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Drinking water demand modelling and forecasting is a crucial task for sustainable management and planning of water supply systems. Despite many short-term investigations, the medium-term problem needs better exploration, particularly the analysis and assessment of meteorological data for forecasting drinking water demand. This work proposes to analyse the suitability of ERA5-Land reanalysis data as weather input in water demand modelling. A multivariate deep learning model based on the long short-term memory architecture is used in this study over a prediction horizon ranging from seven days to two months. The performance of the model, fed by ground station data and ERA5-Land data, is compared and analysed. Close-to-operative forecasting is then presented using observed data for training and ERA5-Land dataset for testing. The results highlight the reliability of the proposed architecture fed by ERA5-Land data for different time horizons. In particular, the ERA5-Land shows promising performance as input of the multivariate machine learning forecasting model, although some meteorological biases are present, which can be improved, especially in close-to-operative application with bias correction techniques. The proposed study leads to practical implications in the use of regional climate model outputs to support drinking water forecasting for sustainable and efficient management of water distribution systems.

The digitalisation of water supply systems is essential to support crucial activities, ranging from the hydraulic modelling and calibration of distribution systems to the optimal planning of renewal measures. Digital Twins is the current challenge that aims to join accurate hydraulic models with Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools that employ a faithful digital copy of the original system and smart infrastructures. Thus, the aqueduct Digital Twin model is intended to be the core of future integrated water management systems to support efficient and sustainable management. In this paper, a process of implementing a digital model for a mountain aqueduct with its associated applications is proposed.

This paper studies the convergence properties of an arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian (ALE) Riemann-based SPH algorithm in conjunction with a Weighted Essentially Non-Oscillatory (WENO) high-order spatial reconstruction, in the framework of the DualSPHysics open-source code. A convergence analysis is carried out for Lagrangian and Eulerian simulations and the numerical results demonstrate that, in absence of particle disorder, the overall convergence of the scheme is close to the one guaranteed by the WENO spatial reconstruction. Moreover, an alternative method for the WENO spatial reconstruction is introduced which guarantees a speed-up of 3.5, in comparison with the classical Moving Least-Squares (MLS) approach.

Modelling heat load is a crucial challenge for the proper management of heat production and distribution. Several studies have tackled this issue at building and urban levels, however, the current scale of interest is shifting to the district level due to the new paradigm of the smart system. This study presents a stochastic procedure to model district heat load with a different number of buildings aggregation. The proposed method is based on a superimposition approach by analysing the seasonal component using a linear regression model on the outdoor temperature and the intra-daily component through a bi-parametric distribution of different times of the day. Moreover, an empirical relationship, that estimates the demand variation given the average demand together with a user aggregation coefficient, is proposed. To assess the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, the study of a group of residential users connected to the district heating system of Bozen-Bolzano is carried out. In addition, an application on a three-day prevision shows the suitability of this approach. The final purpose is to provide a flexible tool for district heat load characterisation and prevision based on a sample of time series data and summary information about the buildings belonging to the analysed district.

The evolution of smart water grids leads to new Big Data challenges boosting the development and application of Machine Learning techniques to support efficient and sustainable drinking water management. These powerful techniques rely on hyperparameters making the models’ tuning a tricky and crucial task. We hence propose an insightful analysis of the tuning of Artificial Neural Networks for drinking water demand forecasting. This study focuses on layers and nodes’ hyperparameters fitting of different Neural Network architectures through a grid search method by varying dataset, prediction horizon and set of inputs. In particular, the architectures involved are the Feed Forward Neural Network, the Long Short Term Memory, the Simple Recurrent Neural Network and the Gated Recurrent Unit, while the prediction interval ranges from 1 h to 1 week. To avoid the problem of the Neural Networks tuning stochasticity, we propose the selection of the median model among several repetitions for each hyperparameter’s configurations. The proposed iterative tuning procedure highlights the change of the required number of layers and nodes depending on Neural Network architectures, prediction horizon and dataset. Significant trends and considerations are pointed out to support Neural Network application in drinking water prediction.

