Search

Droughts are caused either by a deficiency in precipitation compared to normal levels or by excessive evapotranspiration exceeding long-term averages. Therefore, assessing future drought prevalence based on projected climatic variables is essential for effective drought preparedness. In this study, an ensemble of three Regional Climate Models (REMO2009, RCA4, and CCLM4-8-17) was used for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), covering two future time periods (2025–2069 and 2070–2100). The quantile distribution mapping technique was employed to bias-correct the RCMs. The ensemble of RCMs projected an increase in rainfall, ranging from 40% to 85% under both RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5. Both RCPs indicated an increase in daily average temperatures. RCP 4.5 projects an increase in average daily temperature by 1% between 2025 and 2069 and 6.5% between 2070 and 2100, while under RCP 8.5, temperatures are expected to rise by 3.7% between 2025 and 2069 and 12.7% between 2070 and 2100. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to translate these projected climatic anomalies into future drought prevalence. The results suggest that RCP 4.5 forecasts an 8% increase in drought prevalence, while RCP 8.5 projects an 11% increase in drought frequency, with a greater rise in moderate and severe droughts and a decrease in extreme drought occurrences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Departures from historical wildfire regimes due to climate change have significant implications for the structure and composition of forests, as well as for fire management and operations in the Alberta region of Canada. This study analyzed the relationship between climate and wildfire and used a random forest algorithm to predict future wildfire frequencies in Alberta, Canada. Key factors driving wildfires were identified as vapor pressure deficit (VPD), sea surface temperature (SST), maximum temperature (Tmax), and the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI). Projections indicate an increase in wildfire frequencies from 918 per year during 1970–1999 to 1151 per year during 2040–2069 under a moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario (RCP 4.5) and to 1258 per year under a high GHG emission scenario (RCP 8.5). By 2070–2099, wildfire frequencies are projected to increase to 1199 per year under RCP 4.5 and to 1555 per year under RCP 8.5. The peak number of wildfires is expected to shift from May to July. These findings suggest that projected GHG emissions will substantially increase wildfire danger in Alberta by 2099, posing increasing challenges for fire suppression efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adverse impacts of climate change are becoming more frequent and severe worldwide, and Sri Lanka has been identified as one of the most severely affected countries. Hence, it is vital to understand the plausible climate-change-driven impacts on water resources to ensure water security and socio-economic well-being. This study presents novel assessments on low-flow dynamics along the lower Kalu River Basin, Sri Lanka, and water availability during the dry spells of the 2030–2060 period. Bias-corrected daily precipitation projections of a high resolution (25 km × 25 km) NCC-NORESM1-M regional climate model is used here to force a calibrated HEC-HMS hydrological model to project catchment discharge during the future period considered under the two end-member Representative Concentration Pathways (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Our results show that the study area (i.e., Kuda Ganga sub-basin) may become warmer (in non-monsoonal periods) and wetter (in monsoon season) under both scenarios during the near future (2030–2040) when compared to the baseline period (1976–2005) considered. Consequently, the streamflow may reduce, making it the decade with the largest water deficit within the time horizon. The subsequent deficit volume assessment for the 2031–2040 period shows a probable water shortage (~5 million m3) under the RCP 2.6 scenario, which may last for ~47 days with an average daily intensity of 105,000 m3. Our results highlight the need of incorporating climate-change-driven impacts in water resources management plans to ensure water security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adverse weather conditions, once rare anomalies, are now becoming increasingly commonplace, causing heavy losses to crops and livestock. One of the most immediate and far-reaching concerns is the potential impact on agricultural productivity and global food security. Although studies combining crop models and future climate data have been previously carried out, such research work in Central Asia is limited in the international literature. The current research aims to harness the predictive capabilities of the CRAFT (CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox) to predict and comprehend the ramifications stemming from three distinct RCPs, 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, on wheat yield. As a result, the arid steppe zone was found to be the most sensitive to an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, since the yield difference between RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 accounted for almost 110 kg/ha (16.4%) and for 77.1 kg/ha (10.4%) between RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, followed by the small hilly zone with an average loss of 90.1 and 58.5 kg/ha for RCPs 2.6–8.5 and RCPs 4.5–8.5, respectively. The research findings indicated the loss of more than 10% of wheat in the arid steppe zone, 7.6% in the small hilly zone, 7.5% in the forest steppe zone, and 6% in the colo steppe zone due to climate change if the modeled RCP 8.5 scenario occurs without any technological modernization and genetic modification. The average wheat yield failure in the North Kazakhstan region accounted for 25.2, 59.5, and 84.7 kg/ha for RCPs 2.6–4.5, 4.5–8.5, and 2.6–8.5, respectively, which could lead to food disasters at a regional scale. Overall, the CRAFT using the DSSAT crop modeling system, combined with the climate predictions, showed great potential in assessing climate change effects on wheat yield under different climate scenarios in the North Kazakhstan region. We believe that the results obtained will be helpful during the development and zoning of modified, drought-resistant wheat varieties and the cultivation of new crops in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to improve the resource utilization of recycled concrete powder (RCP), this study aimed to investigate the effect of RCP admixture, curing age, and alkali excitation on the strength of RCP concrete. In addition, the pore structure characteristics of RCP concrete were analyzed in combination with low-field NMR. Furthermore, a gray predictive GM (1, 4) model was established to predict the mechanical properties of the concrete based on the pore structure parameters, especially the compressive and flexural tensile strengths. The results of the study indicate that the mechanical properties, namely compressive strength and flexural strength, of RCP concrete exhibit an initial increase followed by a subsequent decrease with increasing RCP content at 3 d, 7 d, and 28 d curing ages. In particular, the concrete exhibits the highest mechanical properties when the RCP content reaches 10%. As the curing age increases, the RCP gradually achieves full hydration, resulting in further refinement of the concrete pores and a denser structure, which subsequently improves the mechanical properties. In addition, the strength growth rate of alkali-excited recycled concrete (ARC) showed a continuous increase, indicating that alkali excitation increasingly improved the mechanical properties of the concrete. Furthermore, the study accurately predicted the mechanical properties of RCP concrete by using GM (1, 4) prediction models for its compressive strength and flexural tensile strength using pore characteristic parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demand for space cooling systems is growing worldwide. The main reasons are socioeconomic developments such as the growing world population and the rise of economic wealth, especially in developing countries. These developments run simultaneously with global warming effects, increasing the need for cooling. This study introduces the development of the Cooling Demand Market