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Background: Paternal incarceration is a well-known risk factor for poor child outcomes. Although existing research documents the prevalence of paternal incarceration and racial/ethnic disparities in this risk, research in this area is still sorely limited in two ways. First, the range of groups for which we know the cumulative risk of paternal incarceration is still quite narrow. Second, no research has decomposed disparities in the risk of paternal incarceration into analytically distinct components. Objective: To estimate and explain ethnic disparities in paternal incarceration risk in Denmark. Methods: We use Danish administrative data and two core demographic techniques. First, we use birth cohort life tables to estimate country of origin-specific paternal incarceration risks for native Danes, Western descendants of immigrants, and ten groups of non-Western descendants of immigrants. Second, we conduct Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions to see how three factors - paternal employment, education, and previous criminal justice contact - shape these risks. Results: We find that descendants of immigrants are much more likely to experience paternal incarceration than native Danes, but that there is substantial heterogeneity across country of origin. Additionally, we find that for most countries the observed disparities in paternal incarceration risk can be almost entirely explained by group differences in paternal employment, education, and previous criminal justice contact. Contribution: By using two core demographic techniques we provide insight into how future research on paternal incarceration and other risk factors for poor child well-being could better estimate and explain the risk of experiencing these events.

Background: Research indicates that both full- and half-siblingships develop enduring social relationships, if the siblings have the opportunity to interact during childhood and adolescence. Objective: To estimate: (1) how much time half- and full-siblings are exposed to each other during childhood and adolescence; (2) how half-sibling exposure is conditional on birth spacing and residency; and (3) how parents' social vulnerability is associated with different levels of lifetime exposure to half-siblings. Methods: Swedish register data is used to calculate exposure to half-siblings based on birth spacing and registered residency for all full- and half-siblings in the 1994 birth cohort. Results: A substantive share of half-siblings are less exposed to each other due to lengthy birth spacing and residency patterns. By age 18, 26Š of the birth cohort have had a half-sibling who is also no older than 18 for at least one year; 13Š of the birth cohort have had a half-sibling who is no older than 18 for up to 10 years; 8Š of the birth cohort have been registered in the same dwelling as another half-sibling for eight years or more. Parents' social vulnerability does not predict exposure to halfsiblings among the population that has at least one half-sibling by age 18. Conclusions: Even though half-siblings constitute a large share of all siblings, full-siblings will likely make up the vast majority of the siblingship-like relationships because so many halfsiblings are unable to interact during childhood or adolescence due to extensive age differences and/or because they do not coreside. Contribution: This study quantifies the role of birth spacing and residency patterns for the exposure to full and half siblings across childhood. It highlights the benefits of including a population perspective for understanding full and half sibling social relationships.

Background: Previous studies have shown that the distribution of older people by living arrangement has changed and that old-age mortality differs by living arrangement. However, how these changes affect the total number of deaths has not been investigated. Objective: Our aim is to differentiate the effects on mortality of the change in the distribution of the population and the change in mortality rates associated with each type of living arrangement. Methods: Continuous observation of the population aged 60 and older for the period 1991-2012 in Belgium provides a unique opportunity to analyze changes in the population and in mortality by living arrangement. A simple decomposition method is used to examine to what extent these changes have influenced the total number of deaths. Results: The distribution of the population by living arrangement and the age-standardised mortality rates by living arrangement have changed remarkably. The overall effects of these changes on the total number of deaths offset each other, whereas the distribution of the number of deaths by living arrangement displays a large variation. Conclusions: This paper shows important changes in the distribution of the population and in mortality rates by living arrangement but only limited change in the total number of deaths. An important change occurred in the distribution of the population by their last living arrangement before death. Contribution: This paper highlights long-term trends in population and mortality rates by living arrangement in older age and also the distribution of the last living arrangement before death, which has important implications concerning care of the most elderly.

espanolEste trabajo investiga medidas alternativas de esperanza de vida que tienen en cuenta aspectos distributivos en relacion a la duracion de la vida en la generacion de una tabla de vida de periodo. La practica totalidad de la literatura que estudio la desigualdad en el tiempo de vida utiliza el instrumental derivado de la medicion de la desigualdad en la distribucion de la renta, centrandose en la esperanza de vida y la desigualdad como aspectos separados, aunque relacionados. El trabajo propone un marco alternativo integrado que permite combinar ambas dimensiones en un unico indice, y proporciona una derivacion axiomatica que conduce a una familia concreta de indices. Los indices propuestos se ilustran con una aplicacion a partir de la Human Mortality Database. EnglishThis paper investigates alternative measures of life expectancy that take into account distributional considerations in the length of life of the generation in a period life table. Virtually all the literature studying inequality in the length of life distribution has used inequality tools from the income distribution analysis, focusing on life expectancy and inequality as separate, albeit related, issues. We propose an alternative, integrated framework that allows us to combine both dimensions in a single index, and provide an axiomatic derivation that delivers the particular indexes to be used given a set of axioms. We illustrate the proposed index using data from the Human Mortality Database.

Background: Recent years have witnessed a surge in studies that examine the education and health consequences of parental migration on children. Most studies focus on the short-term consequences and there is an urgent need to study the long-term consequences. Objective: Capitalizing on a unique survey in China, we aim to study the lasting educational and health consequences of parental migration on children. Methods: We measure respondents' experiences of being left behind during different stages of life, namely prior to elementary school, during elementary school, and during middle school. Among people who have experienced being left behind, we further classify the experience into several categories such as left behind with grandparents and left behind with others. We estimate a variety of regression models taking into account respondents' different living arrangements when growing up. Results: We find that being left behind with grandparents during the elementary school stage compromises educational attainment. Individuals who were left behind with others during primary school were more likely to have poor self-rated and mental health at the time of the survey. The long-term educational and health consequences of parental migration raise new concerns for today's left-behind children. Conclusions: We show that parental migration, especially during elementary school years, is likely to have long term consequences for children's educational and health outcomes. Contribution: We show that parental migration has long-term consequences for children's educational and health outcomes.

Background: Although the Chinese education system has seen massive improvements over the past few decades, there are still large academic achievement gaps between rural and urban areas that threaten China's long-term development. In addition, recent literature underscores the importance of early childhood development (ECD) in later-life human capital development. Objective: We analyze the life cycle of cognitive development and learning outcomes in rural Chinese children by first exploring whether ECD outcomes affect cognition levels, then determining whether cognitive delays persist as children grow, and finally examining connections between cognition and education outcomes. Methods: We combine data from four recent studies that examine different age groups (0-3, 4-5, 10-11, 13-14) to track cognitive outcomes. Results: First, we find that ECD outcomes for children in rural China are poor, with almost one in two children who are cognitively delayed. Second, we find that these cognitive delays seem to persist into middle school, with almost 37Š of rural junior high school students who are cognitively delayed. Finally, we show that cognition has a close relationship to academic achievement. Conclusions: Our results suggest that urban-rural gaps in academic achievement originate at least in part from differences in ECD outcomes. Contribution: Although many papers have analyzed ECD, human capital, and inequality separately, this is the first paper to explicitly connect and combine these topics to analyze the life cycle of cognitive development in the context of rural China.