Developing data-driven models for bursts detection is currently a demanding challenge for efficient and sustainable management of water supply systems. The main limit in the progress of these models lies in the large amount of accurate data required. The aim is to present a methodology for the generation of reliable data, which are fundamental to train anomaly detection models and set alarms. Thus, the results of the proposed methodology is to provide suitable water consumption data. The presented procedure consists of stochastic modelling of water request and hydraulic pipes bursts simulation to yield suitable synthetic time series of flow rates, for instance, inlet flows of district metered areas and small water supply systems. The water request is obtained through the superimposition of different components, such as the daily, the weekly, and the yearly trends jointly with a random normal distributed component based on the consumption mean and variance, and the number of users aggregation. The resulting request is implemented into the hydraulic model of the distribution system, also embedding background leaks and bursts using a pressure-driven approach with both concentrated and distributed demand schemes. This work seeks to close the gap in the field of synthetic generation of drinking water consumption data, by establishing a proper dedicated methodology that aims to support future water smart grids.

Catchment geology has a major influence on the relative impact of the main seasonal hydrological predictability sources (initial conditions (IC), climate forcing (CF)) on the forecast skill as it defines the system’s persistence. A quantification of its effect, though, on the contribution of the predictability sources to the forecast skill has not been previously investigated. In this work we apply the End Point Blending (EPB) framework to assess the contribution of IC and CF to the seasonal streamflow forecast skill over two catchments that represent the end members of a set of catchments of contrasting geology, hence contrasting hydrological response: a highly-permeable, hence slow-responding catchment and a fast-responding catchment of low permeability. Our results show that the contribution of IC in the slow-responding catchment is higher by up to 44% for forecasts initialized in winter and spring and by up to 21% for forecasts initialized in summer. IC are important for up to 4 months of lead in the slow-responding catchment and 2 months of lead in the flashier catchment. Our analysis highlights the added value of the EPB in comparison to the traditional ESP/revESP approach for identifying the sources of seasonal hydrological predictability, on the basis of catchment geology.

Proper hydraulic simulation models, which are fundamental to analyse a water distribution system, require a calibration procedure. This paper proposes a multi-objective procedure to calibrate water demands and pipe roughness distribution in the context of an ill-posed problem, where the number of measurements is smaller than the number of variables. The proposed methodology consists of a two-steps procedure based on a genetic algorithm. Firstly, several runs of the calibrator are performed and the corresponding pressure and flow-rates values are averaged to overcome the non-uniqueness of the solutions problem. Secondly, the final calibrated model is achieved using the calibrator with the average values of the previous step as the reference condition. Therefore, the procedure enables to obtain physically based hydraulic parameters. Moreover, several hydraulic models are investigated to assess their performance on this optimisation procedure. The considered models are based either on concentrated at nodes or distributed along pipes demands approach, but also either on demand driven or pressure driven approach. Results show the reliability of the final calibrated model in the context of the ill-posed problem. Moreover, it is observed the overall better performance of the pressure driven approach with distributed demand in scarce pressure condition.

Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometry (MODIS) snow cover accuracy has been assessed in the past at different scales, with various approaches and in relation to the many factors influencing the remote observation of snow-covered areas (SCA). However, the challenge of fully characterizing MODIS accuracy over forest sites is still open. In this study, we exploit 5 years of data from the upper river Adige basin at Ponte Adige (Eastern Italian Alps) to condition an enhanced temperature index snowpack model accounting for model parameter uncertainty by using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The simulated SCA is then compared with MODIS retrievals through a range of different statistical metrics to investigate how land use and solar illumination conditions affect such comparison. In particular, the Overall Accuracy index (OA) is used to quantify the agreement between satellite-derived and simulated SCA on a pixel-by-pixel basis. Analyzing the spatial variability either of the median OA and its range shows that illumination conditions over forested canopies represent a major source of uncertainty in MODIS SCA. Exploiting this finding, we identify the minimum level of incoming short-wave radiation for accurate use of MODIS SCA in forest areas.

