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Located in the southeast region of Brazil, the Cantareira System consists of six interconnected reservoirs and supplies around 14 million people in the state of São Paulo. Built in the 1970s, when extensive fluviometric series were not available in the region, the system underwent several operating rules that culminated in the water crisis caused by the 2014/2015 drought. This article makes a brief critical account of what has been experienced in these almost 50 years of operating the system, the factors that influenced the water crisis, and what has been learned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought events have affected many regions of the world, having negative economic, environmental and social impacts. When accompanied by increasing water demands, these events can lead to water scarcity. Since droughts can significantly vary in each geographic area, several indices have been developed around the world. Hazard indexes are commonly used to predict meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts. These indexes intend to predict hazards, but they do not provide information on when and where deficits can have negative consequences. This study presents a new planning and decision-support tool for monitoring water scarcity situations in a given region. This tool, called the Water Scarcity Risk Index (W-ScaRI), is formed by two subindices, which are proposed to describe a hazard and its consequences. Each subindex was constructed using a group of indicators and indices selected from the technical literature or originally proposed in this work. The W-ScaRI was applied to the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Region (RJMR), supplied with water by the Guandu/Lajes/Acari system. The RJMR is one of the most densely populated regions in Brazil, located in an area that has no natural water bodies capable of meeting its supply needs. Therefore, the Guandu River, which, in fact, is formed by two discharge transpositions from the Paraíba do Sul River, is the main drinking water supply source for this region. The RJMR suffered the consequences of unexpected, prolonged droughts in the Southeast region in 2003 and 2014–2015, leading the local authorities to implement temporary emergency measures in the management system of Paraíba do Sul and Guandu Basins, avoiding water shortage but showing the urgent need for planning and management support tools to anticipate possible future problems. The results of the study show that the formulation of the W-ScaRI can represent the water scarcity risk in a relatively simple way and, at the same time, with adequate conceptual and methodological consistency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2012–2018 drought was such an extreme event in the drought-prone area of Northeast Brazil that it triggered a discussion about proactive drought management. This paper aims at understanding the causes and consequences of this event and analyzes its frequency. A consecutive sequence of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, at both the decadal and interannual scales, led to this severe and persistent drought. Drought duration and severity were analyzed using run theory at the hydrographic region scale as decision-makers understand impact analysis better at this scale. Copula functions were used to properly model drought joint characteristics as they presented different marginal distributions and an asymmetric behavior. The 2012–2018 drought in Ceará State had the highest mean bivariate return period ever recorded, estimated at 240 years. Considering drought duration and severity simultaneously at the level of the hydrographic regions improves risk assessment. This result advances our understanding of exceptional events. In this sense, the present work proposes the use of this analysis as a tool for proactive drought planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a natural hazard with critical societal and economic consequences to millions of people around the world. In this paper, we present the climatology of severe drought events that occurred during the 20th century in the region of Sao Paulo, Brazil. To account for the effects of rainfall deficit and changes in temperature at a climatic timescale, we chose the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to identify severe droughts over the city of Sao Paulo, and the eastern and central-western regions of the state. Events were identified using weather station data and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data, in order to assess the representation of drought periods in both datasets. Results show that the reanalysis seems suitable to represent the number of events and their mean duration, severity and intensity, but the timing and characteristics of individual events are not well reproduced. The correlation between observation and reanalysis SPEI time series is low to moderate in all cases. A linear trend analysis between 1901 and 2010 shows a tendency of increasing (decreasing) severe drought events in the central and western (eastern) Sao Paulo state, according to observational data. This is in agreement with previous findings, and the reanalysis presents this same signal. The weakened trend values in the reanalysis may be associated with issues in representing precipitation in this dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil has recently experienced one of its worst droughts in the last 80 years, with wide-ranging consequences for water supply restrictions, energy rationing, and agricultural losses. Northeast and Southeast Brazil, which share the São Francisco River basin (SFRB), have experienced serious precipitation reduction since 2011. We used terrestrial water-storage (TWS) fields, inverted from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission measurements, to assess and quantify the ongoing drought over the SFRB.We found a water loss rate of 3.30 km³/year over the time-span of April 2002 to March 2015. In addition, the TWS drought index (TWSDI) showed the extension of the recent drought that has jeopardized the SFRB since January 2012, and which reached its maximum in July 2015 (the end of TWS time series). In this sense there seems to be a linkage between the TWSDI (wetness/dryness) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in terms of the wavelet coherence, at the semi-annual and biennial bands, suggesting a relationship between the two. While acknowledging that further investigation is needed, we believe that our findings should contribute to the water management policies by quantifying the impact of this drought event over the SFRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates from the absence of precipitation over a certain period and is capable of causing damage to societal development. With the advent of orbital remote sensing, rainfall estimates from satellites have appeared as viable alternatives to monitor natural hazards in ungauged basins and complex areas of the world; however, the accuracies of these orbital products still need to be verified. Thus, this work aims to evaluate the performance of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite rainfall estimates in monitoring the spatiotemporal behavior of droughts at multiple temporal scales over Paraíba State based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) over 20 years (1998–2017). For this purpose, rainfall data from 78 rain gauges and 187 equally spaced TRMM cell grids throughout the region are used, and accuracy analyses are performed at the single-gauge level and in four mesoregions at eight different time scales based on 11 statistical metrics calculations divided into three different categories. The results show that in the mesoregions close to the coast, the satellite-based product is less accurate in capturing the drought behavior regardless of the evaluated statistical metrics. At the temporal scale, the TRMM is more accurate in identifying the pattern of medium-term droughts; however, there is considerable spatial variation in the accuracy of the product depending on the performance index. Therefore, it is concluded that rainfall estimates from the TRMM satellite are a valuable source of data to identify drought behavior in a large part of Paraíba State at different time scales, and further multidisciplinary studies should be conducted to monitor these phenomena more accurately based on satellite data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]