Background: The economic reforms of the last thirty years have produced a dramatic improvement in the standard of living in China. However, the concurrent social transformation has also created both stresses and challenges for Chinese families. While researchers have paid considerable attention to the headline demographic statistics accompanying these economic and social transformations, the nuanced ways in which Chinese society has changed and continues to change since the reforms are less understood. Contribution: This special collection uses the life course framework, which has emerged as an important organizing concept within demographic studies, to examine constancy and change in Chinese society since the reforms of the late 1990s. By framing life events as the result of decisions that are influenced by and sometimes are direct responses to China's modernization, and investigating how these decisions collectively affect and reshape Chinese society, the papers in this collection provide a rich way of interpreting and understanding demographic changes in China.

Background: Studies in previous decades have shown that patterns of intergenerational coresidence in China have been diminishing. However, few studies have documented the level of intergenerational coresidence for a wide range of ages. Furthermore, most studies on the topic are based on data collected more than 10 years ago. Objective: In this study, we document the intergenerational coresidence patterns of a wide range of ages, from 25 to 60, in urban China. We employ updated national data collected in 2013 that covers 2,585 counties in China. Methods: We conducted three sets of analysis. The first set includes all cases. For the second set, we kept cases with at least one parent living in the same city and conducted the same analysis as in the first set. The dependent variable of these two sets of analysis is whether the adult child coresides with at least one parent. The third set includes only those adult children who do not live with their parents. We explore the probability of adult children at different ages living in the same city as their parents. Results: There is a U-shaped relationship between the age of adult children and the predicted probability of coresidence with parents. The predicted probability of intergenerational coresidence is higher among younger and older adult children, although it remains low at all ages. More importantly, among those living separately, we found a positive linear relationship between the age of the adult child and the predicted probability of living in the same city. Contribution: The findings suggest that coresidence of parents and adult children is no longer a dominant intergenerational living arrangement pattern in urban China. Living separately but close has become a dominant pattern.

Background: In Uruguay, the recent phase of fertility decline started in the late 1990s, a decade after deep changes in the family dynamics took root in the country. The order and timing of the two phenomena gave weight to the notion that the changes in the family dynamics caused fertility to drop below population replacement level. Objective: Our goal is to assess whether or not separation, divorce, and repartnering have been related to the recent decrease in fertility in Uruguay. Methods: We use data from a retrospective survey and a three-pronged strategy: (1) we compare the contribution to fertility and its evolution across cohorts of three broad steps of the conjugal history; (2) we estimate the effect of each of these steps on the hazard of having the next child; (3) we predict and compare the fertility, actual and counterfactual, of women who ended and women who did not end their first union. We investigate especially how union dissolution affects fertility and how patterns vary by educational levels. Results: Ending the first union reduces the fertility of Uruguayan women, and this reduction was larger among the low-educated women from the oldest cohort than it is in the youngest one. It could be very small among the highly educated of the youngest cohort. Contribution: We show that among Uruguayan women, the negative effect of union dissolution on fertility seems to decrease as dissolution becomes more common and occurs earlier, and that changes in family dynamics likely did not cause fertility to drop below population replacement level.

Background: The fertility transition started later in sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions of the world. Moreover, the average number of children per woman declined more slowly there, owing to a distinct mechanism of fertility reduction. It has been argued that the fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa proceeded through an increase in birth intervals rather than by a limitation of the number of births. Objective: We analyze the fertility transitions in 29 countries to determine which mechanism women resort to in order to reduce their number of children. Methods: Using multiple sample surveys, we estimate and cross-validate trends in parity progression ratios and birth intervals. We identify sub-regional regularities and vanguard trends in the interplay between the dynamics of the lengthening of birth intervals and birth limitation over the period 1962‒2012. Results: While initial fertility declines were driven by a lengthening of birth intervals at all parities, we observe a recent onset of birth limitation in regions and countries that are most advanced in the fertility transition. Conclusions: The experience of sub-Saharan Africa shows that if all parities contribute to the fertility transition from the outset, the main drivers of the fertility decline switch from a lengthening of birth intervals to a limitation of family size when the average fertility reaches about five children per woman. Contribution: Our findings point to the emergence of birth limitation as a new stage in the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. These results have implications for future fertility declines in sub-Saharan Africa.

Background: In post-Soviet countries, low fertility has been achieved through postponement of second birth, while entrance into parenthood still takes place relatively early in life and within marriage. Studies suggest that grandparental support with childcare drives this reproductive behaviour. However, we still know little about the exact way in which decisions about first parenthood are shaped by family relationships, especially with respect to the expected and actual support they exert. Objective: This paper explores how family relationships - spousal and intergenerational - influenced decisions to enter parenthood in Ukraine between 1950 and 1975, when fertility there declined below the replacement level for the first time. Methods: A total of 66 qualitative life-history interviews were conducted with women and men from the Ukrainian cities of Lviv (west) and Kharkiv (east); age-specific fertility rates and the total fertility rate in 1960 were measured for the two provinces. Results: The informants shared their notions about the right timing for first parenthood, which parents(-in-law) helped them to navigate. This guidance, in turn, created expectations about the provision of help with childcare, which facilitated a feeling of security when entering parenthood in economically insecure circumstances, which are defined as perceived security. The actual provision of childcare by parents(-in-law), however, was contingent on spousal relationships, which differed between the two cities. These differences are important for understanding postponement of second birth and regional variation in achieving low fertility in Ukraine. Contribution: The study argues that perceived security - guided by specific intergenerational and spousal relationships - is crucial for understanding universal and relatively early entrance into parenthood in Ukraine.

Background: Ternary plots can effectively display compositional data and help to understand its multidimensional patterns. However, they are currently greatly underused in demography. Objective: My goal is to develop an interactive web-based visualization of compositional data on international migration flows in order to compare its developments over time and across countries, and through this example demonstrate the utility of ternary diagrams. Methods: R Shiny framework is used to build a web application. Immigration and emigration flows in the EU Member States from 1998 to 2015 are grouped into three conventional categories (nationals of a reporting country, [other] EU nationals, and non-EU nationals) and presented on ternary diagrams. Results: Compositional data on migration flows can be effectively visualized using ternary plots. An interactive web application has been developed that allows comparative exploratory analysis of immigration and emigration composition and size in the EU countries over time. The impact of the entry of new countries to the EU can be assessed by comparing data referring to the EU composition of 28 Member States with data referring to the EU composition of the reference period. Conclusions: Ternary plots can facilitate compositional analysis of migration flows grouped into three categories. Contribution: I introduce ternary plots for an exploratory analysis of migration composition and provide an online tool to carry out illustrative exploration. Demographic analysis of compositional data can benefit from the wider use of such plots.

Background: The Human Fertility Database (HFD) and Human Fertility Collection (HFC) provide disaggregated data on age-specific fertility rates for 45 countries. These sources offer the opportunity to learn about the development of different pathways of transition to low fertility both within and between countries. Objective: The aim of this paper is to use composite fertility lattice plots, which combine information from different visualization techniques of the Lexis surface, namely level plots and contour plots, to explore changes in age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and the implied (period-based) cumulative cohort fertility rates (cumulative pseudo cohort fertility rates, CPCFRs) across countries and geographic regions. Methods: Through key examples we introduce a new refinement of the Lexis surface, combining level plots, which use colour/shade to indicate ASFRs, and contour lines to indicate fertility milestones for given cohorts (CPCFRs). We have also developed a web-based app to allow researchers to produce their own fertility Lexis surfaces. Results: Results show that once countries have fallen below a replacement fertility level, they tend to not return to it. Exceptions are Norway and the United States, which saw rising fertility rates for cohorts born after the 1950s and late 1960s respectively. The age-specific fertility trends, as well as broader political and socioeconomic conditions, are very different in these countries, suggesting different paths by which replacement fertility rates might be achieved. Contribution: Complex data visualizations show, in an intuitive way, how ASFRs are related to successive cohorts' fertility milestones (CPCFRs). Combining this information enables us to explore differences between countries and can make an important contribution to comparative fertility research.

