1. Does Last Year’s Cost Predict the Present Cost? An Application of Machine Leaning for the Japanese Area-Basis Public Health Insurance Database
- Author
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Nobuhiro Hanada, Koji Yamakawa, Erika Kakuta, Ryoko Otsuka, Yoshiaki Nomura, Kaoru Sogabe, Shunsuke Suzuki, Kenji Morita, Yota Chiba, Yoshimasa Ishii, Meu Ishikawa, Ayako Okada, Senichi Suzuki, Yasuo Ishiwata, Akira Suzuki, and Joji Tanabe
- Subjects
Databases, Factual ,Policy making ,neural network ,Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis ,Observation period ,lcsh:Medicine ,Oral health ,healthcare cost ,computer.software_genre ,Article ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Cost of Illness ,Japan ,Medication cost ,Per capita ,Humans ,dental healthcare cost ,030212 general & internal medicine ,health care economics and organizations ,Government ,Insurance, Health ,Database ,Public health insurance ,lcsh:R ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,030206 dentistry ,Health Care Costs ,medical healthcare cost ,zero-inflated model ,Healthcare cost ,Business ,computer - Abstract
The increasing healthcare cost imposes a large economic burden for the Japanese government. Predicting the healthcare cost may be a useful tool for policy making. A database of the area-basis public health insurance of one city was analyzed to predict the medical healthcare cost by the dental healthcare cost with a machine learning strategy. The 30,340 subjects who had continued registration of the area-basis public health insurance of Ebina city during April 2017 to September 2018 were analyzed. The sum of the healthcare cost was JPY 13,548,831,930. The per capita healthcare cost was JPY 446,567. The proportion of medical healthcare cost, medication cost, and dental healthcare cost was 78%, 15%, and 7%, respectively. By the results of the neural network model, the medical healthcare cost proportionally depended on the medical healthcare cost of the previous year. The dental healthcare cost of the previous year had a reducing effect on the medical healthcare cost. However, the effect was very small. Oral health may be a risk for chronic diseases. However, when evaluated by the healthcare cost, its effect was very small during the observation period.
- Published
- 2021