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Numerical models can be powerful tools for evaluating the best scenarios for the construction of artificial nourishments to mitigate coastal erosion. Until recent decades, when looking at medium- to long-term simulations, cross-shore and alongshore processes have been studied separately. Accounting for both processes in a shoreline evolution numerical model would improve the understanding and predictive capacity of future changes in coastline evolution. The AX-COAST project aims to develop new capacities in modeling cross-shore sediment transport processes by adding the CS-Model, a cross-shore numerical model, into the existing LTC (Long-Term Configuration) model. The LTC model is a shoreline evolution numerical model which is a module of the cost–benefit assessment tool COAST. This work presents the first steps of the CS-Model implementation, which involve evaluating its performance by calibrating the model with extensive measured datasets of wave climate, beach profiles, tide levels, etc., from coastal areas in IJmuiden and Sand Motor in the Netherlands. The results show good agreement between modeled and observed values. Additionally, wave climate datasets derived from global and regional wave models were considered to evaluate modeling performance at IJmuiden. Using derived timeseries from the wave models did not significantly lead to different results compared to using measured data. The obtained mean absolute and relative errors for each profile were low for both types of datasets. Calibration processes with consistent data are important in modeling simulations to accurately represent the study area and ensure the credibility of future simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tidal sand waves form a dynamic bed pattern, widely occurring in shallow shelf seas such as the North Sea. Their importance to coastal engineering has inspired many advances in process-based sand wave modelling, aimed at explaining physical mechanisms in the formation stage ('linear regime') and capturing the finite amplitude evolution to equilibrium states ('nonlinear regime'). However, systematic validation of particularly the nonlinear sand wave models is still lacking. Here, we perform a two-step calibration and validation study of a sand wave model (specifically, their linear and nonlinear model versions) against field data from the North Sea. In the first step, the linear model is calibrated by seeking overall values of two uncertain input parameters (slip parameter, wave period) for which the modeled and observed wavelengths show the best agreement. In the second step, using the calibrated input parameters and preferred wavelengths from the linear model, equilibrium heights from the nonlinear sand wave model are validated against the observed sand wave heights. Our results show satisfactory agreement between observed and modeled sand wave lengths (from the linear sand wave model) and a systematic overprediction of sand wave heights (using the nonlinear model). Regression analysis can be used to rescale the nonlinear model results to obtain realistic predictions of sand wave heights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We aim to assess the impact of a pandemic data point on the calibration of a stochastic multi-population mortality projection model and its resulting projections for future mortality rates. Throughout the paper, we put focus on the Li and Lee mortality model, which has become a standard for projecting mortality in Belgium and the Netherlands. We calibrate this mortality model on annual death counts and exposures at the level of individual ages. This type of mortality data are typically collected, produced and reported with a significant delay of—for some countries—several years on a platform such as the Human Mortality Database. To enable a timely evaluation of the impact of a pandemic data point, we have to rely on other data sources (e.g., the Short-Term Mortality Fluctuations Data series) that swiftly publish weekly mortality data collected in age buckets. To be compliant with the design and calibration strategy of the Li and Lee model, we transform the weekly mortality data collected in age buckets to yearly, age-specific observations. Therefore, our paper constructs a protocol to ungroup the death counts and exposures registered in age buckets to individual ages. To evaluate the impact of a pandemic shock, like COVID-19 in the year 2020, we weigh this data point in either the calibration or projection step. Obviously, the more weight we place on this data point, the more impact we observe on future estimated mortality rates and life expectancies. Our paper allows for quantifying this impact and provides actuaries and actuarial associations with a framework to generate scenarios of future mortality under various assessments of the pandemic data point. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low-cost sensor technology has been available for several years and has the potential to complement official monitoring networks. The current generation of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) sensors suffers from various technical problems. This study explores the added value of calibration models based on (multiple) linear regression including cross terms on the performance of an electrochemical NO2 sensor, the B43F manufactured by Alphasense. Sensor data were collected in duplicate at four reference sites in the Netherlands over a period of one year. It is shown that a calibration, using O3 and temperature in addition to a reference NO2 measurement, improves the prediction in terms of R2 from less than 0.5 to 0.69–0.84. The uncertainty of the calibrated sensors meets the Data Quality Objective for indicative methods specified by the EU directive in some cases and it was verified that the sensor signal itself remains an important predictor in the multilinear regressions. In practice, these sensors are likely to be calibrated over a period (much) shorter than one year. This study shows the dependence of the quality of the calibrated signal on the choice of these short (monthly) calibration and validation periods. This information will be valuable for determining short-period calibration strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geographic information system (GIS) based tools have become popular for solar photovoltaic (PV) potential estimations, especially in urban areas. There are readily available tools for the mapping and estimation of solar irradiation that give results with the click of a button. Although these tools capture the complexities of the urban environment, they often miss the more important atmospheric parameters that determine the irradiation and potential estimations. Therefore, validation of these models is necessary for accurate potential energy yield and capacity estimations. This paper demonstrates the calibration and validation of the solar radiation model developed by Fu and Rich, employed within ArcGIS, with a focus on the input atmospheric parameters, diffusivity and transmissivity for the Netherlands. In addition, factors affecting the model's performance with respect to the resolution of the input data were studied. Data were calibrated using ground measurements from Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) stations in the Netherlands and validated with the station data from Cabauw. The results show that the default model values of diffusivity and transmissivity lead to substantial underestimation or overestimation of solar insolation. In addition, this paper also shows that calibration can be performed at different time scales depending on the purpose and spatial resolution of the input data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nine Sky Quality Meters (SQMs) have been intercompared during a night time measurement campaign held in the Netherlands in April 2011. Since then the nine SQMs have been distributed across The Netherlands and form the Dutch network for monitoring night sky brightness. The goal of the intercomparison was to infer mutual calibration factors and obtain insight into the variability of the SQMs under different meteorological situations. An ensemble average is built from the individual measurements and used as a reference to infer the mutual calibration factors. Data required additional synchronization prior to the calibration determination, because the effect of moving clouds combined with small misalignments emerges as time jitter in the measurements. Initial scatter of the individual instruments lies between ±14%. Individual night time sums range from -16% to +20%. Intercalibration reduces this to 0.5%, and -7% to +9%, respectively. During the campaign the smallest luminance measured was 0.657 ± 0.003 mcd/m(2) on 12 April, and the largest value was 5.94 ± 0.03 mcd/m(2) on 2 April. During both occurrences interfering circumstances like snow cover or moonlight were absent.