Index (CDMI), which indicates the demand for cooling appliances worldwide at a spatial resolution of 1 km. It is based on population density, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)/capita and Cooling Degree Days (CDD) per climate zone. The CDMI is calculated for 2020 and 2050 in four different future scenarios in accordance with the Spatial Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Further, the Solar Thermal Cooling Index (STCI) was developed to spatially estimate the worldwide potential to use solar thermal cooling systems based on solar availability and limitations due to maximum heat rejection temperature. Results of the CDMI show that the economic demand for cooling solutions is increasing, especially in developing countries, and that India will be by far the largest market by 2050. Countries such as Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo show the strongest national increases in CDMI. The STCI indicates that ammonia absorption chillers and zeolite adsorption chillers can serve the vast majority of the market thanks to their capability to run at high condenser temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of climate patterns through the end of the 21st century indicate varying impacts across the U.S. However, a common thread of these projections calls for increasing atmospheric temperatures in every region, some more pronounced than others. The significance of these projections for corn and soybean production cannot be overestimated. This study contributes to our understanding of climate change impacts on production and farm revenues by projecting their impacts on corn and soybean yields in Buchanan County, Iowa, a county in the center of the Corn Belt. Projections indicate that as atmospheric temperatures rise and precipitation levels vary markedly, the result is a significant decline in corn and soybean yields, the latter to a lesser extent, as compared to long-term yield trends. Depending upon the climate change scenario that will materialize, corn yields are projected to decline by up to 29%, while soybean yields are projected to decline by up to 24% from their normal upward trends by the year 2100. Due to the long-term upward trends in yields, corn and soybean yields will increase in absolute terms by the end of the century. Depending upon the climate change scenario, actual corn and soybean yields will increase by 30 to 57% and 30 to 66%, respectively, by the end of the 21st century, significantly less than they would have in the absence of these climate projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on streamflow characteristics of five tropical catchments located in Costa Rica. An ensemble of five General Circulation Models (GCMs), namely HadGEM2-ES, CanESM2, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR dynamically downscaled by two Regional Climate Models (RCMs), specifically HadRM3P and RCA4, was selected to provide an overview of the impacts of different climate change scenarios under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 using the 1961–1990 baseline period. The GR2M hydrological model was used to reproduce the historical monthly surface runoff patterns of each catchment. Following calibration and validation of the GRM2 model, the projected impact of climate change on streamflow was simulated for a near-future (2011–2040), mid-future (2041–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) for each catchment using the bias-corrected GCM-RCM multimodel ensemble-mean (MEM). Results anticipate wetter conditions for all catchments in the near-future and mid-future periods under RCPs 2.6 and 4.5, whereas dryer conditions are expected for the far-future period under RCP 8.5. Projected temperature trends indicate consistently warmer conditions with increasing radiative forcing and future periods. Streamflow changes across all catchments however are dominated by variations in projected precipitation. Wetter conditions for the near-future and mid-future horizons under RCPs 2.6 and 4.5 would result in higher runoff volumes, particularly during the late wet season (LWS). Conversely, dryer conditions for the far-future period under RCP8.5 would result in considerably lower runoff volumes during the early wet season (EWS) and the Mid-Summer Drought (MSD). In consequence, projected seasonal changes on streamflow across all catchments may result in more frequent flooding, droughts, and water supply shortage compared to historical hydrological regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the perspective of teaching and researching, we developed a manipulator digital twin experiment platform (named the remote experience platform, REP) based on a rapid control prototype (RCP). The platform consisted of a controlled target, a real-time controller, rapid prototype configuration software, and supervisory control software. The controlled target was a 6-DOF manipulator, divided into a physical entity and its digital twin. The 3D model and mathematical model of the manipulator were constructed as an experimental entity in a digital space. The whole system provided flexible and intuitive experimental scenes without the restraints of time and place. Based on RCP technology, students can design various complex control strategies using simulation tools such as Matlab/Simulink, then convert the graphical model into executable code to be performed in target hardware. The framework and development methods of the proposed system are elaborated in this paper. An example is demonstrated, including invocation of algorithms, one-click code generation and compilation, real-time verification and online parameter adjustment, and more. The feasibility and practicability of the system are verified through the PID control experiment of the manipulator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solutions that aim to reduce water production in heavy oil wells have led to the design of devices known as rate-controlled production (RCP) autonomous inflow-control device (AICD) valves, which are placed in well completions and autonomously open with the oil inflow and close with water by choking the flow. These devices, which are based on Bernoulli's principle, use a levitating disk that chokes the flow of the phase with the lowest flow resistance. This study proposes a numerical model based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technology to understand these devices' operations and propose better designs without experimentation. The numerical model was based on dynamic fluid–body interaction (DFBI) and volume of fluid (VOF) models. The model was found to respond as expected depending on the physical properties of the fluids involved in heavy oil production. Finally, some limitations were found in the numerical study that can be improved in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assessed the extremes of wave conditions for past (1979–2005) and future (2026–2045 and 2081–2100) time slices in the Gulf of Guinea (GoG). The ensemble produced from eight General Circulation Models under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) was subjected to linear regression analysis and Mann–Kendal test for their trends and significance, respectively. Results showed an increase in the extreme of significant wave height (Hs) and mean wave period (Tm) between 1979–2005, 2026–2045, and 2081–2100 with few exceptions. The average values of annual and seasonal Hs and Tm range from 1.26–1.62 m and 10.37 s–10.86 s, respectively, for 1979–2005. These Hs values are projected to increase by 0.1 m (0.05 m) to 1.72 m (1.67 m) and the Tm will increase by 0.29 s (0.24 s) to 11.15 s (11.10 s) by the end of the century (mid-century) time slices, respectively. The mean wave direction (Dm) (201.89°–206.27°) showed an anticlockwise shift (−29.2 × 10−3 degrees per year) for 1979–2005 which is projected to become more southwesterly with an increase up to 2.2° (0.5°) by end (mid) century in 2100 (2045), respectively. Future work will be on the impacts of changing wave on longshore sediment transport along the GoG. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Airport runway pavements often undergo the direct impact of aircraft landings. For the purposes of designing the structure, it is of great importance to know about the dynamic response of the pavement and its behavior under impact loading. However, the dynamics and failure mechanisms of reinforced recycled aggregate concrete pavements subjected to impact loading are seldom explored in the literature. For this purpose, four reinforced recycled aggregate concrete pavements with different thickness and ratios of reinforcement, and one reinforced normal concrete pavement, were manufactured and tested under impact loading using the drop-weight impact frame system. The impact force characteristics, crack patterns, deformation responses, and strain developments of reinforced concrete pavements subjected to impact loading were evaluated and compared. The above-mentioned study revealed that with an increase in the reinforcement ratio, both the deformation and the steel strain were reduced. Increasing the thickness would reduce the degree of damage and the impact force of reinforced concrete pavement (RCP) but increase the deformation. The results show that under the same compressive strength, the dynamic performance of the reinforced recycled aggregate concrete pavement was worse than that of the reinforced normal concrete pavement because of its lower elastic modulus and weaker interfacial transition zone. The dynamic performance of reinforced recycled aggregate concrete pavement could be improved by increasing the thickness and reinforcement ratio. The use of recycled aggregate concrete (RAC) in RCP is a technically feasible application of the material within the scope of this experimental study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change, with its reaching implications, has become a popular topic in recent years. Among the many aspects of climate change, one of the most pressing concerns has been identified as the impact on the terrestrial water cycle, which has a direct impact on human settlement and ecosystems. The paper begins by reviewing previous studies, and then identifies their flaws and future research directions. The effects of climate change on surface water resources in the Dhidhessa Sub-basin, Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, were studied as practices. For future potential climate change, the results of global climate models (GCMs) and high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) from multiple climate models were combined with data from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from the CCAFS Data Distribution Center web page. To evaluate the impacts on water resources, various distributed hydrologic models based on local underlying surfaces were developed. The future potential climate change of the Dhidhessa Sub-basin Province was evaluated by integrating RCP outputs, whereas the climate change of the Dhidhessa River was directly derived from the results of different RCP. Dhidhessa stream flow will decrease in the future compared to the baseline era. The predictions of future discharge (stream flow) were based on climate scenarios data from 1991 to 2020 and for the future with two time windows, 2044 (2030–2059) and 2084 (2070–2099), on a monthly time-step after bias correction to both precipitation and temperature in the future climate described in the under each RCP. According to model results, the quantity of surface water resources in the Dhidhessa river region will decrease over the next 100 years, the percent decrease in mean annual stream flow by 10%, in 2044, and 6.3% in 2084, respectively, making the impact of temperature increase on runoff greater than that of precipitation. The distribution of runoff would be more even across years but more uneven across years in the long-term window, implying a higher possibility of drought and flooding. In general, this study discovered that any effect on this river that results in a decrease in flow will have a direct impact on the area's ongoing water resource development and socioeconomic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban flooding is considered one of the hazardous disasters in metropolitan areas, especially for those located in arid regions. Due to the associated risks of climate change in increasing the frequency of extreme rainfall events, climate-induced migration to urban areas leads to the intensification of urban settlements in arid regions as well as an increase in urban expansion towards arid land outskirts. This not only stresses the available infrastructure but also produces substantial social instability due to unplanned urban growth. Therefore, this study sheds light on the main factors that are increasing the flood risk, through examining the consequences of rapid urban growth and the performance of drainage networks on urban flood volumes and comparing it with the effects induced by climate change on the surface runoff. The effect of urbanization is assessed through land use maps showing the historical urbanization conditions for the past 30 years, while considering the role of urban planning and its effect on exacerbating surface runoff. Six climate projection scenarios adopted from three Global Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (4.5 and 8.5) during the period (2006–2020) were compared to ground observed rainfall data to identify which climate scenario we are likely following and then evaluate its effects on the current rainfall trends up to the year 2050. The significance of the drainage design in the mitigation or increase of surface runoff is evaluated through capacity-load balance during regular and extreme storms. It is found that using impervious surfaces coupled with poor planning causing the blockage of natural flood plains led to an increase in the total runoff of about 180%, which is three times more than the effect induced by climate change for the same analysis period. Climate change decreased the intensities of 2- and 5-year rainfall events by 6% while increasing the intensities of extreme events corresponds to 100-year by 17%. Finally, the urban drainage had a distinguished role in increasing surface runoff, as 70% of the network performed poorly during the smallest rainfall event of 2-year return period. The study emphasizes the urgency to re-evaluate the existing and future urban drainage design approach: although urban development and climate change have inevitable effects on the increase in urban flood volumes, it could be alleviated through improved infrastructures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rate-controlled production (RCP) inflow control devices (ICDs) are valves placed in the lower completion of oil and gas wells, capable of autonomously controlling the reservoir inflow. This completion technology self-regulates the inflow of undesired phases, such as water, by choking the flow after the breakthrough event, thus improving the recovery factor and reducing water production. In this context, this article presents a numerical study that describes the working principle of RCP valves based on a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis. The numerical models are based on the conservation equations of fluid flow, the volume of fluid (VOF) multiphase flow model, and the dynamic fluid body interaction (DFBI) model to simulate the valve's movement caused by its interaction with the flow. This study demonstrates the possibility of studying RCP valves alone or coupled with the whole completion assembly and reservoir rock. The difference in the valve efficiency after considering the entire completion assembly and reservoir rock is 19 % less compared with the stand-alone analysis of the valve. Finally, this study provides a deep understanding of the fluid dynamics near the wellbore, the completion assembly, and the RCP valves, along with its chocking, which could be helpful to future researchers interested in improving multiphase flow efficiency in subsurface processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this work is to compare [68Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 and [18F]PSMA-1007 PET/CT as imaging agents in patients with prostate cancer (PCa). Comparisons were made by evaluating times and costs of the radiolabeling process, imaging features including pharmacokinetics, and impact on patient management. The analysis of advantages and drawbacks of both radioligands might help to make a better choice based on firm data. For [68Ga]Ga-PSMA-11, the radiochemical yield (RCY) using a low starting activity (L, average activity of 596.55 ± 37.97 MBq) was of 80.98 ± 0.05%, while using a high one (H, average activity of 1436.27 ± 68.68 MBq), the RCY was 71.48 ± 0.04%. Thus, increased starting activities of [68Ga]-chloride negatively influenced