Background: Education expansion has contributed significantly to fertility decline during the worldwide fertility transition. Yet, it is less clear whether the educational gradient in fertility remains stable and persists in the post-transition era. In light of the rapid education expansion in many low-fertility countries, the education-fertility nexus becomes increasingly relevant to demographic and socioeconomic prospects. Objective: In this study we investigate the education-fertility relationship in China by focusing on its robustness in different socio-institutional contexts both during and after the demographic transition. Methods: We use the cohort parity progression ratios (PPRs) to unveil women's reproduction progress over the life course. The PPRs are estimated for each educational group, jointly classified by cohort, period, place of residence, and province, using China's census and mini-census data between 1982 and 2015. We fit multilevel models to investigate the education-fertility relationship and to explore its temporal and contextual variation. Results: We find strong empirical support for a negative association between women's education and each of the successive PPRs in China, both during and after the course of fertility transition. Nevertheless, the strength of the relationship changes over time, particularly for second and higher order births. The education-fertility link also varies profoundly by contextual features. Contribution: This study extends the literature by exploring the potential dynamics and structural variation of the education-fertility link from demographically transitional to post-transition China. The results provide a panoramic picture of fertility change in China, and insights that lead to a better understanding of world population prospects in the post-transition era.

Background: In the wake of aging societies, pro-natalist policies have been used around the world to promote childbearing in developed countries. Very little research investigates the causal effect of the Australian government's baby bonus policy as a once-off, non-means tested incentive scheme on the observed individual fertility. Objective: We investigate the role of immigration in raising fertility beyond what could be achieved by the Australian-born population. The impact of this policy is heavily reliant on the effectiveness of monetary incentives in boosting fertility, yet it is not clear who drives this effect. Methods: We utilize triple difference-in-difference (DDD) strategy to evaluate the relationship between childbearing and introduction of the baby bonus in a quasi-experimental setting. We evaluate the quasi-experimental setting by using propensity score matching. Results: Our findings highlight the role of immigrant women in driving the success of the policy. Moreover, the impact is found to be highest among immigrant women with low levels of human capital, which diminishes with age. Conclusions: The results imply that the role of immigrants, especially that of a young workforce, in aging societies may be greater than has been previously attributed. Contribution: This paper not only provides scope for the analysis of pro-natal policies within the context of Australia but investigates its impact on immigrant women vis-à-vis native-born women. We find the immigrant contribution to be significant in driving the success of pro-natal monetary incentives. Australia is an exemplar for this analysis due to early adoption of pro-natalist incentives for childbearing amidst a population with high immigrant concentration.

Background: Some formal demographic models describe mortality improvement in terms of averted deaths. In such models individuals who would have died in an earlier regime are instead revived and returned to the population to face the same age-specific mortality risks as the rest of the population. A closely related literature has examined inequality in terms of the number of years of potential life that are lost to deaths. Objective: The paper combines several results from formal demography to illustrate the potential gains in life lived from a sequence of revivals, in which everyone is revived 0, 1, 2,. . . times. Contribution: Mathematical analysis yields two new results: A generalization of Vaupel and Canudas-Romo's e† index to second and higher-order revivals, and an analytical expression that relates gains from revivals to the covariance of remaining life expectancy and cumulative mortality.

Background: Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced relatively high population growth, which raises concerns about the potential contribution of large young cohorts, termed 'youth bulges', to unrest. Youth bulges, under the right circumstances, can expand productivity and boost economic growth, but they have also been found to enable civil war, corruption, and democracy collapse, especially where resources are scarce. Objective: This paper considers youth bulges characterised by high proportions of rural‒urban migrants and examines their effects on the likelihood of social conflict in urban sub-Saharan Africa between 1990 and 2013. Methods: United Nations data on urban and rural populations by age and sex is combined with the Social Conflict Analysis Database to create a cross-section time series dataset. Negative binomial models are used to examine the relationship between youth bulges and conflict using country level fixed effects. Results: The study finds that a migrant-based youth bulge does not increase the likelihood of urban social conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, female youth bulges, often neglected when studying conflict, are found to increase the likelihood of conflict. Conclusions: The overall disassociation between young rural‒urban migrants and social conflict is encouraging. All the same, women were found to play a role in conflict, and women should therefore be considered in future studies. Contribution: This article characterises the composition of youth bulges - an important factor that has previously been ignored ‒ by examining whether youth bulges composed largely of rural‒urban migrants are more likely to increase the likelihood of conflict in urban sub-Saharan Africa.

Background: A body of evidence suggests that vaccines support the development of the immune system and also improve overall health. Objective: To study the effect of the complete basic vaccination schedule (Bacille Calmette-Guérin, i.e., BCG; measles; polio 3; and Diphtheria, Tetanus toxoids, and Pertussis, i.e., DTP3) on nutritional status of children under 2 years of age. Methods: Recent DHS data from 16 countries conducted after 2013 were used. After a bivariate descriptive analysis, a logistic regression analysis was conducted to predict the likelihood of underweight, stunting, and wasting by immunization status. A combined odds ratio was computed and adjusted for background variables. Results: A significantly higher prevalence of underweight was found among children with incomplete vaccination schedules in seven countries. Similarly, wasting and stunting were frequently observed in under-vaccinated children in four countries. Moreover, logistic regression adjusted for background variables revealed a relation between incomplete vaccination and underweight in Angola, Chad, and Guatemala (95Š CI lower bound > 1). Combining data of all countries, underweight (adjusted Odds Ratio, aOR 1.21, 95Š CI 1.11‒1.31), wasting (aOR 1.18, 95Š CI 1.05‒1.33), and stunting (aOR 1.07, 95Š CI 1.00‒1.14) were associated with poor vaccination status. The overall effect was consistent with both sexes except the results for wasting for females and stunting for males, though insignificant. Contribution: To our knowledge, this is the first paper assessing the relation between vaccination and nutritional status at a multi-country level with a huge dataset. Our analysis suggests a poor nutritional status in children with an incomplete vaccination schedule.

Background: Because living arrangements have many implications for the well-being of older adults, knowledge regarding typical age-related developmental changes in living arrangements is of a major concern for public health policymakers, particularly in low- and middle-income countries dealing with growing aging populations. However, the much-needed empirical analysis of living arrangement dynamics is hindered by a lack of proper data. Objective: To exploit often-available short-term longitudinal data in the study of long-term phenomena, in this paper we accelerate the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) panel as a means to explore, over a broad age span, the household dynamics of Mexican older adults. Methods: Instead of working with a priori definitions of different household structures when analyzing transitions between them, we introduce a novel approach that estimates latent classes of developmental trends in the household composition of older people as they age. Results: We show how accelerated longitudinal designs, coupled with latent class analysis, can offer new insights into living arrangement dynamics. Our findings suggest that in Mexico the typical living arrangements at 50 years old serve as an important predictor of future living arrangements, and that typical living-arrangement trajectories are strongly gendered in Mexico. This new approach may prove to be indispensible when determining the social support needed by high-risk population groups and as a means to better anticipate the necessary financial resources to do so. Contribution: We show a new approach to the empirical analysis of living arrangement dynamics that overcomes some methodological limitations previously encountered.

