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China has been the world's largest producer and consumer of paper products. In the context of the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals", China's papermaking industry which is traditionally a high energy-consuming and high-emissions industry, desperately needs a nationally appropriate low-carbon development path. From the consumption-side perspective, this paper calculates the CO2 emissions of China's papermaking industry from 2000 to 2019 by using carbon emission nuclear algorithm, grain-straw ratio, first-order attenuation method, and STIRFDT decomposition model, etc., to further explore the core stages and basic patterns affecting the industry's carbon peaking. The results show that the total CO2 emissions of China's papermaking industry showed an upward trend from 2000–2013, stable from 2013–2017, and a steady but slight decline from 2017–2019. Meanwhile, the total CO2 emissions of the full life cycle of paper products in China have decreased to a certain extent in the raw material acquisition, pulp, and paper making and shipping stages, with only the waste paper disposal stage showing a particular upward trend. We find that from 2000 to 2019, China's CO2 emissions in the pulping and papermaking stage of paper products accounted for 68% of the total emissions in the whole life cycle, of which 59% was caused by coal consumption. Moreover, the scenario prediction shows that improving the energy structure and increasing the waste paper recovery rate can reduce the CO2 emissions of the industry, and it is more significant when both work. Based on this and the four core stages of CO2 emissions of the papermaking industry we proposed ways to promote CO2 emissions peaking of China's paper products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the influence of the dual policies of sustainable economic development and the national dual-carbon target, the establishment of an environmental protection department for the treatment of heavily polluting industries is imminent, and the country has launched pollution control policies and regulations to restrict the emission rights of heavily polluting industries. Therefore, this paper focuses on whether the restriction of emission rights in key industries has reduced carbon emissions. To achieve this, this paper uses panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2019 and adopts a two-way fixed-effects DID model to systematically analyze the impact of the key pollution industry governance policies launched by the Ministry of Environmental Protection on CO2 emissions in 2017. And further analyze the role of variables such as green technology innovation patents and energy efficiency using this model, while parallel trend tests and placebo tests, and related policies are used to ensure the robustness of the regression results. This paper reveals that: (1) The heavy pollution industry governance policy implemented in 2017 can effectively reduce CO2 emissions in the cities of the treated group, and the effect is more significant in the year of policy implementation; (2) Green utility patents and energy-use efficiency are the effective mediating mechanisms to reduce CO2 emissions; (3) Over time, the effect of heavy pollution industry governance policy on CO2 emissions gradually decreases; (4) The reliability of the baseline regression results of this paper is proved by the use of parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and tests excluding the influence factors such as relevant policies in the same period. Therefore, the key polluting industries treatment policy launched by China's Ministry of Environmental Protection in 2017 under the recent dual-carbon policy development goals formulated by China, can effectively reduce carbon emissions; however, in the future economic development process, the government should give more consideration to the continuity of the policy impact and its coherence on economic development when implementing the policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2021, under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets of China, Shanghai declared that it would peak carbon emissions by 2025. This would require the formulation of specific and effective implementation paths of low-carbon development. This paper conducts a dynamic study on Shanghai's carbon dioxide emissions by establishing a system dynamic model of Shanghai's economy-energy-carbon emission. It studies the implementation path of Shanghai's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets by scenario analysis. The results show that under the Baseline Scenario, Shanghai's carbon emissions will peak by 2035, which is later than what the government promised. However, the Carbon-Peak and Deep-Low-Carbon Scenarios suggest that Shanghai can achieve the carbon peaking target in 2025, and the CO2 emission intensity will drop by 89.2% and 92.4%, respectively, by 2060. Improving the industrial energy utilization efficiency and the proportion of clean electricity is crucial for Shanghai to reduce carbon emissions. The transportation sector will become the main sector of urban energy consumption in the late stage of carbon neutralization. Without considering carbon sinks, the costs of achieving carbon neutrality for the three scenarios are approximately 5.68 billion, 2.79 billion and 1.96 billion USD, respectively. Finally, this paper puts forward relevant suggestions on promoting the transformation of energy structure, and strengthening specific emission reduction measures of various departments, to provide references for Shanghai's policy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2023, China's crude steel production amount reached 1.019 billion tons, and the energy consumption of