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The eco-hydrological process related to vegetation on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is special, and the impact of snow cover on the growth of vegetation is unique and important. In this study, we analyzed the multi-year variations in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and snow cover on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from spatial and temporal perspectives and determined the relationship between the changes in the NDVI and snow cover. Results showed that in the last 40 years, the rate of change in the snow depth on the plateau was −0.016 mm/a, and the NDVI changed by 0.0005/a. The correlations (|R| values) between the different factors and the NDVI followed the order of precipitation (0.77) > snow depth (0.76) > temperature (0.67) > solar radiation (0.21). The responses of the NDVI to changes in meteorological elements were synchronous, whereas the opposite was found for the snow cover. The snow cover had more significant impacts on vegetation at higher elevations. The NDVI had a lag of about 2 months from the onset of the snow cover, and heavy snow events had negative impacts on the NDVI for more than 3 years. Our findings will facilitate studies of ecological vulnerability and the predictions of changes in vegetation on the plateau.

The land use and land cover pattern of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is an important basis for the structure and function of the QTP ecological barrier. It is of great significance to simulate the land use pattern and landscape ecological risk of the QTP under future scenarios for the construction of the QTP barrier area and to promote the sustainable use of land resources. The QTP was selected as the study area. Based on the spatial pattern of land use in 2010 and 2020, the PLUS model was used to predict the land use patterns of the QTP in 2030 under the two scenarios of natural development and ecological conservation. The landscape ecological risk index was constructed to evaluate the past, present, and future landscape ecological risk of the QTP. The natural break point method was used to divide the landscape ecological risk index into five levels: lower ecological risk, low ecological risk, medium ecological risk, high ecological risk, and higher ecological risk. The results showed that: (1) Under the natural development scenario, the area of cropland, forestland, grassland, and unused land decreased continuously, while the areas of water and built-up land increased gradually. Under the ecological conservation scenario, the areas of forestland and grassland increased by 130 km2 and 2293 km2, respectively, compared with the natural development scenario. (2) Under the natural development scenario, the overall ecological risk of the QTP increased from 2010 to 2030, which showed that the proportions of lower ecological risk area decreased, while the proportion of medium and high ecological risk area increased. Under the ecological conservation scenario, compared with the natural development scenario, the area of lower, low, and high ecological risk increased by 4044 km2, 2484 km2, and 6401 km2, respectively, while the areas of medium and higher ecological risk decreased by 6333 km2 and 6597 km2, respectively.

Qinghai Province is situated deep in inland China, on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau, and it has unique climate change characteristics. Therefore, understanding the temporal and spatial distributions of water vapor in this region can be of great significance. The present study applied global navigation satellite system (GNSS) technology to retrieve precipitable water vapor (PWV) in Qinghai and analyzed its relationship with rainfall and drought. Firstly, radiosonde (RS) data is used to verify the precision of the surface pressure (P) and temperature (T) from the fifth-generation atmosphere reanalysis data set (ERA5) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), as well as the zenith troposphere delay (ZTD), calculated based on the data from continuously operating reference stations (CORS) in Qinghai. Secondly, a regional atmospheric weighted mean temperature (Tm) (QH-Tm) model was developed for Qinghai based on P, T, and relative humidity, as well as the consideration of the influence of seasonal changes in Tm. Finally, the PWV of each CORS in Qinghai was calculated using the GNSS-derived ZTD and ERA5-derived meteorological data, and its relationship with rainfall and drought was evaluated. The results show that the ERA5-derived P and T have high precision, and their average root mean square (RMS), mean absolute error (MAE) and bias were 1.06/0.85/0.01 hPa and 2.98/2.42/0.03 K, respectively. The RMS, MAE and bias of GNSS-derived ZTD were 13.2 mm, 10.3 mm and −1.8 mm, respectively. The theoretical error for PWV was 1.98 mm; compared with that of RS- and ERA5-derived PWV, the actual error was 2.69 mm and 2.16 mm, respectively. In addition, the changing trend of GNSS-derived PWV was consistent with that of rainfall events, and it closely and negatively correlated with the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Therefore, the PWV retrieved from GNSS data in this study offers high precision and good feasibility for practical applications; thus, it can serve as a crucial tool for investigating water vapor distribution and climate change in Qinghai.

Soil moisture (SM), an important variable in water conversion between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, plays a crucial role in ecological processes and the evolution of terrestrial ecosystems. Analyzing and exploring SM’s processes and influencing factors in different permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) can better serve the regional ecological security, disaster warning, water management, etc. However, the changes and future trends of SM on the QTP in recent decades are uncertain, and the main factors affecting SM are not fully understood. The study used SM observations, the Global Land Evapotranspiration Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) SM products, meteorological and vegetation data, Mann–Kendall test, Theil–Sen estimation, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), and correlation methods to analyze and explore the characteristics and influencing factors of SM change in different permafrost regions of the QTP. The results show that: (1) At the pixel scale, GLEAM SM products can better reflect SM changes in the QTP in the warm season. The seasonal permafrost region is closer to the real SM than the permanent region, with a median correlation coefficient (R) of 0.738, median bias of 0.043 m3 m−3, and median unbiased root mean square errors (ubRMSE) of 0.031 m3 m−3. (2) The average SM in the QTP warm season increased at a rate of 0.573 × 10−3 m3 m−3 yr−1 over the recent 40 years, and the trend accelerated from 2005–2020. In 64.31% of the region, the soil was significantly wetted, mainly distributed in the permafrost region, which showed that the wetting rate in the dry region was faster than in the wet region. However, the wetting trend does not have a long-term continuity and has a pattern of “wetting–drying-wetting” on interannual and decadal levels, especially in the seasonal permafrost region. (3) More than 65% of the SM wetting trend on the QTP is caused by temperature, precipitation, and vegetation. However, there is apparent spatial heterogeneity in the different permafrost regions and vegetation cover conditions, and the three factors have a more substantial explanatory power for SM changes in the seasonal permafrost region. With the global climate change, the synergistic SM–Climate–Vegetation effect on the QTP tends to be more evident in the seasonal permafrost region.