BACKGROUND Conventional studies of intergenerational social reproduction are based on a retrospective design, sampling adults and linking their status to that of their parents. This approach yields conditional estimates of intergenerational relationships. Recent studies have taken a prospective approach, following a birth cohort forward to examine how it is socially reproduced. This permits the estimation of relationships of social reproduction that do not condition on the existence of at least one child. OBJECTIVE We examine whether the relationship between conditional and unconditional estimates found for the United States and Great Britain also holds for a diverse range of European countries. METHODS We examine educational reproduction among men and women born 1930-1950 in 12 countries using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and compare unconditional and conditional estimates. RESULTS We find striking similarities in the relationship between unconditional and conditional estimates throughout Europe. Among women, the difference between conditional and unconditional estimates generally increased with education. Women with more education were less likely to reproduce themselves educationally because they were less likely to marry. The educational gradient, in terms of the probability of having a child who attained a tertiary degree, was more pronounced in the South and East of Europe than in the North and West. CONCLUSIONS The gap between conditional and unconditional estimates indicates that the more common retrospective approach tends to overstate the extent of educational reproduction. CONTRIBUTION This is the first comparative study adopting a prospective approach to intergenerational social reproduction. Funding Agencies|John Fell Oxford University Press (OUP) Research Fund; Swedish Research CouncilSwedish Research Council [DNR 445-2013-7681, DNR 340-2013-5460]; European CommissionEuropean Commission Joint Research Centre [QLK6-CT-2001-00360, SHARE-I3: RII-CT-2006-062193, COMPARE: CIT5-CT-2005-028857, SHARELIFE: CIT4-CT-2006-028812, 211909, 227822, 261982]; German Ministry of Education and ResearchFederal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF); Max Planck SocietyMax Planck SocietyFoundation CELLEX; US National Institute on AgingUnited States Department of Health & Human ServicesNational Institutes of Health (NIH) - USANIH National Institute on Aging (NIA) [U01_AG09740-13S2, P01_AG005842, P01_AG08291, P30_AG12815, R21_AG025169, Y1-AG-4553-01, IAG_BSR06-11, OGHA_04-064, HHSN271201300071C]

Background: Most previous research on intergenerational impacts on childbearing behaviors has overlooked the interrelation between having siblings and the availability of childcare assistance provided by grandparents. Objective: This study examines how the siblings of young couples dilute the resources of grandparental childcare assistance and thus influence a mother's plans to have a second child in urban China. Methods: We use data from the survey on Fertility Decision-Making Processes in Chinese Families conducted in 2016 and focus on the subsample of mothers who have only one child and live in urban areas. Results: The husband's parents are less likely to take care of grandchildren if the husband has male siblings, while the probability will be higher if the wife has male siblings. The chance of receiving childcare support from the wife's parents is also associated with the sibship status of both wife and husband. The results suggest that the decision regarding primary childcare providers might be made collectively within extended families. Under the two-child policy, childcare support from parents or in-laws in raising the first child increases the probability of a mother planning a second child. Furthermore, the positive effect of childcare support from the husband's parents is lessened if the husband has siblings. Contribution: This article tests the resource-dilution model in adulthood by examining the association between grandparental childcare assistance and young couples' sibship status. Siblings may compete for grandparental childcare support and thus reduce the positive influence of grandparental childcare assistance on a mother's plans for another child.

Background: The cross-sectional association between female employment and fertility across developed countries turned from negative to positive during the mid-1980s. The conventional view is that the observed positive association is spurious owing to country-specific heterogeneity. Objective: We revisit the validity of this view using recent data up to 2017 from 24 countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Methods: Based on the data downloaded from the OECD database, we estimate the time-series association between the female labor force participation rate (FLFP) and total fertility rate (TFR) by fixed-effects regression models, which can control for country-specific heterogeneity. Results: The more recent the data set used, the more likely it is that the time-series correlation will be positive between FLFP and TFR, even after controlling for country-specific heterogeneity. We also observe that public spending on families, especially in the form of benefits in kind, starts increasing once FLFP becomes sufficiently high. Conclusions: A positive correlation between female employment and fertility in developed countries is no longer attributable to country-specific heterogeneity. The results are supportive of the view that higher female employment can make socioinstitutional contexts more favorable for childbearing, leading to a positive association between FLFP and TFR. Contribution: This study underscored the need for further investigation of the association between female employment and fertility, which is likely to have changed in recent decades.

Background: This submission for a Special Collection is based on a selection of contributions to the International Seminar 'Children and family dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa', held in Paris in October 2016 (http://slam.site.ined.fr/en/DyPE/seminar/). Objective: The special issue focuses on family environment and child socialization in sub-Saharan Africa. A main challenge is to go beyond the traditional family-network approach, centred on the household and the biological parents, and to consider the diversity of contexts and players involved in a child's upbringing.

Background: Different ways to forecast mortality have been suggested, with many forecasting models based on the extrapolation of age-specific death rates. Recent studies, however, have looked into forecasting models based on other mortality indicators, such as life expectancy or life table deaths. Objective: Here we ask, what are the implications of choosing one indicator over another to forecast mortality? Methods: We compare five extrapolative models based on different life table statistics: death rates, death probabilities, survival probabilities, life table deaths, and life expectancy at birth. We show the consequences of using a specific indicator for the forecast results by looking into time changes in the indicators produced by the models. Results: The results show that forecasting based on death rates and probabilities of death leads to more pessimistic forecasts than using survival probabilities, life table deaths, and life expectancy when applying existing models based on linear extrapolation of (transformed) indicators. Contribution: The paper raises awareness that the use of a specific life table statistic as input for mortality forecasting has a significant impact on the forecast results.

Background: Mortality can be forecast by means of parametric models, principal component methods, and smoothing approaches. These methods either impose rigid modeling structures or produce implausible outcomes. Objective: We propose a novel approach for forecasting mortality that combines a well established smoothing model and prior demographic information. We constrain future smooth mortality patterns to lie within a range of valid age profiles and time trends, both computed from observed patterns. Methods: Within a P-spline framework, we enforce shape constraints through an asymmetric penalty approach on forecast mortality. Moreover, we properly integrate infant mortality in a smoothing framework so that the mortality forecast covers the whole age range. Results: The proposed model outperforms the plain smoothing approach as well as commonly used methodologies while retaining all the desirable properties that demographers expect from a forecasting method, e.g., smooth and plausible age profiles and time trends. We illustrate the proposed approach to mortality data for Danish females and US males. Conclusions: The proposed methodology offers a new paradigm in forecasting mortality, and it is an ideal balance between pure statistical methodology and traditional demographic models. Prior knowledge about mortality development can be conveniently included in the approach, leading to large flexibility. The combination of powerful statistical methodology and prior demographic information makes the proposed model suitable for forecasting mortality in most demographic scenarios. Contribution: The proposed methodology offers a new paradigm in forecasting mortality and it is an ideal balance between pure statistical methodology and traditional demographic models. Prior knowledge about mortality development can be conveniently included in the approach, leading to large flexibility. The combination of powerful statistical methodology and prior demographic information makes the proposed model suitable for forecasting mortality in most demographic scenarios.