the RCY. A similar scenario occurred for [18F]PSMA-1007. The rate of detection of PCa lesions by Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography (PET/CT) was similar for both radioligands, while their distribution in normal organs significantly differed. Furthermore, similar patterns of biodistribution were found among [18F]PSMA-1007, [68Ga]Ga-PSMA-11, and [177Lu]Lu-PSMA-617, the most used agent for RLT. Moreover, the analysis of economical aspects for each single batch of production corrected for the number of allowed PET/CT examinations suggested major advantages of [18F]PSMA-1007 compared with [68Ga]Ga-PSMA-11. Data from this study should support the proper choice in the selection of the PSMA PET radioligand to use on the basis of the cases to study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Featured Application: The present study shows the importance of determining the climate change scenario from Representative Concentration Pathways for the study of impacts on ecosystems and social systems (ecosocial systems). In addition, the study investigates the influence of climate drivers and climate change and brings these to bear on the local and regional impacts in the study region. This study analyzes the mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and precipitation trends in southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, Central America and the Caribbean regions. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) TS 4.01, with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°, was the database used in this research. The trends of the four selected climate variables cover the period from 1960 to 2016. The results obtained show a clear and consistent warming trend, at a rate of about 0.01 °C/year for the entire study region. These results are consistent with some previous studies and the IPCC reports. While the trends of precipitation anomalies are slightly positive (~0.1 mm/year) for southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula and almost the entire Caribbean, for Central America (CA) the trends are negative. The study also presents the correlation between temperatures and precipitation versus El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) drivers, indicating global warming and frequency signals from the climate drivers. In terms of the near future (2015–2039), three Representative Concentration Pathways (RPC) show the same trend of temperature increase as the historical record. The RCP 6.0 has trends similar to the historical records for CA and southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, while the Caribbean corresponds to RCP 4.5. In terms of the far-future (2075–2099), RCP 6.0 is more ad-hoc for southeastern Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, and RCP 8.5 corresponds to Central America. These results could help to focus actions and measures against the impacts of climate change in the entire study region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of forests to drought, it is necessary to estimate specific water balances in sites and to estimate their development with climate change scenarios. We quantified the water balance of seven forest monitoring sites in northeast Germany for the historical time period 1961–2019, and for climate change projections for the time period 2010–2100. We used the LWF-BROOK90 hydrological model forced with historical data, and bias-adjusted data from two models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) downscaled with regional climate models under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. Site-specific monitoring data were used to give a realistic model input and to calibrate and validate the model. The results revealed significant trends (evapotranspiration, dry days (actual/potential transpiration < 0.7)) toward drier conditions within the historical time period and demonstrate the extreme conditions of 2018 and 2019. Under RCP8.5, both models simulate an increase in evapotranspiration and dry days. The response of precipitation to climate change is ambiguous, with increasing precipitation with one model. Under RCP2.6, both models do not reveal an increase in drought in 2071–2100 compared to 1990–2019. The current temperature increase fits RCP8.5 simulations, suggesting that this scenario is more realistic than RCP2.6. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzed the evolution of climate data in the Rio Bravo Basin in Mexico from 1980-2009 and projects future climate conditions in this region. Then, the potential impacts of climate change on water resources for crops in the nine irrigation districts (IDs) of the Rio Bravo Basin were evaluated. Specifically, climate data on precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and evapotranspiration from the baseline period of 1980-2009 were compared with projected climate conditions for 2015-2039, 2045-2069, and 2075-2099. The projections were based on two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Patterns in the behavior of the analyzed climate variables over the past ten decades were examined and compared to the projected evolution of these variables through to the end of the century. Overall, in the future, temperatures, rates of evapotranspiration, and crop water demand are expected to increase. Also, the future precipitation patterns of all IDs were modified under the considered scenarios. Finally, the IDs of Acuña-Falcón and Delicias will be the most impacted by climate changes, while Palestina will be the least affected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between climate and radial tree growth is traditionally used to reconstruct past climate conditions based on interannual tree-ring variations. However, few studies have used these climate-growth relationships to model the radial tree growth based on future climate projections. To detect the future forest dynamics, the climate-induced tree growth from 2006 to 2100 was projected using temperature changes under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Radial tree growth was mainly controlled by annual mean temperature in this region. Based on the relationship between regional annual mean temperature and radial tree growth, a regression model was built that explained 62.5% of variance in the observed temperature record over the period 1911–2005. A period of unprecedented radial tree growth was found after 1998 when compared with the tree growth in the past 700 years. We found that radial tree growth would increase in the period 2006–2045 and decline after that period due to the projected temperature decrease. As forest productivity and biomass are expected to increase with the increased tree growth, these results suggest that temperature-limited systems could see future increases in productivity as growth limitations are lessened. The results of this research could be used to predict regional forest dynamics in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global and regional climate model simulations are frequently used for regional climate change assessments and in climate impact modeling studies. To reflect the inherent and methodological uncertainties in climate modeling, the assessment of regional climate change requires ensemble simulations from different global and regional climate model combinations. To interpret the spread of simulated results, it is useful to understand how the climate change signal is modified in the GCM-RCM modelmodelgeneral circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM) chain. This kind of information can also be useful for impact modelers; for the process of experiment design and when interpreting model results. In this study, we investigate how the simulated historical and future climate of the Max-Planck-Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM) is modified by dynamic downscaling with the regional model REMO in different world regions. The historical climate simulations for 1950-2005 are driven by observed anthropogenic forcing. The climate projections are driven by projected anthropogenic forcing according to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The global simulations are downscaled with REMO over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains Africa, Europe, South America and West Asia from 2006-2100. This unique set of simulations allows for climate type specific analysis across multiple world regions and for multi-scenarios. We