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We consider a between-host model for a single epidemic outbreak of an infectious disease. According to the progression of the disease, hosts are classified in regard to the pathogen load. Specifically, we are assuming four phases: non-infectious asymptomatic phase, infectious asymptomatic phase (key-feature of the model where individuals show up mild or no symptoms), infectious symptomatic phase and finally an immune phase. The system takes the form of a non-linear Markov chain in discrete time where linear transitions are based on geometric (main model) or negative-binomial (enhanced model) probability distributions. The whole system is reduced to a single non-linear renewal equation. Moreover, after linearization, at least two meaningful definitions of the basic reproduction number arise: firstly as the expected secondary asymptomatic cases produced by an asymptomatic primary case, and secondly as the expected number of symptomatic individuals that a symptomatic individual will produce. We study the evolution of infection transmission before and after symptom onset. Provided that individuals can develop symptoms and die from the disease, we take disease-induced mortality as a measure of virulence and it is assumed to be positively correlated with a weighted average transmission rate. According to our findings, transmission rate of the infection is always higher in the symptomatic phase yet under a suitable condition, most of the infections take place prior to symptom onset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work summarizes the activities carried out by the SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) Barcelona Expert Center (SMOS-BEC) team in conjunction with the CIALE/Universidad de Salamanca team, within the framework of the European Space Agency (ESA) CALIMAS project in preparation for the SMOS mission and during its first year of operation. Under these activities several studies were performed, ranging from Level 1 (calibration and image reconstruction) to Level 4 (land pixel disaggregation techniques, by means of data fusion with higher resolution data from optical/infrared sensors). Validation of SMOS salinity products by means of surface drifters developed ad-hoc, and soil moisture products over the REMEDHUS site (Zamora, Spain) are also presented. Results of other preparatory activities carried out to improve the performance of eventual SMOS follow-on missions are presented, including GNSS-R to infer the sea state correction needed for improved ocean salinity retrievals and land surface parameters. Results from CALIMAS show a satisfactory performance of the MIRAS instrument, the accuracy and efficiency of the algorithms implemented in the ground data processors, and explore the limits of spatial resolution of soil moisture products using data fusion, as well as the feasibility of GNSS-R techniques for sea state determination and soil moisture monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reservoirs are natural or artificial lakes used as a source of water supply for society daily applications. In addition, hydroelectric power plants produce electricity while water flows through the reservoir. However, reservoirs are limited natural resources since water levels vary according to annual rainfalls and other natural events, and consequently, the energy generation. Therefore, forecasting techniques are helpful to predict water level, and thus, electricity production. This paper examines state-of-the-art methods to predict the water level in Catalan reservoirs comparing two approaches: using the water level uniquely, uni-variant; and adding meteorological data, multi-variant. With respect to relating works, our contribution includes a longer times series prediction keeping a high precision. The results return that combining Support Vector Machine and the multi-variant approach provides the highest precision with an R 2 value of 0.99. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]