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Considering the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of sea-level-change time series, this study focuses on enhancing the predictive accuracy of sea level change. The adjacent seas of China are selected as the research area, and the study integrates singular spectrum analysis (SSA) with long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks to establish an SSA-LSTM hybrid model for predicting sea level change based on sea level anomaly datasets from 1993 to 2021. Comparative analyses are conducted between the SSA-LSTM hybrid model and singular LSTM neural network model, as well as (empirical mode decomposition) EMD-LSTM and (Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise) CEEMDAN-LSTM hybrid models. Evaluation metrics, including the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and the coefficient of determination (R2), are employed for the accuracy assessment. The results demonstrate a significant improvement in prediction accuracy using the SSA-LSTM hybrid model, with an RMSE of 5.26 mm, MAE of 4.27 mm, and R2 of 0.98, all surpassing those of the other models. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that the SSA-LSTM hybrid model can more accurately predict sea level change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate forecasting remains a challenge, even with advanced techniques like deep learning (DL), ARIMA, and Holt–Winters (H&W), particularly for chaotic phenomena such as those observed in several areas, such as COVID-19, energy, and financial time series. Addressing this, we introduce a Forecasting Method with Filters and Residual Analysis (FMFRA), a hybrid methodology specifically applied to datasets of COVID-19 time series, which we selected for their complexity and exemplification of current forecasting challenges. FMFFRA consists of the following two approaches: FMFRA-DL, employing deep learning, and FMFRA-SSA, using singular spectrum analysis. This proposed method applies the following three phases: filtering, forecasting, and residual analysis. Initially, each time series is split into filtered and residual components. The second phase involves a simple fine-tuning for the filtered time series, while the third phase refines the forecasts and mitigates noise. FMFRA-DL is adept at forecasting complex series by distinguishing primary trends from insufficient relevant information. FMFRA-SSA is effective in data-scarce scenarios, enhancing forecasts through automated parameter search and residual analysis. Chosen for their geographical and substantial populations and chaotic dynamics, time series for Mexico, the United States, Colombia, and Brazil permitted a comparative perspective. FMFRA demonstrates its efficacy by improving the common forecasting performance measures of MAPE by 22.91%, DA by 13.19%, and RMSE by 25.24% compared to the second-best method, showcasing its potential for providing essential insights into various rapidly evolving domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electricity consumption behavior of the inhabitants is a major contributor to the uncertainty of the residential load system. Human-caused uncertainty may have a distributional component, but it is not well understood, which limits further understanding the stochastic component of load forecasting. This study proposes a short-term load-interval forecasting method considering the stochastic features caused by users' electricity consumption behavior. The proposed method is composed of two parts: load-point forecasting using singular spectrum analysis and long short-term memory (SSA-LSTM), and load boundaries forecasting using statistical analysis. Firstly, the load sequence is decomposed and recombined using SSA to obtain regular and stochastic subsequences. Then, the load-point forecasting LSTM network model is trained from the regular subsequence. Subsequently, the load boundaries related to load consumption consistency are forecasted by statistical analysis. Finally, the forecasting results are combined to obtain the load-interval forecasting result. The case study reveals that compared with other common methods, the proposed method can forecast the load interval more accurately and stably based on the load time series. By using the proposed method, the evaluation index coverage rates (CRs) are (17.50%, 1.95%, 1.05%, 0.97%, 7.80%, 4.55%, 9.52%, 1.11%), (17.95%, 3.02%, 1.49%, 5.49%, 5.03%, 1.66%, 1.49%), (19.79%, 2.79%, 1.43%, 1.18%, 3.37%, 1.42%) higher than the compared methods, and the interval average convergences (IACs) are (−18.19%, −8.15%, 3.97%), (36.97%, 21.92%, 22.59%), (12.31%, 21.59%, 7.22%) compared to the existing methods in three different counties, respectively, which shows that the proposed method has better overall performance and applicability through our discussion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional phased array radar is unable to distinguish mainlobe deceptive interference from the true target when they share an identical angle. To address this issue, a method is developed to suppress the interference in the joint transmit–receive–Doppler frequency domain, using secondary compensation and quadratic phase code (QPC) with the frequency diversity array multiple-input multiple-output (FDA-MIMO) radar. The QPC technique is employed by encoding the transmitted pulses in various spatial channels, which extends the degrees-of-freedom (DOFs) of the system. To distinguish and suppress the false targets behind the true target by at least one pulse, Doppler compensation is performed and Doppler filters are employed. To distinguish the fast-generated false targets, which are located in the same pulse with the true target, the spatial frequency compensation is implemented, which equivalently relocates the mainlobe interference to the sidelobes. Via the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) technique and the data-dependent beamforming, the interferences within the ambiguity region are suppressed. Simulation results verify the effectiveness of the method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efforts to delineate the influence of atmospheric variability on regional wildfire activity have previously been complicated by the stochastic occurrence of ignition and