China's steel industry amount reached 561 million tons of coal. China's steel industry, with its dominant reliance on coal for energy and the primary use of blast furnaces and converters in production processes, as well as its massive output, has become the main field for achieving China's "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality" goals. Firstly, this article summarizes the current production status of the steel industry and the situation of carbon emissions in the steel industry. Secondly, it discusses the dual-carbon policies based on the national and steel industry levels and outlines the future directions for China's steel industry. Subsequently, it analyzes the current state of research and application of mature and emerging low-carbon technology in China's steel industry and details the low-carbon plans of China's steel companies using the low-carbon technology roadmaps of two representative steel companies as examples. Finally, the article gives policy suggestions for the further carbon reduction of China's steel industry. The purpose of this paper is to show the efforts and contributions of China's steel industry to the early realization of its "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality" goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of digital technology provides new governance methods for achieving the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality". Since 2013, the pilot construction of smart cities in China has strengthened the government's digital governance capabilities and significantly influenced the reduction in carbon emissions. This paper provides empirical evidence for the driving effect of digitization on carbon emission reduction based on panel data from 353 cities in China. The results show that digital governance based on smart city construction pilots has significantly reduced regional carbon emissions, and the implementation of smart city construction pilots has reduced regional carbon emissions by an average of 6.6%, and this effect is sustainable over the long term. The increase in the level of digitalization has significantly promoted carbon emission reduction. From the perspective of the impact path, regional green patent innovation has played a significant partial intermediary effect in the process of digitization-driven carbon emission reduction. From a micro-mechanism standpoint, digitization plays a significant role in promoting the green innovation of high-polluting listed companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reasonable spatial layout of industries is crucial to carbon reduction and high-quality economic development. This paper establishes a research paradigm for optimizing the industrial spatial layout and high-quality development in the context of carbon peaking. Based on the perspectives of industrial transfer, the static agglomeration index, dynamic agglomeration index, industrial gradient coefficient, and low-carbon competitiveness index are used to analyze industrial agglomeration, competition status, and low-carbon competitiveness. Taking the Great Bend of the Yellow River (the Bend) as an example, we analyze the current situation in industrial development, guide the orderly transfer of industry, and optimize the spatial layout of industries to achieve high-quality economic development. The results show that resource- and capital-intensive industries have obvious advantages in agglomeration, competitive edge, and low-carbon competitiveness, while labor- and technology-intensive industries have weak advantages. The spatial layout of agglomerated industries was analyzed across four types of factor-intensive industries; these industries are the focus of industrial layout in the Bend. Promising industries were observed in all types of factor-intensive industries except capital-intensive industries, and these industries should be cultivated carefully in all provinces. Scale industries were mainly observed in resource- and capital-intensive industries; these industries should be transformed and upgraded to control the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions. The study's findings provide a basis for optimizing the spatial layout of industries and reducing carbon emissions through industrial transfer in the context of carbon peaking. The relevant industries should be transformed and upgraded to control the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing the carbon emission behavior of a regional integrated energy system (RIES) is crucial for aligning with carbon-peaking development strategies and ensuring compliance with carbon-peaking implementation pathways. This study focuses on a building cluster area in Shanghai, China, aiming to provide a comprehensive analysis from both macro and micro perspectives. From a macro viewpoint, an extended STIRPAT model, incorporating the environmental Kuznets curve, is proposed to predict the carbon-peaking trajectory in Shanghai. This approach yields carbon-peaking implementation pathways for three scenarios: rapid development, stable development, and green development, spanning the period of 2020–2040. At a micro scale, three distinct RIES system configurations—fossil, hybrid, and clean—are formulated based on the renewable energy penetration level. Utilizing a multi-objective optimization model, this study explores the carbon emission behavior of a RIES while adhering to carbon-peaking constraints. Four scenarios of carbon emission reduction policies are implemented, leveraging green certificates and carbon-trading mechanisms. Performance indicators, including carbon emissions, carbon intensity, and marginal emission reduction cost, are employed to scrutinize the carbon emission behavior of the cross-regional integrated energy system within the confines