Background: Previous research suggested that husbands’ participation in housework is positively associated with fertility choices for both women and men. We tested this association by using data of four East Asian countries.Objective: This paper examines whether the positive association between gender-equal sharing of housework participation and fertility intention in China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan has strengthened between 2006 and 2012.Methods: We harmonize two datasets, the 2006 East Asian Social Survey and the 2012 International Social Survey Programme. We employ OLS and ordered logit models estimators to test the association between husband’s housework participation and the ideal number of children.Results: In both 2006 and 2012, husband’s participation in housework is associated with both own and partner’s fertility intentions in 2006 and 2012. The association between the domestic division of labour and fertility has not changed between 2006 and 2012.Conclusions: Corroborating the findings of our earlier paper the results suggest that a more gender-equal domestic division of labour in East Asia is associated with higher fertility intentions in this region. The gender revolution framework offers a plausible explanation for the East Asian fertility trends between 2006 and 2012. The findings suggest that there is a stall in the pace of the gender revolution.Contribution: This paper provides a summary of the trends highlighted by the contributors to this special issue. This is also the first paper to look at the evolution of domestic division of labour and fertility preferences in four East Asian countries over time.

Background: Urbanization has been regarded as a strategic process to alleviate rural poverty, support local economic growth, and facilitate national sustainable development in China. Scholars have long realized that urbanization is a comprehensive process that can be understood through studies of population migration among places where population flows occur. Objective: Place attractivity is a concept derived from the place interaction model, which measures the ability for urban areas to attract migrants, hence the "ability" of urbanization. By studying the spatial patterns of China's place attractivity, the study attempts to depict the current migration and urbanization dynamics in China and support sustainable urbanization strategies in China. Methods: The Relative Intrinsic Attractivity (RIA) index provides an excellent quantification strategy to measure place attractivity. With data obtained at the prefecture level from China's 2005 1Š census sampling survey (the most recent of such data), the study calculated RIA for each prefecture units and various population groups. Results: The results suggest that cities in central China have the lowest place attractivity. There is a diverging trend of China's place attractivity with a rather unbalanced urban system development. Cities of different sizes have a different place attractivity, with large cities having the highest attractivity. A city's attractivity also varies between population groups. Contribution: The study suggests from a place attractivity perspective that urbanization in China requires careful coordination and planning. The top priority for China's urbanization is to devise relevant policies and support rational and sustainable industrial development in small cities and towns to increase their attractivity.

Background: A long-standing and still unresolved debate has developed on whether the historical fertility transition was caused by 'spacing' (increasing the time between births) or by stopping (terminating childbearing at younger ages). Moreover, there is little consensus about the relative importance of gender relations in effecting reproductive change. Objective: First, we wish to shed new light on the stopping versus spacing debate by applying a sequence analysis approach, allowing us to describe changes in complete childbearing trajectories. Second, we want to understand the association between gender relations, among other factors, and reproductive trajectories during the historical fertility decline. Methods: We use longitudinal data from GENLIAS, a dataset constructed from linked civil registers of the province of Zeeland, the Netherlands, covering the period 1811‒1911. We employ cluster and sequence analysis to identify different types of childbearing trajectories and logistic regression to estimate their correlates. Results: We identified five often-experienced trajectories: two high-fertility traditional trajectories (differing in the length of the reproductive phase), a 'Stoppers' trajectory, a 'Late Starters' trajectory, and an 'Almost Childless' trajectory. Our results show that stopping was the way through which couples controlled their fertility during the early phase of the historical fertility transition in Zeeland, the Netherlands. Although couples with more egalitarian relationships had a higher likelihood to follow a Stoppers trajectory rather than the highest-fertility trajectory, stopping was most clearly linked to birth cohort and social class. Contribution: Our paper extends the literature on the process of the historical fertility decline and its determinants via a detailed empirical examination of childbearing trajectories and the conditions under which these trajectories took place. With our sequence analysis approach we add both substantively and methodologically to long-standing debates.

The work of Marika Jalovaara was funded by the Academy of Finland (decisions 275030, 321264, and 320162). The work by Hill Kulu was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council [ES/L01663X/1] under the Open Research Area Plus scheme. Background : Divorce and separation have become common life-course events in many European countries. Previous studies show that separated individuals are likely to move from homeownership to renting and to experience a period of residential instability. However, little is known about postseparation homeownership levels in the long run. Objective : This paper investigates homeownership levels after union dissolution. We extend previous research by examining changes in homeownership levels after separation by time (since union dissolution) and across population subgroups. We study whether and how postseparation homeownership levels are associated with repartnering and gender. Methods : We use Finnish register data and logistic regression analysis. Results : Compared to partnered individuals, homeownership levels among recently separated individuals are low. With increasing time since union dissolution, homeownership levels increase. However, the levels are high only among repartnered persons and remain low among separated individuals who remain single. Homeownership levels are slightly lower among separated women than among separated men. Contribution : The study shows the short- and long-term effects of separation on individuals’ housing careers. After separation many individuals move from homeownership to rental accommodation, and most previous renters continue to rent. Separated individuals who form new unions are likely to move or return to homeownership. By contrast, those who remain unpartnered following separation have a low likelihood of living in owner-occupied dwellings. This likely reflects both individuals’ choices and their constrained opportunities in a country with high homeownership aspirations and levels. Publisher PDF

Background: Maternal education-infant health gradients are flatter among foreign-born mothers than U.S.-born mothers; However, because common metrics of infant health are less predictive of infant mortality for some racial/ethnic and nativity groups, further study of maternal education-infant mortality gradients is necessary. Objective: We investigate whether maternal education-infant mortality gradients vary by race/ethnicity and nativity among infants born to mothers in the United States. Methods: We use data from the 1998‒2002 National Vital Statistics Birth Cohort Linked Birth/Infant Death Data published by the National Center for Health Statistics (N = 17,520,140) to estimate logistic regression models predicting infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality by race/ethnicity and nativity. Results: The negative associations between maternal education and infant mortality are stronger for US-born mothers than foreign-born mothers. Among both groups, Non-Hispanic whites have the highest returns to education and Non-Hispanic blacks have the lowest returns. While foreign-born mothers are less likely to have an infant die than their native-born counterparts, this advantage is largest at the lowest levels of education and converges at the highest levels of education . For most racial/ethnic groups, the maternal education-infant mortality gradient is steeper during the postneonatal period than during the neonatal period. Conclusions: The maternal education-infant mortality gradient varies substantially by the timing of infant death, race/ethnicity, and nativity. Contribution: This study extends the literature on nativity disparities in infant health by documenting how the maternal education-infant mortality gradient varies by nativity within racial/ethnic groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to produce these estimates.

Altres ajuts: German Research Foundation (VI 711/1-1)4) BACKGROUND: There is growing evidence that spatial mobility has an impact on and is driven by family dynamics and gender relations. In contexts where family diversity and complexity have increased and gender inequalities persist, it is particularly urgent that we advance our understanding of decisions regarding spatial mobility and of its patterns and outcomes, in relation to families and gender. CONTRIBUTION: This special collection highlights the importance of and presents novel findings on the interplay between spatial mobility, family dynamics, and gender relations. It unites new research perspectives that expand existing horizons with rigorous and innovative empirical studies. Contributions to this special collection deal with a number of underresearched areas that include, but are not restricted to, non-coresident family ties and gender differences in willingness to move, circular mobility patterns, and the nonlabour market outcomes of family migration. The insights contained in the articles in this collection not only clarify concrete associations but also offer roadmaps for revealing the mechanisms that explain them.