large fire events, particularly for Southern California, where anthropogenic modulation of the fire regime is extensive. Traditional metrics of wildfire activity inherently contain this stochasticity, likely weakening regional fire–climate relationships. To resolve this complication, we first develop a new method of quantifying regional wildfire activity that aims to more clearly capture the atmospheric fire regime component by aggregating four metrics of fire activity into an annual index value, the Annual Fire Severity Index (AFSI), for the 27-year period of 1992–2018. We then decompose the AFSI into trend and oscillatory components using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and relate each component to a set of five climate predictors known to modulate macroscale fire activity in Southern California. These include the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Santa Ana wind (SAW) events, and marine layer frequency. The results indicate that SSA effectively isolates the individual influence of each predictor on AFSI quantified by generally moderate fire–climate correlations, | r | > 0.4 , over the full study period, and | r | > 0.5 over select 13–15-year periods. A transition between weaker and stronger fire–climate relationships for each of the oscillatory PC–predictor pairs is centered around the mid-2000s, suggesting a significant shift in fire–climate variability at this time. Our approach of aggregating and decomposing a fire activity index yields a straightforward methodology to identify the individual influence of climatic predictors on macroscale fire activity even in fire regimes heavily modified by anthropogenic influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, data collected from 2000 to 2019 on vapor pressure deficit ( V P D ) and its relationship with micrometeorological variables (fire occurrences, aerosol concentration, temperature, and carbon flux) were analyzed in six locations situated in different Brazilian ecosystems: Rio Branco, AC; Manaus, AM; Alta Floresta, MT (within the Amazon Rainforest); Baia das Pedras, MT (Pantanal); Fazenda Miranda, MT (Cerrado); and Petrolina, PE (northeastern semiarid region). Temporal series analysis of V P D was conducted by determining the principal component of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) for this variable in all locations. It was observed that the main component of SSA for V P D is sensitive to local land-use changes, while no evidence of large-scale influences related to global climate change was observed. A strong coupling between V P D values and local maximum temperature with monthly fire occurrence and logarithmic aerosol concentration profiles was also observed. The results of the study are discussed in the context of the ecosystems' carbon sequestration capacity. The combined results of the study indicate a scenario in which local land-use changes can compromise the capacity of Brazilian ecosystems to absorb carbon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the Recurrent Singular Spectrum Decomposition (R-SSD) algorithm is proposed as an improvement over the Recurrent Singular Spectrum Analysis (R-SSA) algorithm for forecasting non-linear and non-stationary narrowband time series. R-SSD modifies the embedding step of the basic SSA method to reduce energy residuals. This paper conducts simulations and real-case studies to investigate the properties of the R-SSD method and compare its performance with R-SSA. The results show that R-SSD yields more accurate forecasts in terms of ratio root mean squared errors (RRMSEs) and ratio mean absolute errors (RMAEs) criteria. Additionally, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov Predictive Accuracy (KSPA) test indicates significant accuracy gains with R-SSD over R-SSA, as it measures the maximum distance between the empirical cumulative distribution functions of recurrent prediction errors and determines whether a lower error leads to stochastically less error. Finally, the non-parametric Wilcoxon test confirms that R-SSD outperforms R-SSA in filtering and forecasting new data points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is a non-parametric adaptive technique used for time series analysis. It allows solving various problems related to time series without the need to define a model. In this study, we focus on the problem of trend extraction. To extract trends using SSA, a grouping of elementary components is required. However, automating this process is challenging due to the nonparametric nature of SSA. Although there are some known approaches to automated grouping in SSA, they do not work well when the signal components are mixed. In this paper, a novel approach that combines automated identification of trend components with separability improvement is proposed. We also consider a new method called EOSSA for separability improvement, along with other known methods. The automated modifications are numerically compared and applied to real-life time series. The proposed approach demonstrated its advantage in extracting trends when dealing with mixed signal components. The separability-improving method EOSSA proved to be the most accurate when the signal rank is properly detected or slightly exceeded. The automated SSA was very successfully applied to US Unemployment data to separate an annual trend from seasonal effects. The proposed approach has shown its capability to automatically extract trends without the need to determine their parametric form. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heart rate measurement employing photoplethysmography (PPG) is a prevalent technique for wearable devices. However, the acquired PPG signal is often contaminated with motion artifacts, which need to be accurately removed. In cases where the PPG and accelerometer (ACC) spectra overlap at the actual heart rate, traditional discrete Fourier transform (DFT) algorithms fail to compute the heart rate accurately. This study proposed an enhanced heart rate extraction algorithm based on PPG to address the issue of PPG and ACC spectral overlap. The spectral overlap is assessed according to the morphological characteristics of both the PPG and ACC spectra. Upon detecting an overlap, the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) algorithm is employed to calculate the heart rate at the given time. The SSA algorithm effectively resolves the issue of spectral overlap by removing motion artifacts through the elimination of ACC-related time series in the PPG signal. Experimental results reveal that the accuracy of the proposed algorithm surpasses that of the traditional DFT method by 19.01%. The proposed method makes up for the deficiency posed by artifact and heart rate signal overlap in conventional algorithms and significantly improves heart rate extraction accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attention refers to the human psychological ability to focus on doing an activity. The attention assessment plays an important role in diagnosing attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). In this paper, the attention assessment is performed via a classification approach. First, the single-channel electroencephalograms (EEGs) are acquired from various participants when they perform various activities. Then, fast Fourier transform (FFT) is applied to the acquired EEGs, and the high-frequency components are discarded for performing denoising. Next, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is applied to remove the underlying trend of the signals. In order to extract more features, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is employed to increase the total number of the components. Finally, some typical models such as the random forest-based classifier, the support vector machine (SVM)-based classifier, and the back-propagation (BP) neural network-based classifier are used for performing the classifications. Here, the percentages of the classification accuracies are employed as the attention scores. The computer numerical simulation results show that our proposed method yields a higher classification performance compared to the traditional methods without performing the EMD and SSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, the authors propose an algorithmic approach to building a model of the dynamics of economic and, in particular, innovation processes. The approach under consideration is based on a complex algorithm that includes (1) decomposition of the time series into components using singular spectrum analysis; (2) recognition of the optimal component model based on fuzzy rules, and (3) creation of statistical models of individual components with their combination. It is shown that this approach corresponds to the high uncertainty characteristic of the tasks of the dynamics of innovation processes. The proposed algorithm makes it possible to create effective models that can be used both for analysis and for predicting the future states of the processes under study. The advantage of this algorithm is the possibility to expand the base of rules and components used for modeling. This is an important condition for improving the algorithm and its applicability for solving a wide range of problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An MHD vibration sensor, as a new type of sensor used for vibration measurements, meets the technical requirements for the low-noisy measurement of acceleration, velocity, and micro-vibration in spacecraft during their development, launch, and orbit operations. A linear vibration sensor with a runway type based on MHD was independently developed by a laboratory. In a practical test, its output signal was mixed with a large amount of noise, in which the continuous narrowband interference was particularly prominent, resulting in the inability to efficiently carry out the real-time detection of micro-vibration. Considering the high interference of narrowband noise in linear vibration signals, a single-channel blind signal separation method based on SSA and FastICA is proposed in this study, which provides a new strategy for linear vibration signals. Firstly, the singular spectrum of the linear vibration signal with noise was analyzed to suppress the narrowband interference in the collected signal. Then, a FastICA algorithm was used to separate the independent signal source. The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively separate the useful linear vibration signals from the collected signals with low SNR, which is suitable for the separation of the MHD linear vibration sensor and other vibration measurement sensors. Compared with EEMD, VMD, and wavelet threshold denoising, the SNR of the separated signal is increased by 10 times on average. Through the verification of the actual acquisition of the linear vibration signal, this method has a good denoising effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power is essential for planning power systems and constructing intelligent grids. However, this has become difficult due to the intermittency and instability of PV power data. This paper introduces a deep learning framework based on 7.5 min-ahead and 15 min-ahead approaches to predict short-term PV power. Specifically, we propose a hybrid model based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks with the Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm. To begin, the SSA decomposes the PV power series into several sub-signals. Then, the BO algorithm automatically adjusts hyperparameters for the deep neural network architecture. Following that, parallel BiLSTM networks predict the value of each component. Finally, the prediction of the sub-signals is summed to generate the final prediction results. The performance of the proposed model is investigated using two datasets collected from real-world rooftop stations in eastern China. The 7.5 min-ahead predictions generated by the proposed model can reduce up to 380.51% error, and the 15 min-ahead predictions decrease by up to 296.01% error. The experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model in comparison to other forecasting methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The method of alternating projections for extracting low-rank signals is considered. The problem of decreasing the computational costs while keeping the estimation accuracy is analyzed. The proposed algorithm consists of alternating projections on the set of low-rank matrices and the set of Hankel matrices, where iterations of weighted projections with different weights are mixed. For algorithm