of carbon peaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the process of economic development, the consumption of energy leads to environmental pollution. Environmental pollution affects the sustainable development of the world, and therefore energy consumption needs to be controlled. To help China formulate sustainable development policies, this paper proposes an energy consumption forecasting model based on an improved whale algorithm optimizing a linear support vector regression machine. The model combines multiple optimization methods to overcome the shortcomings of traditional models. This effectively improves the forecasting performance. The results of the projection of China's future energy consumption data show that current policies are unable to achieve the carbon peak target. This result requires China to develop relevant policies, especially measures related to energy consumption factors, as soon as possible to ensure that China can achieve its peak carbon targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is an intrinsic requirement for sustainable development. The industrial structure primarily characterized by the chemical and energy industries poses a hindrance to the attainment of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in the provinces of the Yellow River Basin of China. Predicting the time of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and exploring the pathways of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is an urgent issue for the government to address. The STIRPAT and InVEST models were used for the carbon emissions and carbon sequestration estimation in the nine provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2060. The results show that the study area will realize carbon peaking in 2030 under the baseline scenario, with the carbon emission of 4146 million tons. Under the high-emission scenario, the study area will realize carbon peaking in 2035, with the carbon emission of 4372 million tons. Under the low-carbon energy-saving scenario, the study area will realize carbon peaking in 2025, with the carbon emission of 3909 million tons. The entire study area cannot achieve carbon neutrality in 2060 under the three scenarios. Under the baseline and high-emission scenarios, only Qinghai and Sichuan can realize carbon neutrality by 2060, and under the low-carbon energy-saving scenario, Sichuan, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu will achieve carbon neutrality on time. This research indicates that attaining carbon peaking and carbon neutrality can be accomplished by implementing strategies such as encouraging the growth of clean energy, managing energy usage, refining the industrial structure, and strengthening the ecosystem's carbon sink. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon emissions of the power industry account for over 50% of China's total carbon emissions, so achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the power sector is crucial. This study aims to simulate the impacts of three energy policies—carbon constraints, the development of a high proportion of renewable energy, and carbon trading—on China's energy transition, economic development, and the power sector's energy mix. Through the construction of a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for China and its integration with the SWITCH-China electricity model, the impact of diverse energy policies on China's energy transition, economic progress, and the power mix within the electricity industry has been simulated. The integration of the SWITCH-China model can address the limitations of the CGE model in providing a detailed understanding of the specific intricacies of the electricity sector. The results indicate that increasing the stringency of carbon restrictions compels a reduction in fossil energy use, controlling the output of coal-fired power units, and thereby reducing carbon emissions. The development of a high proportion of renewable energy enhances the cleanliness of the power sector's generation structure, further promoting the national energy transition. Implementing a carbon trading policy, where the entire industry shares the burden of carbon reduction costs, can effectively mitigate the economic losses of the power sector. Finally, the policies to further enhance the implementation of carbon trading policies, strengthen effective governmental regulation, and escalate the deployment of renewable energy sources are recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the guidance of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality", "ecological priority" and "green development" have become the popular consensus, and the financial regulatory level continuously guides financial institutions to increase investment in green and low carbon projects. In the field of green financial supervision in China, due to imperfect systems and poor adaptability, financial risks are often difficult to control within a reasonable range, which has had a significant impact on financial supervision and management. This article aimed to optimize the green financial regulatory information system under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Firstly, this article analyzed the concept and background of green finance regulation; then, an investigation was conducted on the construction of the green finance service information system, and a green finance information system supervision plan was established. Finally, data collection and analysis were conducted, and the supervision of the green finance information system was carried out using a standard genetic algorithm based on a fuzzy evaluation matrix. This article used a genetic algorithm to optimize the green financial regulatory information system, and selected 500 people