used a classification of climate types by Köppen-Trewartha to define evaluation regions with certain climate conditions. A systematic comparison of near-surface temperature and precipitation simulated by the regional and the global model is done. In general, the historical time period is well represented by the GCM and the RCM. Some different biases occur in the RCM compared to the GCM as in the Amazon Basin, northern Africa and the West Asian domain. Both models project similar warming, although somewhat less so by the RCM for certain regions and climate types. A common feature in regions of tropical climate types is that REMO shows dryer climate conditions than for Max Planck Institute for Meteorology-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, leading to an opposing sign in the climate change signal. With an increase in radiative forcing from RCP 2.6 to RCP 8.5 and towards the end of the 21st century, some of the detected differences between GCM and RCM are more pronounced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in hydrological cycles and water resources will certainly be a direct consequence of climate change, making the forecast of hydrological components essential for water resource assessment and management. This research was thus carried out to estimate water balance components and water yield under current and future climate change scenarios and trends in the Guder Catchment of the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia, using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Hydrological modeling was efficaciously calibrated and validated using the SUFI-2 algorithm of the SWAT model. The results showed that water yield varied from 926 mm to 1340 mm per year (1986–2016). Regional climate model (RCM) data showed, under representative concentration pathways (RCP 8.5), that the precipitation will decrease by up to 14.4% relative to the baseline (1986–2016) precipitation of 1228 mm/year, while the air temperature will rise under RCP 8.5 by +4.4 °C in the period from 2057 to 2086, possibly reducing the future basin water yield output, suggesting that the RCP 8.5 prediction will be warmer than RCP 4.5. Under RCP 8.5, the total water yield from 2024 to 2086 may be reduced by 3.2 mm per year, and a significant trend was observed. Local government agencies can arrange projects to solve community water-related issues based on these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite having contributed the least to global warming and having the lowest emissions, the African region is the most vulnerable continent to climate change impacts. To reduce the levels of risk arising from climate change, it is mandatory to combine both mitigation and adaptation. While mitigation can reduce global warming, not all impacts can be avoided. Therefore, adaptation is essential to advance strategic interventions and reduce the impacts. As part of the international effort to cope with changing climate, a set of Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains have been established worldwide. The CORDEX-Africa initiative has been developed to analyze downscaled regional climate data over the African domain for climate data analysis techniques and engage users of climate information in both sector-specific and region/space-based applications. This study takes outputs of high-resolution climate multi-models from the CORDEX-Africa initiative constructed at a spatial resolution of 50 km to assess climate change projections over Mozambique. Projected spatial and temporal changes (three 30-year time periods, the present (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070), and the end (2071–2100)) in temperature and precipitation under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 are analyzed and compared relative to the baseline period (1961–1990). Results show that there is a tendency toward an increase in annual temperature as we move toward the middle and end of the century, mainly for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This is evident for the Gaza Province, north of the Tete Province, and parts of Niassa Province, where variations will be Tmax (0.92 to 4.73 °C), Tmin (1.12 to 4.85 °C), and Tmean (0.99 to 4.7 °C). In contrast, the coastal region will experience less variation (values < 0.5 °C to 3 °C). At the seasonal scale, the pattern of temperature change does not differ from that of the annual scale. The JJA and SON seasons present the largest variations in temperature compared with DJF and MAM seasons. The increase in temperature may reach 4.47 °C in DJF, 4.59 °C in MAM, 5.04 °C in JJA, and 5.25 °C in SON. Precipitation shows substantial spatial and temporal variations, both in annual and seasonal scales. The northern coastal zone region shows a reduction in precipitation, while the entire southern region, with the exception of the coastal part, shows an increase up to 40% and up to 50% in some parts of the central and northern regions, in future climates for all periods under the three reference scenarios. At the seasonal scale (DJF and MAM), the precipitation in much of Mozambique shows above average precipitation with an increase up to more than 40% under the three scenarios. In contrast, during the JJA season, the three scenarios show a decrease in precipitation. Notably, the interior part will have the largest decrease, reaching a variation of −60% over most of the Gaza, Tete, and Niassa Provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The density of building blocks and insufficient greenery in cities tend to contribute dramatically not only to increased heat stress in the built environment but also to higher energy demand for cooling. Urban planners should, therefore, be conscious of their responsibility to reduce energy usage of buildings along with improving outdoor thermal efficiency. This study examines the impact of numerous proposed urban geometry cases on the thermal efficiency of outer spaces as well as the energy consumption of adjacent buildings under various climate change scenarios as representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate projections for New Aswan city in 2035. The investigation was performed at one of the most underutilized outdoor spaces on the new campus of Aswan University in New Aswan city. The potential reduction of heat stress was investigated so as to improve the thermal comfort of the investigated outdoor spaces, as well as energy savings based on the proposed strategies. Accordingly, the most appropriate scenario to be adopted to cope with the inevitable climate change was identified. The proposed scenarios were divided into four categories of parameters. In the first category, shelters partially (25–50% and 75%) covering the streets were used. The second category proposed dividing the space parallel or perpendicular to the existing buildings. The third category was a hybrid scenario of the first and second categories. In the fourth category, a green cover of grass was added. A coupling evaluation was applied utilizing ENVI-met v4.2 and Design-Builder v4.5 to measure and improve the thermal efficiency of the outdoor space and reduce the cooling energy. The results demonstrated that it is better to cover outdoor spaces with 50% of the overall area than transform outdoor spaces into canyons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrological dynamics of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. The understanding of the change in climate and its impact on water resource is of paramount importance to sustainable water resources management. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which the climate is being changed and its impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Results showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84 °C, 2.6 °C, and 4.1 °C in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2%, and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively. The change in stream flow of Gumara watershed under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios showed increasing trend in monthly average values in some months and years, but a decreasing trend was also observed in some years of the studied period. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67%under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work introduces a methodology for assessing near-future fire weather pattern changes based on the Canadian Fire Weather Index system components (Fire Weather Index (FWI), Initial Spread Index (ISI), Fire Severity Rating (FSR)), applied in touristic areas in Greece. Four series of daily raster-based datasets for the fire seasons (May–October), concerning a historic (2006 to 2015) and a future climatology period (2036–2045), were created for the areas under consideration, based on high-resolution climate modelling with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), PCR 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The climate model data were obtained from the European Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) climate database and consisted of atmospheric variables as required by the FWI system, at 12.5 km spatial resolution. The final datasets of the abovementioned variables used for the study were processed at 5 km spatial resolution for the domain of interest after applying regridding based on the nearest neighbour interpolating process. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) spatial operations, including spatial statistics and zonal analyses, were applied on the series of the derived daily raster maps in order to provide a number of output thematic layers. Moreover, historic FWI percentile values, which were estimated for Greece in the frame of a past research study of the Environmental Research Laboratory (EREL), were used as reference data for further evaluation of future fire weather changes. The straightforward methodology for the assessment of the evolution of spatial and temporal distribution of Fire weather Danger due to climate change presented herewith is an essential tool for enhancing the knowledge for the decision support process for forest fire prevention, planning and management policies in areas where the fire risk both in terms of fire hazard likelihood and expected impact is quite important due to human presence and cultural prestige, such as archaeological and tourist protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paramo ecosystems are tropical alpine grasslands, located above 3000 m.a.s.l. in the Andean mountain range. Their unique vegetation and soil characteristics, in combination with low temperature and abundant precipitation, create the most advantageous conditions for regulating and storing surface and groundwater. However, increasing temperatures and changing patterns of precipitation due to greenhouse-gas-emission climate change are threatening these fragile environments. In this study, we used regional observations and downscaled data for precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature during the reference period 1960–1990 and simulations for the future period 2041–2060 to study the present and future extents of paramo ecosystems in the Chingaza National Park (CNP), nearby Colombia's capital city, Bogotá. The historical data were used for establishing upper and lower precipitation and temperature boundaries to determine the locations where paramo ecosystems currently thrive. Our results found that increasing mean monthly temperatures and changing precipitation will render 39 to 52% of the current paramo extent in CNP unsuitable for these ecosystems during the dry season, and 13 to 34% during the wet season. The greatest loss of paramo area will occur during the dry season and for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5, when both temperature and precipitation boundaries are more prone to be exceeded. Although our initial estimates show the future impact on paramos and the water security of Bogotá due to climate change, complex internal and external interactions in paramo ecosystems make it essential to study other influencing climatic parameters (e.g., soil, topography, wind, etc.) apart from temperature and precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the natural climate is a major concern for food security across the world, including Bangladesh. This paper presents results from an analysis on quantitative assessment of changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) in the northwest region of Bangladesh, which is a major agricultural hub in the country. The study was conducted using results from 28 global climate models (GCMs), based on IPCC's 5th assessment report (AR5) for two emission scenarios. Projections were made over the period of 2045 to 2075 for 16 administrative districts in the study area, and the changes were estimated at annual, seasonal and monthly time scale. More projections result in an increase in rainfall than decrease, while almost all projections show an increase in PET. Although annual rainfall is generally projected to increase, some projections show a decrease in some months, especially in December and January. Across the region, the average change projected by the 28 GCMs for the moderate emission was an increase of 235 mm (12.4%) and 44 mm (3.4%) for rainfall and PET, respectively. Increases in rainfall and PET are slightly higher (0.6% and 0.2%, respectively) under high emission scenarios. Increases in both rainfall and PET were projected for two major cropping seasons, Kharif (May-Oct) and Rabi (Nov-Apr). Projections of rainfall show increase in the range of 160 to 250 mm (with an average of 200 mm) during the Kharif season. Although an increase is projected in the Rabi season, the amount is very small (~10mm). It is important to note that rainfall increases mostly in the Kharif season, but PET increases for both Kharif and Rabi seasons. Contrary to rainfall, increase in PET is higher during Rabi season. This information is crucial for better adaptation under increased water demand for agricultural and domestic use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating the impact of climate change on water resources is necessary for improving water resource management and adaptation measures at the watershed level. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on streamflow in South Korea using downscaled climate change information based on the global climate model (GCM) and hydrological simulation program–FORTRAN model. Representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 were employed in this study. During the distant future (2071–2099), the flow increased by 15.11% and 24.40% for RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2, respectively. The flow is highly dependent on precipitation and evapotranspiration. Both precipitation and evapotranspiration increased, but the relative change of precipitation was greater than the relative change of evapotranspiration. For this reason, the flow would show a significant increase. Additionally, for RCP 8.5 W/m2, the variability of the flow according to the GCM also increased because the variability of precipitation increased. Moreover, for RCP 8.5 W/m2, the summer and autumn flow increased significantly, and the winter flow decreased in both scenarios. The variability in autumn and winter was so great that the occurrence of extreme flow could intensify further. These projections indicated the possibility of future flooding and drought in summer and winter. Regionally, the flow was expected to show a significant increase in the southeastern region. The findings presented for South Korea could be used as primary data in establishing national climate change adaptation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change affect the availability of water resources by altering the magnitude of surface runoff, aquifer recharge, and river flows. The evaluation helps to identify the level of water resources exposure to the changes that could help to plan for potential adaptive capacity. In this research, Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov in IDRISI software was used to predict the future LULC scenarios and the ensemble mean of four regional climate models (RCMs) in the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa was used for the future climate scenarios. Distribution mapping was used to bias correct the RCMs outputs, with respect to the observed precipitation and temperature. Then, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate the watershed hydrological responses of the catchment under separate, and combined, LULC and climate change. The result shows the ensemble mean of the four RCMs reported precipitation decline and increase in future temperature under both representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The increases in both maximum and minimum temperatures are higher for higher emission scenarios showing that RCP8.5 