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Understanding the potential habitat of Meconopsis, their species richness distribution patterns, and their influencing factors are critical for the conservation and rational exploitation of this valuable resource. In this study, we applied the MaxEnt model to predict their potential distribution, mapped the distribution pattern of species richness, and analyzed the variation of species richness along environmental gradients. Finally, we calculated the landscape fragmentation indices between the five subregions. Our results found that: (1) the medium- and high-suitable habitats of Meconopsis were mainly distributed in the central and eastern Himalaya, the Hengduan Mountains, and the southeast edge of the plateau platform, with suitable habitats ranged from 3200 m to 4300 m, whose most important factor is precipitation of the warmest quarter; (2) species richness showed a hump pattern along the environmental gradients except for longitude that showed an increasing trend, mainly concentrated in the south and southeast; and (3) the subregions are in the descending order of species richness: plateau platform, Hengduan Mountains, central, eastern, and western Himalaya; the highest and lowest degree of landscape fragmentation were in the western Himalaya and eastern Himalaya, respectively. Our study provides a theoretical background for the conservation and sustainable exploitation of Meconopsis in the wild.

Oases, as complex geographical landscapes, are strongly influenced by both natural variation and human activities. However, they have degenerated because of unplanned land use and water resource development. The research of oasis changes has mostly discussed single components, but multiple components, especially spatial changes to oasis vegetation, need further strengthening. Land use and NDVI were extracted based on Landsat 5/8 and Mod13A3, respectively, and a transfer matrix was constructed to analyze changes of land use in the Hexi Corridor during 2000–2020. The significant changes in the area of each land use were also quantified. Combined with regional temperature and precipitation, interpolated from meteorological data, the correlations between regional temperature, precipitation, and vegetation coverage were calculated, especially in the quantized areas with significant associations. The results showed that the area of bare land or desert decreased, while the areas of agricultural and residential land increased. The normalized difference NDVI of the studied oases increased at the rate of 0.021 per decade, which was positively related to precipitation (p < 0.05), rather than temperature; of which, farmland and planted grass land were 55.65% and 33.79% in the significantly increased area. In the area of significant positive relation between NDVI and precipitation, the ratio of grassland, farmland, and forest was 79.21%, 12.82%, and 4.06%, respectively. Additionally, changes in oasis vegetation were determined primarily by agricultural activities, which reflected a combination of natural and anthropic influences.

Topographic factors are critical for influencing vegetation distribution patterns, and studying the interactions between them can enhance our understanding of future vegetation dynamics. We used the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (MODIS NDVI) image dataset (2000–2019), combined with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and vegetation type data for trend analysis, and explored NDVI variation and its relationship with topographic factors through an integrated geographically-weighted model in the Three Parallel Rivers Region (TPRR) of southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) in the past 20 years. Our results indicated that there was no significant increase of NDVI in the entire basin between 2000–2019, except for the Lancang River basin. In the year 2004, abrupt changes in NDVI were observed across the entire basin and each sub-basin. During 2000–2019, the mean NDVI value of the whole basin increased initially and then decreased with the increasing elevation. However, it changed marginally with variations in slope and aspect. We observed a distinct spatial heterogeneity in vegetation patterns with elevation, with higher NDVI in the southern regions NDVI than those in the north as a whole. Most of the vegetation cover was concentrated in the slope range of 8~35°, with no significant difference in distribution except flat land. Furthermore, from 2000 to 2019, the vegetation cover in the TPRR showed an improving trend with the changes of various topographic factors, with the largest improvement area (36.10%) in the slightly improved category. The improved region was mainly distributed in the source area of the Jinsha River basin and the southern part of the whole basin. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis showed that elevation was negatively correlated with NDVI trends in most areas, especially in the middle reaches of Nujiang River basin and Jinsha River basin, where the influence of slope and aspect on NDVI change was considerably much smaller than elevation. Our results confirmed the importance of topographic factors on vegetation growth processes and have implications for understanding the sustainable development of mountain ecosystems.

The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) with high altitude and low temperature is one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and has recently experienced continuous warming. The species distribution on the QTP has undergone significant changes especially an upward shift with global warming in the past decades. In this study, two dominant trees (Picea crassifolia Kom and Sabina przewalskii Kom) and one dominant shrub (Potentilla parvifolia Fisch) were selected and their potential distributions using the MaxEnt model during three periods (current, the 2050s and the 2070s) were predicted. The predictions were based on four shared socio-economic pathway (SSPs) scenarios, namely, SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0, SSP8.5. The predicted current potential distribution of three species was basically located in the northeastern of QTP, and the distribution of three species was most impacted by aspect, elevation, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, precipitation of driest month, Subsoil CEC (clay), Subsoil bulk density and Subsoil CEC (soil). There were significant differences in the potential distribution of three species under four climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s including expanding, shifting, and shrinking. The total suitable habitat for Picea crassifolia shrank under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and enlarged under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. On the contrary, the total suitable habitat for Sabina przewalskii enlarged under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and shrank under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The total suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia continued to increase with SSP2.6 to SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The average elevation in potentially suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia all increased except under SSP8.5 in the 2050s. Our study provides an important reference for the conservation of Picea crassifolia, Sabina przewalskii, Potentilla parvifolia and other dominant plant species on the QTP under future climate change.