Background: Although kin marriage is widely practiced in the Middle East, its underlying motivations have not been thoroughly tested. Methods: We assess evidence for two economic rationales motivating kin unions using a national sample of Egyptians who wed between the 2006 and 2012 waves of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Surveys. The first rationale for kin marriage involves consolidating family property through the marriage of relatives; the second involves avoiding the costly outlays made when nonrelatives wed. Results: We find that respondents whose natal households owned agricultural land had higher relative risks of marrying a first cousin, and this relationship is significant for the overall sample and for men. Additionally, we find a positive association between value of natal household agricultural enterprise and marriage to a relative for men only. These findings provide limited evidence supporting the first rationale. For the second rationale, we find that women who wed relatives, reported lower bride's side matrimonial expenditures and lower deferred dower values. However, women who wed first cousins reported higher prompt dower values, indicating mixed support for the second rationale. Contribution: This study uses nationally representative longitudinal data with proper temporal ordering of key variables to statistically test two motivations for kin marriage. This analysis is carried out for Egypt, the most populous country of the world region containing some of the highest rates of kin marriage. Our results call into question two common assumptions about the economic rationales motivating kin marriage. We offer explanations for these unexpected findings in our conclusions.

Background: Despite an increase in scholarly and policy interest regarding the impacts of environmental change on migration, empirical knowledge in the field remains varied, patchy, and limited. Generalised discourse on environmental migration frequently oversimplifies the complex channels through which environmental change influences the migration process Objective: This paper aims to systematise the existing empirical evidence on migration influenced by environmental change with a focus on Africa, the continent most vulnerable to climate change. Methods: We select 53 qualitative and quantitative studies on the influence of environmental change on migration from the comprehensive Climig database and systematically analyse the literature considering the multidimensional drivers of migration. Results: Environmental change influences migration in Africa in an indirect way by affecting other drivers of migration, including sociodemographic, economic, and political factors. How and in what direction environmental change influences migration depends on socioeconomic and geographical contexts, demographic characteristics, and the type and duration of migration. Conclusions: The contextually contingent nature of migration-environment relationships prevents us from drawing a universal conclusion, whether environmental change will increase or suppress migration in Africa. However, this study unravels the complex interactions between the nature and duration of the environmental pressure, the livelihood of the populations, the role of kinship ties and the role of demographic differentials on migration response. Contribution: The review provides an initial systematic and comprehensive summary of empirical evidence on the environmental drivers of migration in Africa. It also discusses the implications of the scale, materials, and methods used in the 53 studies.

Background: The growing relevance of migration in the policy agenda of both host and sending countries asks for a better understanding of factors shaping migration processes. This paper analyzes recent trends of increasing asylum applications and refugee stocks and examines the influence of conflicts, as well as political and economic factors, as primary push and pull factors. Objective: The main aim is to empirically investigate the relationship that armed conflicts have with first-time asylum applications and refugee stocks in and outside Europe. Methods: We explore different measures that capture the severity and geographical spread of armed conflicts and link them to the dependent variables by fitting a gravity model. Results: The intensity of the conflict and where the fighting is taking place explain an essential portion of the variation in flows of asylum applications and stocks of refugees. Results suggest that people flee terror and war but also violence and insecurity emerging from non-conflict-affected areas and perpetrated by different criminal actors. Results also show that economic conditions, the presence of previous migrant communities in the destination country, distance, and presence of a common language between the origin and destination countries are relevant drivers of new asylum applications. Higher rates of asylum recognition by host countries act as an important pull factor, positively correlated with receiving additional new asylum claims. Contribution: This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the determinants of international forced migration by empirically examining the latest bilateral migration data and the associations with armed conflict and growing forms of organized violence in the origin countries.

Background: Subnational population forecasts form a key input to many significant investment and planning decisions, but these forecasts are often subject to considerable amounts of uncertainty, even in the short run. This uncertainty is rarely quantified at the subnational scale, and little attention has been given to how uncertainty can be effectively communicated to users. Objective: We wished to find out if users of subnational population forecasts want to know about forecast uncertainty, their understanding of uncertainty, and their views on various methods of communicating it. Methods: An online survey of users of population forecasts in Australia was undertaken, followed by focus groups to permit in-depth discussions of forecasting and uncertainty topics. Results: Nine out of ten survey respondents wanted uncertainty information. The majority also understood basic uncertainty concepts, although about one-third did not currently use any uncertainty information. Several demographic terms for populations and uncertainty were found to be confusing to users. Conclusions: Discovering that uncertainty information is desired by most users is an encouraging finding. Further work is required to create fully developed models for doing so. Learning how users interpret various means of expressing uncertainty helps in designing more effective communication tools. Contribution: The paper makes an original contribution to the forecast uncertainty literature through its focus on forecast users. We present the results of a recent survey and focus groups of subnational population forecast users in Australia which asked for their views on forecast uncertainty.

Background: In most developed countries the demographic regime is characterised by low fertility, high immigration, and population ageing. This regime impacts on the size of the labour force population, the ethno-cultural composition, and potential productivity. Objective: We examine the prospective impacts of two sociodemographic changes, namely increasing education and increasing immigration levels, on the size and skills of the workforce aged 25 to 64 years old for the time period 2011-2061. Methods: We use microsimulation models to project the population of Austria and Canada by age, sex, and several other socioeconomic and ethno-cultural dimensions. Using 'what-if' scenarios, we measure the impact of different immigration rates and immigrant selection patterns on the size and average literacy skills of the projected workforce. We also examine the potential effects of different assumptions about future educational attainment on the projection outcomes. Results: The results show that the volume of immigration heavily influences the expansion of the workforce .In terms of education among the general population, the rise in educational attainment is positively correlated with higher skill levels. However, increased immigration can override the effect that increasing education levels have on advancing workforce skills. Contribution: This paper shows the extent to which Austria and Canada have adopted diametrically opposed strategies regarding the future development of their workforces. Assuming that current policy goals hold true in the coming decades, Austria is likely to rely on a higher-skilled but declining (in size) workforce, whereas Canada will rely on a fast-growing but less-skilled and more culturally diversified workforce.

Background: Over the past few decades, the United States has experienced a dramatic rise in the number of multiracial individuals. The health of this population is vastly understudied because most population-based health surveys do not adequately identify multiracial individuals. Objective: We compare the health of black/white biracial children with that of single-race white and black children and assess the extent to which differences in characteristics of parents who select into the distinct unions and children's socioeconomic backgrounds explain the observed differences. Methods: Using information about the race of coresident mothers and fathers, we classify children into four racial groups - single-race whites (WW), biracial children with white mothers and black fathers (WB), biracial children with black mothers and white fathers (BW), and single-race blacks (BB). We estimate logistic regression models to document variations in rates of poor overall health and disability by children's racial background. Results: WW children are less likely than BB children to have poor overall health, but more likely to be diagnosed with a disability. WB children are less likely than BB children, but more likely than WW children, to have poorer health. The disability rates of WB children are similar to those of BB children. Selection and socioeconomic differences explain some of the differences in poor overall health, but suppress differences in disability, between WB and WW children. Contribution: This study underscores the importance of considering both maternal and paternal race when studying racial disparities in child health.