justification, theory related to mixed alternating projections to linear subspaces is studied and the limit of mixed projections is obtained. The proposed approach is applied to the problem of Hankel low-rank approximation for constructing a modification of the Cadzow algorithm. Numerical examples compare the accuracy and computational cost of the proposed algorithm and Cadzow iterations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To reduce the impact of volatility on photovoltaic (PV) power generation forecasting and achieve improved forecasting accuracy, this article provides an in-depth analysis of the characteristics of PV power outputs under typical weather conditions. The trend of PV power generation and the similarity between simultaneous outputs are found, and a hybrid prediction model based on feature matching, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and a long short-term memory (LSTM) network is proposed. In this paper, correlation analysis is used to verify the trend of PV power generation; the similarity between forecasting days and historical meteorological data is calculated through grey relation analysis; and similar generated PV power levels are searched for phase feature matching. The input time series is decomposed by singular spectrum analysis; the trend component, oscillation component and noise component are extracted; and principal component analysis and reconstruction are carried out on each component. Then, an LSTM network prediction model is established for the reconstructed subsequences, and the external feature input is controlled to compare the obtained prediction results. Finally, the model performance is evaluated through the data of a PV power plant in a certain area. The experimental results prove that the SSA-LSTM model has the best prediction performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In general, studies on short-term hourly electricity load modeling and forecasting do not investigate in detail the sources of uncertainty in forecasting. This study aims to evaluate the impact and benefits of applying bootstrap aggregation in overcoming the uncertainty in time series forecasting, thereby increasing the accuracy of multistep ahead point forecasts. We implemented the existing and proposed clustering-based bootstrapping methods to generate new electricity load time series. In the proposed method, we use singular spectrum analysis to decompose the series between signal and noise to reduce the variance of the bootstrapped series. The noise is then bootstrapped by K-means clustering-based generation of Gaussian normal distribution (KM.N) before adding it back to the signal, resulting in the bootstrapped series. We apply the benchmark models for electricity load forecasting, SARIMA, NNAR, TBATS, and DSHW, to model all new bootstrapped series and determine the multistep ahead point forecasts. The forecast values obtained from the original series are compared with the mean and median across all forecasts calculated from the bootstrapped series using the Malaysian, Polish, and Indonesian hourly load series for 12, 24, and 36 steps ahead. We conclude that, in this case, the proposed bootstrapping method improves the accuracy of multistep-ahead forecast values, especially when considering the SARIMA and NNAR models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of primary frequency regulation (FR) technology has prompted wind power to provide support for active power control systems, and it is critical to accurately assess and predict the wind power FR potential. Therefore, a prediction model for wind power virtual inertia and primary FR potential is proposed. Firstly, the primary FR control mode is divided and the mapping relationship of operating wind speed and FR potential is constructed. Secondly, a hybrid prediction method of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) is proposed for predicting the speed of wind. Finally, the wind speed sequence is adopted to calculate the FR potential with various regulation modes in future time. The results show the advantages of the proposed method in the prediction accuracy of wind power FR potential and the ability to characterize the uncertainty information of the prediction results. Accurate modeling and prediction of wind power FR potential can significantly promote wind turbines to implement fine control of primary FR and optimal allocation of FR capacity within wind farm and group. Based on the actual operation data, the deterministic prediction and probability prediction of the FR potential of wind farms are conducted in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smart factories and big data are important factors in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Smart factories aim for automation and integration; however, the most important part is the application of data. Despite extensive research on the maintenance and quality management of big data-based production equipment, industrial data gathered for analysis contain more normal data than abnormal data. In addition, a significant amount of energy is expended in the data pre-processing process to analyze the acquired data. Therefore, to maintain production equipment and quality management, data classification technology that allows easy data analysis by classifying abnormal data into normal data is required. In this paper, we propose an abnormal data classification architecture for cycle data sets gathered from production facilities through SSA-CAE along with data storage methods for each product unit. SSA-CAE is a hybrid technique that combines singular spectrum analysis (SSA) techniques that are effective in reducing noise in time series data with convolutional auto encoder (CAE) that have performed well in time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among the smart factory studies, we describe defect detection research conducted on bearings, which are elements of mechanical facilities. Bearing research has been consistently conducted in the past; however, most of the research has been limited to using existing artificial intelligence models. In addition, previous studies assumed the factories situated in the bearing defect research were insufficient. Therefore, a recent research was conducted that applied an artificial intelligence