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Load forecasting (LF) is an essential factor in power system management. LF helps the utility maximize the utilization of power-generating plants and schedule them both reliably and economically. In this paper, a novel and hybrid forecasting method is proposed, combining a long short-term memory network (LSTM) and neural prophet (NP) through an artificial neural network. The paper aims to predict electric load for different time horizons with improved accuracy as well as consistency. The proposed model uses historical load data, weather data, and statistical features obtained from the historical data. Multiple case studies have been conducted with two different real-time data sets on three different types of load forecasting. The hybrid model is later compared with a few established methods of load forecasting found in the literature with different performance metrics: mean average percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), sum of square error (SSE), and regression coefficient (R). Moreover, a guideline with various attributes is provided for different types of load forecasting considering the applications of the proposed model. The results and comparisons from our test cases showed that the proposed hybrid model improved the forecasting accuracy for three different types of load forecasting over other forecasting techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 5G deployment brings forth the usage of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) to assist wireless networks by providing improved signal coverage, acting as relays or base-stations. Another technology that could help achieve 5G massive machine-type communications (mMtc) goals is the Long Range Wide-Area Network (LoRaWAN) communication protocol. This paper studied these complementary technologies, LoRa and UAV, through measurement campaigns in suburban, densely forested environments. Downlink and uplink communication at different heights and spreading factors (SF) demonstrate distinct behavior through our analysis. Moreover, a neural network was trained to predict the measured signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) behavior and results compared with SNR regression models. For the downlink scenario, the neural network results show a root mean square error (RMSE) variation between 1.2322–1.6623 dB, with an error standard deviation (SD) less than 1.6730 dB. For the uplink, the RMSE variation was between 0.8714–1.3891 dB, with an error SD less than 1.1706 dB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concrete is an economical and efficient material for attenuating radiation. The potential of concrete in attenuating radiation is attributed to its density, which in turn depends on the mix design of concrete. This paper presents the findings of a study conducted to evaluate the radiation attenuation with varying water-cement ratio (w/c), thickness, density, and compressive strength of concrete. Three different types of concrete, i.e., normal concrete, barite, and magnetite containing concrete, were prepared to investigate this study. The radiation attenuation was calculated by studying the dose absorbed by the concrete and the linear attenuation coefficient. Additionally, artificial neural network (ANN) and gene expression programming (GEP) models were developed for predicting the radiation shielding capacity of concrete. A correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated as 0.999, 1.474 mGy, 2.154 mGy and 0.994, 5.07 mGy, 5.772 mGy for the training and validation sets of the ANN model, respectively. Similarly, for the GEP model, these values were recorded as 0.981, 13.17 mGy, and 20.20 mGy for the training set, whereas the validation data yielded R = 0.985, MAE = 12.2 mGy, and RMSE = 14.96 mGy. The statistical evaluation reflects that the developed models manifested close agreement between experimental and predicted results. In comparison, the ANN model surpassed the accuracy of the GEP models, yielding the highest R and the lowest MAE and RMSE. The parametric and sensitivity analysis revealed the thickness and density of concrete as the most influential parameters in contributing towards radiation shielding. The mathematical equation derived from the GEP models signifies its importance such that the equation can be easily used for future prediction of radiation shielding of high-density concrete. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP) is a key parameter for measuring the power output of an internal combustion engine (ICE). This indicator can be used to locate the high efficiency regions of engines. Therefore, it makes sense to predict the IMEP based on the machine learning (ML) approaches. However, different ML models are applicable to different scenarios, so it is important to choose the right model for prediction. The objective of this paper was to compare three ML models' (ANN, SVR, RF) predictive performance in forecasting IMEP indicator with the input parameters spark timing (ST), speed and load. A validated one-dimensional (1D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was employed to provide 756 sets of data for the training, validation, and testing of the model. The results indicated that the random forest (RF) model had the worst prediction performance, and support vector regression (SVR) had a slightly better prediction performance than the artificial neural network (ANN), at least for the investigations in this study. Overall, the ANN and SVR models showed good predictive performance for IMEP, as the coefficient of determination (R2) was close to unity, and the root mean squared error (RMSE) was close to zero. Whereas the overall prediction results of the RF model are acceptable, the RF model does not learn well for some internal engine laws. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind energy is one of the fastest growing sources of energy worldwide. This is clear from the high volume of wind power applications that have been increased in recent years. However, the uncertain nature of wind speed induces several challenges towards the development of efficient applications that require a deep analysis of wind speed data and an accurate wind energy potential at a site. Therefore, wind speed forecasting plays a crucial rule in reducing this uncertainty and improving application efficiency. In this paper, we experimented with several forecasting models coming from both machine-learning and deep-learning paradigms to predict wind speed in a metrological wind station located in East Jerusalem, Palestine. The wind speed data were obtained, modelled, and forecasted using six machine-learning techniques, namely Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), lasso regression, ridge regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), random forest, and deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Five variables were considered to develop the wind speed prediction models: timestamp, hourly wind speed, pressure, temperature, and direction. The performance of the models was evaluated using four statistical error measures: Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and coefficient of determination (R2). The experimental results demonstrated that the random forest followed by the LSMT-RNN outperformed the other techniques in terms of wind speed prediction accuracy for the study site. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy-duty trucks contribute approximately 20% of fuel consumption in the United States of America (USA). The fuel economy of heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) is affected by several real-world parameters like road parameters, driver behavior, weather conditions, and vehicle parameters, etc. Although modern vehicles comply with emissions regulations, potential malfunction of the engine, regular wear and tear, or other factors could affect vehicle performance. Predicting fuel consumption per trip based on dynamic on-road data can help the automotive industry to reduce the cost and time for on-road testing. Data modeling can easily help to diagnose the reason behind fuel consumption with a knowledge of input parameters. In this paper, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to model fuel consumption in modern heavy-duty trucks for predicting the total and instantaneous fuel consumption of a trip based on very few key parameters, such as engine load (%), engine speed (rpm), and vehicle speed (km/h). Instantaneous fuel consumption data can help to predict patterns in fuel consumption for optimized fleet operations. In this work, the data used for modeling was collected at a frequency of 1Hz during on-road testing of modern heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) at the West Virginia University Center for Alternative Fuels Engines and Emissions (WVU CAFEE) using the portable emissions monitoring system (PEMS). The performance of the artificial neural network was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The model was further evaluated with data collected from a vehicle on-road trip. The study shows that artificial neural networks performed slightly better than other machine learning techniques such as linear regression (LR), and random forest (RF), with high R-squared (R2) and lower root mean square error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past two decades, wind energy has been under fast development worldwide. The dramatic increase of wind power penetration in electricity production has posed a big challenge to grid integration due to the high uncertainty of wind power. Accurate real-time forecasts of wind farm power outputs can help to mitigate the problem. Among the various techniques developed for wind power forecasting, the hybridization of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and machine learning (ML) techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) are attracting many researchers world-wide nowadays, because it has the potential to yield more accurate forecasts. In this paper, two hybrid NWP and ANN models for wind power forecasting over a highly complex terrain are proposed. The developed models have a fine temporal resolution and a sufficiently large prediction horizon (>6 h ahead). Model 1 directly forecasts the energy production of each wind turbine. Model 2 forecasts first the wind speed, then converts it to the power using a fitted power curve. Effects of various modeling options (selection of inputs, network structures, etc.) on the model performance are investigated. Performances of different models are evaluated based on four normalized error measures. Statistical results of model predictions are presented with discussions. Python was utilized for task automation and machine learning. The end result is a fully working library for wind power predictions and a set of tools for running the models in forecast mode. It is shown that the proposed models are able to yield accurate wind farm power forecasts at a site with high terrain and flow complexities. Especially, for Model 2, the normalized Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error are obtained as 8.76% and 13.03%, respectively, lower than the errors reported by other models in the same category. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the growing public awareness of cardiovascular disease (CVD), blood pressure (BP) estimation models have been developed based on physiological parameters extracted from both electrocardiograms (ECGs) and photoplethysmograms (PPGs). Still, in order to enhance the usability as well as reduce the sensor cost, researchers endeavor to establish a generalized BP estimation model using only PPG signals. In this paper, we propose a deep neural network model capable of extracting 32 features exclusively from PPG signals for BP estimation. The effectiveness and accuracy of our proposed model was evaluated by the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), the Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation (AAMI) standard and the British Hypertension Society (BHS) standard. Experimental results showed that the RMSEs in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) are 4.643 mmHg and 3.307 mmHg, respectively, across 9000 subjects, with 80.63% of absolute errors among estimated SBP records lower than 5 mmHg and 90.19% of absolute errors among estimated DBP records lower than 5 mmHg. We demonstrated that our proposed model has remarkably high accuracy on the largest BP database found in the literature, which shows its effectiveness compared to some prior works. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electrohydraulic forming is a high-velocity forming process that deforms sheet metals with velocities above 100 m/s and strain rates more than 100 s−1. This experiment was conducted in a closed space because of safety concerns related to the high-velocity conditions; therefore, we were not able to examine the deformation process of the sheet metal. To observe the electrohydraulic forming process in detail, we performed virtual numerical simulations using accurate material properties. Therefore, in this paper, we obtained the material property of a sheet metal from a numerical estimation by using a surrogate model based on the reduced order model and the artificial neural network. The Cowper–Symonds constitutive equation was selected for the Al 6061-T6 sheet metal, and two strain rate parameters were adopted as the unknown parameters. From the two sampling techniques, the training and test samples were extracted from the specific ranges of two unknown parameters, and a numerical simulation was performed for these samples by using the LS-DYNA program. The z-axis displacements of the deformed sheet metal were obtained from the results of the numerical simulation, and two basis vectors were extracted by using principal component analysis. In addition, to predict the weighting coefficients of the two basis vectors at the defined range of parameters, we used the artificial neural network technique as a surrogate model. By comparing the surrogate model and the experimental results and calculating the root mean square error value, we estimated the optimal parameter for Al 6061-T6. Finally, the reliability of the obtained material parameters was proved by comparing the experimental results, the surrogate model, and LS-DYNA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to establish a reliable model that provides the best fit to the specific behavior of the flow stresses of the 10%Cr steel alloy at the time of hot deformation. Modified Johnson–Cook and strain-compensated Arrhenius-type (phenomenological models), in addition to two Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were established with the view toward investigating their stress prediction performances. The ANN models were trained using Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG) and Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) algorithms. The prediction accuracy of the established models was evaluated using the following well-known statistical parameters: (a) correlation coefficient (R), (b) Average Absolute Relative Error (AARE), (c) Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Relative Error (RE). The results showed that both of the modified Johnson–Cook and strain-compensated Arrhenius models could not competently predict the flow behavior. On the contrary, the results indicated that the two proposed ANN models precisely predicted the flow stress values and that the LM-trained ANN provided a superior performance over the SCG-trained model, as it yielded an RMSE of as low as 0.441 MPa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Photovoltaics (PV) output power is highly sensitive to many environmental parameters and the power produced by the PV systems is significantly affected by the harsh environments. The annual PV power density of around 2000 kWh/m2 in the Arabian Peninsula is an exploitable wealth of energy source. These countries plan to increase the contribution of power from renewable energy (RE) over the years. Due to its abundance, the focus of RE is on solar energy. Evaluation and analysis of PV performance in terms of predicting the output PV power with less error demands investigation of the effects of relevant environmental parameters on its performance. In this paper, the authors have studied the effects of the relevant environmental parameters, such as irradiance, relative humidity, ambient temperature, wind speed, PV surface temperature and accumulated dust on the output power of the PV panel. Calibration of several sensors for an in-house built PV system was described. Several multiple regression models and artificial neural network (ANN)-based prediction models were trained and tested to forecast the hourly power output of the PV system. The ANN models with all the features and features selected using correlation feature selection (CFS) and relief feature selection (ReliefF) techniques were found to successfully predict PV output power with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 2.1436, 6.1555, and 5.5351, respectively. Two different bias calculation techniques were used to evaluate the instances of biased prediction, which can be utilized to reduce bias to improve accuracy. The ANN model outperforms other regression models, such as a linear regression model, M5P decision tree and gaussian process regression (GPR) model. This will have a noteworthy contribution in scaling the PV deployment in countries like Qatar and increase the share of PV power in the national power production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]