Drought has great negative impacts on crop growth and production. In order to select appropriate drought indices to quantify drought influences on crops to minimize the risk of drought-related crops as much as possible, climate and spring wheat yield-related data from eight sites in the Qinghai Province of China were collected for selecting better drought index between standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI, denoting meteorological drought) and soil moisture deficit index (SMDI, denoting agricultural drought) as well as the key parameters (timescale and month) in denoting drought impacts on spring wheat yields. The spring wheat yields during 1961–2018 were simulated by the DSSAT–CERES–Wheat model. Pearson correlations were used to investigate the relationship between SPEI and SMDI and between spring wheat yields and drought indices at different timescales. The results showed that: (1) SMDI reflected more consistent dry/wet conditions than SPEI when the timescales changed and (2) There were one- and two-month lags in SMDI compared to SPEI (with the higher correlation coefficients values of 0.35–0.68) during May to August and (3) May (the jointing period of spring wheat) and the two-month timescale of SMDI0–10 (with the higher correlation coefficients values of 0.21–0.37) were key parameters denoting drought influences on spring wheat yield and (4) The correlations between the linear slopes of spring wheat yield reduction rate and linear slopes of SMDI0–10 in May at the studied eight sites were considerable between 1961–2018 (r = 0.85). This study provides helpful references for mitigating the drought risk of spring wheat.

Crop yields are threatened by global climate change. Maize has high water requirements, and precipitation fluctuations can impact its yield. In this study, we used the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to simulate maize yields in eight northeastern U.S. states. We used precipitation fluctuations and the coefficient of variation (CV) of yield as indicators to construct a vulnerability curve for the CV of yield and precipitation fluctuations. We then evaluated the vulnerability of maize yields under precipitation fluctuations in the region. We obtained the following results: (1) the fitted vulnerability curves were classified into three categories (positive slope, negative slope, and insignificant fit), of which the first category accounted for about 92.7%, indicating that the CV of maize yield was positively correlated with precipitation fluctuations in most parts of the study area; and (2) the CV of maize yield under 11 precipitation fluctuation scenarios was mapped to express the CV at the spatial level, and the maize yield in Connecticut and Maryland proved to be the most sensitive to precipitation fluctuations. This study provided a theoretical and experimental basis for the prevention of maize yield risk under fluctuating precipitation conditions.

In this paper, we use the extraction method of multi-factors fusion to extract the Highland barley cultivation area on Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The study results indicate that: (1) the method (extracting through multi-factors fusion) is efficient during the extracting process and is highly accurate in extraction results. This extraction scheme allows for not only the spatial heterogeneity of different physical geographic units, but also the impact of multi-factors on crop cultivation; (2) according to our research, the total Highland barley cultivation area on Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is about 2.74 × 105 ha. Based on the statistics, we draw the first distribution map of the Highland barley cultivation area on Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, which upgrades its spatial distribution pattern from administrative unit to patch unit; (3) Highland barley in various divisions has a distinct spatial heterogeneity in elevation. On the whole, the Highland barley on the plateau is planted at an elevation of 2500–4500 m, up to 5200 m. Due to the impact of topography diversity, temperature, moisture, light, arable land and irrigation conditions, its cultivation area at the same elevation varies in different divisions.

The regional and national scales variation and propagation characteristics of different types of droughts are critical for improving drought resilience, while information is limited in China. The objective of this research was to investigate the evolution and propagation characteristics of three types of droughts using standardized indices at multi-timescales in different sub-regions of China. The indices included Standardized Precipitation/Soil Moisture/Runoff Index (SPI/SSI/SRI) using the optimal probability density function, representing meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts based on precipitation, soil water storage, and baseflow-groundwater runoff, respectively. Wavelet analysis was used to reveal their periodical characteristics. Modified Mann-Kendall trend test was used to compare the trend among drought indices. Correlation coefficients between SPI and SSI/SRI were calculated to identify the time-lags of SPI with SSI and SRI. In general, droughts indicated by SPI agreed well with the historical drought events at different sub-regions. The main periods of SSI were closer to SPI than SRI, indicating stronger connections of agricultural drought with meteorological drought. A weaker connection between meteorological and agricultural/hydrological droughts at shorter timescales was observed in northwestern arid and semi-arid regions. The propagation from meteorological to agricultural or hydrological droughts were well denoted by the lagged time (months) from SPI to SSI or SRI at a timescale ranged from 0 (mostly located in south China) to 5 months (mostly located in northeastern China) for 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, or 24-month timescale; this was a new finding for China. The methods of wavelet combining trend test and Pearson coefficient showed meaningful power for revealing the drought propagation characteristics and the obtained results can be a good reference for other regions of the world since this study compared different climate zones from arid to humid conditions. The study provides crucial information and guidance to develop drought management strategies at regional to national scale and their critical time of action.