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Introduction: Incident heart failure (HF), ischemic stroke and systemic embolism (IS/SE), and major bleeding related to anticoagulation therapy are still the most frequent events occurring in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The aim of this study was to assess the 3-year incidence, predictors, and related mortality of IS/SE, major bleeding, and HF in a large cohort of AF outpatients. Methods and results: We studied 4973 outpatients with prevalent AF included in the CARDIONOR registry. The mean age was 72.9 ± 11.2 years, 24.1% had diabetes mellitus and 78.9% had anticoagulant therapy at baseline. The mean CHA2DS2Vasc score was 3.4 ± 1.7. After a median follow-up of 3.2 years (IQR: 2.8 to 3.5), incident HF, IS/SE and major bleeding occurred in 10.5%, 3.3% and 2.1% of patients, respectively. When analyzed as time-dependent variables, IS/SE, major bleeding and hospitalization for decompensated HF were all strongly associated with mortality. The independent predictors of incident HF were age, women, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease and a previous history of HF. A sensitivity analysis in patients without history of HF at inclusion revealed that incident HF remained the most frequent adverse event, occurring in 5.3% of patients, compared to IS/SE (1.7%) and major bleeding (2.5%). Conclusion: HF is a common residual cardiovascular adverse event occurring in AF outpatients and is associated with a very high mortality. Since modifiable risk factors are associated with incident HF, upstream intensive management of these risk factors would be of interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The risk, correlates, and consequences of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with chronic coronary artery disease (CAD) are largely unknown. Methods and results: We analyzed incident AF during a 3-year follow-up in 5031 CAD outpatients included in the prospective multicenter CARDIONOR registry and with no history of AF at baseline. Incident AF occurred in 266 patients (3-year cumulative incidence: 4.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.1 to 5.3)). Incident AF was diagnosed during cardiology outpatient visits in 177 (66.5%) patients, 87 of whom were asymptomatic. Of note, 46 (17.3%) patients were diagnosed at time of hospitalization for heart failure, and a few patients (n = 5) at the time of ischemic stroke. Five variables were independently associated with incident AF: older age (p < 0.0001), heart failure (p = 0.003), lower left ventricle ejection fraction (p = 0.008), history of hypertension (p = 0.010), and diabetes mellitus (p = 0.033). Anticoagulant therapy was used in 245 (92%) patients and was associated with an antiplatelet drug in half (n = 122). Incident AF was a powerful predictor of all-cause (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.04; 95% CI: 1.47 to 2.83; p < 0.0001) and cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.88; 95% CI: 1.88 to 4.43; p < 0.0001). Conclusions: In CAD outpatients, real-life incident AF occurs at a stable rate of 1.6% annually and is frequently diagnosed in asymptomatic patients during cardiology outpatient visits. Anticoagulation is used in most cases, often combined with antiplatelet therapy. Incident AF is associated with increased mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]