to evaluate the use of the system before and after the optimization. The proportion of very satisfied people increased from 11.2% to 19.2%; the proportion of satisfied people increased from 17.2% to 37.6%; the proportion of people who were very dissatisfied decreased from 14.4% to 3.6%. The experiment in this article showed that the optimized system could operate more stably, and the process was more reasonable. The statistical analysis ability was significantly enhanced, and the functions were more comprehensive. This suggests that the system could better regulate the development of green finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increase in energy demand, environmental issues such as carbon emissions are becoming more and more prominent. China will scale its intended nationally determined contributions by adopting more vigorous policies and measures. China aims to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The current challenge and priority of China's high-quality development is to ensure a harmonious balance between the ecological environment and the economy. The South-to-North Water Diversion Project passes through Beijing, Tianjin, Henan, and Hebei, which were chosen as the study sites. The carbon emission data was from the China Carbon Emission Database 2000–2019. Decoupling modeling using statistical yearbook data from four provinces and municipalities. KMO and Bartlett's test used SPSS 27 software. The selection of indicators was based on relevance. Analyses were performed using the extended STIRPAT model and ridge regression. Moreover, projections of carbon peaks in the study area for 2020–2035 under different rates of change were simulated by the scenario analysis method. The results show that: (1) The decoupling analysis of the four provinces and cities from 2000-2019 gradually shifts to strong decoupling; (2) Resident population, energy structure, and secondary industry as a proportion of GDP significantly impact carbon emissions; (3) From 2000–2035, Beijing and Henan experienced carbon peaks. The peak time in Beijing was 96.836 million tons in 2010. The peak time in Henan was 654.1004 million tons in 2011; (4) There was no peak in Hebei from 2000–2035. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the changes in the spatial structure of China's economic development, urban clusters have become the primary carriers of China's regional economy and green growth. We used annual data from 2010 to 2021 to study the carbon emission characteristics and carbon reduction pathways of 36 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region. Firstly, based on the decoupling elasticity coefficient and carbon intensity index, the researchers divided the cities in the Yangtze River Delta into six types of carbon emissions. Then, the STIRPAT model was used to regress the panel data of different carbon emission types for 11 years, analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions, and develop differentiated carbon emission reduction paths for cities with six carbon emission types. According to the results, the cities of Type I need to accelerate low-carbon technology innovation; the cities of Type II need to improve energy efficiency and strengthen low-carbon technology research and development; the cities of Type V need to suppress foreign investment in high-energy consumption and high-emission projects in the local area; the cities of Type VI need to accelerate the process of new urbanization and optimize industrial structure. However, the researchers found that the cities of Types III and IV have not yet received effective emission reduction pathways, and their emission reduction policies and measures need to be further studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a designated national low-carbon pilot city, Nanjing faces the challenge of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions while experiencing rapid economic growth. This study developed a localized Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model specifically for Nanjing and constructed four different development scenarios. By utilizing the Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition, the Tapio decoupling elasticity coefficient, and comparing the emission reduction effects of individual measures and their cross-elasticity of carbon reduction, this study investigated the key factors and their carbon reduction path characteristics in Nanjing toward its carbon peak target by 2030. The results indicate that: (i) Nanjing could reach its peak carbon target of about 3.48 million tons by 2025 if carbon reduction measures are strengthened; (ii) The main elements influencing Nanjing's carbon peak include controlling industrial energy consumption, restructuring the industry, promoting the construction of a new power system, and developing green transportation; (iii) Controlling industrial energy consumption and changing industrial structure have a greater impact on reducing carbon emissions than other measures, and both have a synergistic effect. Therefore, Nanjing should prioritize these two strategies as the most effective methods to reduce carbon emissions. Additionally, to slow down the growth of urban carbon emissions, policies aimed at reducing the energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy consumption should be formulated. For instance, the integration and innovation of green industries within the city region, such as new energy vehicles, new energy materials, and big data, should be accelerated, and the proportion of clean energy consumption in urban areas should be increased. The LEAP (Nanjing) model has successfully explored Nanjing's low-carbon pathway and provided policy guidance for the optimal transformation of industrial cities and early carbon peaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A study linking the two economic and social phenomena of rural labor force migration and energy transition can help analyze the underlying causes of rural "Energy Poverty". However, how off-farm employment affects household low-carbon energy consumption and its potential mechanisms requires further research. Using 1351 sampled rural households from the "Rural Energy, Population Transfer and Well-being" survey in 2018 and 2021 to explore response mechanisms through which off-farm employment can influence low-carbon energy intensity. Utilizing the multivariate regression, Sobel test, and moderating effect test, the results demonstrate that off-farm employment, including short-term and long-term off-farm employment, significantly increases the intensity of low-carbon energy use among rural households. Specifically, long-term off-farm employment tends to have a greater positive contribution to the low-carbon energy intensity than short-term off-farm employment. Furthermore, off-farm employment can affect household low-carbon energy intensity through the total income, and effect of the surrounding people in the off-farm employment process also increases their consumption intensity. The research reveals that the rural energy revolution under the constraints of "Carbon Neutral" and "Carbon Peak" should relate to the off-farm development of rural households to achieve "Precise Energy Poverty Alleviation". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With concerns about global warming and energy security, people are reducing fossil fuel use and turning to clean energy technologies. Mineral resources are used as materials for various energy technologies, and with the development of clean energy technologies, the demand for mineral resources will increase. China is a large country with various mineral resources, but its structural supply problem is severe. For China to reach the targets of carbon peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, they have set specific milestones for developing each clean energy industry; thus, the demand for mineral resources in clean energy will increase. We first summarise the mineral resources supply for China's development of clean energy technologies. We analyse the demand for various mineral resources in specific clean energy technology sectors under the stated policies scenario and sustainable development scenario through scenario setting. Finally, we combine current domestic mineral resource reserves and overseas import channels to analyse China's mineral resource supply and demand for developing the clean energy industry. Our results show that the surge in clean energy generation and electric vehicle ownership in China between 2020 and 2050 will lead to a significant increase in demand for mineral resources for these technologies and a shortage in the supply of some mineral resources. In particular, the supply of copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium will be a severe constraint for clean energy development. We also find that secondary recycling of power battery materials in the electric vehicle sector could alleviate China's resource constraints. The findings of our study provide a better understanding of the kinds of mineral elements that are in short supply on the path of clean energy development in China under carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets and the future channels that can be used to increase the supply of minerals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenhouse gas emissions in China have been increasing in line with its energy consumption and economic growth. Major means for energy-related greenhouse gases mitigation in the foreseeable future are transition to less carbon intensive energy supplies and structural changes in energy consumption. In this paper, a bottom-up model is built to examine typical projected scenarios for energy supply and demand, with which trends of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 can be analyzed. Results show that low-carbon technologies remain essential contributors to reducing emissions and altering emissions trends up to 2050. By pushing the limit of current practicality, emissions reduction can reach 20 to 28 percent and the advent of carbon peaking could shift from 2040 to 2030. In addition, the effect of electrification at end-use sectors is studied. Results show that electrifying transport could reduce emissions and bring the advent of carbon peaking forward, but the effect is less significant compared with low-carbon technologies. Moreover, it implies the importance of decarbonizing power supply before electrifying end-use sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the continuous increase in the number of vehicles, the proportion of carbon emissions from road traffic in cities has significantly increased, putting pressure on the overall carbon emission reduction of cities The implementation of low-carbon transportation has, therefore, become crucial to urban emission reductions. Based on the situation of vehicles in Chengdu, this study uses the LEAP model to construct a road traffic development scenario in Chengdu from 2020 to 2025. The research focuses on common greenhouse gases that contribute to carbon emissions such as CO2, N2O, and CH4 from motor vehicles. With current policies being considered, we simulate and evaluate energy consumption and carbon emissions under two energy-saving and emission reduction scenarios: low carbon (LC) and strengthen low carbon (SLC). The results show that carbon emissions significantly improve under the LC scenario, and that the carbon emissions of the road traffic of Chengdu will peak before 2030 under the SLC scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]