projection is warmer than RCP4.5. The changes in LULC brings an increase in surface runoff and water yield and a decline in groundwater, while the projected climate change shows a decrease in surface runoff, groundwater and water yield. The combined study of LULC and climate change shows that the effect of the combined scenario is similar to that of climate change only scenario. The overall decline of annual flow is due to the decline in the seasonal flows under combined scenarios. This could bring the reduced availability of water for crop production, which will be a chronic issue of subsistence agriculture. The possibility of surface water and groundwater reduction could also affect the availability of water resources in the catchment and further aggravate water stress in the downstream. The highly rising demands of water, owing to socio-economic progress, population growth and high demand for irrigation water downstream, in addition to the variability temperature and evaporation demands, amplify prolonged water scarcity. Consequently, strong land-use planning and climate-resilient water management policies will be indispensable to manage the risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to climate change, heavy rainfall events that trigger landslips are becoming common. This study investigates patterns in the soil's response to major rainfall events in mountainous areas and proposes a new approach for resilient disaster prevention technology and recovery based on the effect of soil runoff. Namhyeon-dong within Seoul was selected for the case study because of its vulnerable location between two mountains. A master plan was developed to cope with the predicted soil runoff based on the annual rainfall, local land use and a series of 10-year forecasts covering the period from 2021 to 2100. A total of 22 catchments in the study area were analyzed with Arc Hydro, an ArcGIS plug-in and appropriate technologies proposed to deal with the soil runoff likely to be experienced in each catchment in an extreme disaster. The resulting model was deemed adequate to deal with disasters during the period predicted to represent the highest risk, 2051–2060. The study's findings will help to forecast disasters from flood that could impact residential areas in mountainous regions, to predict the magnitude of potential soil disasters in individual regions and develop design guidelines for disaster prevention technology based on the predicted amount of soil runoff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: The livestock sector requires a significant amount of natural resources and has an important role in climate change. Although the carbon footprint has become a widely accepted indicator for assessing the greenhouse gases emitted per unit of product, due to the lack of a commonly accepted methodology, there are still few studies that have included soil organic carbon sequestration in their calculations. In this study, by including soil organic carbon dynamics, the carbon footprint of a Mediterranean pasture-based beef cattle farm was estimated using current weather data and farming management policies. Subsequently, different soil management strategies, grazing systems, and climate scenarios were compared to the current ones to investigate the effects of these variables on the greenhouse gases emitted. The results showed that the current beef carbon footprint could be significantly reduced by switching to reduced tillage systems. The modeled combination of no-tillage practices with higher organic fertilizer application rates showed a greater potential carbon footprint reduction. No significant differences were found between carbon footprint values modeled under different climate scenarios and grazing systems. By including a process-based model into its carbon footprint calculations, this study highlights the climate mitigation potential of different farming practices and the importance of considering soil carbon sequestration. A better understanding of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is needed when assessing the carbon footprint (CFP) of livestock products and the effectiveness of possible agriculture mitigation strategies. This study aimed (i) to perform a cradle-to-gate CFP of pasture-based beef cattle in a Mediterranean agropastoral system (ii) and to assess the effects on the CFP of alternative tillage, fertilizing, and grazing practices under current (NCC) and future climate change (CC) scenarios. Minimum (Mt) and no-tillage (Nt) practices were compared to current tillage (Ct); a 50% increase (Hf) and decrease (Lf) in fertilization was evaluated against the current (Cf) rate; and rotational grazing (Rg) was evaluated versus the current continuous grazing (Cg) system. The denitrification–decomposition (DNDC) model was run using NCC as well as representative concentration pathways to investigate the effects of farm management practices coupled with future CC scenarios on SOC dynamics, N2O fluxes, and crop yield. Within NCC and CtCf, an emission intensity of 26.9 ± 0.7 kg CO2eq per kg live body weight was estimated. Compared to Ct, the adoption of Mt and Nt reduced the CFP by 20% and 35%, respectively, while NtHf reduced it by 40%. Conservation tillage practices were thus shown to be effective in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Six bias correction (BC) methods; delta-method (DT), linear scaling (LS), power transformation of precipitation (PTR), empirical quantile mapping (EQM), gamma quantile mapping (GQM) and gamma-pareto quantile mapping (GPQM) were applied to adjust the biases of historical monthly precipitation outputs from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) dynamically downscaled by two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for a total of seven different GCM-RCM pairs over Costa Rica. High-resolution gridded precipitation observations were used for the control period 1951–1980 and validated over the period 1981–1995. Results show that considerable biases exist between uncorrected GCM-RCM outputs and observations, which largely depend on GCM-RCM pair, seasonality, climatic region and spatial resolution. After the application of bias correction, substantial biases reductions and comparable performances among most BC methods were observed for most GCM-RCM pairs; with EQM and DT marginally outperforming the remaining methods. Consequently, EQM and DT were selectively applied to correct the biases of precipitation projections from each individual GCM-RCM pair for a near-future (2011–2040), mid-future (2041–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) period under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 using the control period 1961–1990. Results from the bias-corrected future ensemble-mean anticipate a marked decreasing trend in precipitation from near to far-future periods during the dry season (December, January, February (DJF) and March, April, May (MAM)) for RCP4.5 and 8.5; with pronounced drier conditions for those climatic regions draining towards the Pacific Ocean. In contrast, mostly wetter conditions are expected during the dry season under RCP2.6, particularly for the Caribbean region. In most of the country, the greatest decrease in precipitation is projected at the beginning of the rainy season (June, July, August (JJA)) for the far-future period under RCP8.5, except for the Caribbean region where mostly wetter conditions are anticipated. Regardless of future period, slight increases in precipitation with higher radiative forcing are expected for SON excluding the Caribbean region, where precipitation is likely to increase with increasing radiative forcing and future period. This study demonstrates that bias correction should be considered before direct application of GCM-RCM precipitation projections over complex territories such as Costa Rica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a lack of information about the effect of climate change on the water budget for the eastern side of Colombia, which is currently experiencing an increased pressure on its water resources due to the demand for food, industrial use, and human demand for drinking and hygiene. In this study, the lumped model BROOK90 was utilized with input based on the available historical and projected meteorological data, as well as land use and soil information. With this data, we were able to determine the changes in the water balance components in four different