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Savannas play a key role in estimating emissions. Climate change has impacted the Cerrado savanna carbon balance. We used the burned area product and long-term field inventories on post-fire vegetation regrowth to estimate the impact of the fire on greenhouse gas emissions and net carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the Cerrado savanna between 1985 and 2020. We estimated the immediate emissions from fires, CO2 emissions by plant mortality, and CO2 removal from vegetation regrowth. The burned area was 29,433 km2; savanna fires emitted approximately 2,227,964 Gg of CO2, 85,057 Gg of CO, 3010 Gg of CH4, 5,103 Gg of NOx, and 275 Gg of N2O. We simulated vegetation regrowth according to three fire regime scenarios: extreme (high fire frequency and short fire interval), intermediate (medium fire frequency and medium fire interval), and moderate (low fire frequency and long fire interval). Under the extreme and intermediate scenarios, the vegetation biomass decreased by 2.0 and 0.4% (ton/ha-year), while the biomass increased by 2.1% under a moderate scenario. We converted this biomass into CO2 and showed that the vegetation regrowth removed 63.5% of the total CO2 emitted (2,355,426 Gg), indicating that the Cerrado savanna has been a source of CO2 to the atmosphere.

The tropical savanna in Brazil known as the Cerrado covers circa 23% of the Brazilian territory, but only 3% of this area is protected. High rates of deforestation and degradation in the woodland and forest areas have made the Cerrado the second-largest source of carbon emissions in Brazil. However, data on these emissions are highly uncertain because of the spatial and temporal variability of the aboveground biomass (AGB) in this biome. Remote-sensing data combined with local vegetation inventories provide the means to quantify the AGB at large scales. Here, we quantify the spatial distribution of woody AGB in the Rio Vermelho watershed, located in the centre of the Cerrado, at a high spatial resolution of 30 metres, with a random forest (RF) machine-learning approach. We produced the first high-resolution map of the AGB for a region in the Brazilian Cerrado using a combination of vegetation inventory plots, airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data, and multispectral and radar satellite images (Landsat 8 and ALOS-2/PALSAR-2). A combination of random forest (RF) models and jackknife analyses enabled us to select the best remote-sensing variables to quantify the AGB on a large scale. Overall, the relationship between the ground data from vegetation inventories and remote-sensing variables was strong (R2 = 0.89), with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 7.58 Mg ha−1 and a bias of 0.43 Mg ha−1.

Widespread in the subtropics and tropics of the Southern Hemisphere, savannas are highly heterogeneous and seasonal natural vegetation types, which makes change detection (natural vs. anthropogenic) a challenging task. The Brazilian Cerrado represents the largest savanna in South America, and the most threatened biome in Brazil owing to agricultural expansion. To assess the native Cerrado vegetation (NV) areas most susceptible to natural and anthropogenic change over time, we classified 33 years (1985−2017) of Landsat imagery available in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. The classification strategy used combined empirical and statistical decision trees to generate reference maps for machine learning classification and a novel annual dataset of the predominant Cerrado NV types (forest, savanna, and grassland). We obtained annual NV maps with an average overall accuracy ranging from 87% (at level 1 NV classification) to 71% over the time series, distinguishing the three main NV types. This time series was then used to generate probability maps for each NV class. The native vegetation in the Cerrado biome declined at an average rate of 0.5% per year (748,687 ha yr−1), mostly affecting forests and savannas. From 1985 to 2017, 24.7 million hectares of NV were lost, and now only 55% of the NV original distribution remains. Of the remnant NV in 2017 (112.6 million hectares), 65% has been stable over the years, while 12% changed among NV types, and 23% was converted to other land uses but is now in some level of secondary NV. Our results were fundamental in indicating areas with higher rates of change in a long time series in the Brazilian Cerrado and to highlight the challenges of mapping distinct NV types in a highly seasonal and heterogeneous savanna biome.