Background: Within the context of increasing migration flows and persisting low fertility rates in more developed areas, focus has been placed on the impact of migration on the fertility of receiving countries. Objective: The paper examines the effect of migration on the fertility of selected European countries, the United States, and Australia for the 2009-2015 period. Methods: We provide methodological insights and evidence derived from comparisons of estimates of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and total fertility rates (TFRs) of native-born or foreign-born women, or female citizens or noncitizens. Results: The results show that although the United States and Australia are seen as model countries of migration, the contribution of migrants to the levels and trends in the TFR and in the total number of births in these countries seems to be less significant than in some European countries. Our results also show that differences in the overall TFRs of the United States and selected European countries are driven more by the differences in the TFRs of native-born women than by the net effect of migration. Conclusions: Our study suggests that the impact of migration on fertility is a multifaceted issue, going far beyond the commonly used net effect of migration on increases in a country's TFR. Contribution: The topics tackled in the paper are potentially interesting and under-researched in particular in the context of the recent increase in immigration flows and the persisting low fertility in Europe and the USA.

Background: Interregional job offers are an important mechanism of social mobility as they provide both career chances and opportunities to avoid unemployment. We know from the literature that couples have difficulties seizing these opportunities due to the unequal distribution of costs and benefits between partners. Consequently, couples generally show a lower willingness to move for a job offer for one of the partners. However, very little is known about the differences between men and women in assessing the attractiveness of a job-related household move. Objective: Focusing on all cohabitating couples, we address whether there are gender differences in willingness to move for a better job offer and how those differences can be explained. Methods: We employ a large household survey from Germany that includes a factorial survey experiment addressing willingness to move for a hypothetical job offer. Results: We find that (a) within couples, women show a lower willingness to move than men, but single women do not differ from single men; (b) variables resulting from standard theories on mobility contribute to the explanation of willingness to move; and (c) gender differences persist even after controlling for these variables. Conclusions: Women show a lower willingness to move for a job when they are living with a partner in a household, and this cannot be sufficiently explained by standard theories of household and family migration. Only gender norms contribute significantly to the explanation of these differences between sexes. Consequently, women are disadvantaged when considering interregional job offers Contribution: Our findings reveal that interregional job offers contribute to gender inequality by hampering the career options of coupled women. A comparison with early results from the United States reveals that this seems to be a general pattern that cannot be explained by standard household migration theories.

Objective: This study seeks to determine whether the likelihood of first-marriage divorce among a cohort of women who have been adults during the years of the US 'divorce plateau' matches the level implied by period rates of first-marriage divorce during those years. Methods: I use marital histories for women in the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) to examine the current status of their first marriages and also carry out a survival analysis that takes into account right censoring and the competing risks of death and widowhood. Results: It is likely that at least half of the first marriages of the women in the NLSY79 sample have already ended in divorce, a level notably higher than those implied by analyses based on period rates. Contribution: This is the first study to examine the marital histories of a cohort US women who are now in their late 50s and the first to show a level of first-marriage divorce exceeding 50Š. It also suggests that the pattern of change in US age-specific divorce rates over that past four decades accounts for the higher than expected level of first-marriage divorce shown by the NLSY79 women.

Background: To date, several countries have documented changes over time in the pattern of seasonal fluctuations of births. Differences in these changes between countries allow us to better understand the social and economic factors determining birth seasonality. Objective: The aim of the present study is to explore birth seasonality in Poland over a period of 110 years. Methods: The study was conducted using the birth dates of 48,090,100 Polish citizens born in the years 1900-2009 and registered in the General Electronic System for Registration of the Population. I transformed the data into monthly time series of births, normalized the monthly birth rates for the unequal duration of months and years, and detrended by taking them to the centred 12-month average. Finally, I estimated seasonality patterns for particular decades by means of least squares regression on the harmonic model. Results: As many as three, relatively stable seasonal birth patterns occurred in Poland in the studied period. In 20th century Europe, the first one (1900-1919), characterised by a minimum birth rate in June, had previously only been observed in Italy. The second pattern with the spring peak and local peak in September remained almost unchanged in Poland for the longest time (1950-1979). Then, within a decade, it transformed into a new, third pattern (1990-2009), with peaks in July and September. Contribution: This article is the first to document in detail the changes in birth seasonality in Poland over a period of 110 years.

Background: Recently it has been claimed that gender equality and gender equity in the family tend to increase fertility. The strength of this association, however, depends on prevailing gender relations and the level of social support of employment and family within a society. Objective: We wish to improve our understanding of the relationship between gender equality, gender equity, and fertility by investigating the impact of the actual division of paid and unpaid labor on first- and second-birth fertility in Germany while including in our analyses a repeatedly measured indicator of gender equity that captures the subjective perception of fairness of this division. Methods: Using nine waves of the German Family Panel (pairfam), we apply discrete-time logistic regression models to cohorts of young women and men in coresidential unions to determine whether a birth occurs in a given year while using measures of gender equality and gender equity as lagged time-varying covariates. Results: We find that an arrangement in which the woman is in charge of routine housework and the division of paid and unpaid work is perceived as fair is positively associated with family formation. The perception of a fair division of work is no prerequisite for continued childbearing. Yet women's responsibility for domestic work facilitates family extension. Contribution: This paper extends the literature on the relationship between gender equality, gender equity, and family outcomes by using prospective panel data to capture attitudinal and behavioral changes over the life course more fully than has previously been done.

Background: Despite emerging evidence of a delay of migration to older ages, few studies have considered its impact on overall migration levels. Objective: This paper argues that there are two possible implications of delayed migration on overall migration levels: (1) a tempo effect leading to a temporary underestimation of the level of migration in the observed period data and (2) a migration ageing effect leading to a reduction of higher-order moves because the exposure to migration is shifted to older ages when the probability of moving is lower. Methods: Combining hypothetical scenarios with empirical evidence from a range of countries in Europe, North America, Australia, and China, the paper demonstrates the relevance of tempo and ageing effects to migration analysis and proposes a framework for conceptualising these processes. Results: Our analysis suggests that both tempo and ageing effects are likely to occur if the general trend is towards later ages at migration. We show, however, that all-move data such as those collected in censuses is not suitable to analyse tempo effects because changes in migration behaviour are order specific. Drawing on retrospective survey data, we show that in 25 of 26 European countries considered in this paper, individuals who are late in leaving the parental home are less likely to progress to the second move and, as a result, report a lower number of migrations in adulthood than early movers. Contribution: The results underline the need to collect and analyse migration data by move order to understand migration trends while highlighting the paucity of such data.

Background: When analysing effects of maternal age on child outcomes, many researchers estimate sibling models to control for unobserved factors shared between siblings. Some have included birth year in these models, as it is linked to maternal age and may also have independent effects. However, this creates a linear-dependence problem. Objective: One aim is to illustrate how misleading the results may actually be when attempts are made to separate effects of maternal age and birth year in a sibling analysis. Another goal is to present and discuss the multilevel-multiprocess model as an alternative. Methods: Infant mortality was chosen as the outcome. Births and infant deaths were simulated from a multilevel-multiprocess model that included two equations for fertility, with a joint random effect, and one equation for infant mortality, with another random effect. The two random effects were set to be correlated. The effects of the independent variables were taken from simpler models estimated from register data. Various sibling models and multilevel-multiprocess models were estimated from these simulated births and deaths. In some simulations, two standard assumptions about the random effects were intentionally violated. Contribution: The paper illustrates how problematic it is to include both maternal age and birth year in a sibling model. Also, if only maternal age is included, but along with other reproductive variables, small categories should be used. It is argued that a multilevel-multiprocess model may be used instead to separate effects of maternal age and birth year, but this approach also has limitations, which are discussed.

