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The study assesses the direct effects of climate change by 2060, including extreme events, on the productivity of regional crop farming and livestock in Greece, and the broader socio-economic effects on the agri-food and other sectors. Different approaches (i.e., agronomic models, statistical regression models, and equations linking thermal stress to livestock output) were combined to estimate the effects on productivity from changes in the average values of climatic parameters, and subsequently the direct economic effects from this long-term climate change. Recorded damages from extreme events together with climatic thresholds per event and crop were combined to estimate the direct economic effects of these extremes. The broader socio-economic effects were then estimated through input–output analysis. Under average levels of future extreme events, the total direct economic losses for Greek agriculture due to climate change will be significant, from EUR 437 million/year to EUR 1 billion/year. These losses approximately double when indirect effects on other sectors using agricultural products as inputs (e.g., food and beverage, hotels, and restaurants) are considered, and escalate further under a tenfold impact of extreme events. Losses in the GDP and employment are moderate at the national level, but significant in regions where the contribution of agriculture is high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to significantly affect countries in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean Basin, causing higher-than-average temperature increases, considerable reductions in rainfall and water runoff, and extreme events such as heatwaves. These pose severe threats to local energy systems, requiring a reliable and quantitative risk analysis. A methodological approach is thus proposed which covers both energy supply and demand, utilizing the latest climate projections under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and an appropriate scale for each energy form. For energy supply technologies, risks are assessed through statistical regression models and/or mathematical equations correlating climatic parameters with energy productivity. To analyze climate risks for energy demand, bottom–up models were developed, integrating both behavioral and policy aspects which are often considered in a very limited way. The results show that climate change will mainly affect electricity generation from hydroelectric and thermal power plants, with variations depending on the plants' locations and uncertainties associated with precipitation and runoff changes. The climate risks for solar and wind energy were found to be low. Energy consumption will also be affected, but the range of risks depends on the ambition and the effectiveness of measures for upgrading the thermal performance of buildings and the intensity of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]