model and the factory environment. The transformer model was selected as state-of-the-art (SOTA) and was also applied to bearing research. Then, an experiment was conducted with Gaussian noise applied to assume a factory situation. The swish-LSTM transformer (Sl transformer) framework was constructed by redesigning the internal structure of the transformer using the swish activation function and long short-term memory (LSTM). Then, the data in noise were removed and reconstructed using the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) preprocessing method. Based on the SSA-Sl transformer framework, an experiment was performed by adding Gaussian noise to the Case Western Reserve University (CWRU) dataset. In the case of no noise, the Sl transformer showed more than 95% performance, and when noise was inserted, the SSA-Sl transformer showed better performance than the comparative artificial intelligence models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional experimental modal analysis uses excitation and response information to estimate the frequency response function. However, many engineering structures face excitation signals that are difficult to measure, so output-only modal estimation is an important issue. In this paper, singular spectrum analysis is employed to construct a Hankel matrix of appropriate dimensions based on the measured response data, and the observability of the system state space model is used to treat the Hankel matrix as three components containing system characteristics, excitation and noise. Singular value decomposition is used to factorize the data matrix and use the characteristics of the left and right singular matrices to reduce the dimension of the data matrix to improve calculation efficiency. Furthermore, the singular spectrum is employed to estimate the minimum order to reconstruct the Hankel matrix; then, the excitation and noise components can be removed, and the system observability matrix can be obtained. By appropriately a factorizing system observability matrix, we obtain the system matrix to estimate the modal parameters. In addition, the fictitious modes produced by increasing the order of the matrix can be eliminated through the stabilization diagram. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monthly rainfall forecasts can be translated into monthly runoff predictions that could support water resources planning and management activities. Therefore, development of monthly rainfall forecasting models in reservoir watersheds is essential for generating future rainfall amounts as an input to a water-resources-system simulation model to predict water shortage conditions. This research aims to examine the reliability of linking a data preprocessing method (singular spectrum analysis, SSA) with machine learning, least-squares support vector regression (LS-SVR), and random forest (RF), for monthly rainfall forecasting in two reservoir watersheds (Deji and Shihmen reservoir watersheds) located in Taiwan. Merging SSA with LS-SVR and RF, the hybrid models (SSA-LSSVR and SSA-RF) were developed and compared with the standard models (LS-SVR and RF). The proposed models were calibrated and validated using the watersheds' observed areal monthly rainfalls separated into 70 percent of data for calibration and 30 percent of data for validation. Model performances were evaluated using two accuracy measures, root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Results show that the hybrid models could efficiently forecast monthly rainfalls. Nonetheless, the performances of the hybrid models vary in both watersheds which suggests that prior knowledge about the watershed's hydrological behavior would be helpful to implement the appropriate model. Overall, the hybrid models significantly surpass the standard models for the two studied watersheds, which indicates that the proposed models are a prudent modeling approach that could be employed in the current research regions for monthly rainfall forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Femtosecond laser ranging has drawn great interest in recent years, particularly based on an asynchronous optical sampling implementation where a pair of femtosecond lasers are used. High precision absolute ranging either relies on tightly-phase-locked optical frequency combs (a dual-comb setup) or multiple averaging of the measurements from two free-running femtosecond lasers. The former technique is too complicated for practical applications, while the latter technique does not apply to moving targets. In this report, we propose a new route to utilizing a powerful singular spectrum analysis (SSA) filtering method to improve femtosecond laser ranging precision for moving targets with acceleration. The SSA method is capable of separating complex patterns in signals without a priori knowledge of the dynamical model. Here, we utilize the basic SSA filter to extract the target trajectory in the presence of measurement noise both in numerical simulation and in the absolute ranging experiment based on a pair of free-running femtosecond lasers. The experimentally-achieved absolute ranging uncertainty of a moving target is well below 110 nm at a 200-Hz update rate by applying the basic SSA filter. This method paves the way to the practical applications of femtosecond absolute ranging for dynamic objects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Having the ability to forecast groundwater levels is very significant because of their vital role in basic functions related to efficiency and the sustainability of water supplies. The uncertainty which dominates our understanding of the functioning of water supply systems is of great significance and arises as a consequence of the time-unbalanced water consumption rate and the deterioration of the recharge conditions of captured aquifers. The aim of this paper is to present a hybrid model based on fuzzy C-mean clustering and singular spectrum analysis to forecast the weekly values of the groundwater level of a groundwater source. This hybrid model demonstrates how the fuzzy C-mean can be used to transform the sequence of the observed data into a sequence of fuzzy states, serving as a basis for the forecasting of future states by singular spectrum analysis. In this way, the forecasting