regions, representing four different water districts in Eastern Colombia. These four regions reflect four different sets of climate and geographic conditions. The projected data were obtained using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), in which two global climate models were used in addition to two different climate scenarios from each. These are the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Results showed that the temporal and spatial distribution of water balance components were considerably affected by the changing climate. A reduction in the generated streamflow for all of the studied regions is shown and changes in the evapotranspiration and stored water were varied for each region according to both the climate scenario as well as the characteristics of soil and land use for each area. The results of spatial change of the water balance components showed a direct link to the geography of each region. Soil moisture was reduced considerably in the next decades, and the percentage of decrease varied for each scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change induced by greenhouse gas emissions is expected to alter the natural availability of water, affecting domestic, agricultural and industrial uses. This work aims at assessing the possible future impacts of climate change on precipitation, temperature and runoff, and to simulate the effects on reservoir demand–performance curves. To this aim, a modeling chain is set up, based on the combined use of regional climate models (RCMs) and water supply system simulation models. The methodology is applied to the Pozzillo reservoir, located in Sicily (Italy), which has experienced several droughts in the past. We use an RCM model that, based on a previous study, has proved to be the most reliable in the area, among those of the EURO-CORDEX initiative. RCM precipitation and temperature monthly time series are used to generate future reservoir inflow data, according to two representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 (intermediate emissions scenario) and RCP8.5 (high emissions scenario) and a two-step bias correction procedure. Simulation of the reservoir indicated that, due to reservoir inflow reduction induced by climate change, performances of the Pozzillo reservoir are predicted to decrease significantly in the future, with impacts of RCP8.5 generally higher than RCP4.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire occurrence and behaviour in Mediterranean-type ecosystems strongly depend on the air temperature and wind conditions, the amount of fuel load and the drought conditions that drastically increase flammability, particularly during the summer period. In order to study the fire danger due to climate change for these ecosystems, the meteorologically based Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, which is part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), has been validated and recognized worldwide as one of the most trusted and important indicators for meteorological fire danger mapping. A number of FWI system components (Fire Weather Index, Drought Code, Initial Spread Index and Fire Severity Rating) were estimated and analysed in the current study for the Mediterranean area of France. Daily raster-based data-sets for the fire seasons (1st May–31st October) of a historic and a future time period were created for the study area based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, outputs of CNRM-SMHI and MPI-SMHI climate models. GIS spatial analyses were applied on the series of the derived daily raster maps in order to provide a number of output maps for the study area. The results portray various levels of changes in fire danger, in the near future, according to the examined indices. Number of days with high and very high FWI values were found to be doubled compared to the historical period, in particular in areas of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (PACA) region and Corsica. The areas with high Initial Spread Index and Seasonal Spread Index values increased as well, forming compact zones of high fire danger in the southern part of the study area, while the Drought Code index did not show remarkable changes. The current study on the evolution of spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire danger due to climate change can provide important knowledge to the decision support process for prevention and management policies of forest fires both at a national and EU level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of extreme heat in Seoul, Korea, are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude in response to global warming, necessitating certain adaptation strategies. However, there is a lack of knowledge of adaptation strategies that would be able to reduce the impacts of extreme heat to cope with an uncertain future, especially on the local scale. In this study, we aimed to determine the effect of adaptation strategies to reduce the mortality risk under two climate change mitigation scenarios, using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. We selected four street-level adaptation strategies: Green walls, sidewalk greenways, reduced-albedo sidewalks and street trees. As an extreme heat assessment criterion, we used a pedestrian mean radiant temperature threshold, which was strongly related to heat mortality. The results, projected to the 2050s, showed that green walls, greenways and reduced-albedo sidewalks could adequately reduce the extreme heat impacts under RCP2.6; however, only street trees could reduce the extreme heat impacts under RCP8.5 in the 2050s. This implies that required adaptation strategies can vary depending on the targeted scenario. This study was conducted using one street in Seoul, but the methodology can be expanded to include other adaptation strategies, and applied to various locations to help stakeholders decide on effective adaptation options and make local climate change adaptation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we assessed the performance of 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general climate models (GCMs) for simulating the observed temperature over the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) in 1961–2004. An improved score-based method was used to rank the performance of the GCMs over the LMB. Two methods of multi-model ensemble (MME), sub-ensemble from the top 25% ranked GCMs and full ensemble from the entire GCMs, were calculated using arithmetic mean (AM) method and downscaled using the Delta method to project future temperature change during two future time periods, the near future (2006–2049) and the far future (2050–2093), under representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios) over the LMB. The improved score-based method combining multiple criteria showed a robust assessment of the GCMs performance over the LMB, which can provide good information for projecting future temperature change. The results showed a significant increase in temperature over the LMB under the two ensembles. However, there were differences in the magnitudes of the future temperature increase between the two ensemble methods, with a higher mean annual temperature increase from full ensemble and sub-ensemble at 1.26 °C (1.09 °C), 1.90 °C (1.70 °C), and 2.97 °C (2.78 °C) during 2050–2093 under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios compared to the values at 0.93 °C (0.87 °C), 0.99 °C (0.95 °C), and 1.09 °C (1.06 °C) during 2006–2049, respectively, relative to the reference time period of 1961–2004. In the future (2006–2093), the temperature is likely to increase at 0.06 °C, 0.18 °C, and 0.39 °C decade−1 under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios by the sub-ensemble, while a higher temperature increase at 0.08 °C, 0.20 °C, and 0.42 °C was found by the full ensemble over the LMB, relative to the reference time period of 1961–2004. On the whole, the higher warming mainly occurred in the northern and central areas over the LMB, while the lower warming mainly occurred in the southeast and the southwest, especially under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the warming increased with increasing RCP for both ensembles. Moreover, in order to reduce the uncertainty of temperature projection in further studies in the LMB, multiple methods of GCMs ensemble should be considered and compared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]