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The Mekong Delta has the world’s third-largest surface area. It plays an indisputable role in the economy and livelihoods of Vietnam and Cambodia, with repercussions at regional and global scales. During recent decades, the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta underwent profound human interventions (construction of dykes and multi-channel networks), which modified the hydrodynamic regime, especially cycles of field submersion. In this study, we first applied a full 2D numerical hydraulic model, TELEMAC-2D, to examine the effects of the complex channel and river networks on the spatial and temporal distribution of the flow in the 40,000 km2 of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Then, two scenarios of relative sea-level rise in 2050 and 2100 were implemented to simulate the future patterns of water fluxes in the delta. The results show that dykes and multi-channel networks would reduce the inundation area by 36% and lessen the peak water level by 15% and the discharge over the floodplains by 24%. Despite this protection, under a relative sea-level rise of 30 cm and 100 cm, the maximum flooded area could occupy about 69% and 85% of the whole delta in 2050 and 2100, respectively.

Studying the spatial and temporal distribution of surface water resources is critical, especially in highly populated areas and in regions under climate change pressure. There is an increasing number of satellite Earth observations that can provide information to monitor surface water at global scale. However, mapping surface waters at local and regional scales is still a challenge for numerous reasons (insufficient spatial resolution, vegetation or cloud opacity, limited time-frequency or time-record, information content of the instrument, lack in global retrieval method, interpretability of results, etc.). In this paper, we use 17 years of the MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer) observations at a 8-day resolution. This satellite dataset is combined with ground expertise to analyse the evolution of surface waters at the Cambodia/Vietnam border in the Upper Mekong Delta. The trends and evolution of surface waters are very significant and contrasted, illustrating the impact of agriculture practices and dykes construction. In most of the study area in Cambodia. surface water areas show a decreasing trend but with a strong inter-annual variability. In specific areas, an increase of the wet surfaces is even observed. Ground expertise and historical knowledge of the development of the territory enable to link the decrease to ongoing excavation of drainage canals and the increase of deforestation and land reclamation, exposing flooded surfaces previously hidden by vegetation cover. By contrast, in Vietnam, the decreasing trend in wet surfaces is very clear and can be explained by the development of dykes dating back to the 1990s with an acceleration in the late 2000s as part of a national strategy of agriculture intensification. This study shows that coupling satellite data with ground-expertise allows to monitor surface waters at mesoscale (2), demonstrating the potential of interdisciplinary approaches for water ressource management and planning.