efficiency is improved, because we predict the interval rather than the crisp value where the level will be. It gives much more flexibility to the engineers when managing and planning sustainable water supplies. A model is tested by using the observed weekly time series of the groundwater source, located near the town of Čačak in south-western Serbia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to measure the nonlinear features of micromechanical resonators, a free damped oscillation method based on stair-stepped frequency sinusoidal pulse excitation is investigated. In the vicinity of the resonant frequency, a frequency stepping sinusoidal pulse sequence is employed as the excitation signal. A set of free vibration response signals, containing different degrees of nonlinear dynamical characteristics, are obtained. The amplitude-frequency curves of the resonator are acquired from the forced vibration signals. Together with a singular spectrum analysis algorithm, the instantaneous amplitudes and instantaneous frequencies are extracted by a Hilbert transform from the free vibration signals. The calculated Backbone curves, and frequency response function (FRF) curves are distinct and can be used to characterize the nonlinear dynamics of the resonator. Taking a Duffing system as an example, numerical simulations are carried out for free vibration response signals in cases of different signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs). The results show that this method displays better anti-noise performance than FREEVIB. A vibrating ring microgyroscope is experimentally tested. The obtained Backbone and FRF curves agree with those obtained by the traditional frequency sweeping method. As a test technique, the proposed method can also be used to for experimentally testing the dynamic characteristics of other types of micromechanical resonators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During a construction project life cycle, project costs and time estimations contribute greatly to baseline scheduling. Besides, schedule risk analysis and project control are also influenced by the above factors. Although many papers have offered estimation techniques, little attempt has been made to generate project time series data as daily progressive estimations in different project environments that could help researchers in generating general and customized formulae in further studies. This paper, however, is an attempt to introduce a new simulation approach to reflect the data regarding time series progress of the project, considering the specifications and the complexity of the project and the environment where the project is performed. Moreover, this simulator can equip project managers with estimated information, which reassures them of the execution stages of the project although they lack historical data. A case study is presented to show the usefulness of the model and its applicability in practice. In this study, singular spectrum analysis has been employed to analyze the simulated outputs, and the results are separated based on their signal and noise trends. The signal trend is used as a point-of-reference to compare the outputs of a simulation employing S-curve technique results and the formulae corresponding to earned value management, as well as the life of a given project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are many models that have been used to simulate the rainfall-runoff relationship. The artificial neural network (ANN) model was selected to investigate an approach of improving daily runoff forecasting accuracy in terms of data preprocessing. Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) as one data preprocessing technique was adopted to deal with the model inputs and the SSA-ANN model was developed. The proposed model was compared with the original ANN model without data preprocessing and a nonlinear perturbation model (NLPM) based on ANN, i.e., the NLPM-ANN model. Eight watersheds were selected for calibrating and testing these models. Comparative study shows that the learning and training ability of ANN models can be improved by SSA and NLPM techniques significantly, and the performance of the SSA-ANN model is much better than the NLPM-ANN model, with high foresting accuracy. The SSA-ANN1 model, which only considers rainfall as model input, was compared with the SSA-ANN2 model, which considers both rainfall and previous runoff as model inputs. It is shown that the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion of the SSA-ANN2 model is much higher than that of the SSA-ANN1 model, which means that the proper selection of previous runoff data as rainfall-runoff model inputs can significantly improve model performance since they usually are highly auto-correlated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term building energy consumption forecasting is vital for energy conservation and emission reduction. However, it is challenging to achieve accurate short-term forecasting of building energy consumption due to its nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics. This paper proposes a novel hybrid short-term building energy consumption forecasting model, SSA-CNNBiGRU, which is the integration of SSA (singular spectrum analysis), a CNN (convolutional neural network), and a BiGRU (bidirectional gated recurrent unit) neural network. In the proposed SSA-CNNBiGRU model, SSA is used to decompose trend and periodic components from the original building energy consumption data to reconstruct subsequences, the CNN is used to extract deep characteristic information from each subsequence, and the BiGRU network is used to model the dynamic features extracted by the CNN for time series forecasting. The subsequence forecasting results are superimposed to obtain the predicted building energy consumption results. Real-world electricity and natural gas consumption datasets of office buildings in the UK were studied, and the multi-step ahead forecasting was carried out under three different scenarios. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model can improve building energy consumption forecasting accuracy and stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In electrical engineering, partial discharge (PD) measurement has been widely used for inspecting and judging insulation conditions of high voltage (HV) apparatus. However, on-site PD measurement easily becomes contaminated by noises. Particularly, sinusoidal noise makes it difficult to recognize real PD signal, thus leading to the misjudgment of insulation conditions. Therefore, sinusoidal noise removal is necessary. In this paper, instantaneous frequency (IF) is introduced, and the synchrosqueezing transform (SST) as well as singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is proposed for sinusoidal noise removal. A continuous analytic wavelet transform is firstly applied to the noisy PD signal and then the time frequency representation (TFR) is reassigned by SST. Narrow-band sinusoidal noise has fixed IF, while PD signal has much larger frequency range and time-varying IF. Due to the difference, the reassigned TFR enables the sinusoidal noise to be distinguished from PD signal. After synthesizing the signal with the recognized IF, SSA is further applied to signal refinement. At last, a numerical simulation is carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, and its robustness to white noise is also validated. After the implementation of the proposed method, wavelet thresholding can be further applied for white noise reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In video processing, background initialization aims to obtain a scene without foreground objects. Recently, the background initialization problem has attracted the attention of researchers because of its real-world applications, such as video segmentation, computational photography, video surveillance, etc. However, the background initialization problem is still challenging because of the complex variations in illumination, intermittent motion, camera jitter, shadow, etc. This paper proposes a novel and effective background initialization method using singular spectrum analysis. Firstly, we extract the video's color frames and split them into RGB color channels. Next, RGB color channels of the video are saved as color channel spatio-temporal data. After decomposing the color channel spatio-temporal data by singular spectrum analysis, we obtain the stable and dynamic components using different eigentriple groups. Our study indicates that the stable component contains a background image and the dynamic component includes the foreground image. Finally, the color background image is reconstructed by merging RGB color channel images obtained by reshaping the stable component data. Experimental results on the public scene background initialization databases show that our proposed method achieves a good color background image compared with state-of-the-art methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to rapid development of the Internet and the rise of the big data era, microblog has become the main means for people to spread and obtain information. If people can accurately predict the development trend of a microblog event, it will be of great significance for the government to carry out public relations activities on network event supervision and guide the development of microblog event reasonably for network crisis. This paper presents effective solutions to deal with trend prediction of microblog events' popularity. Firstly, by selecting the influence factors and quantifying the weight of each factor with an information entropy algorithm, the microblog event popularity is modeled. Secondly, the singular spectrum analysis is carried out to decompose and reconstruct the time series of the popularity of microblog event. Then, the box chart method is used to divide the popularity of microblog event into various trend spaces. In addition, this paper exploits the Bi-LSTM model to deal with trend prediction with a sequence to label model. Finally, the comparative experimental analysis is carried out on two real data sets crawled from Sina Weibo platform. Compared to three comparative methods, the experimental results show that our proposal improves F1-score by up to 39%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term electricity load forecasting is key to the safe, reliable, and economical operation of power systems. An important challenge that arises with high-frequency load series, e.g., hourly load, is how to deal with the complex seasonal patterns that are present. Standard approaches suggest either removing seasonality prior to modeling or applying time series decomposition. This work proposes a hybrid approach that combines Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)-based decomposition and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for day-ahead hourly load forecasting. First, the trajectory matrix of the time series is constructed and decomposed into trend, oscillating, and noise components. Next, the extracted components are employed as exogenous regressors in a global forecasting model, comprising either a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) or a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) predictive layer. The model is further extended to include exogenous features, e.g., weather forecasts, transformed via parallel dense layers. The predictive performance is evaluated on two real-world datasets, controlling for the effect of exogenous features on predictive accuracy. The results showcase that the decomposition step improves the relative performance for ANN models, with the combination of LSTM and SAA providing the best overall performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mw7.9 Alaska earthquake at 09:31:40 UTC on 23 January 2018 occurred as the result of strike slip faulting within the shallow lithosphere of the Pacific plate. Global positioning system (GPS) data were used to calculate the slant total electron contents above the epicenter. The singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method was used to extract detailed ionospheric disturbance information, and to monitor the co-seismic ionospheric disturbances (CIDs) of the Alaska earthquake. The results show that the near-field CIDs were detected 8–12 min after the main shock, and the typical compression-rarefaction wave (N-shaped wave) appeared. The ionospheric disturbances propagate to the southwest at a horizontal velocity of 2.61 km/s within 500 km from the epicenter. The maximum amplitude of