The selective trapping and erosion of fine particles that occur in a gravel bed river have important consequences for its stream ecology, water quality, and overall sediment budgeting. This is particularly relevant in water bodies that experience periodic alternation between sediment supply-limited conditions and high sediment loads, such as downstream from a dam. While experimental efforts have been spent to investigate fine sediment erosion and transport in gravel bed rivers, a comprehensive overview of the leading processes is hampered by the difficulties in performing flow field measurements below the gravel crest level. In this work, a new two-dimensional, semi-implicit numerical scheme for the solution of the Navier-Stokes equations in the presence of deposited and erodible sediment is presented, and tested against analytical solutions and performing numerical tests. The scheme is mass-conservative, computationally efficient, and allows for a fine discretization of the computational domain. Overall, this makes the model suitable to appreciate small-scales phenomena such as inter-grain circulation cells, thus offering a valid alternative to evaluate the shear stress distribution, on which erosion and transport processes depend, compared to traditional experimental approaches. In this work, we present proof-of-concept of the proposed model, while future research will focus on its extension to a three-dimensional and parallelized version, and on its application to real case studies.

The objective of this study is to transform the arithmetic coefficients of the total sediment transport rate formula of Yang into fuzzy numbers, and thus create a fuzzy relationship that will provide a fuzzy band of in-stream sediment concentration. A very large set of experimental data, in flumes, was used for the fuzzy regression analysis. In a first stage, the arithmetic coefficients of the original equation were recalculated, by means of multiple regression, in an effort to verify the quality of data, by testing the closeness between the original and the calculated coefficients. Subsequently, the fuzzy relationship was built up, utilizing the fuzzy linear regression model of Tanaka. According to Tanaka’s fuzzy regression model, all the data must be included within the produced fuzzy band and the non-linear regression can be concluded to a linear regression problem when auxiliary variables are used. The results were deemed satisfactory for both the classic and fuzzy regression-derived equations. In addition, the linear dependence between the logarithmized total sediment concentration and the logarithmized subtraction of the critical unit stream power from the exerted unit stream power is presented. Ultimately, a fuzzy counterpart of Yang’s stream sediment transport formula is constructed and made available to the readership.

Many efforts have been made in recent decades to formulate strategies for improving the efficiency of water distribution systems (WDS), led by the socio-demographic evolution of modern society and the climate change scenario. The improvement of WDS management is a complex task that can be addressed by providing services to maximize revenues while ensuring that the quality standards required by national and international regulations are upheld. These two objectives can be fulfilled by utilizing optimized techniques for the operational and maintenance strategies of WDS. This paper proposes a methodology for assisting engineers in identifying water leakages in WDS, thus providing an effective procedure for ensuring high level hydraulic network functionality. The proposed approach is based on an inverse analysis of measured flow rates and pressure data, and consists of three steps: The analysis of measurements to select the most suitable period for leakage identification, the localization of the best measurement points based on a correlation analysis, and leakage identification with a hybrid optimization that combines the exploration capability of the differential evolution algorithm with the rapid convergence of particle swarm optimization. The proposed procedure is validated on a reference hydraulic network, known as the Apulian network.

The efficient and effective management of existing water distribution systems (WDSs) faces challenges related to aging of infrastructure, population growth, extended urbanization, climate change impacts and environmental pollution. Therefore, there is a need for integrated solutions that support decision makers to plan today potential interventions, considering the possible consequences and variations in mid- and long-term perspectives. This study is a part of a more comprehensive project, where advanced hydraulic analysis of WDS is coupled with a dynamic resources input-output analysis model. The proposed modeling solution provides a robust tool to support planning of intervention actions and can be applied to optimize the performance of a water supply system considering energy consumption and environmental impacts. This paper presents an application of the proposed method in pipe rehabilitation/replacement planning, maximizing the network mechanical reliability and minimizing the risk of unsupplied water demand and pressure deficit evaluated at nodal level, under given economic constraints.