Background: The county-to-county migration data of the Internal Revenue Service's (IRS) is an incredible resource for understanding migration in the United States. Produced annually since 1990 in conjunction with the US Census Bureau, the IRS migration data represents 95Š to 98Š of the tax-filing universe and their dependents, making the IRS migration data one of the largest sources of migration data. However, any analysis using the IRS migration data must process at least seven legacy formats of this public data across more than 2000 data files - a serious burden for migration scholars. Objective: To produce a single, flat data file containing complete county-to-county IRS migration flow data and to make the computer code to process the migration data freely available. Methods: This paper uses R to process more than 2,000 IRS migration files into a single, flat data file for use in migration research. Contribution: To encourage and facilitate the use of this data, we provide a single, standardized, flat data file containing county-to-county one-year migration flows for the period 1990-2010 (containing 163,883 dyadic county pairs resulting in 3.2 million county-year observations totaling over 343 million migrants) and provide the full R script to download, process, and flatten the IRS migration data.

Altres ajuts: German Research Foundation-DFG (Grant number: VI711/1-1) BACKGROUND Residential relocations of couple households are associated with increases in objective gender inequality within families in paid and unpaid work. Little is known about how couples' relocations affect subjective outcomes such as attitudes. OBJECTIVE We examine whether gender role attitudes change when families move residentially in Britain, empirically addressing potential explanations. We also assess heterogeneity in outcomes by relocation distance and relocation motive. METHOD We use linear fixed-effects regression on a representative sample of 6,415 partnered women and 6,220 partnered men from the British Household Panel Survey (1991- 2007). RESULTS Our results show that, on average, an individual's gender role attitudes were not significantly altered following a couple's relocation. As an exception, we find that when couples exclusively relocated for the female partner's job, men's gender role attitudes became more egalitarian post-relocation. Preliminary evidence also suggests that women'sgender role attitudes are potentially affected by their exposure to residential contexts. CONTRIBUTION Despite widespread evidence regarding increases in objective gender inequality following couple relocations in Britain, our findings suggest that this does not permeate into subjective outcomes such as attitudes. Beyond expanding the knowledge on subjective sources of gender inequality that follow couples' relocations, our results also contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of change in gender role attitudes over the life course.

BACKGROUNDIt is often assumed that long-distance migration is dominated by employment or educationally led motives and that local-scale mobility is linked to family and housing adjustments. Unfortunately, few empirical studies examining the relationship between motives and distance exist.OBJECTIVERecognising that the relationships between migration motives and distances are likely to be context-specific, we explore and compare the relationship in three advanced economies: the United Kingdom, Australia, and Sweden.METHODSWe use three sources of nationally representative microdata: the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) (2009-2018); the Australian Household, Income and Labour Dynamics (HILDA) survey (2001-2016); and a Swedish survey of motives undertaken in spring 2007. LOESS smooth curves are presented for each of six distance-motive trends (Area, Education, Employment, Family, Housing, and Other) in the three countries.RESULTSThe patterns offer some support to the common assumptions. In all three countries, housing is the most commonly cited motive to move locally. Employment is an important motive for longer-distance migration. Yet, interestingly, and consistent across the three national contexts, family-related considerations are shown to be key in motivating both shorter-and longer-distance moves.CONTRIBUTIONOur analysis demonstrates how people move for different reasons, across different distances, in different national contexts. While typically associated with local-scale relocations, family-related motives are rarely mentioned in literature focused on longer-distance migration. The role of family in long-distance migration would thus appear to warrant far more attention than it currently receives.

Background: Southern Europe experienced large-scale migration in the recent decades. Compared to regions with a longer migration history, the assimilation and socialization processes of family formation and age of childbearing for young adults of migrant background is underexplored. Spain, in particular, is now home to a burgeoning second generation of which little is known. Objective: This study explores the family living arrangements of Moroccans in Spain by migrant generation and time, using census microdata from the Integrated Public-Use Microdata Series International (IPUMS-i) and the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). We examine the living arrangements as an estimate for family processes for young adults of Moroccan origin between ages 20 to 34 separately by sex. Methods: Taking a cross-national perspective, we examine the level of coresidence with parent(s), spouse, and child(ren) for young adults aged 20 to 34 in three groups - Moroccans in Spain, nonmigrants in Morocco, and nonmigrants in Spain - using binomial logistic regression. Results: Results show that 1.5 and second generation Moroccan women transition into adulthood at younger ages than their Spanish counterparts, except for the ones who are highly educated. The differences in living arrangements between Moroccans in Spain and the nonmigrant Spanish population widened between 2001 to 2011, possibly due to the fact that coresidence with kin is subject to the influence of migrant stock flow. Contribution: We incorporated a region-of-origin approach in combination with classical assimilation and socialization theories to study migrant family processes in Spain by using living arrangement as a proxy.

Background: This contribution analyzes gender-specific effects of long-distance commuting and residential relocation on the social integration of couples. Research on geographical mobility in the partnership context focused very much on gender differences of regional mobility with respect to labor market outcomes and economic success. The effects of regional mobility and their possibly gendered impact on social networks and the social integration of households have been understudied. However, one would expect that regional mobility imposes severe temporal and geographical restrictions on the formation and upholding of social relationships. Moreover, these restrictions can be assumed to differ by gender due to differential involvement of women and men in market and domestic care work, which also present different opportunities and constraints for maintaining and forming social contacts. Objective: Against this background we analyze the effects of internal migration and job-related commuting on couples' social relationships. Methods: The analysis is based on the British Household Panel Study (BHPS) waves 1997-2008. We first give extensive descriptive overview on the social structure of mobile couples and the amount and perceived quality of social contacts men and women maintain. Second the effects on quality (i.e., the satisfaction with one's social life) are analyzed within a panel fixed-effects framework. Results: Results indicate that regional mobility affects women more than men. In particular women who move for her partner's job prospects suffer losses in perceived quality of social life. Female commuters are dissatisfied if they have low qualification and are only weakly integrated in the labor market. Among male commuters time restrictions due to high workload are detrimental to their social life. Contribution: This contribution gives new insights on gender-specific dynamics of commuting and relocation and their gendered impact on social integration.

Background: This paper studies whether new family patterns fostered inequality of educational opportunities in upper-secondary education in Italy. Objective: To analyse the association between children's educational outcomes and a wide range of family arrangements, including the time of exposure to marriage (never married, married before or after the birth). Empirical analyses also consider whether these demographic characteristics of the origin family more strongly affect children from more or less well-off families, and whether these effects change when different educational outcomes are considered. Methods: Analyses are based on the Italian Labour Force Survey (2005-2014) and apply Linear Probability Models on a sample of 123,045 children aged 15 and 16. Results: Children living in single-parent households or with two cohabiting biological parents have worse educational outcomes compared to children of two married biological parents. Children of highly educated parents are more penalized if access to the most prestigious academic track is considered, whereas the penalty is stronger among children of low-educated parents if the risk of not being enrolled in upper-secondary schools that give access to university is analysed. Finally, the analysis of the exposure to marriage suggests that social selectivity may drive the negative effects of cohabitation. Contribution: Results provide limited support to the argument that new family patterns increase social inequalities. Living in 'nonstandard' family arrangements does worsen children's educational outcomes, but substantial heterogeneity in their effects has been found, depending on the combination between social background and the educational outcome considered.