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Pretreatment response prediction is crucial to select those patients with rectal cancer who will benefit from organ preservation strategies following (intensified) neoadjuvant therapy and to avoid unnecessary toxicity in those who will not. The combination of individual predictors in multivariable prediction models might improve predictive accuracy. The aim of this systematic review was to summarize and critically appraise validated pretreatment prediction models (other than radiomics-based models or image-based deep learning models) for response to neoadjuvant therapy in patients with rectal cancer and provide evidence-based recommendations for future research. MEDLINE via Ovid, Embase.com, and Scopus were searched for eligible studies published up to November 2022. A total of 5006 studies were screened and 16 were included for data extraction and risk of bias assessment using Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). All selected models were unique and grouped into five predictor categories: clinical, combined, genetics, metabolites, and pathology. Studies generally included patients with intermediate or advanced tumor stages who were treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Evaluated outcomes were pathological complete response and pathological tumor response. All studies were considered to have a high risk of bias and none of the models were externally validated in an independent study. Discriminative performances, estimated with the area under the curve (AUC), ranged per predictor category from 0.60 to 0.70 (clinical), 0.78 to 0.81 (combined), 0.66 to 0.91 (genetics), 0.54 to 0.80 (metabolites), and 0.71 to 0.91 (pathology). Model calibration outcomes were reported in five studies. Two collagen feature-based models showed the best predictive performance (AUCs 0.83-0.91 and good calibration). In conclusion, some pretreatment models for response prediction in rectal cancer show encouraging predictive potential but, given the high risk of bias in these studies, their value should be evaluated in future, well-designed studies.

The purpose of this study was to characterize the motion and define the required treatment margins of the pathological mesorectal lymph nodes (GTV ln ) for two online adaptive MRI-guided strategies for sequential boosting. Secondly, we determine the margins required for the primary gross tumor volume (GTV prim ). Twenty-eight patients treated on a 1.5T MR-Linac were included in the study. On T2-weighted images for adaptation (MRI adapt ) before and verification after irradiation (MRI post ) of five treatment fractions per patient, the GTV ln and GTV prim were delineated. With online adaptive MRI-guided radiotherapy, daily plan adaptation can be performed through the use of two different strategies. In an adapt-to-shape (ATS) workflow the interfraction motion is effectively corrected by redelineation and the only relevant motion is intrafraction motion, while in an adapt-to-position (ATP) workflow the margin (for GTV ln ) is dominated by interfraction motion. The margin required for GTV prim will be identical to the ATS workflow, assuming each fraction would be perfectly matched on GTV prim . The intrafraction motion was calculated between MRI adapt and MRI post for the GTV ln and GTV prim separately. The interfraction motion of the GTV ln was calculated with respect to the position of GTV prim , assuming each fraction would be perfectly matched on GTV prim . PTV margins were calculated for each strategy using the Van Herk recipe. For GTV ln we randomly sampled the original dataset 20 times, with each subset containing a single randomly selected lymph node for each patient. The resulting margins for ATS ranged between 3 and 4 mm (LR), 3 and 5 mm (CC) and 5 and 6 mm (AP) based on the 20 randomly sampled datasets for GTV ln . For ATP, the margins for GTV ln were 10-12 mm in LR and AP and 16-19 mm in CC. The margins for ATS for GTV prim were 1.7 mm (LR), 4.7 mm (CC) and 3.2 mm anterior and 5.6 mm posterior. Daily delineation using ATS of both target volumes results in the smallest margins and is therefore recommended for safe dose escalation to the primary tumor and lymph nodes.

After neoadjuvant (chemo)radiotherapy for rectal cancer, contact X-ray brachytherapy (CXB) can be applied aiming at organ preservation. This explorative study describes the early features on endoscopy and MRI after CXB. Patients treated with CXB following (chemo)radiotherapy and a follow-up of ≥12 months were selected. Endoscopy and MRI were performed every 3 months. Expert readers scored all the images according to structured reporting templates. Thirty-six patients were included, 15 of whom obtained a cCR. On endoscopy, the most frequently observed feature early in follow-up was an ulcer, regardless of whether patients developed a cCR. A flat, white scar and tumor mass were common at 6 months. Focal tumor signal on T2W-MRI and mass-like high signal on DWI were generally absent in patients with a cCR. An ulceration on T2W-MRI and "reactive" mucosal signal on DWI were observed early in follow-up regardless of the final tumor response. The distinction between a cCR and a residual tumor generally can be made at 6 months. Features associated with a residual tumor are tumor mass on endoscopy, focal tumor signal on T2W-MRI, and mass-like high signal on DWI. Early recognition of these features is necessary to identify patients who will not develop a cCR as early as possible.

Total mesorectal excision for rectal cancer is a major operation associated with morbidity and mortality. For older or inoperable patients, alternatives are necessary. This prospective study evaluated the oncological and functional outcome and quality of life of older or inoperable rectal cancer patients treated with a contact X-ray brachytherapy boost to avoid major surgery. During follow-up, tumor response and toxicity on endoscopy were scored. Functional outcome and quality of life were assessed with self-administered questionnaires. Additionally, in-depth interviews regarding patients' experiences were conducted. Nineteen patients were included with a median age of 80 years (range 72-91); nine patients achieved a clinical complete response and in another four local control of the tumor was established. The 12 month organ-preservation rate, progression-free survival, and overall survival were 88%, 78%, and 100%, respectively. A transient decrease in quality of life and bowel function was observed at 3 months, which was generally restored at 6 months. In-depth interviews revealed that patients' experience was positive despite the side-effects shortly after treatment. In older or inoperable rectal cancer patients, contact X-ray brachytherapy can be considered an option to avoid total mesorectal excision. Contact X-ray brachytherapy is well-tolerated and can provide good tumor control.