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A fuzzy set extension known as the hesitant fuzzy set (HFS) has increased in popularity for decision making in recent years, especially when experts have had trouble evaluating several alternatives by employing a single value for assessment when working in a fuzzy environment. However, it has a significant problem in its uses, i.e., considerable data loss. The probabilistic hesitant fuzzy set (PHFS) has been proposed to improve the HFS. It provides probability values to the HFS and has the ability to retain more information than the HFS. Previously, fuzzy regression models such as the fuzzy linear regression model (FLRM) and hesitant fuzzy linear regression model were used for decision making; however, these models do not provide information about the distribution. To address this issue, we proposed a probabilistic hesitant fuzzy linear regression model (PHFLRM) that incorporates distribution information to account for multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. The PHFLRM observes the input–output (IPOP) variables as probabilistic hesitant fuzzy elements (PHFEs) and uses a linear programming model (LPM) to estimate the parameters. A case study is used to illustrate the proposed methodology. Additionally, an MCDM technique called the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is employed to compare the PHFLRM findings with those obtained using TOPSIS. Lastly, Spearman's rank correlation test assesses the statistical significance of two rankings sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Perceptual decision-making requires transforming sensory information into decisions. An ambiguity of sensory input affects perceptual decisions inducing specific time-frequency patterns on EEG (electroencephalogram) signals. This paper uses a wavelet-based method to analyze how ambiguity affects EEG features during a perceptual decision-making task. We observe that parietal and temporal beta-band wavelet power monotonically increases throughout the perceptual process. Ambiguity induces high frontal beta-band power at 0.3–0.6 s post-stimulus onset. It may reflect the increasing reliance on the top-down mechanisms to facilitate accumulating decision-relevant sensory features. Finally, this study analyzes the perceptual process using mixed within-trial and within-subject design. First, we found significant percept-related changes in each subject and then test their significance at the group level. Thus, observed beta-band biomarkers are pronounced in single EEG trials and may serve as control commands for brain-computer interface (BCI). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Just like any physical system, projects have entropy that must be managed by spending energy. The entropy is the project's tendency to move to a state of disorder (schedule delays, cost overruns), and the energy process is an inherent part of any project management methodology. In order to manage the inherent uncertainty of these projects, accurate estimates (for durations, costs, resources, ...) are crucial to make informed decisions. Without these estimates, managers have to fall back to their own intuition and experience, which are undoubtedly crucial for making decisions, but are are often subject to biases and hard to quantify. This paper builds further on two published calibration methods that aim to extract data from real projects and calibrate them to better estimate the parameters for the probability distributions of activity durations. Both methods rely on the lognormal distribution model to estimate uncertainty in activity durations and perform a sequence of statistical hypothesis tests that take the possible presence of two human biases into account. Based on these two existing methods, a new so-called statistical partitioning heuristic is presented that integrates the best elements of the two methods to further improve the accuracy of estimating the distribution of activity duration uncertainty. A computational experiment has been carried out on an empirical database of 83 empirical projects. The experiment shows that the new statistical partitioning method performs at least as good as, and often better than, the two existing calibration methods. The improvement will allow a better quantification of the activity duration uncertainty, which will eventually lead to a better prediction of the project schedule and more realistic expectations about the project outcomes. Consequently, the project manager will be able to better cope with the inherent uncertainty (entropy) of projects with a minimum managerial effort (energy). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]