without an extensive knowledge of the system. In this thesis, I develop a process for screening, preparing, and evaluating REQUEST data for subsequent analysis. This process uses data mining software to progressively work through a series of rules that outline data inconsistencies, mark these records for exclusion and later investigation, and generate a "clean" dataset for analysis. I examine enlistments over a four year period with respect to Military Occupational Specialty and training program structure. Data from the Army Training Requirements and Resource System (ATRRS) are used to provide an overview of Initial Entry Training seat quotas and usage, and to confirm and/or update training dates in the REQUEST dataset. The joint examination of enlistments and training seats provides new insights into enlistment patterns. Additional analysis is possible using demographic data provided by the U.S. Army Recruiting Command. I provide summaries of a few key demographic variables for various subsets of the enlistees, and discuss how similar analyses might prove useful for targeting recruiting efforts and incentives more effectively. Good decisions require good data. This thesis is a start in providing a framework for generating quality USAR accession data for analysis. http://archive.org/details/aframeworkforarm109451003 Major, United States Army Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Estimating the failure time of a product with a high degree of confidence is a difficult endeavor. Clearly, if the product is inexpensive and fails quickly, extensive tests can be run to make prediction more accurate. When the item under scrutiny is expensive, not prone to failure, or both, calculating accurate estimates and confidence bounds (CBs) becomes more difficult. Furthermore, many methods currently in use are prone to error, sometimes making a critical part appear more reliable than it actually is. Much of our military uses end-items that fall into this category. The lives of our soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines often depend on accurate reliability estimates for the equipment and weapons they work on every day. This thesis first introduces reliability and the common techniques for measuring it. Secondly, it shows that these estimates are often biased. Next, this bias is quantified using Monte Carlo simulation and corrected through simple tables and equations. The tables and equations can be used to map nominal confidence bounds to actual confidence bounds. Lastly, these results are applied to a Marine Corps program and a test run at a major automotive brake system manufacturer. These examples will illustrate the impact of uncorrected bias and what can be done to correct it. http://archive.org/details/improvingnominal109459402 U.S. Marine Corps (U.S.M.C.) author. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Military commanders determine the appropriate Force Protection measures to protect their units from a wide variety of threats based on their assessment of the enemy threat in the specific situation They currently have no statistical tool from which to base their assessment of the threat, or to recognize changes in the current situation. In Operations Other Than War (OOTW), environments where the enemy is disorganized and incapable of mounting a deception plan, staffs could model hostile events as stochastic events and use statistical methods to detect changes to the process. This thesis developed a statistical tool, based on Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Shewhart Charts, that military leaders can use in OOTW environments to recognize statistically significant changes in the situation. The tool applies current univariate control chart methods, as well as an original nonparametric multivariate control scheme developed in this thesis, to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) stabilization Force (SFOR) incident data. The tool enables commanders to identify isolated and persistent shifts in the means of the data categories or shifts in the correlation of three data categories. By recognizing changes in the current situation, military leaders have a basis from which to change their force protection measures and better protect their unit http://archive.org/details/protectingforcep109457776 Major, United States Army Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Recent technological advances in the design and manufacturing of night vision multispectral sensors now allow spatially registered imagery provided by each of the sensors to be combined within a single fused image for display to an end user. The product is a multispectral false colored rendering of the imaged scene. The use of false color in fused imagery may facilitate object recognition, providing contour information of the objects present in the scene, but incongruently colored fused imagery, may be disruptive of perceptual performance. This study investigated if the use of false color imagery compared to natural color, imagery was helpful or not in object recognition. Subjects' reaction times (RTs) and error rates were measured in a standard naming task. Stimuli consisted of photographs of food objects that had been manipulated in color (natural color, false color, natural grayscale, and false grayscale) and noise (three levels). The results of the experiment showed similar differences in RTs between color images (natural or false) and their grayscale counterparts at different levels of noise, indicating that both color conditions were similarly helpful in object recognition. These results give an indication that false color may be useful in multispectral sensors based on its facilitation of image segmentation with shape degraded images. http://archive.org/details/theroleofcolornd1094526738 N00173-99-WR-00215, DARPA Lieutenant Commander, Spanish Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.