CIDs appears about 0.16 TECU (1TECU = 1016 el m−2) near the epicenter, and gradually decreases with the location of sub-ionospheric points (SIPs) far away from the epicenter. The attenuation rate of amplitude slows down as the distance between the SIPs and the epicenter increases. The direction of the CIDs caused by strike-slip faults may be affected by the horizontal direction of fault slip. The propagation characteristics of the ionospheric disturbance in the Alaska earthquake may be related to the complex conditions of focal mechanisms and fault location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The metro system plays an important role in urban public transit, and the passenger flow forecasting is fundamental to assisting operators establishing an intelligent transport system (ITS). The forecasting results can provide necessary information for travelling decision of travelers and metro operations of managers. In order to investigate the inner characteristics of passenger flow and make a more accurate prediction with less training time, a novel model (i.e., SSA-AWELM), a combination of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and AdaBoost-weighted extreme learning machine (AWELM), is proposed in this paper. SSA is developed to decompose the original data into three components of trend, periodicity, and residue. AWELM is developed to forecast each component desperately. The three predicted results are summed as the final outcomes. In the experiments, the dataset is collected from the automatic fare collection (AFC) system of Hangzhou metro in China. We extracted three weeks of passenger flow to carry out multistep prediction tests and a comparison analysis. The results indicate that the proposed SSA-AWELM model can reduce both predicted errors and training time. In particular, compared with the prevalent deep-learning model long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, SSA-AWELM has reduced the testing errors by 22% and saved time by 84%, on average. It demonstrates that SSA-AWELM is a promising approach for passenger flow forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Altimeter waveforms are usually contaminated due to nonmarine surfaces or inhomogeneous sea state conditions. The present work aimed to present how the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) can be used to reduce the noise level in Jason-1 altimeter waveforms to obtain SSA-denoised waveforms, improving the accuracy of a mean sea surface height (MSSH) model. Comparing the retracked sea surface heights (SSHs) by a 50% threshold retracker for the SSA-denoised waveforms with those for the raw waveforms, the results indicated that SSA allowed a noise reduction on Jason-1 waveforms, improving the accuracy of retracked SSHs. The MSSH model (called Model 1) over the South China Sea with a grid of 2′ × 2′ was established from the retracked SSHs of Jason-1 by the 50% threshold retracker for the SSA-denoised waveforms. Comparing Model 1 and Model 2 (established from the retracked SSHs by the 50% threshold retracker for the raw waveforms) with the CLS15 and DTU18 models in the South China Sea, it was found that the accuracy of Model 1 was higher than that of Model 2, which indicates that using SSA to reduce noise level in Jason-1 waveforms can effectively improve the accuracy of the MSSH model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is a non-parametric method that breaks down a time series into a set of components that can be interpreted and grouped as trend, periodicity, and noise, emphasizing the separability of the underlying components and separate periodicities that occur at different time scales. The original time series can be recovered by summing all components. However, only the components associated to the signal should be considered for the reconstruction of the noise-free time series and to conduct forecasts. When the time series data has the presence of outliers, SSA and other classic parametric and non-parametric methods might result in misleading conclusions and robust methodologies should be used. In this paper we consider the use of two robust SSA algorithms for model fit and one for model forecasting. The classic SSA model, the robust SSA alternatives, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model are compared in terms of computational time and accuracy for model fit and model forecast, using a simulation example and time series data from the quotas and returns of six mutual investment funds. When outliers are present in the data, the simulation study shows that the robust SSA algorithms outperform the classical ARIMA and SSA models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multimodal biometrics technology has recently gained interest due to its capacity to overcome certain inherent limitations of the single biometric modalities and to improve the overall recognition rate. A common biometric recognition system consists of sensing, feature extraction, and matching modules. The robustness of the system depends much more on the reliability to extract relevant information from the single biometric traits. This paper proposes a new feature extraction technique for a multimodal biometric system using face–iris traits. The iris feature extraction is carried out using an efficient multi-resolution 2D Log-Gabor filter to capture textural information in different scales and orientations. On the other hand, the facial features are computed using the powerful method of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) in conjunction with the wavelet transform. SSA aims at expanding signals or images into interpretable and physically meaningful components. In this study, SSA is applied and combined with the normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) statistical features derived from wavelet transform. The fusion process of relevant features from the two modalities are combined at a hybrid fusion level. The evaluation process is performed on a chimeric database and consists of Olivetti research laboratory (ORL) and face recognition technology (FERET) for face and Chinese academy of science institute of automation (CASIA) v3.0 iris image database (CASIA V3) interval for iris. Experimental results show the robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]